Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[Ray]

Bill---this "root" goes back 1400 years and Islam has not had it's own internal "reformation" as the Catholic and \

Ijtihad (Arabic: اجتهاد‎ ijtihād, "diligence") is an Islamic legal term that means “independent reasoning” or “the utmost effort an individual can put forth in an activity.”

As one of the four sources of Sunni law, it is recognized as the decision-making process in Islamic law (sharia) through personal effort (jihad) which is completely independent of any school (madhhab) of jurisprudence (fiqh). As opposed to taqlid, it requires a “thorough knowledge of theology, revealed texts and legal theory (usul al-fiqh); an exceptional capacity for legal reasoning; thorough knowledge of Arabic.”

By using both the Qu'ran and Hadith as resources, the scholar is required to carefully rely on analogical reasoning to find a solution to a legal problem, which considered to be a religious duty for those qualified to conduct it.

Thus, a mujtahid is recognized as an Islamic scholar who is competent in interpreting sharia by ijtihad. Today, there are many different opinions surrounding the role of ijtihad in modern society, and whether or not the “doors of ijtihad are closed.”

Around the beginning of the 900s, most Sunni jurists argued that all major matters of religious law had been settled, allowing for taqlid, “the established legal precedents and traditions,” to take priority over ijtihad

However, the Shi'i Muslims recognized “human reasoning and intellect as a legal source that supplements the Quran and other revealed texts,” thus continuing to acknowledge the importance of ijtihad.

Wiki

[TheCurmudgeon]

I'll take a look at the model, I'm sure there is some merit to it, but to state that any social science is proven IMO seems to be a stretch, since unlike the hard sciences the social scientists can't control the conditions of the test, so they can't account for all variables. I'll accept there is a strong correlation.

I also don't see how this model applies when many wealthy Muslims join these fights, they have their slice of the pie and then some. Nonetheless it seems logical in theory and worth testing.

Bill, very little can be "scientifically proven" when it comes to sociology. I would argue that, we Westerners have done a pretty good job of proving that democracy cannot be forced onto a population that is not "primed" for it. Therefore, any attempt to try to save the situation in Iraq by trying to force a more inclusive government (the democratic solution to divisiveness) is doomed to failure.

I will say that, of all the material I have researched on politics, sociology, and psychology, the work or Inglehart and Welzel comes closest to matching the world I saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Unless you believe that Arabs and Persians are somehow biologically different from the rest of the world's population, then the explanation for why they choose a more harshly strict communal social structure has to be based on living conditions including cultural history.

There is nothing uniquely "evil" about Islam. Like our Judeo/Christian history it can be used to justify any number of evils. The question is "why?" While I admit the obvious parallels between the religious wars of our past and the current ones in the ME, I would look to what factors the time frames have in common. Child mortality. Literacy rates. Religion as the source of moral codes. Change these factors and you change the living conditions.

It is a humanistic solution. It is also very time consuming. There is a reason democratic consolidation takes 20 years on average. That is the time for one generation to grow up in a world distinctly different than the one that existed at the time of the transition. Also, interestingly enough, the amount of time someone else noted as necessary to change the culture of the Iraqi military.

The problem is that it cannot be accomplished during the current crisis. Right now stability is the best we can hope for. We are not going to get that by backing an unstable form of government.

I am trying to be realistic and not sound like a New Age guru. But the human psychology at play in the Western world is the same human psychology at play in the ME. This is not good versus evil. Those terms are always relative. What you consider "good" or "evil" is based on the value system you hold. You value system is tied to your living conditions and your cultural history. The interesting thing is that, as your value system changes (based on changes in your living conditions) your interpretation of your cultural history changes. We "reinterpret" history to fit our current conditions. So the living conditions are the only independent variable I can find in what we decide is good or evil.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Intersting.

ISIS Just Attacked Iran

On June 19, militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria attacked Iranian border guards near Iran’s border city of Qasre Shirin, according to Iranian social media.

A photograph showed the bodies of at least two Iranian officers apparently killed in the skirmish. Iran’s state-controlled media didn’t initially report the clash at Qasre Shirin, as Tehran routinely censors violent border incidents.

But Iranian officials took an unusual step and eventually talked about this particular incident. The first official to react was Fath Allah Hosseini, Qasre Shirin’s representative in the Iranian parliament. Hosseini insisted that residents were not afraid of ISIS, which has captured much of northwestern Iraq in recent weeks.

