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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #921
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    Appears the Syria moderate Islamists captured a Russian SIGINT facility that was monitoring all insurgent ops for Assad. Probably one of their most important sites outside of Russia these days.

    Embarrassing to say the least for Russian SIGINT types.

    Many had not know it was even in Syria.

    BIG - #Syria rebels captured Russian SIGINT facility in Tel al-Hara, #Deraa
    http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2014/1...y-reveals.html … (v @oryxspioenkop)
    pic.twitter.com/dbYQ3y7g4f

    On the 5th of October 2014, the Free Syrian Army captured the Центр С or المركز س 'Center C or Center S' SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) facility (logo on top) jointly operated by the Russian Osnaz GRU radio electronic intelligence agency (logo on the right) and one of the Syrian Intelligence Agencies (logo on the left). Situated near Al Hara, the facility was of vital importance for the Assad regime as it was responsible for recording and decrypting radio communications from every rebel group operating inside Syria, making it likely the Russian-gathered information at this facility was at least partially responsible for the series of killings of rebel leaders by airstrikes.

    Translation from 3:08; ''A directive issued by the surveillance office on May 31 to eavesdrop and record all radio communications of the terrorist groups, directive signed by brigadier-general Nazir Fuddah, commander of the first center''

    The facility was recently upgraded and expanded by Russia to provide Syria and Iran with situational awareness of the Middle East. After the upgrade, which took from January to mid-February, it reportedly covered the whole of Israel and Jordan and a large part of Saudi Arabia.[1] According to the report, the upgrade was a reaction to Iranian concern of the facility being too much focused on the Syrian Civil War, neglecting espionage on Israel. New equipment and additional personnel was thus added to the base.

    It is unknown if the facility is named Center C or Center S ('S' for Syria or special), it is known there's at least one other Russian-Syrian SIGINT facility around, which likely has a similar name.

    The Russian operator of this facility was the Osnaz GRU, responsible for radio electronic intelligence within Russia's Armed Forces.

  2. #922
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    Over the weekend most of Anbar fell to the insurgents including Ramadi. ISF totally collapsed there in just three days. Here's a link to my article.

  3. #923

  4. #924
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    Appears the Russian Islamist problem is coming back home to roost.

    @MoscowTimes: Kadyrov Calls Suicide Bomber Lone Wolf, Extremist Social Media Paints a Different Picture

    http://tmt-go.ru/508513

  5. #925
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    The Iraqi state news correspondent says the air strike missed the IS headquarters in the town by 70 meters.

    No joke. Source is the Iraqi state news agency.

    23 civilians killed, 42 wounded in "US coalition air strike" on the central market of Hit, hours after IS took over.

    http://ninanews.com/English/News_Det...ar95_VQ=HHEGIH

  6. #926
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    #BreakingFootage An Iranian #Mohajer_4 drone was seen flying over #Inkhil in #Daraa province.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuhhNcVgnOQ

    pic.twitter.com/7XdamO7quY

  7. #927
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    My latest security report for the month of September. Attacks have been going down since August as summer offensive has turned into stalemate in many provinces. Casualties remained extremely high however due to IS massacres in northern Iraq and the fall of Camp Saqlawiya in Anbar where 300 soldiers were killed. Here's a link.
    IS could even teach the Russians a few things about deception.

    ISW Anbar update: "ISIS aims to surround Baghdad from its belts." If succeeds ISF isolated.
    http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/2014/10/...m_medium=email
    pic.twitter.com/NQGsaQi7TL


    Everyone's looking at Kobane, but look at ISIS advances in Anbar over past 5 weeks. 40k from Baghdad.

    http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/2014/10/...m_medium=email

  8. #928
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    New U.N. human rights report document IS's attempt to tear apart Iraqi society. Has targeted every group in territory under its control from security forces, to Sunnis to Shiites to Christians to Shabaks To Yazidis to Turkmen to Kurds. Here's a link.

  9. #929
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    Default Baghdad: time to consider the worst

    Joel and others.

    Thinking out aloud.

    What would happen if ISIS and allies got closer to Baghdad? Defeating ISF and non-ISF militias (if you can separate them now).

    Ever encircling the city, but not trying to enter.

    That would certainly concentrate the minds and actions of the coalition, above all I expect Iran.
    davidbfpo

  10. #930
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    My latest on reports of increased militia attacks upon Sunni civilians.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Joel and others.

    Thinking out aloud.

    What would happen if ISIS and allies got closer to Baghdad? Defeating ISF and non-ISF militias (if you can separate them now).

    Ever encircling the city, but not trying to enter.

    That would certainly concentrate the minds and actions of the coalition, above all I expect Iran.
    No clue on how this play out, but I suspect the U.S. will be more careful about drawing another redline it has no intention of enforcing. I also doubt that any country in Europe will do much beyond provide arms unless it is under the auspices of U.S. leadership. As you noted Iran certainly has interests in maintaining their influence, since we basically handed them significant influence in Iraq. Just as importantly I suspect every other nation on Iraq's border has concerns about IS taking control of Baghdad, though I suspect in most cases their interests are conflicted, such as they want to contain Iran and limit the impact the of Sunni extremists that will likely destabilize their regimes. They need leaders willing to make hard decisions, which could result in strange bedfellows temporarily aligned to address immediate threats to common interests.

