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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #61
    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    The reason for the comment is as follows---if one takes the view that yes the US military implemented as correctly as they could the tenets of COIN in the host country Iraq as per say and we can argue about it all day-- as per the FM.
    I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Outlaw09 has posted on the potential for Iraqi state forces giving up. Just spitted on Twitter:

    Very short video of along column of men walking along a highway, very lightly guarded:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0sa9...ature=youtu.be

    I do wonder what these prisoners life chances are.
    David--guessing not high because ISIS does not have a Geneva C track record with Shia prisoners or Awakening prisoners since 2004.

    Have to many beheading videos in my research records that indicates they never change.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.
    Took no offense my only concern is that the Army has gotten so wrapped up in the COIN debate they lost sight of really what is going on in such environments ie Iraq and Syria. The discussion of COIN failure is extremely important but more important is the discussion of a national UW and counter UW strategy as the next 20 years will be about UW as it is the center piece of both the new Russian and Chinese strategies. COIN died in Iraq and although it died--it was attempted to "win" with it in AFG because no debate concerning failure took place.

    If one looks at the WH decision to not support the more "moderate" of the Islamists in Syria with heavier weapons in order to effectively counter Assad as well as ISIS--in hindsight this was a massive mistake and Syria was lost as well as the Sunni triangle.

    Secondly, there is an interesting link that ISIS has been treated far "differently" by Assad forces than the other Islamist groups---and this might in fact be correct if one looks at the history of AQI and other Sunni groups selling HME to the JAM/SG/Mahdi groups and AQI purchasing EFPs from JAM/SGs. If one remembers the introduction of the Russian hand held and thrown RGP 3 anti tank grenade in about 2006/2207 that caused a lot of damage--it was initially introduced by AQI then transferred to the IAI ---all indicators initially pointed to it coming into Iraq via Iranian smugglers.

    And then the recent reporting of how Iran protected and moved AQ personnel in and through Iran in order to fight against the US in Iraq.

    I do know from first hand debriefs that IAI did not like AQI protecting Iranian SF agents that did come and go as early as 2005 into Iraq and were protected by AQI.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-12-2014 at 06:13 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Ray

    Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. How does it fit in with your theory about Muslim countries?
    They too have had an 'iron hand' given their history.

    However, it is interesting to note that their currency carries the image of 'Ganesha' a Hindu idol.



    That is blasphemy in Islam!

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    This has to be a record in the history of jail breaks---in just three days ISIS has attacked prisons located in the various cities they have attacked freeing an estimated 4500 prisoners-- many who were former Sunni insurgents from the various Sunni groups especially from the former IAI and Ansar al Sunnah.

  6. #66
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default The Ghost Of Colonel Warden!

    No more Boots On The Ground....time for Wings On Our Feet.

    Maybe we will finally learn we are an Airpower nation! We have known that since the 1950's for theses situations it is best to use our Airpower(to include SF/CIA advisors) and there Boots if you want to win.

  7. #67
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    Iraq is like any Islamic country.

    The social and the governance model is shaped by the norms of the religion.

    The religion is very clear where the rules are inflexible and 'detours' are practically unacceptable.

    In the rigid matrix of the religion, only a rigid iron hand (if you will) can succeed.

    Take any Islamic country and it will be noticed that whenever democracy has been tried it has failed. Even Pakistan is seesaw in democracy and military dictatorship. Its current democracy is in turmoil with the fundamentalist holding the nation at ransom.

    Egypt is back to a military leadership in the guise of democracy.

    Syria is in turmoil.

    Turkey is hardly a democracy.

    Therefore, it is better to let them live the way they want and not superimpose what others feel is 'right'.

    The happenings in Iraq and Syria only indicates that we are making it fair grounds for the fundamentalists to run a riot.

    Watch this space for what happen in Afghanistan and the experiment in democracy.
    Ray,
    You are a very wise man! I hope you can travel because our Generals.... well they suck and they loose alot.....so there may be a few openings here in the USA very shortly.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Took no offense my only concern is that the Army has gotten so wrapped up in the COIN debate they lost sight of really what is going on in such environments ie Iraq and Syria. The discussion of COIN failure is extremely important but more important is the discussion of a national UW and counter UW strategy as the next 20 years will be about UW as it is the center piece of both the new Russian and Chinese strategies. COIN died in Iraq and although it died--it was attempted to "win" with it in AFG because no debate concerning failure took place.