Then on June 21, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza Pourdastan—the Iranian army’s senior ground force commander—confirmed to the state-run YJC news agency that the incident took place. But Pourdastan said that the attackers were from the Kurdish militant group Party for Free Life of Kurdistan, also known by its Kurdish acronym PEJAK.

[OUTLAW 09]

Intersting.

ISIS Just Attacked Iran

Means that while under the guise of another group the Iranians were attacked---strange then that the initial reporting indicates ISIS and then later a Kurdish group.

Would bet whoever was behind it ---it is due to the Iranian Quds Force fighting now in Diyala province and in Baqubah which has been confirmed. AQI/ISIS and the Sunni insurgent groups have no lost love for Iranian military forces wherever they are in Iraq.

Fighting is in or near Khanaqin which is not far from Muqdadiyah (both towns the Kurds up to 2011 tried to push their green lines into by claiming both to have been Kurdish prior to the Arabization by Saddam) both towns were a strong point for a number of the Sunni insurgent groups and for the then AQI. Al Duri had several safe houses/personal homes near both towns and often came in and out of Syria to them in 2005/2006.

The confusion in group names does not surprise me as group names were often used for opsec measures.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Means that while under the guise of another group the Iranians were attacked---strange then that the initial reporting indicates ISIS and then later a Kurdish group.

Would bet whoever was behind it ---it is due to the Iranian Quds Force fighting now in Diyala province and in Baqubah which has been confirmed.

Fighting it not far from Muqdadiyah which was a strong point for a number of the Sunni insurgent groups and for the then AQI.

Wonder if this was intentional or accidental. If intentional, was it designed to get Iran more involved to make the U.S. less inclined to become actively involved?

[OUTLAW 09]

Wonder if this was intentional or accidental. If intentional, was it designed to get Iran more involved to make the U.S. less inclined to become actively involved?

There is nothing accidental by the ISIS and allied Sunni groups---this was a clear intentional shot across the front of the entire ship letting the Iranians fully understand they will be engaged if they come into Sunni territories and yes the border areas of that crossing point have been under dispute since the end of the 1980-1988 war. It is also a not to subtle warning to Iran about it's fighting in Diyala province---which they are---it leaves themselves open for a multi front campaign all the way up to the major crossing point Mandali as the Sunni insurgents had cells in most of Diyala up through 2011 and fighting has flared there often since 2011.

As a former VN SF vet--the Diyala River Basin is one heck of a pull back region---some of the palm groves in the basin are thicker than any bamboo jungle I saw and experienced on the Cambodian border.

Know that area well---that crossing point was starting in 2006 a rat run for Shia EFP shipments going to the Shia militants JAM and the Special Groups. It was also a crossing point for a bunch of Iranian Quds Froces guys who got picked up by the US Army as well before being sent home out by the Iraqi government once we turned them over to Iraq---Malaki was behind the taking control from the US of the Iranian military.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Perhaps this is the beginning of the inevitable I believe will happen (and that we should encourage), perhaps not.

According to the security official, who was in Kirkuk and spoke on the condition of anonymity, the Sunnis battling ISIS were from the Men of the Army of Naqshbandia, former Saddam Hussein loyalists, or Baathists. The two groups are allies of convenience with very different ideologies; the Baathists’ nationalistic, Sufi philosophy is completely at odds with ISIS’s extreme Islamist beliefs.

The battles reportedly took place in Hawija, one of the strongholds of the Naqshbandia, which was formed by former army officers from the ousted government of Saddam Hussein. The security official said the fighting had broken out when ISIS tried to disarm the Naqshbandia, but a witness from Hawija said they had been fighting over control of gasoline and oil tanker trucks captured from a refinery at Baiji.

The Naqshbandia group has become a major component of the extremist Sunni coalition, at least partly because of its military experience and the Baath Party’s deep roots in the Sunni community.

On its website, the Naqshbandia group denied any problems with its allies. “We deny such news, we are in battle only with the occupiers of Iraq (Iran and the government),” the statement said. “It is clear that the government is doing this to get our army in an internal battle that will take us away from our main goal.”

In a society where power sharing is not the norm, ISIS will eventually have to destroy or subjugate all the other members of the allied Sunni groups. If only we could find a “moderate” Sunni extremist group to back…

[TheCurmudgeon]

I am surprised the Saudi’s don’t see the threat in ISIS. Based on their religious bent and their penchant for oil revenues, I would think that Saudi Arabia would be their next target. It has all of the key religious holy places, it has lots of oil, and from what I can tell its military is abysmal. If I were in the house of Saud, I would be keeping a very close eye on things in Iraq.