  12. #932
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    David

    IS appears to be following almost the exact same plan that Zarqawi had of surrounding Baghdad in the belts and then launching direct attacks upon the capital with street fights, etc. They have been very successful in doing this so far especially in the west and south. This is only going to work so far however as Baghdad is overwhelmingly Shiite after the sectarian cleansing that happened after the last civil war. IS is probably already building up its networks in Sunni neighborhoods, but when they start making more direct assaults I expect a repeat of that last civil war which is Shiites cleansing the capital. That's already happening in parts of Babil, Salahaddin and Diyala right now. It's only going to get worse.

  13. #933
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    @Brown_Moses Russian espionage network in Syria exposed as more facilities are uncovered

    http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2014/10/russia

    Mod adds

    Above link didn't work for me, this did:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2014...-in-syria.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-09-2014 at 08:56 PM. Reason: Add link

  14. #934
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    Default The Islamic State’s Anbar Offensive and Abu Umar al-Shishani

    From WoTR by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross:http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the...r-al-shishani/

    ISIL’s Anbar advance illustrates some of the group’s strengths, but the group remains vulnerable in many important ways. The group’s recent success in Anbar can be attributed primarily to one exceptional field commander and ISIL official, Abu Umar al-Shishani, who executed a series of brilliant tactical maneuvers. But Shishani’s leadership could not save them from setbacks elsewhere in Iraq. And even the group’s much-publicized advance on the northern Syrian town of Kobane, though it represents a real gain of territory, represents a strategically questionable decision. ISIL is a highly competent fighting force, especially when Shishani is the one giving orders, that continues to make significant strategic errors. This article provides a granular look at ISIL’s Anbar offensive.
    davidbfpo

  15. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    David

    IS appears to be following almost the exact same plan that Zarqawi had of surrounding Baghdad in the belts and then launching direct attacks upon the capital with street fights, etc. They have been very successful in doing this so far especially in the west and south. This is only going to work so far however as Baghdad is overwhelmingly Shiite after the sectarian cleansing that happened after the last civil war. IS is probably already building up its networks in Sunni neighborhoods, but when they start making more direct assaults I expect a repeat of that last civil war which is Shiites cleansing the capital. That's already happening in parts of Babil, Salahaddin and Diyala right now. It's only going to get worse.
    If the Shia purge the remaining Sunnis in Baghdad it seems that would serve as a recruiting tool for the IS (even beyond Iraq)? Also, aren't we ultimately talking about a potential hybrid assault on Baghdad? Zarqawi had to rely on terrorist tactics that promoted civil conflict amongst militias that were principally armed with small arms, but IS now has tanks, artillery, etc., so do you anticipate a different kind of fight, and do you think the Iraqi army has the stomach to hold Baghdad?

  16. #936
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    I think these reports are interesting since they convey intent, and if the report on the use of Chlorine gas to kill up to 300 Iraqi soldiers is correct (though I remain suspect, since AQI used chlorine gas during OIF and it didn't have much impact, if they cracked the code for making it effective, then we need to relook our protective gear for chemical attacks).

    http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the...r-al-shishani/

    The Islamic State’s Anbar Offensive and Abu Umar al-Shishani

    Using chlorine gas and captured Iraqi military vehicles, Shishani was able to massacre 300 to 500 Iraqi troops and bring 180 back to Fallujah as prisoners. This was the biggest ISIL victory in two months and a major blow against the state of Iraq.
    http://www.alsumaria.tv/news/111477/...84%D9%83%D9%84

    Use Google translate it opens in Arabic, assuming you can't read Arabic

    Alsumaria News / Baghdad
    confirmed the number of MPs from the province of Diwaniyah , on Monday, killing 300 soldiers using chlorine gas for the first time by the militants, " Daash "in Saqlawiyah, north of Fallujah , and, as they carried the responsibility of the deaths of the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces Haider Abadi and the operations chief of Anbar, because of the slow pace of rescue despite frequent appeals for several days, considered a crime Saqlawiyah as Spyker second. said MP Ali al-Badri, at a press conference at the parliament building in the presence of a number of deputies Diwaniyah province, and attended by "Alsumaria News", "organizing Daash terrorist Chlorine gas was used for the first time in the region of Saqlawiyah after trapping More than 400 soldiers, killing many of them due to suffocation while terrorist gangs detonated car bombs within the brigade headquarters. "

    http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.o...FLists%2FPosts

    ISIL Determined to Acquire Biological Weapons

    The U.S. military has evidence that Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria are seeking biological weapons, an Army official said Oct. 7.

    "Intelligence has recently discovered that ISIS intends to pursue biological agents and also is trying to figure out how to weaponize bubonic plague through the use of infected animals," said Brig. Gen. Maria Gervais, head of the Army's Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear School.
    None of the above is surprising, analysts have been predicting this for years, and I know we have done a fair amount to prepare for the unthinkable, but on the other hand it makes me wonder why we're doing such a half butted effort to degrade ISIL. We started bombing them, now in their view they have the moral high ground to attack our homelands, and this could be an indicator on how they desire to attack. We waste our time targeting their leaders, but as IDF noted in an interview with one author it is critical we identify and eliminate their innovators.

