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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #601
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    Here's my latest interview "Explaining Kurdish Nationalism Interview With Tenn Tech Univ Prof Michael Gunter". I talked with Prof Michael Gunter of Tennessee Technical Univ. about the development of Kurdish nationalism. Many Kurds date their nationalist drive back to the 5-7th Centuries but Prof Gunter argues that nationalism didn't develop in the Middle East until the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI and Kurds didn't use modern nationalism rhetoric until the 1960s-1990s.

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    Here's my latest article on the security situation in Iraq "Do Dead Bodies In The Street’s Of Iraq’s Capital Point Towards A Renewed Civil War?" There has been a decided increase in the number of bodies dumped on the streets of Baghdad province this year. This is likely the result of increased insurgent operations and the return of the militias who are now openly operating in the capital.

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    New Sunni video out of Erbil -----

    http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middl...354899669.html

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    My latest article "Islamic State Carries Out Intimidation Campaign Destroying Homes And Kidnapping And Murdering People In Northern Iraq". Islamic State has run both a hearts & minds campaign as well as tried to rule with an iron fist in northern Iraq and along the frontlines. As part of its intimidation campaign it has blown up over 300 homes, kidnapped over 100 and executed dozens.

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    My new article "Costs Of Iraq’s Kurds Moving Into The Disputed Territories." Many have proclaimed the Kurds the winner of the current conflict in Iraq but few have mentioned the costs they are incurring. Over 300 casualties and more costs when the KRG is short of cash.

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    Default The money is in the bank

    It was described as one the biggest heists in the history of bank robbery: more than $400m reportedly stolen from Mosul financial institutions by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, known as Isis, as it seized control of Iraq’s second-largest city of Mosul last month.

    But Iraqi bankers in Mosul and the capital, Baghdad, are saying the robbery never took place and that the cash remains inside the vaults of the city’s banks.

    Alas full story is behind a free registration wall:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0378d4f4-0...#axzz37qno7ZV1
    davidbfpo

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    I just posted some new videos on Iraq. They include the BBC visiting an Asaib Ah Al-Haq base in Salahaddin, the Kurds seizing two oil fields in Kirkuk and the opinions of the regional powers and the U.S. to Kurdish independence, a report on ISF & militias executing over 200 prisoners recently, PBS Newshour interviewing CSIS's Anthony Cordesman on how foreign military aid to Iraq will only have limited effect, Turkmen refugees from northern Iraq, and then a 1 hr+ video from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on the Kurdish situation. Click on this link

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    Default Sunnis In Baghdad Fleeing Militias And Harassment By Iraqi Security Forces

    Another worrying trend has begun in Baghdad. Over 4000 people have been displaced the majority of which appear to be Sunnis. Security in the capital overall has been constant this year. What has changed is the return of militias and increased targeting of Sunni neighborhoods by the security forces who are accused of cordoning off neighborhoods, conducting mass raids and arbitrary arrests. Here's a link to my article on the topic.

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    The new wave of fighting that started in January 2014 in Anbar and has now spread to northern and central Iraq has created a new refugee crisis in Iraq. The International Organization for Migration has counted almost 900,000 internally displaced Iraqis but the real numbers are much higher. Here's a link to my article on the topic.

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    JWing----it appears that the Sunni Coalition is taking over the control of areas captured by IS and then the IS moves on---have you heard that as well---almost as if the IS is being used as the Waffen SS to capture and terrorize and then hands off.

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    Outlaw

    There was a story about that in Mosul but of questionable sourcing. From what I've heard IS is strengthening its hold on places like Mosul. It recently rounded up a bunch of different insurgent groups in the city to force them to pledge allegiance to it. It now has an IS police force for Mosul with patrol cars. It just kicked out the city's Christians, etc. It also has established itself in Hawija, Kirkuk, which was a traditional Naqshibandi stronghold. In Salahaddin it wiped out a couple villages that stood up to it.

    I think a lot of the stories about the IS moving on and not being as prominent comes from other insurgent groups who generally deny that IS even exists because they are in its shadow. In most official statements by other militant groups they don't even mention IS and some have tried to claim IS operations as their own.

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    The changing battlefield in Iraq has led to a reduction in the number of car bombs and their use by the Islamic State. Some traditional targets like Mosul and Tikrit are now under insurgent control. IS also appears to be using car bombs as more of a tactical weapon against cities that it is laying siege to like Ramadi and Samarra. Here's a link to my article. Includes charts on all the car bombings in 2014 in Iraq.

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    No move on Baghdad?
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
    ---

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    Jwing---was working through some research on Shia and Sunni historical development and stumbled across the former al Baghdadi history and shifted from him into the Caliph concept historically represented in the various Islamic historical writings.