[OUTLAW 09]

Perhaps this is the beginning of the inevitable I believe will happen (and that we should encourage), perhaps not.



In a society where power sharing is not the norm, ISIS will eventually have to destroy or subjugate all the other members of the allied Sunni groups. If only we could find a “moderate” Sunni extremist group to back…

TC--the story is a fake concerning the infighting---the comment concerning the fuel dispute is the correct story ---this happened a number of times when smuggling and or critical supplies were in demand.

Right now fuel for vehicles in in demand as they now have a large number of vehicles they must keep fueled and moving either back to Syria or onward towards Baghdad.

[OUTLAW 09]

JWing----I was wondering when the Islamic Army in Iraq would come formally out of the woodwork. Really good interview-worth a read. We recovered the handwritten journal of the actual leader and virtually nothing from it has ever been translated---it was almost like the US IC did not really care in 2006.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-Baghdad.html

Interview conducted in Erbil---and who controls Erbil?

The problem for the US is that al Dabash was not the actual head of the IAI---was though one of the IAI founding group of Salafists in 2003 before we arrived. We actually picked up the true leader by accident and then let him go six months later---al Dabash was one of their major finance types.
I am though surprised he is still covering for the actual leader ---that indicates to me that they feel we simply still do not know who he is and al Dabash is probably right in that assumption.

From 2006:
July 29: Coalition forces targeted and detained two senior al-Qaeda leaders and three other suspected terrorists during multiple raids in central and northern Iraq. In a separate raid, security forces detained a principal al-Qaeda financial and logistics operative in the northern city of Mosul.

The list goes on as U.S. soldiers in late July and early August rang up terrorist kills and captures like cherries on a Vegas slot machine. But unlike Vegas, luck had little to do with their success. Coalition forces, including the Joint Special Operations Command, whose operatives took out Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in June, have acted systematically on a trove of intelligence yielded after the capture of key terror leaders and financiers, according to Multi-National Forces Iraq, headquartered in Baghdad.

For example, the recent detention of an underling led directly to the capture of Ja'far 'Abdallah. And Iraqi and coalition forces nabbed on May 29 Sheikh Ahmed al-Dabash, the money man behind the March 2004 bombing at the Shiite holy city of Karbala that killed 140. Al-Dabash's capture was part of the chain of events leading to the U.S. hit on al-Zarqawi.

But a search on news databases for Abdallah, al-Dabash, turns up very little if nothing at all.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Does anyone have the link to the ISIS video of the attacks and actions, I believe, in Mosul. If I recall, it is about 52 minutes long with subtitles. It shows the targeted "drive by" shootings on the highway followed by a scene in a mosque where a group of men are founded up and "forgiven" by Al Baghdadi “may Allah protect him.” I saw it yesterday but have now lost the link.

That scene in the mosque is really interesting form of psychological conversion. First you kill a few key people around town, then you round up the fighting age men, then you place them in a Mosque. The men in the Mosque already know ISIS will kill them without a thought. Then Al Baghdadi grants the men forgiveness. The relief of not being killed is palpable. From there it looks like scenes from an evangelical Christian meeting of people who have just taken Christ as their savior, except on steroids. It is like watching group Stockholm syndrome. Not only was Al Baghdadi in control of whether they lived or died, he was also tied into their guarantee of life after death. I would guess that some of the people in that room will become active followers.

It had a "cult" feel to it. My guess is that the conversion method used there garners very loyal members of the group.

[TheCurmudgeon]

TC--the story is a fake concerning the infighting---the comment concerning the fuel dispute is the correct story ---this happened a number of times when smuggling and or critical supplies were in demand.

Right now fuel for vehicles in in demand as they now have a large number of vehicles they must keep fueled and moving either back to Syria or onward towards Baghdad.

Oh well. I will stand by my prediction - sooner or later there will be a power struggle. Better for us if it happens sooner rather than later.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh well. I will stand by my prediction - sooner or later there will be a power struggle. Better for us if it happens sooner rather than later.

TC--really read the article link I just posted on the IAI and watch the interview with one of the founding members of the Islamic Army in Iraq----he is providing an accurate view of the ground reality between the Sunni groups and the ISIS. The IAI is what s being referred to as "The Military Council".

Interview conducted in Erbil and who controls Erbil---gives insight on the position of the Kurds in this ongoing Sunni fight with Malaki.

