Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[davidbfpo]

A previously unheard of website, so maybe some caution. Their explanation for the data presented:

Vocativ has discovered, collated and tabulated the available data from monthly reports posted in various online forums affiliated with ISIS. The reports detail every ISIS attack in chronological order (see embed below). The ISIS reports were published by what the organization calls its “media ministry.” These reports were provided only in Arabic, which suggests ISIS wasn’t targeting them for Western exposure, but rather to spread news of its achievements throughout the Arabic-speaking world to would-be recruits and supporters. It should also be noted that, as ISIS generated the reports, not all details can be corroborated. Regardless, the organization’s data provides a detailed picture of how ISIS views itself and what its shifting priorities are in the battlefield.

Link:http://www.vocativ.com/world/iraq-wo...ge=all#!bHpDun

[JWing]

I just published an interview with RAND's Ali Nader on what Iran's policy towards Iraq is. I just talked about how Iran is mobilizing its militia allies, and flying in weapons and advisers, in the interview I tried to find out what Tehran's overall goals are in Iraq. Here's a link.

[davidbfpo]

A short, detailed article based on an interview of Professor John Horgan, a British psychologist now @ UMass-Lowell:http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2014/08...-recruits.html

A key point:

They’re offering an opportunity for people to feel powerful. They’re making disillusioned, disaffected radicals feel like they’re doing something truly meaningful with their lives.

Are we and others ready for this?

Disillusionment is very, very common in every single terrorist and extremist group you can think of. That’s something that can be very toxic if those accounts get out and gather momentum.

Disillusionment is the most common reason why people voluntarily choose to walk away from a terrorist group. People become disillusioned if they feel that the group has gone too far, if they don’t seem to have a strategy beyond indiscriminate killing. Disillusionment can arise from disagreements with a leader, it can arise from dissatisfaction with the day-to-day minutiae. There are many directions from which disillusionment can arise, and it’s only a matter of time before those accounts leak out from ISIS, and I think we would do very well to be on the lookout for those kinds of accounts, because they offer an opportunity to dissuade further potential recruits from being involved.

[OUTLAW 09]

Has anyone seen and or read a coherent explanation of what the current US strategy is for both Iraq and Syria needless to say the IS outside bombing, sending SOF as advisors, sending aid/weapons to the Kurds, calling for an "inclusive" government which is to late, and calling for a summit of the five UNSC members on terrorism in DC?

[Dayuhan]

Has anyone seen and or read a coherent explanation of what the current US strategy is for both Iraq and Syria

It looks to me something like "do enough to look involved, not enough to be committed".

This is not ideal, but given that the US is not in a position to dictate outcomes, I'm not sure what the better options are.

[davidbfpo]

A short article from The Guardian, best explained by the writer's bio:

Ali Khedery is chairman and chief executive of Dragoman Partners, a strategic consultancy. He served as special assistant to five American ambassadors in Iraq and as senior adviser to three heads of US Central Command from 2003-10. He was the longest continuously serving American official in Iraq.

He ends with:

As world leaders now consider a military campaign to confront Isis, they should remember the lessons of America's costly and largely fruitless engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam. They should understand that no amount of foreign military power can ever make up for the misrule of corrupt, failed governments like those in Damascus, Baghdad, Kabul or Saigon. Unless they want a regional holy war, leaders should especially discount the advice of some who are now calling for an alliance with Assad's genocidal regime – perhaps the single greatest root cause of Isis's rise.

Instead, they should embrace the lessons of Iraq's Sunni tribal awakening, that only Syrian and Iraqi Sunnis can defeat radical militant Sunni entities like Isis. Likewise, they should understand that only the mullahs in Tehran can help quell radical militant Shia entities like Lebanon's Hezbollah, Assad's intelligence operatives or Iraq's militias.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...had?CMP=twt_gu

[OUTLAW 09]

For those who want to see how the IS drives the internet and social media to support the Salafists.

https://twitter.com/Dawla_NewsMedia?...71264835346432

I have been saying here we have to understand the IS battlefield tactics as that has greatly changed since AQI days.

Now look at these series of IS drone video photo coverage of ISF bases---they have really upped their recon/surveillance capabilities.

The #Islamic_State have been using drones to carry out mission planning and raids into enemy bases (Pic: Base 93):