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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    When you do the interview, could you please ask what economic system they are using for major services like electricity, gas, and water? Is it a socialist style system where the local population is dependent on the ad hoc ISIL government to pay for and provide the services or is it a free market system where those services are provided by private entrepreneurs.

    Also if you could ask if the government system is clearly a theocracy or if it has fascist leanings (militaristic system with a centralized economy and a constant enemy who must be attacked)?
    There is here in Berlin a well known Sunni researcher on one of the universities that just released in German a book on the Salafi and Takfiri direction of Islam where he used the word to sum it up--Islamic fascism and the dirt hit the fan and he is under death threats and police protection.

    But if one takes the definition of fascism he might not be so wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    The problems ISIL will have in governing deal not only with the normal logitstics of a state, but different interpretations of Salafist political thought:
    Zarqawi was a Takfirist and basically ISIS is Takfiri not Salafist--a big difference---that is why the ISIS is able to kill Sunni Awakening members by declaring them first non Muslims/enemies of Islam. Takfirists are the only ones who can kill a fellow Muslim and not be considered for punishment under the Koran.

    The Sunni/Kurdish group Ansar al Sunnah was Salafist as where a number of other Sunni insurgent groups as well as several in Syria---that is why the "political differences" that break into the open at times. And some had a mix of Salafist and secular members.

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    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Thanks. I did not think Al Bagdhadi claimed to be a Takfiri, although I knew he claimed to be a Salafist, although I understand the distinction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    There is here in Berlin a well known Sunni researcher on one of the universities that just released in German a book on the Salafi and Takfiri direction of Islam where he used the word to sum it up--Islamic fascism and the dirt hit the fan and he is under death threats and police protection.

    But if one takes the definition of fascism he might not be so wrong.
    From the little I can garner it seems to be built on a militaristic Fascist type system. I can't really tell how their economy works, although my guess is that there is a central funding system that "owns" everything in the name of Allah, similar to a fascist state economy.

    These systems can only exist as long as they have a enemy. That would not be hard, since it seems the world is their enemy. Still, they require gains from military victories to fund their operations, at least in the short term. On that front they seem to be doing OK. I will wait to see what else I can dig up.

    Thanks for the information.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 06-17-2014 at 01:29 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    So we went to war for WMD which was none, we fought then AQI who evidently survived well, and we fought hard with a surge to end the ethnic cleansing which was largely driven by the Shia/Iran/Malaki, then we allowed military personnel to be killed by EFPs coming in large numbers from the Quds Force/Iranian Intelligence to now do a deal with the Shia which will be perceived by the Sunni to be American driven ethnic cleansing of Sunni that will drive more into the camp of the ISIS which will turn cause the US/global public at large more grief?

    Does that all make sense to you and it has nothing to do with WW2--it has to do with 2014.

    4.6KIAs and over 100K WIAs---so in the end who is responsible--civilian leadership and or military leadership and or both?

    Now explain the above to the average taxpayer and the families who lost members and we wonder why the world thinks we are dysfunctional?

    My concern is the perception that say talks we will be having with Iran concerning ISIS which is Sunni will promote even more violence if Hellfires start raining down fired by the US---and the sharing of ISR with a country that still declares the US Satan and wants us out of the ME and strengthens them as a regional hegemon--what do we get out of it?

    The current Iranian leader might be viewed as a moderate but he still does not have control over the hard right wing conservatives in government, the military and the universities and they really do not want us in the ME.

    So really in the end what do the talks get for us the US when even our key ally the KSA will go ballistic on the idea that the US is firing missiles at Sunni's regardless of political leanings--center, left, right meaning secular, Salafist and or Takfirist
    My point was simply that the winds of political leaning change. We hate someone today, tomorrow we may need to work with them. I think it is foolish and short sighted to believe that the U.S., or any government, really stands on principle.

    That said, I think the U.S. is making a mistake if we condition security assistance to Iraq on democratic reforms in the Maliki government. If they really want democracy to work they should divide the country into three parts where there is at least a minimum of traditional homogeneity. Then maybe power sharing among the tribes would be possible. The funny thing is that Maliki was headed in the only direction one can go in in a place like Iraq, strong man politics. He just never got a chance to consolidate his power. He probably would have been overthrown and executed by someone with more of a knack for such things once he got close to have dictatorial control. That is the way these things go.

