Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[SWJ Blog]

The Best Strategy to Handle ISIS: Good Old Containment

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[SWJ Blog]

War Against ISIS: US Strategy in Tatters as Militants March On

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[SWJ Blog]

ISIS Threat Is 'Extremely Worrying' Says Counter-Insurgency Expert

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[SWJ Blog]

Decentralization: The Future of ISIS

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[SWJ Blog]

Obama to Seek Congressional Backing for Military Campaign Against ISIS

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[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts (CWOT on SWC) asks if the USA is ready to again build-up Sunni (tribal) militias in Iraq and just maybe nearby - in the knowledge that their loyalty is only rented:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...-against-isis#

It is not a policy problem just in Iraq:

The lack of viable ground options for securing terrorist safe havens is not a challenge unique to Iraq. The U.S. faces a similar challenge against jihadist enclaves enmeshed in ungoverned spaces in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya and the Sahel to name only a few places.

He provides a framework summary:

Four factors: Establishing favorable conditions for negotiating with militia partners; Offering incentives for participation; Determining the level of control and responsibility for militia actions and Duration of Support

The use of irregular forces is very common in Western COIN and relatively recently in colonial wars in Southern Africa - sometimes with a persistent legacy, e.g. Mozambique.

The Iraqi Kurds know all too well that external support can be quickly terminated; those Algerians who served France paid a high price.

I am sure the prospective 'rented' militia manpower in Iraq know very well their options and that Daesh (ISIS) will be ruthless.

[Bill Moore]

Is our objective to defend the Iraqi government which would be FID in support of Iraqi COIN (or a hybrid of it, since ISIL has conventional capabilities), or is our objective to disrupt and degrade ISIL to minimize it as a threat to U.S. interests and its allies (Saudi, Jordan, Turkey, Europe, etc.), to include attacking the U.S. homeland? In that case, it may be another form of military operation where we co-opt Iraq and others into our coalition.

I have often wondered if our legacy doctrinal concepts of war, FID, COIN, UW, CT, etc. unintentionally limit the way we approach operations.

I don't think our objective is limited to Iraq's internal defense. I thought about counter-UW operations, but even that concept falls short. It seems we're executing a holistic (whole of government, multinational, and incorporating non-state actors that consist of NGOs and militias) across a wide geographical spectrum that includes but is not limited to Iraq. Campaigning?

Those executing may have some sense of clarity, but sitting on the side lines watching it all seems a little confused to me.

[JWing]

The U.S. has been pushing Baghdad to reform the Sahwa but the government is split on the issue. New PM Abadi seems open to it and has ordered discussions with sheikhs in Amman and Irbil. He's also talked about forming a National Guard. In Anbar they are trying to recruit 3,000-5,000 tribal fighters and they will be in part be trained by U.S. trainers at Al-Assad. The problem is that his coalition is far from convinced of this policy. Many of these tribes were with the insurgency and then when IS became more dominant flipped to the government such as the Albu Nimr that's been facing executions by IS recently. Others were with Baghdad from the beginning such as Abu Risha and the Hayes brothers in Anbar. The Jabour tribe in Salaahddin was split with some welcoming IS and some fighting. The point being the tribes are all over the place and there are many Shiite parties that are therefore weary of supporting them in the fear that they will just turn on the government again. That's the reason why the legislation to form the National Guard is stuck in parliament. Also the first group of tribal fighters were said to have graduated from Al-Assad but if the announcements of the recruiting and when they finished training are true they only got 1 week of classes at best. Also a tribal sheikh said that Baghdad had only provided weapons for 100 fighters to the Al-Assad base. Overall it's very complicated with a whole number of issues and therefore may not be effective any time soon.

