Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[carl]

If true, and it is always a big IF, then it appear that the U.S. and its partners are dealing with Iraq appropriately and the call for more U.S. intervention sooner will be seen as hyperbole. In my opinion you have to set the political conditions for what will follow the military action, or you end up like we did in Afghanistan (understandable) and Iraq 2003 (inexcusable).

To give anyone credit that this was their intention is probably a stretch, and most likely the cards just fell in place, but there is seldom any merit to rushing in if there isn't an immediate threat. Rush in to do what? Then what?

It is well to remember that the Sunni tribes tried several times to rid themselves of AQI and were unable to do it until an arrangement was made whereby they were backed up by the US military, then the two working together were able to do quite well. The important thing though is they couldn't do it on their own, they needed us. In the article David linked to they are basically saying exactly the same thing, they can do it but not by themselves.

The real chilling thing about the article is the statement that something has to be done about the IS fast because the ideology is hugely appealing to Muslim young men throughout the world and that appeal is growing extremely fast.

[ganulv]

It is well to remember that the Sunni tribes tried several times to rid themselves of AQI and were unable to do it until an arrangement was made whereby they were backed up by the US military, then the two working together were able to do quite well. The important thing though is they couldn't do it on their own, they needed us. In the article David linked to they are basically saying exactly the same thing, they can do it but not by themselves.

The U.S. was the sheriff back then, though. I hear what you’re saying, but I would think the social and political dynamics are so different at this point that that would be an apples and oranges comparison.

[JWing]

I just interviewed Christine van den Toorn who has been doing some great reporting for Iraq Oil Report and the Daily Beast in Ninewa. I talked with her about what happened with the Yazidis in Sinjar. They were at first co-opted by the Kurdish parties, then abandoned by them when IS attacked, only to be rescued by Syria's YPG. Now they want out of Iraq. Here's a link.

[OUTLAW 09]

Joel---heads up about this article that is being reported in the Daily Beast:

US and German Special Forces fighting in Iraq---first at Mosul and then other locations.
It will if true cause a major turmoil in Germany who has repeatedly stated no German troops inside Iraq.

Would also tend to counter Obama's statements as well.

Stuck out in the open with no clear sense of what was occurring in the battle that required us to be stopped, we made contact with high-level Peshmerga ministries, both in Erbil and on the ground in Zumar. “Yes, we want to let you in, but we can’t,” said one high-level Kurdish government official. “We have visitors, you’ll see them,” he stated. As we tried to decipher his cryptic response our answer came: multiple armored Toyotas swept down the mountain, passing within feet of us. The Toyotas were packed with what appeared to be bearded Western Special Operations Forces. I watched the trucks pass and saw for myself the crews inside them. They didn’t wear any identifying insignia but they were visibly Western and appeared to match all the visual characteristics of American special operations soldiers.

Contacts in the Kurdish intelligence service and Peshmerga leadership confirmed what we saw. “Yes,” one commander replied to our questions. “German and American forces are on the ground here. “They are helping to support us in the attack.”

“There are no U.S. troops on the ground in or around Zumar.” The Pentagon told The Daily Beast on Monday night. Captain Rick Haupt, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which has control over military operations in the Middle East, denied that U.S. troops were involved in the fighting but confirmed U.S. aircraft “performed one strike destroying several vehicles in the vicinity of Zumar” on Monday.

Kurdish officials told The Daily Beast a different story. Ranking members of the Kurdish military and intelligence service said that one team of U.S. Special Operations was on the ground in Zumar along with several German counterparts, working in conjunction with Peshmerga units. According to the Kurdish sources, U.S. and German special operations teams had taken up positions in Zumar that allowed them to coordinate with U.S. aircraft.

If American troops were active in the fighting in Zumar, as they appeared to be on Monday, and as Kurdish officials stated, it would mark a significant break with U.S. official policy. Even as President Obama has avoided getting the military more involved in Iraq, the mission has gradually expanded. U.S. airstrikes began as a policy to break the siege on Yazidis and prevent ISIS from attacking Americans in Erbil but have grown to “support Iraqi security forces and Kurdish defense forces” in their fight against ISIS.

[CrowBat]

In relation to supposed deployment of German special forces there....

I would not take such statements literally, or at least take them - but with a pinch of salt.

Germany agreed to deliver assault rifles, anti-rank 'rockets' (i.e. missiles or similar) and ammo to Iraqi Kurds, and to train them in the use of these - 'whether in situ or at a suitable place abroad'. That means: 'sure', German SF are there, but not with the purpose of getting involved in combat operations. They're there to train Kurds in use of German-supplied arms.

Namely, doing something like secretly deploying German SF into combat in Iraq, would be a political suicide for any German chancellor. And Angela is really not renowned for committing these 'all the times' (if at all, then quite on the contrary).

[OUTLAW 09]

In relation to supposed deployment of German special forces there....

I would not take such statements literally, or at least take them - but with a pinch of salt.

Germany agreed to deliver assault rifles, anti-rank 'rockets' (i.e. missiles or similar) and ammo to Iraqi Kurds, and to train them in the use of these - 'whether in situ or at a suitable place abroad'. That means: 'sure', German SF are there, but not with the purpose of getting involved in combat operations. They're there to train Kurds in use of German-supplied arms.

Namely, doing something like secretly deploying German SF into combat in Iraq, would be a political suicide for any German chancellor. And Angela is really not renowned for committing these 'all the times' (if at all, then quite on the contrary).

By the way the German SF were there long before any weapons shipping was approved and you do know how closely Us and German SF have been working together over the last years right--especially at the International SF Training Center here in Germany?

[JWing]

Latest security report on Iraq breaking down violence for August. Was a decided dip in reported attacks but casualties remained extremely high due to IS massacres and a report on Peshmerga losses in Ninewa. Actual numbers are probably far far higher as govt has stopped reporting on ISF & peshmerga losses. When they do come out they are always high. Here's a link to the article.

[CrowBat]

By the way the German SF were there long before any weapons shipping was approved and you do know how closely Us and German SF have been working together over the last years right--especially at the International SF Training Center here in Germany?

I know about cooperation, but about their deployment in Iraq 'long before'.... one is left to hope that the Bundestag has authorized this.

Otherwise, not only the SPD is going to rip Angela & Co apart...

[carl]

I just interviewed Christine van den Toorn who has been doing some great reporting for Iraq Oil Report and the Daily Beast in Ninewa. I talked with her about what happened with the Yazidis in Sinjar. They were at first co-opted by the Kurdish parties, then abandoned by them when IS attacked, only to be rescued by Syria's YPG. Now they want out of Iraq. Here's a link.

In reference to the interview, to what extent has the IS re-instituted slavery and who are they enslaving mostly?

[JWing]

Hi Carl,

Reports are that IS is selling Yazidi women that it captured in Sinjar in Mosul. Have not heard them do that to any other group. Likely result of their extreme prejudice against Yazidis as a religion. Even more despised then Shia and considered devil worshipers. Actually many have a negative view of Yazidis, even Kurds who claim them as their own.

[JWing]

Outlaw, here's something you'll probably be interested in. Interview with a member of the Islamic Army of Iraq. Here's a link.

[carl]

The U.S. was the sheriff back then, though. I hear what you’re saying, but I would think the social and political dynamics are so different at this point that that would be an apples and oranges comparison.

Perhaps, but the main point is they needed powerful backup. They could not do it on their own. Now, they are not any stronger than back then and the IS is very, very much stronger that AQI ever was. And, if I read the article right, the people interviewed basically asked for our help again.