    We will waste blood and treasure again and have the same chaos between the three parties to contend with when this is over unless we acknowledge that Iraq is not Kansas ToTo.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 06-17-2014 at 01:38 AM.
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    War on the Rocks 5 Questions with Ambassador James F. Jeffrey on ISIS and Iraq:

    ..., from Pakistan to Mali, it’s now obvious that within the Sunni Middle East when authority erodes, terrorists with an Al Qaeda philosophy will spring up and gain traction. Attempting to stem this by imposing Western institutions and ideals has failed miserably. This is a profoundly troubling phenomenon.
    While I would not limit this comment to the Sunni's, it should be clear that attempting to install western democracies is not the answer.
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    Does anyone know how trustworthy Al-Akhbar.com is?
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    When you do the interview, could you please ask what economic system they are using for major services like electricity, gas, and water? Is it a socialist style system where the local population is dependent on the ad hoc ISIL government to pay for and provide the services or is it a free market system where those services are provided by private entrepreneurs.

    Also if you could ask if the government system is clearly a theocracy or if it has fascist leanings (militaristic system with a centralized economy and a constant enemy who must be attacked)?
    Unfortunately I already did the interview so couldn't include those questions but those are very good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    From the little I can garner it seems to be built on a militaristic Fascist type system. I can't really tell how their economy works, although my guess is that there is a central funding system that "owns" everything in the name of Allah, similar to a fascist state economy.

    These systems can only exist as long as they have a enemy. That would not be hard, since it seems the world is their enemy. Still, they require gains from military victories to fund their operations, at least in the short term. On that front they seem to be doing OK. I will wait to see what else I can dig up.

    Thanks for the information.
    Your comments/questions show some insight that I tend to miss from some national pundits---if one wants to understand the funding flows look at the "pillars" of Islam and how the donations are calculated and what it is to be used for. Even the foreign donations coming from say KSA, Jordan, or Qatar---they view them as well under the "pillars" concept.

    When one "walks" the various jihadi sites the government is not far behind as it should be if done correctly. One though has to understand the jihadi's also know this thus a game is on concerning the attaching of a lot of different viruses from keystroke Trojans to pure outright viruses that are brutal to remove. There was an old GDR Stasi saying that is an example of this "private" war---the Stasi use to refer to their espionage efforts as "the war on the invisible front".

    If one wants a more thorough understanding just read the Snowdon artilcles.

    If say the NSA felt that the jihadi's were second rate when it comes to the internet---as early as mid 2006 they were chatting and placing in pdf manuals a particular secure chat US software program which was over the counter which was at a solid security level so they have for a long time fully understood our collection abilities. A number of the more interesting sites now have a invite only and secure floating logons which unless you are invited you will never get in---what is interesting is top Russian maifa stolen credit sites work the same way.

    So have a really strong virus program and scan every document two or more times.

    A good general site for "safe" downloads is jihadeology.net which offers a wide spread of jihadi groups to read about.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2014 at 06:38 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    That said, I think the U.S. is making a mistake if we condition security assistance to Iraq on democratic reforms in the Maliki government. If they really want democracy to work they should divide the country into three parts where there is at least a minimum of traditional homogeneity.
    I suspect that this is what they are in the process of doing right now. It's ugly, and I expect it will get uglier before it's done. It's also not in our control. I don't know that it ever was.

    Gen Petraeus asked in 2003 "tell me how this ends". I guess we're finding out... and I suspect that once we selected "installing Democracy" as an objective, this ending, or some variation on the theme, was pretty much inevitable.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    War on the Rocks 5 Questions with Ambassador James F. Jeffrey on ISIS and Iraq:

    While I would not limit this comment to the Sunni's, it should be clear that attempting to install western democracies is not the answer.
    Well said.

    One cannot superimpose on another one's own value system.

    That only will create conflicts.

    Imagine a hypothetical environment where there is a Muslim majority (as is feared in Europe) the Sharia is imposed on the Western world.

    Will that be accepted?

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    The mandate system has had long-lasting effects on the Middle East. Most of the borders of these modern Middle Eastern states were drawn almost arbitrarily by European powers in ways that would benefit themselves, rather than those who would be forced to live in the new states (Gelvin, 183). Although some effort was made to ensure that each of the new nations would be economically as well as politically viable, there were so many gross oversights that economic development and politically stability in the Middle East have been severely hampered. As a result, many of these boundaries are the subjects of long-standing conflicts. Several modern states continue to claim ancestral territories such as Iraq with Kuwait and Israel and Palestine with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

    The nation of Iraq was artificially created out of three former Ottoman provinces with wildly disparate ethnic and religious identities (Gelvin, 183). Since its establishment as a new monarchy in 1921, Iraq has been "notorious for its political stability" (Gelvin, 184). The Shiite majority of the country was, until very recently, ruled over by a Sunni minority. The Kurds, although mostly comprised of Sunnis, were an ethnic minority who would have preferred to govern themselves rather than be ruled by Arabs (Gelvin, 184). The British ignored these problems because of the many benefits they saw in having hegemony over the region: the oil-rich northern region would provide Britain with cheap oil; the fertile plains in the central region could be exploited as a breadbasket to feed England's most important colony, India; and by including access to the Persian Gulf, Britain could easily ship Iraq's natural resources. Incidentally, Britain established Iraq with a vacancy at its head, one which they quickly filled with Faysal, an ally that the British had recently betrayed and now badly needed to appease (Gelvin, 182).