[jcustis]

The U.S. has been pushing Baghdad to reform the Sahwa but the government is split on the issue. New PM Abadi seems open to it and has ordered discussions with sheikhs in Amman and Irbil. He's also talked about forming a National Guard. In Anbar they are trying to recruit 3,000-5,000 tribal fighters and they will be in part be trained by U.S. trainers at Al-Assad. The problem is that his coalition is far from convinced of this policy. Many of these tribes were with the insurgency and then when IS became more dominant flipped to the government such as the Albu Nimr that's been facing executions by IS recently. Others were with Baghdad from the beginning such as Abu Risha and the Hayes brothers in Anbar. The Jabour tribe in Salaahddin was split with some welcoming IS and some fighting. The point being the tribes are all over the place and there are many Shiite parties that are therefore weary of supporting them in the fear that they will just turn on the government again. That's the reason why the legislation to form the National Guard is stuck in parliament. Also the first group of tribal fighters were said to have graduated from Al-Assad but if the announcements of the recruiting and when they finished training are true they only got 1 week of classes at best. Also a tribal sheikh said that Baghdad had only provided weapons for 100 fighters to the Al-Assad base. Overall it's very complicated with a whole number of issues and therefore may not be effective any time soon.

I watched these sort of fledgling efforts wallow around before; in 2004. It was a #### show then, and with a precedent that powerful we can expect to see it happen again in 2015.

[SWJ Blog]

ISIS Resurgence and the Sunni-Shi’a Schism

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[SWJ Blog]

ISIS: The Inside Story

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[SWJ Blog]

Obama’s Strategy for Defeating ISIS is the Only Viable Option. It Can Work.

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[SWJ Blog]

Fight ISIS? You're Kidding, Why?

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[davidbfpo]

SWC has clearly set terms of reference and rules of engagement, which are all set out at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/faq.php

SWC respects the right of members to post using psuedonyms. members are not required to provide an introduction on joining, nor are 'credentials' required. We are a "broad church" of experience, interests and standpoints. We are not a political board, although politics is ever present.

On a number of issues, in the past and today, members engagement changes and lurches into sniping or personal attacks. Members often contact a Moderator when concerned, a few post their dismay. It maybe appopriate for a Moderator to then take action.

SWC is open for non-members (with a few exceptions) to read and has an excellent reputation for its content. Sometimes the wrong word(s) can damage SWC.

[JWing]

Wow, my computer gets broken by my baby cousin and when I come back here everything has gone to hell.

Anyway, the days of Nouri al-Maliki's premiership are coming to an end. Maliki attempted to repeat his strategy from 2010 which was to drag out the government formation process and outlast his opponents. This time it backfired as not only did State of Law fracture but even his own Dawa Party did. Those splits allowed for the nomination of Haidar Abadi from Dawa to be the next premier. It's not known what Abadi will be like but it does offer the opportunity for a new start for Iraqi politics which is crucial if it wants to reverse the security situation. Here's my article on the whole affair.

[KingJaja]

There seems to be no sense of ownership of Iraq from the US political elite - there's a lot of buck passing and electoral calculus, but no sense of responsibility.

This would be fine if the US had no pretensions to global leadership; but it does - and US politicians go on as if the rest of the World hasn't figured out the geo-strategic incompetence of the US ruling elite.

The rest of the World understood the US was definitely going to be less relevant economically as the years went by (that was clear after the 2008 financial crisis). What is a revelation is how quickly America's geo-strategic relevance is being eroded.

America's great advantage over the Chinese in most parts of the developing World is its military, but Iraq demonstrates the limitation of that military, but most importantly the failure of imagination of the policy makers wielding that tool.

So where does US go - after Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq?

[Bill Moore]

There seems to be no sense of ownership of Iraq from the US political elite - there's a lot of buck passing and electoral calculus, but no sense of responsibility.

This would be fine if the US had no pretensions to global leadership; but it does - and US politicians go on as if the rest of the World hasn't figured out the geo-strategic incompetence of the US ruling elite.

The rest of the World understood the US was definitely going to be less relevant economically as the years went by (that was clear after the 2008 financial crisis). What is a revelation is how quickly America's geo-strategic relevance is being eroded.

America's great advantage over the Chinese in most parts of the developing World is its military, but Iraq demonstrates the limitation of that military, but most importantly the failure of imagination of the policy makers wielding that tool.

So where does US go - after Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq?