So if the world thinks the Kurds and Sunni are going to be fighting each other think again--notice how they split Mosul and the ISIS is remaining nicely on the edges of Kirkuk and then the attack on the Iranian crossing point.

He is voicing something that has come up in the Kurdish comments the last few days--they want a federated Kurdish area inside Iraq but that requires the Shia providing a true power sharing/revenue sharing compromise.

[JWing]

Here's my latest article "Moqtada al-Sadr And Iraq's Militia Mobilization" Sadr was one of the last Shiite leaders to mobilize his militia to face the insurgency. Sadr's forces and other militias have been integrated into the military, received training from the army and are deployed across Iraq. This is a failure of the state & is another sign that history is repeating itself in Iraq.

[TheCurmudgeon]

TC--really read the article link I just posted on the IAI and watch the interview with one of the founding members of the Islamic Army in Iraq----he is providing an accurate view of the ground reality between the Sunni groups and the ISIS. The IAI is what s being referred to as "The Military Council".

Interview conducted in Erbil and who controls Erbil---gives insight on the position of the Kurds in this ongoing Sunni fight with Malaki.

So if the world thinks the Kurds and Sunni are going to be fighting each other think again--notice how they split Mosul and the ISIS is remaining nicely on the edges of Kirkuk and then the attack on the Iranian crossing point.

He is voicing something that has come up in the Kurdish comments the last few days--they want a federated Kurdish area inside Iraq but that requires the Shia providing a true power sharing/revenue sharing compromise.

I am in full agreement that the Kurds are going to stay out of this as much a possible. If I were to go way out on a limb, I would speculate that the fix is already in, via Turkey, for the Kurds to back a seperation of Iraq into its sectarian components.

Others have made the point that the Kurds really cannot aford this, but I think they may be willing to take a little financial risk for thier own state.

I believe the split will occur in the Sunni - the members of the Military Council.

[TheCurmudgeon]

TC--really read the article link I just posted on the IAI and watch the interview with one of the founding members of the Islamic Army in Iraq----he is providing an accurate view of the ground reality between the Sunni groups and the ISIS. The IAI is what s being referred to as "The Military Council".

Interview conducted in Erbil and who controls Erbil---gives insight on the position of the Kurds in this ongoing Sunni fight with Malaki.

So if the world thinks the Kurds and Sunni are going to be fighting each other think again--notice how they split Mosul and the ISIS is remaining nicely on the edges of Kirkuk and then the attack on the Iranian crossing point.

He is voicing something that has come up in the Kurdish comments the last few days--they want a federated Kurdish area inside Iraq but that requires the Shia providing a true power sharing/revenue sharing compromise.

Outlaw,

Do you believe he would accept American support as he claims at the end of the interview?... or would that kill his credibility within his own faction/tribe?

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Do you believe he would accept American support as he claims at the end of the interview?... or would that kill his credibility within his own faction/tribe?

Yes I do--as strange as it sounds he has "aged" and become more mellow with time---and maybe through the detention.

Saw that often meaning they would fight us to the bitter end and then if the detention was fair and correct meaning good food, health care on a regular basis, then visits from family members depending on being in say Abu G vs Bucca and interaction with US types they would tend to mellow out and lose some of their anger towards Americans as a whole.

He sees again strange as it sounds the US to be at the least a partner that one can talk to and negotiate and IMO he also sees the US as a balance against the Iranians and Badr/Malaki.

From the journal he was in the fight since 2002--the date 2002 was before we even got to Iraq so it begs the question who was he fighting against in Baghdad in 2002---namely Saddam.

The key point is why is he so comfortable in Erbil and having an open interview in a major hotel---no fear, and totally comfortable. It also begs the question are the Kurds fully aware of exactly what the Sunni's are up to and do they in fact support them?

The actual leader of he IAI did a similar interview in early 2004 with a Finnish reporter that was about 15-20 minutes long and he did not hide his face either.

[OUTLAW 09]

TC---one of the core reasons that the current ISIS and Sunni insurgent groups will collaborate in the current days and weeks and will not split is due to something that goes back to 2002 and was there for the national level IC and the Army to see but no one paid any attention to it.

A Salafist insurgency in full gear targeting an overthrow of Saddam. If one looks at the organization that led that fight it was in fact the Islamic Army in Iraq.

It was a loose group of individuals who went on to create and lead the Sunni insurgency when we arrived in Baghdad and after we threw out Saddam, and I will go a step further---assisted in creating the lead element that became eventually QJBR.