    If one looks at the WH decision to not support the more "moderate" of the Islamists in Syria with heavier weapons in order to effectively counter Assad as well as ISIS--in hindsight this was a massive mistake and Syria was lost as well as the Sunni triangle.

    Secondly, there is an interesting link that ISIS has been treated far "differently" by Assad forces than the other Islamist groups---and this might in fact be correct if one looks at the history of AQI and other Sunni groups selling HME to the JAM/SG/Mahdi groups and AQI purchasing EFPs from JAM/SGs. If one remembers the introduction of the Russian hand held and thrown RGP 3 anti tank grenade in about 2006/2207 that caused a lot of damage--it was initially introduced by AQI then transferred to the IAI ---all indicators initially pointed to it coming into Iraq via Iranian smugglers.

    And then the recent reporting of how Iran protected and moved AQ personnel in and through Iran in order to fight against the US in Iraq.

    I do know from first hand debriefs that IAI did not like AQI protecting Iranian SF agents that did come and go as early as 2005 into Iraq and were protected by AQI.
    Reference AQI in Iran---this was from a CSIS Jun 2011 AQI study.

    Following the 2001 U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan, Zarqawi led his men—now under the banner of al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (TwJ)—out of Afghanistan to set up camp in Iran.16 Arrests of Europe-based TwJ operatives in early 2002 alerted Western authorities to Zarqawi’s presence in Iran, forcing him to leave and establish new smuggling routes through Syria.

    So AQI was not some unknown item in Syria after 2002 and especially their rat runs from 2004 onwards.

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    I had monitored this particular jihadi information site from 2006 through to 2011 and I had assumed that they had gone out of business.

    They are not out of business as I had wrongly assumed.

    The Facebook link has a large number of current videos coming out of the Iraqi jihadi side.

    Definitely monitored from US agencies and the chat side is extremely active.

    http://www.hanein.info/vb/index.php
    https://www.facebook.com/Iraqe.Revolution
    https://www.facebook.com/Iraqe.Revolution/videos
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-12-2014 at 09:28 PM.

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    I have been wondering just where the Islamic Army of Iraq had disappeared to after their final victory video was released a few days after we cleared the Kuwait border.

    Then in the Mosul victory pdf (ISN) yesterday that was released by ISIS I noticed a rocket launcher being fired that was designed in early 2005 by the IAI and used by Ansar al Sunnah to fire the air to ground rocket CK5 in a March 2005 attack against the Iraqi Army headquarters in Baqubah. At that time IAI controlled over 6K C5Ks taken from a Black RG base near Baqubah in 2003 and no one had any idea how to fire them by hand since they used they were for helicopters.

    The first firing of this launcher I happen to still have on video--that is why the picture caught my attention as it was not ever really used by AQI.

    The hanein.info website was traditionally throughout the war a key IAI and related groups information site.

    Then this was found on the Facebook page---here is the IAI in their new configuration and they definitely are working together with ISIS so it is a joint venture in Mosul much as they worked together in the 2006-2010 period regardless of "political/religious" differences. The videos posted on this link have definitely the look and feel of previous IAI videos and they do not carry the black banner of ISIS much like the 2006-2010 period.

    Now the question is if the former IAI is in play and they have the deep links to the Sunni tribes---is ISIS really after control of Iraq or weapons for the fight they see between the Sunni/Shia and that is in Syria?

    General Council of the Iraqi Revolutionaries

    https://www.facebook.com/gmcir1 Check the number of likes 35K
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-12-2014 at 09:44 PM.

  11. #71
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Iraqi forces retook Baiji in Salahaddin. Early reports that the refinery and power station outside the city being taken were incorrect. Baghdad has sent special forces towards Mosul. Tikrit was taken by ISIS, attempt to re-take it by ISF failed. ISIS launched another assault upon Samarra in Salahaddin but were repulsed. Peshmerga has deployed outside of Mosul, moved into some of the disputed territories in Diyala and occupied Kirkuk city. Yesterday was the first time there were reports in the Iraqi press that the ISF was fighting back.

    Also don't forget that there is massive militia mobilization and Iran is moving into Iraq big time.
    Joel:

    What is the short term capability of ISIS to take heavy casualties? They seem to be suffering some significant losses when the ISF actually stands and fights. This is important I think because from what I've read it seems the dramatic losses of cities of late have been because of morale collapse caused by lousy leadership, so the run of luck ISIS has been having may not last...and the Iranians are coming.

    I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Carl---here is the reasoning behind my comment and JWing actually indirectly confirms my comments to be accurate.

