Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

In the context of my last post, and assuming Turkey is backing ISIS, this story begins to make much more sense:

Kurdistan is not going to become independent until it finds a way to fund itself. 90% of KRG budget comes from Baghdad which Maliki has cut off since beginning of 2014 for all but 2 months. There have been months of protests in Kurdistan by government workers about not being paid. Around 70% of KRG budget goes to public workers. It's estimated that KRG would have to export around 1 mil/bar/day to earn enough money to sustain itself. Currently KRG capacity is only at 400,000 bar/day

[JWing]

Firn,

I think that is a narrow interpretation of events and a misreading of the nature of the communal/tribal social dynamics. If Maliki did act against prominent members of his own sect he would have been questioned as to his dedication to the tribe and his legitimacy. He would have been thought too weak and not worthy of loyalty. Support amongst his own people would have evaporated and he would have been replaced, usually by someone more sectarian.

Iraq is a very divided country. Two of Maliki's most ardent critics and opponents of his 3rd term are the Sadrists and Hakim of the Supreme Council.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Kurdistan is not going to become independent until it finds a way to fund itself. 90% of KRG budget comes from Baghdad which Maliki has cut off since beginning of 2014 for all but 2 months. There have been months of protests in Kurdistan by government workers about not being paid. Around 70% of KRG budget goes to public workers. It's estimated that KRG would have to export around 1 mil/bar/day to earn enough money to sustain itself. Currently KRG capacity is only at 400,000 bar/day

Could they do it with support from Turkey?

Alternatively, does Turkey need something from the Kurds they could not get from Baghdad?

Or, could it simply be a necessary evil as part of support for an independed ISIStan?

[TheCurmudgeon]

Heard a show on NPR just a few minutes ago - interview with an ex-Iraqi Air Force Colonel in Mosul who claims that ISIS is only about 15% of the insurgency. They are the tip of the spear for the fighting but not big in the actual control of the territory. The majority are Sunni groups and ex-Baathist military. The ex-Baathists are running the city. The ultimate goal is to take Baghdad and overthrow the government.

[JWing]

Could they do it with support from Turkey?

Alternatively, does Turkey need something from the Kurds they could not get from Baghdad?

Or, could it simply be a necessary evil as part of support for an independed ISIStan?

Turkey has become one of the main supporters of Pres Barzani and his KDP. It has been supporting Kurds' plans to expand its oil industry. Same time has asked for a deal between Baghdad and Irbil before it will export Kurdish oil. Latest statement by Ankara however said it would back an independent Kurdistan if it happened. Still KRG needs 1 mil/bar/day of oil exports and has nowhere near that capacity right now no matter what Turkey does. Will happen in future.

[JWing]

Heard a show on NPR just a few minutes ago - interview with an ex-Iraqi Air Force Colonel in Mosul who claims that ISIS is only about 15% of the insurgency. They are the tip of the spear for the fighting but not big in the actual control of the territory. The majority are Sunni groups and ex-Baathist military. The ex-Baathists are running the city. The ultimate goal is to take Baghdad and overthrow the government.

Number of ISIS in Mosul has gone down dramatically as moves south. Same time ISIS is running the administration in Mosul. Handed out code of conduct in city, has set up Sharia courts, is destroying shrines that it considers unreligious, etc. so they are definitely in charge.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Number of ISIS in Mosul has gone down dramatically as moves south. Same time ISIS is running the administration in Mosul. Handed out code of conduct in city, has set up Sharia courts, is destroying shrines that it considers unreligious, etc. so they are definitely in charge.

What are your estimates as to ISIS total strength in Iraq?

[TheCurmudgeon]

The NPR interview: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2...ping-militants

As they steamrolled across northern Iraq, Sunni militants had important help from an old power in the country — former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party and his army.

One retired air force colonel said he is a member of a newly formed military council overseeing Mosul, the large city captured last week by ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, and its allies from Sunni Arab armed factions.

He spoke in a phone interview from Mosul and agreed to talk only on the condition that he not be named. He said he was worried about being targeted. NPR confirmed through acquaintances that he had served as colonel in the air force during the rule of Saddam, who was ousted in the U.S. invasion of 2003.

The former officer said there were multiple armed Sunni Arab factions that feel marginalized by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-led government.

"They [ISIS] are not in charge. They are not responsible [for] everything," the officer said.

He described ISIS as one of five armed factions opposing the government. The others are made up of people like himself who previously belonged to the military or the Baath Party.One of the biggest factions is the , ostensibly an order of the mystical Sufi sect but in essence a collection of Baathist holdovers. It's led by Saddam's former crony Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, the King of Clubs on the U.S. military's deck of cards ranking former regime targets.