    The area that now comprises Jordan, Israel, and the disputed Palestinian territory has been sub-divided several times since it fell to British control. Originally called "Palestine" by the League of Nations, it was later split by the British along the Jordan River into smaller territories called "Palestine" and "Jordan" so that the throne of the newly-created Jordan could be given to 'Abdallah, another disgruntled ally, as a political gesture of appeasement. Unfortunately, dividing the region along the natural boundary of the river may have made geographic sense but was an economic blunder, as it gave Jordan no natural economic resources. As such, it has never been able to stand on its own, depending on foreign subsidies to remain solvent (Gelvin, 183). Palestine, on the other hand, was given to the Zionists to become the new nation of Israel in 1948, a decision that is still the center of intense conflict 60 years later.

    Syria is perhaps the best example of the European mandatory powers riding roughshod over local opinion. Syria elected its own parliament following WWI to decide where its boundaries lay and which nation, if any, would be given mandatory powers over it. In 1919, the General Syrian Congress formally protested the decision of the League of Nations that Syria was "among the nations in their middle stage of development which stand in need of a mandatory power" (Khater, 201). However, the League of Nations placed Syria under the control of France, a decision that was unacceptable to Syria's leaders, and stripped away large amounts of territory claimed by Syria. France diminished Syria even further by splitting off what is now Lebanon, a region largely populated by Christians, so that they would have a Christian nation in the region to rely on (Gelvin, 181).
    http://voices.yahoo.com/the-mandate-...t-6429966.html
    The root of the issues?

    This is also interesting:

    Power and Promises: Redrawing the Boundaries of the Middle East
    http://historyproject.ucdavis.edu/le...omise_2011.pdf
    Last edited by Ray; 06-17-2014 at 09:49 AM.

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    The manner in which the Sunnis are spreading their tentacles by naked aggression and subtle soft power by spawning madrassas that churn out radicalism and terrorists, one wonders what is the role of Saudi Arabia.

    It is no secret that Saudi money has assisted in the increase of madrassas and mosques that subscribe to Wahhabi Islam in South Asia, Indonesia and Philippines.

    Saudis are the apple of the eye to many and so are they working below the radar scan and attempting domination of the Islamic world and thereafter calling the shots in the international arena?

    I maybe political incorrect, but I like to rise above the partisan clutter for which I maybe forgiven or corrected, if you will.

    What is happening around the world is deeply disturbing and does upset the otherwise status quo of live and let live.
    Last edited by Ray; 06-17-2014 at 10:14 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Does anyone know how trustworthy Al-Akhbar.com is?
    If you are referring to the online English newspaper al-akhbar then it is Iranian leaning with some saying not directly proven Iranian funding as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    If you are referring to the online English newspaper al-akhbar then it is Iranian leaning with some saying not directly proven Iranian funding as well.
    Thanks, It has a pretty detailed history of Al Baghdadi. If it is to be trusted then ISIL rapid advance into IRAQ is less a matter of military prowess and more a matter of home turf advantage. It was most of the key players old stomping grounds. His second in command is a former Iraq Army Officer. They knew who to trust and who not to.

    If accurate, then they will have trouble extending influence beyond that territory. I can't say how many Sunni's will follow them willingly - how much of the traditionally Sunni territory they can maintain. We will see.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Unfortunately I already did the interview so couldn't include those questions but those are very good.
    Oh well, thanks anyway.
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    My concern is the perception that say talks we will be having with Iran concerning ISIS which is Sunni will promote even more violence if Hellfires start raining down fired by the US---and the sharing of ISR with a country that still declares the US Satan and wants us out of the ME and strengthens them as a regional hegemon--what do we get out of it?

    The current Iranian leader might be viewed as a moderate but he still does not have control over the hard right wing conservatives in government, the military and the universities and they really do not want us in the ME.