Part of President Obama's platform when running for office was his anti-Iraq war stance, but what he seems to fail to recognize at this time is we're looking at an entirely new threat that has nothing to do with our former premise for invading Iraq (WMD). He seems to be trapped in the past. Action is clearly needed in Iraq, and while this may be an overused phrase, it isn't inappropriate. The terrorist organization(s) in Iraq are a "clear and present danger" not only to Iraq, but our interests in the region and to our homeland.

Don't count the U.S. out yet, I think you'll see a major change in our worldview and how we approach it when the next President assumes the office, regardless of whether that person is a democrat or republican.

Relative to China we do have a competitive advantage militarily, but I think a lot of China's economic might is built on a very flimsy foundation. The fact that we're clawing our way back from the economic crisis we went through, even with ineffective political leadership in the White House and Congress, demonstrates our system is pretty resilient. I doubt China could recover from a similar crisis of the scale we went through.

[Bill Moore]

I think it is worth adding that no one is turning towards China, Russia, or any country to provide global leadership, so while our relative power may be decreasing using the conventional measures of military might and economic power, we still are viewed as the global power that other nations and international organizations turn to when there are serious problems that need to be addressed. We still have the power of our ideas, and moral power that is far from perfect, but is still attractive compared to alternatives.

[KingJaja]

Part of President Obama's platform when running for office was his anti-Iraq war stance, but what he seems to fail to recognize at this time is we're looking at an entirely new threat that has nothing to do with our former premise for invading Iraq (WMD). He seems to be trapped in the past. Action is clearly needed in Iraq, and while this may be an overused phrase, it isn't inappropriate. The terrorist organization(s) in Iraq are a "clear and present danger" not only to Iraq, but our interests in the region and to our homeland.

Don't count the U.S. out yet, I think you'll see a major change in our worldview and how we approach it when the next President assumes the office, regardless of whether that person is a democrat or republican.

Relative to China we do have a competitive advantage militarily, but I think a lot of China's economic might is built on a very flimsy foundation. The fact that we're clawing our way back from the economic crisis we went through, even with ineffective political leadership in the White House and Congress, demonstrates our system is pretty resilient. I doubt China could recover from a similar crisis of the scale we went through.

A few words.

1. I don't think anyone is counting on a super hegemon, those days are over. This is more like the World of Bismark & Gladstone - a very delicate balancing act.

2. China not only recovered from warlordism, it also recovered from a Japanese invasion and Mao's cultural revolution - all last century. China is a lot more resilient than we think.

3. I don't see China's economic foundation as flimsy; it's a lot more resilient than we give them credit for - and from Africa & Latin America - you can see a strategy for future economic growth - which the US simply does not have.

Chinese trade with Africa was $210 billion this year, US trade with Africa was $85 billion. While Chinese trade is on an upward swing, US trade is actually declining - the same applies to Latin America.

I haven't seen any glimmer of a Bismark in any major US politician - maybe you know more about them than I do.

[OUTLAW 09]

Wow, my computer gets broken by my baby cousin and when I come back here everything has gone to hell.

Anyway, the days of Nouri al-Maliki's premiership are coming to an end. Maliki attempted to repeat his strategy from 2010 which was to drag out the government formation process and outlast his opponents. This time it backfired as not only did State of Law fracture but even his own Dawa Party did. Those splits allowed for the nomination of Haidar Abadi from Dawa to be the next premier. It's not known what Abadi will be like but it does offer the opportunity for a new start for Iraqi politics which is crucial if it wants to reverse the security situation. Here's my article on the whole affair.

Joel--this whole refugees in the mountains and the defeat of the Peshmerga is being from what I understand driven by no more than 350 IS fighters with light trucks? Their field maneuver ie swarming and the use of mortars as artillery coupled with very good snipers is an interesting tactical development not previously seen in Iraq from 2003-2010.

Secondly---IS had moved a large number of their personnel into the south of Baghdad and east/west of Baghdad---then silence.

Why the quiet?---actually it is too quiet as everyone is looking north but IS is sitting quietly around Baghdad and strengthening weekly.

Was the dam security control recovered by the ISF as of yet or still in IS control?