Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[Dayuhan]

Careful now Steve or you will have Bill on your case (what with this criticism of US policy)... or, maybe its OK because you are a yank?

I don't mind having Bill on my case; we've disagreed many times before and always on reasonably congenial terms. I've been critical of US policy many times, and I thought the move on Iraq was a mistake from the start, not because Saddam didn't deserve it (he did) but because I didn't think the US could control the aftermath. I never believed that the US could successfully "install democracy", and said so repeatedly.

At this point... I could see the point in providing support to the Kurds, despite the problems with Turkey. I really don't see much point in US support for Maliki. I expect they will feel obligated to give some, probably with demands for reforms as a tradeoff, but I don't see that going anywhere. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I don't see much reason for optimism.

I think domestic politics will enable to install a benign dictator if we have credible civilian leaders that can make a case that is the best of all the bad options, and tie it to humanitarian reasons. The leader can add that we'll help Iraq set conditions for establishing democracy in time, but right now is not the right time since newly formed democracies are the most instable and most likely form of government to fail. Hard to stabilize a country that has suffered multiple years of sanctions, just finished a war with the U.S., and ethnic passions are rising by installing an unstable government.

I think the "benign dictator" option is no longer open. It might have been immediately after Saddam's fall, but with the dissolution of the old military and the incapacity of the new one, what's the "benign dictator" (oxymoron) going to use to establish control? Where do you find a dictator that we can pretend is benign who can also inspire the military to win and who will not be completely rejected out of hand by one or more of the major ethnic groups? I think that ship has sailed. Again, it's no longer about us, and any proposal like "we should divide Iraq" or "we should install a benign dictator" has to recognize that. It's no longer our choice. We had our opportunity, selected an unachievable goal, and blew it. We don't get another shot... unless of course we re-invade and start over from square 1, and we all know that's not happening.

Furthermore while I agree we broke it, I don't the think the combat operations did that much harm to Iraq (the initial operations), what broke Iraq was our cowardly 10 plus years of sanctions that destroyed the local economy while making Saddam stronger. It isn't as simple as you make it out to be.

I don't think it's about the combat operations or the sanctions. Combat damage can be repaired and an economy can grow back to health with outside assistance and stable governance. I think the mistake was our Quixotic pursuit of a form of government that Americans could accept as "supporting democracy" but which was simply not suitable for the realities of post-Saddam Iraq.