Other support for ISIS comes from forces loyal to the Baathist former Gen. Mohamed Younes Ahmed, who for years has helped the Sunni insurgency, reportedly from Syria. Assistance is also coming from smaller groupings of Saddam loyalists from the old military and security apparatus — men who are valued for the tactical experience and intelligence-gathering they perfected under Saddam's iron-fisted rule.

"They have got good skill, good experience. They have good training ... and they have good weapons and that's why they got a victory [so] fast."

A key component of the militants' strategy is state-building, not just military victories, he said, adding that he's a member of the ad hoc council that's trying to restore basic services to Mosul.

And although black ISIS flags now fly over the city and ISIS has issued laws based on its extreme ideology, the ex-colonel claims that it is former Sunni military officers, not ISIS, who have been left in control of the city.

"Everything is OK and our people, they decided to continue their operation to Baghdad to change that government," he said.

Of course, there is no way to verify anything he says.

[JWing]

What are your estimates as to ISIS total strength in Iraq?

There are all kinds of numbers bouncing around with nothing definite. Probably 3,000-5,000 fighters with me personally leaning towards the lesser figure. They are the best armed, best organized in the country, and ISIS is the only group that launches car bombs, and can attack just about any province in Iraq. Even with the current fighting it has been putting up a steady stream of bombings and shootings in Baghdad and launched car bombs into southern Iraq. It has a difficult working relationship with the Baathists which it is attempting to dominate. Ansar al-Sunna is a rival due to both being international jihadists and there has been fighting between the two in the past. Those are by far the three largest insurgent groups. There are others but they are really small and many almost cease to exist a couple years ago.

[Ray]

Iraqi militants release 42 hostages
http://www.eaglenews.ph/iraqi-milita...e-42-hostages/

Described as from Turkmenistan and Nepal. Not the Turkish diplomats or Indians.

[OUTLAW 09]

This site is carrying two great articles one on a newly created Shia militia which has been fighting in Syria and now back into Iraq and the second on the Quds Force fighting now in Diyala.

1. Yesterday a high level Turkish Party member stated Turkey could live with a Kurdistan on Iraqi territory and from the PM he is indicating that Iraqi is on the verge of splitting into three units.
2. A Turkish mainline think tank yesterday stated that with the fighting in Syrian and now Iraq new borders were in the process of being drawn in the ME.

http://jihadology.net/

Daily Beast had a good article on the views of Turkey which were similar to what is being mentioned in leading German newspapers.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...fied-iraq.html

[OUTLAW 09]

There are all kinds of numbers bouncing around with nothing definite. Probably 3,000-5,000 fighters with me personally leaning towards the lesser figure. They are the best armed, best organized in the country, and ISIS is the only group that launches car bombs, and can attack just about any province in Iraq. Even with the current fighting it has been putting up a steady stream of bombings and shootings in Baghdad and launched car bombs into southern Iraq. It has a difficult working relationship with the Baathists which it is attempting to dominate. Ansar al-Sunna is a rival due to both being international jihadists and there has been fighting between the two in the past. Those are by far the three largest insurgent groups. There are others but they are really small and many almost cease to exist a couple years ago.

One should have seen the various IC estimates and so called "studies" going around on the same question in 2005-2006.

If though one takes the simple fact that say the number is estimated currently at 6000 at the high end and say 2000 at the low end---using 2005/2006/2007 US prisoner figures of say 7000 in Abu Ghraib and another 4000 at Bucca by the end of 2006 early 2007 if the studies were correct the US Army had everyone in prison.

Begs the question then who was still fighting---have never put faith in figures.

I really do get tired of the Baathists being mentioned---heck everyone in Iraq to include the Shia were Baathists even in southern Iraq. The only ones that one could say they were not Baathists were the AQI and the foreign fighters.

If you looked at the "resistance" in 2006 by Sunni's it broke into three distinct groups--nationalists who simply did not like be overrun by an outside power, secular Sunni/fundamental Salafists who came out of the tribes and local major city populations , and AQI. And then there were the Iraqi criminals/gangs/smugglers thrown in to the mix.

AQI was and still is the weakest of the three numbers wise inside the Sunni population as a whole.

Would though dispute the fact that now ISIS is the largest---simply because while JSOC damaged badly AQI through to 2011 the rest of the US Army did not beat up that badly on the other Sunni insurgent groupings---the Shia did to a degree but overall the Sunni groupings as a whole still maintained a depth of numbers not matched by ISIS inside the Sunni population as a whole. Right now the Sunni population is greeting ISIS as liberators not occupiers.

Would agree that yes the ISIS is well armed, but it is the tactical knowledge of the Sunni triangle due to the Sunni tribes that are carrying the fight as well as the intel abilities of the former Sunni insurgent groupings that is delivering high grade intel to ISIS.