    If you noticed outside of the first outbursts from leading Sunni thinkers about the Caliph being wrong---it has gone silent.

    If my readings are correct--- because the historical writings and the use of the name of the former al Baghdadi seems and again Islamic historical writings are always open to interpretation---seems that the IS made a shrewd move on their part and in fact the IS might have the right interpretation of the historical writings.

    In the Sunni Islamic stream of faith there are currently three Salafist groups moving at the same time and parallel to each other; 1) the purists who are not political and are fully into Islam and it's meanings, 2) the political types who are throwing out the terms down with US control of the ME/against globalization as it effects the ME etc and where a small number then drift into 3) the jihadists side.

    There is an old German saying here in Berlin not all Salafists are terrorists, but all terrorists are Salafists.

    If you look at al Baghdadi's statements since he has taken over and the IS actions they are in fact riding all three streams of the Salafist movement and appeal to all factions even al Duri's faction as the Sufi have been the "spreaders" of the faith for a really long time.

    IMO al Baghdadi and the IS have hit the middle point of the Salafist movement that the AQ mothership failed in reaching even under UBL. The AQ mothership needs to be forewarned as al Baghdadi is not going away any time soon nor as it appears the IS is either.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2014 at 10:30 AM.

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    Looks like the ISF are killing their Sunni prisoners --HRW would call it murdering their prisoners and blaming the IS for it.

    http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/0-...thern-baghdad/

    The Wolf Bde was bad about this in 2005 thru 2007 when they would roll into Diyala, arrest over 500 Sunni's at a time, haul them back to Baghdad, where they were interrogated for weeks and then all charged as AQI.

    Then "surprisingly' released after about 4 months when their families paid a ransom for them.

    The SPiTT teams never did get this under control from 2005-2007. The first US advisor teams had to be convinced the ransom thing was an ongoing scram by the Wolf Bde.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2014 at 11:11 AM.

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    It is actually interesting to see how over the last years Iran and Hezbollah contributed to the fighting effectiveness of Hamas in Gaza---32 Israeli IDF killed and only an estimated 200 of which Hamas claims only 70 were fighters and the IDF estimates Hamas strength at 20,000.

    Interesting also is the fortified underground and interconnecting tunnel systems remind me of Far Eastern battle tactics ie the North Vietnamese Army tatics of fortified villages.

    There was a former Marine officer--Poole who wrote a number of books on the Far Eastern battle tactics being used in the ME by both the Sunni and Shia.

    What is far more interesting is that both the Sunni and Shia will work together when they have a common perceived enemy--we saw this at varying times even late in Iraq in the 2008-2010 period with the EFP IEDs when AQI/IAI crossed over and purchased EFP parts and then sold the Shia large amounts of HME.

    http://news.yahoo.com/hamas-tactics-...173119328.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-24-2014 at 11:48 AM. Reason: Copied to the Gaza thread

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    Default Segmentary opposition.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    What is far more interesting is that both the Sunni and Shia will work together when they have a common perceived enemy--we saw this at varying times even late in Iraq in the 2008-2010 period with the EFP IEDs when AQI/IAI crossed over and purchased EFP parts and then sold the Shia large amounts of HME.
    In the world of anthropology we call this segmentary opposition. “Me against my brother, both of us against our father, all of us against you.”

    The exemplar description is invariably Evans-Pritchard’s description of how Nuer lineages fight one another, come together as a clan to fight other clans, and how all Nuer clans come together to fight the Dinka. It has been suggested, though, that many of forms of social organization he described amongst the Nuer are modeled upon the social life of the Bedouins in Libya with whom he served during WWII.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    No move on Baghdad?
    It's coming. There are almost daily reports of ISF picking up infiltrators into the capital along with the regular daily violence of IEDs and shootings. All the insurgent groups want to reach Baghdad and restart the street fighting there. It will happen sooner rather than latter. I fear the repercussions however as I think that will quickly lead to the ISF & militias turning to sectarian cleansing again as they did during the civil war.

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    My latest article "Indiscriminate Air Strikes By Iraq’s Army On Civilian Targets". Since the fall of Fallujah in Jan. the Iraqi forces have increasingly turned to indiscriminate shelling and air strikes upon civilian targets. This has now spread to Salahaddin, Ninewa and Kirkuk since large sections of those governorates have fallen to insurgents. The ISF apparently seems to think anything in insurgent held territory is a legitimate target. Air strikes have hit hospitals and universities. Even a case where ISF helicopter dropped a barrel bomb on a group of swimmers in Mosul.

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    Outlaw

    You should check Hassan Hassan's work. He's bee writing a lot of good analysis of IS and the caliphate etc.

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