  17. #937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    I think these reports are interesting since they convey intent, and if the report on the use of Chlorine gas to kill up to 300 Iraqi soldiers is correct (though I remain suspect, since AQI used chlorine gas during OIF and it didn't have much impact, if they cracked the code for making it effective, then we need to relook our protective gear for chemical attacks).

    http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the...r-al-shishani/

    The Islamic State’s Anbar Offensive and Abu Umar al-Shishani



    http://www.alsumaria.tv/news/111477/...84%D9%83%D9%84

    Use Google translate it opens in Arabic, assuming you can't read Arabic

    Alsumaria News / Baghdad
    confirmed the number of MPs from the province of Diwaniyah , on Monday, killing 300 soldiers using chlorine gas for the first time by the militants, " Daash "in Saqlawiyah, north of Fallujah , and, as they carried the responsibility of the deaths of the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces Haider Abadi and the operations chief of Anbar, because of the slow pace of rescue despite frequent appeals for several days, considered a crime Saqlawiyah as Spyker second. said MP Ali al-Badri, at a press conference at the parliament building in the presence of a number of deputies Diwaniyah province, and attended by "Alsumaria News", "organizing Daash terrorist Chlorine gas was used for the first time in the region of Saqlawiyah after trapping More than 400 soldiers, killing many of them due to suffocation while terrorist gangs detonated car bombs within the brigade headquarters. "

    http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.o...FLists%2FPosts

    ISIL Determined to Acquire Biological Weapons



    None of the above is surprising, analysts have been predicting this for years, and I know we have done a fair amount to prepare for the unthinkable, but on the other hand it makes me wonder why we're doing such a half butted effort to degrade ISIL. We started bombing them, now in their view they have the moral high ground to attack our homelands, and this could be an indicator on how they desire to attack. We waste our time targeting their leaders, but as IDF noted in an interview with one author it is critical we identify and eliminate their innovators.

    Here is the importance of taking Anbar for IS:

    If ISIS wins Anbar, they can "establish a supply line from Syria almost to Baghdad" and launch attacks on the capital

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e

  18. #938
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    Chechen IS leader and one of their best battlefield types "declares" war on Russia---and based on how Russian has been treating the Crimean Tartars this past six months, and Russian Muslims in general--he might in fact become a serious threat o Russia.

    From RIA today:---his threat is even carried by Russian media.

    MOSCOW, October 10 (RIA Novosti) - In a telephone conversation with his father, an Islamic State (IS) commander, Tarkhan Batirashvili, also known as Omar al-Shishani or Omar the Chechen, stated that the militant group plans to invade Russia, Bloomberg reported.

    "He said "don't worry dad, I'll come home and show the Russians,'" Bloomberg quoted Temur Batirashvili, the father of the IS commander, as saying Thursday.

    "I have many thousands following me now and I'll get more. We'll have our revenge against Russia," Omar the Chechen told his father, according to Bloomberg.

    In September, the IS issued a video threatening to include Chechnya into its self-proclaimed Islamic caliphate.

    In late September, Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov wrote on his Instagram account that Russia had enough power and the means to stop terrorists from crossing its borders. "Taking all responsibility, I declare that those who have voiced a threat against Russia or who have mentioned the name of our President Vladimir Putin will be destroyed right where they made their statement. We will not wait for them to get behind the steering wheel of a plane. They will go where his fellow terrorists are rotting," Kadyrov wrote.

    Several hundred individuals from the United States and Canada, as well as about 500 Britons are believed to be fighting for the IS. There are also militants from other countries among IS fighters.

    The IS, a sectarian Sunni Muslim militia, is also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). It seized large parts of Iraq and Syria and proclaimed an Islamic caliphate on the areas under its control. Its rapid advance in northern Iraq triggered a response from Washington, which launched airstrikes against the insurgents fighting on the Iraqi soil in August. The military campaign was subsequently extended to Syria, with an international coalition set up to defeat the extremists.

    According to the US State Department, the coalition currently comprises more than 60 countries, including Arab League members and a number of European countries.

  19. #939
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    If the Shia purge the remaining Sunnis in Baghdad it seems that would serve as a recruiting tool for the IS (even beyond Iraq)? Also, aren't we ultimately talking about a potential hybrid assault on Baghdad? Zarqawi had to rely on terrorist tactics that promoted civil conflict amongst militias that were principally armed with small arms, but IS now has tanks, artillery, etc., so do you anticipate a different kind of fight, and do you think the Iraqi army has the stomach to hold Baghdad?
    Many of the militias are decked out with heavier weapons these days via Iran. Trucks w/ recoiless rifles & rockets, heavy mortars, etc. And Tehran would step in even more if fighting went bad in Baghdad. Even without that I don't see the city going down.

  20. #940
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    Good critique of current US led air campaign in Iraq and Syria by Derek Harvey on PBS Newshour.

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