This is what I would call a "whole of government" approach that we saw in 2005-2008 by both the AQI and the various Sunni groupings in how they divide up military taskings. One has the money, one has the skills in planning (al Duri and the former IAI), one has the foot soldiers, one has a serious reputation as fierce fighters (both the Ansar al Sunnah and ISIS), one had the intel collection abilities (IAI), one has advanced weapons, one has advanced IEDs (IAI) and the list can go on and on.

It was almost like watching the German WW2 blitz krieg unfold---meaning marching in separate columns and striking as a single unit. The key tactic used today by ISIS was seen starting to unveil itself in 2006/2007---it was the "swarming attack" ----multiple fighter groups attacking at the same time from multiple directions of the compass using light and heavy weapons to draw the attacked force to a specific point where they would be then attacked with VBIEDs or heavy mortar attacks. It worked every time--we never did call it what it was---the US military called the attacks "complex" never did understand that concept as it mislead the simplicity behind the swarm attack.

What is though of interest and is largely overlooked is that AQI and the IAI did throughout our time in Iraq--- had "campaign plans" and overarching "strategies" which were never hidden and openly stated along with the goals they were trying to attain with that specific campaign plan.

The US Army simply ignored them as they viewed it mainly as propaganda.

[JMA]

Kurdistan is not going to become independent until it finds a way to fund itself. 90% of KRG budget comes from Baghdad which Maliki has cut off since beginning of 2014 for all but 2 months. There have been months of protests in Kurdistan by government workers about not being paid. Around 70% of KRG budget goes to public workers. It's estimated that KRG would have to export around 1 mil/bar/day to earn enough money to sustain itself. Currently KRG capacity is only at 400,000 bar/day

Does this include what production is available from the area the Kurds claim as their historical homeland and not just from where they were squeezed into by Saddam?

[JMA]

Iraq is a very divided country. Two of Maliki's most ardent critics and opponents of his 3rd term are the Sadrists and Hakim of the Supreme Council.

Divided into what?

Why should the Sunnis, Kurds and Shias be forced into a unitary state of unequal representation?

[OUTLAW 09]

Divided into what?

Why should the Sunnis, Kurds and Shias be forced into a unitary state of unequal representation?

Right now if one looks at the gains of the ISIS---each ethnic region has oil capabilities so in fact the separation would be easier---but to the only 'freely democratically" elected Shia government in the history of the ME compliments of the US---they want the whole pie--power sharing is not a Malaki strength.

[JMA]

U.S. to Send Up to 300 Military Advisers to Iraq

Warning that the militants pose a threat not just to Iraq but also to the United States, Mr. Obama said he was prepared to take “targeted and precise military action,” a campaign of airstrikes that a senior administration official said could be extended into neighboring Syria.

The thin edge of the wedge?

[OUTLAW 09]

U.S. to Send Up to 300 Military Advisers to Iraq

JMA---seems as if the "no boots on the ground" rule by Obama does not apply to SOF these days as somehow "advisors" are not combat troops.

In my SF advising days ---yes you were an advisor until the first bullet was fired and then you commanded and led by example.

[JMA]

I suggest we are looking at a principle here.

Saddam's Sunnis (up to 20% of the population) ruled the majority Shias (60 plus %) and the Kurds (17%) with murderous brutality. Who gave them that right?

Yes I know about the arbitary borders and all that but like the Russians and their bordering countries by what logic do the Iraqi Sunnis and the Russians have the 'right' to govern other peoples in their own geographic locations (for control of oil and/or for use as a geographic buffer against a hypothetical future invasion)?

Cutting the Sunni part out can be sold on the basis that there will be recognition should the Sunnis assist with the total destruction of radical Islam. The Kurds is more problematic as there will need to be a piece of Syria cut out for consolidation ... with the future demands for the same for pieces of Iran and Turkey. The Shias keep the rest.

And why not?

Right now if one looks at the gains of the ISIS---each ethnic region has oil capabilities so in fact the separation would be easier---but to the only 'freely democratically" elected Shia government in the history of the ME compliments of the US---they want the whole pie--power sharing is not a Malaki strength.

[JMA]

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09;157654]

U.S. to Send Up to 300 Military Advisers to Iraq

JMA---seems as if the "no boots on the ground" rule by Obama does not apply to SOF these days as somehow "advisors" are not combat troops.

More likely it is a case of never, NEVER, being able to trust the word of a politician.

In my SF advising days ---yes you were an advisor until the first bullet was fired and then you commanded and led by example.

As part of the training and advice given to call in a few airstrikes to show them how its done?

[Red Rat]

Advisor/Mentor teams can also be critical enabler teams, especially for providing linkage between surveillance & strike assets. So if the Iraqi military were going to conduct a counter-offensive and you wanted to link their units on the ground with US air & surveillance assets then these teams would be well placed to do it.

Remember the old British Army teaching methodology: Explanation, Demonstration, Imitation, Practice? I suspect the Iraqi Army is about to receive a demonstration on the effective use of airpower in irregular warfare...