    So really in the end what do the talks get for us the US when even our key ally the KSA will go ballistic on the idea that the US is firing missiles at Sunni's regardless of political leanings--center, left, right meaning secular, Salafist and or Takfirist
    I think this hits the matter on the head. There will be no solution to the current situation in Iraq and Syria that does not address the Sunni/Shi'a proxy civil war being waged by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Any potential U.S. action in Iraq must be assessed in this light.
    Last edited by Yadernye; 06-17-2014 at 01:58 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Yep. We'll see how we do in the 2016 election.
    It will not go well Carl... says me sitting far away from the US. Collectively the US electorate does not have the smarts to make an intelligence voting choice... as the world has learned from history.

    Two current matters to ponder. First in an earlier post we see how the guys who got it right didn't get elected and now we see the loser in the last election also got it right back in 2007:

    In 2007, Romney Predicted Current Events In Iraq So Accurately He Must Have Had A Time Machine

    Now the US is about to elect another failure to the highest office...

    I ask every American I run into who supports Hilary to list her achievements while at State or anywhere and... you guessed it... nothing.

    Not one success story which is a record to make her a sure fire winner in the next election. So for heavens sake stop trying to export the American version of democracy around the world... its already badly scewed up and don't need it to get any worse. Yes Carl its happening in our lifetime... the implosion of the USA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yadernye View Post
    I think this hits the matter on the head. There will be no solution to the current situation in Iraq and Syria that does not address the Sunni/Shi'a proxy civil war being waged by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Any potential U.S. action in Iraq must be assessed in this light.
    Yadernye---completely correct---the Holy War that has been on the drawing boards 1400 years ago is now in full swing.

    Baqubah in Diyala province is the center of gravity for the Sunni's if they move towards Baghdad---we had our heaviest fighting there with the Thunder Runs in the Diyala river basin, the palms grooves rival anything I ever saw in VN bamboo jungles, Zarqawi and al Duri had a number of safe houses there, Zarqawi called for an Islamic state there and he died there, and AQI and the Islamic Army in Iraq a Baathist/Salafi Sunni group were never driven out of Baqubah and Diyala borders Iran. It has as well hundreds of small rat runs to all major Sunni towns and cities.

    There have bee verified reports of Quds Forces and JAM fighting there now and dying as well there.

    If the report below is correct from today's WAPO then with Iranian Shia fighting against Sunni's in Baqubah and surroundings then in fact the Holy War has started and we need to really stay out of what is developing and sit back and let the two regional hegemons Iran and the KSA fight it out as they have been doing in Syria.

    The real danger is the Putin Doctrine in mini format---if Iran cannot dampen down the Sunni and lose control of the Sunni triangle and the Kurdish region anyway there will be then a push from the Iranian hardliners to "take control" of the Shia Iraq much as the Crimea. But instead of language and culture it will be about religion that causes an annexation.


    From WAPO today:

    Three police officers said the station, which has a small jail, came under attack by Islamist militants in Diyala province on Monday night. The attackers tried to free the detainees, all suspected Sunni militants, the agency reported. The police officers said the Shiite militiamen killed the detainees at close range.

    As long as Malaki refuses to do a deal with the Sunni on power/oil revenue sharing the Holy War is a go and from reports coming out of Baghdad he is betting the Iranian card in this poker game.

    Interesting to see that the Iraqi Ambassador to the US stated "we have selected the US as a "strategic partner" and we ask that partner for help BUT when the "partner" states who have not implemented power sharing and are in fact killing/torturing Sunnis everyday via your security forces then Malaki goes silent and does want he wants to do a trait shown to us since the 2010 elections when he basically committed a coup against the winner.

    He has an interesting definition of a "partnership".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2014 at 02:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    I maybe political incorrect, but I like to rise above the partisan clutter for which I maybe forgiven or corrected, if you will.
    Ray, IMHO there is too much political correctness which is used as a cheap means of censorship. Like in the US any criticism of Obama is written off as racist.

    You referred earlier to the Wolfowitz Doctrine which if you take the Wikipedia article at face value is a direct example of how by sanitising the wording all meaning is lost.

    See here: Wolfowitz Doctrine

    The example of the Russian threat.

    First draft wording:

    We continue to recognize that collectively the conventional forces of the states formerly comprising the Soviet Union retain the most military potential in all of Eurasia; and we do not dismiss the risks to stability in Europe from a nationalist backlash in Russia or efforts to reincorporate into Russia the newly independent republics of Ukraine, Belarus, and possibly others....We must, however, be mindful that democratic change in Russia is not irreversible, and that despite its current travails, Russia will remain the strongest military power in Eurasia and the only power in the world with the capability of destroying the United States.
    All meaning lost in final draft:

    The U.S. has a significant stake in promoting democratic consolidation and peaceful relations between Russia, Ukraine and the other republics of the former Soviet Union.
    The world worries that the two countries that have the ability to destroy the earth have such unstable and incompetent leadership... and damn right too.

    .

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