Check the interview--he references the internal differences that occurred between AQI and the IAI in 2006/2007 when he was sitting in US detention so even in prison he knew exactly what was going on outside the wire.

Inside that loose group of individuals was another group that maintained a close relationship with the IAI--- of Al Tawhid a sub name not often associated to AQI/ISIS but is a major fighting Sunni Brigade currently in Syria ---an interesting use of an older name.

An interesting individual who was a coming and going individual in that 2002/2003 group is now the current leader of the ISIS who got picked up in 2005 as being part of AQI and who when coming out in 2009 eased back into AQI leadership positions and on to ISIS leadership.

So on the surface maybe it seems natural that they will have long term differences but on a personal level they are tightly associated since the 2002/2003 timeframe.

[TheCurmudgeon]

TC---one of the core reasons that the current ISIS and Sunni insurgent groups will collaborate in the current days and weeks and will not split is due to something that goes back to 2002 and was there for the national level IC and the Army to see but no one paid any attention to it.

A Salafist insurgency in full gear targeting an overthrow of Saddam. If one looks at the organization that led that fight it was in fact the Islamic Army in Iraq.

It was a loose group of individuals who went on to create and lead the Sunni insurgency when we arrived in Baghdad and after we threw out Saddam, and I will go a step further---assisted in creating the lead element that became eventually QJBR.

Check the interview--he references the internal differences that occurred between AQI and the IAI in 2006/2007 when he was sitting in US detention so even in prison he knew exactly what was going on outside the wire.

Inside that loose group of individuals was another group that maintained a close relationship with the IAI--- of Al Tawhid a sub name not often associated to AQI/ISIS but is a major fighting Sunni Brigade currently in Syria ---an interesting use of an older name.

An interesting individual who was a coming and going individual in that 2002/2003 group is now the current leader of the ISIS who got picked up in 2005 as being part of AQI and who when coming out in 2009 eased back into AQI leadership positions and on to ISIS leadership.

So on the surface maybe it seems natural that they will have long term differences but on a personal level they are tightly associated since the 2002/2003 timeframe.

It may be that they can get along, but I will believe it when I see it.

I have to admit that, I would prefer the US talk to al Dabash than work with Maliki. I personnally think it is the smarter play.

But I still see trouble ahead. There are fundimental ideological differences and there is a lot of money floating around. Plus, it seems clear that al Dabash wants to be the face of events. I am not sure how al Baghdadi's going to feel about that.

[OUTLAW 09]

It may be that they can get along, but I will believe it when I see it.

I have to admit that, I would prefer the US talk to al Dabash than work with Maliki. I personnally think it is the smarter play.

But I still see trouble ahead. There are fundimental ideological differences and there is a lot of money floating around. Plus, it seems clear that al Dabash wants to be the face of events. I am not sure how al Baghdadi's going to feel about that.

TC---notice how Dabash speaks about ISIS--in moderate form and he is always calm and self confident---something I have not seen outside of a particular Ansar al Sunnah leader I dealt with.

This is the thing one hears all the time lately the name Ansar al Islam which was originally Sunni Kurdish which in 2005 became Ansar al Sunnah and now the older name which I do not believe they in fact changed back to.

Now ASA is in fact back into the game and an active member along side IAI and the fact that they were originally Kurdish in the early days should not be overlooked.

There is way to much "suddenly" appearing out of the woodwork to be just a causal thing.

I had wondered from 2011 to now why it was so quiet inside the Sunni insurgent side and AQI now ISIS appeared to be the singular active group outwardly---but what if internally the Sunni insurgency was reestablishing ties to the tribes which we had cut as long as we were in Iraq and that appears to be the case as the tribes have a long memory of what they suffered under with AQI but they did have good relations with IAI.

ISIS simply does not have the manpower to hold territory so they are dependent on the other coalition partners to make it work---back in 2006 when the fighting broke out between AQI and IAI ---IAI was on the verge of badly damaging AQI but for the sake of the fight with the Shia and the US backed off of their threat against AQI.

al Baghdadi definitely remembers as does Dabash thus ISIS will openly lead but inwardly it will be IAI/al Duri/tribes---will there be short fights and disagreements--that is just Iraq being Iraq--- but the overall goal for them is a federated Sunni triangle with a revenue stream in a power sharing mode.

Al Baghdadi (Iraqi)came out of the IAI personal circle in 2002/2003 Zarqawi (foreigner) never did--that is a major plus.

Notice Dabash is not in the least "threatened" by the Shia mobilization---in fact he warns the Shia Sheiks not to attack Sunnis.