    Where in the entire new and even in the old FM 3-24 is it in bold letters on the first page stated "Beware if the host nation does not follow the intent and goals of COIN to the exact letter the US Army follows it it is doomed to failure".

    Basically JWing is admitting that even with all the mentoring, COIN classes for their troops and officers, even being trained in our COIN image and armed as we were--nothing was absorbed as JWing admits.

    So looking back --what was exactly wrong and why was that failure not mentioned anywhere in the COIN manuals old and new?

    Interesting we as a Force always talk as if COIN was a magic potion that will always succeed-but nowhere in all the COIN chatter and FMs is discussed the possibility that in the end the target population and their governance may just not want COIN to succeed for whatever reasons---or did I miss that discussion and or did I miss that paragraph in the new FM?
    Well if you teach somebody to wash their hands after using the latrine and they don't do it and get sick, that doesn't mean washing your hands after using the latrine isn't a damn good idea.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  13. #73
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    As I am inclined to say, what a sh*t show.

    Best to get past fixing blame and start developing a policy, goals, and fixing the problem. Now.
    And the show isn't going to stop until at least 2017 when a new administration gets in, if then. The show will go on not only in Iraq but in Af-Pak therefore maybe the entire sub-continent, eastern Europe, Syria, Nigeria and everywhere off the coast of Red China, and those are only the places I can think of.

    What I hope you professional military guys are trying to figure out is how bad things are going to be by then and what will be possible, then, not before, with continued force reductions and equipment cuts. It is a very hard problem.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Default Battle of Baghdad may be starting NOW

    Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    And the show isn't going to stop until at least 2017 when a new administration gets in, if then. The show will go on not only in Iraq but in Af-Pak therefore maybe the entire sub-continent, eastern Europe, Syria, Nigeria and everywhere off the coast of Red China, and those are only the places I can think of.

    What I hope you professional military guys are trying to figure out is how bad things are going to be by then and what will be possible, then, not before, with continued force reductions and equipment cuts. It is a very hard problem.
    Actually, what I am trying to figure out is at what point I start to care. So far I see no reason to get involved. In fact, I would like to see ISIS attempt to take and hold territory. They are likely to get more resistance from the regional neighbors, some of which we have an interest in weakening.

    Perhaps the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, but I am not inclined to spill blood and waste treasure on this at the moment. Lets see how much damage the various players do to each other first.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Actually, what I am trying to figure out is at what point I start to care. So far I see no reason to get involved. In fact, I would like to see ISIS attempt to take and hold territory. They are likely to get more resistance from the regional neighbors, some of which we have an interest in weakening.

    Perhaps the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, but I am not inclined to spill blood and waste treasure on this at the moment. Lets see how much damage the various players do to each other first.
    Threat to Europe. Threat of nuke war in the sub-continent. Threat of war between Japan and Red China. Expansion of takfiri killers all over the place. Inevitable spillover to involve Israel. I'd say there is plenty of reason to care enough to start thinking on what can be done from a badly handicapped position in the beginning of 2017.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Threat to Europe. Threat of nuke war in the sub-continent. Threat of war between Japan and Red China. Expansion of takfiri killers all over the place. Inevitable spillover to involve Israel. I'd say there is plenty of reason to care enough to start thinking on what can be done from a badly handicapped position in the beginning of 2017.
    I suppose all that depends on where things stand in 2017. I was thinking more along the lines of summer, fall, and winter of 2014.

    I am not sure how ISIS/Iraq/AQ/Iran struggle turns into a threat of war between Japan and China, I am not willing to rule out the possibility of some strange involvement. My gut is that Uighurs may become embolden by ISIS, but I don't see how Japan plays into it. Stranger things have happened.

    Still, in the short term, I am all for a wait and see attitude.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Default Islamic Army

    Outlaw09 read this interview about the insurgency. Includes information on the Islamic Army. Was much speculation whether they were still around and if they had any fighters left. Most of their posts were about their cooperation with other groups rather than carrying out their own independent operations. They appear to have started attacks again.

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...interview.html

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    Default insurgency

    Carl,

    It's not only ISIS operating now but tribes, ex-Baathists, other insurgent groups. They are all coming out of the woodwork and taking advantage of the security collapse. Who knows what their numbers are right now and casualties they've taken.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.
    If I recall correctly, the plan to leave a so-called residual force hinged on delicate Status Of Forces Agreement negotiations that ended up being handled less than delicately on both sides.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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