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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #81
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    I suppose all that depends on where things stand in 2017. I was thinking more along the lines of summer, fall, and winter of 2014.

    I am not sure how ISIS/Iraq/AQ/Iran struggle turns into a threat of war between Japan and China, I am not willing to rule out the possibility of some strange involvement. My gut is that Uighurs may become embolden by ISIS, but I don't see how Japan plays into it. Stranger things have happened.

    Still, in the short term, I am all for a wait and see attitude.
    The situation between Red China and Japan stands on its own. All this stuff happens to be happening at the same time.

    We are all bound to wait and see at least until the beginning of 2017. The current administration will do nothing but wait and see.

    My point is nothing but thinking and figuring can be done until then and I would be pleased if you professional soldier guys started contemplating.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    The situation between Red China and Japan stands on its own. All this stuff happens to be happening at the same time.

    We are all bound to wait and see at least until the beginning of 2017. The current administration will do nothing but wait and see.

    My point is nothing but thinking and figuring can be done until then and I would be pleased if you professional soldier guys started contemplating.
    Carl, your point is valid. Unfortunately most military and policy types are taught to look at problems locally within defined area, or focus on specific groups. It is the weakness in our center of gravity approach to planning where we conveniently ignore the whole and how the pieces interact intentionally and unintentionally. Most countries will exploit emerging opportunities to put their adversaries at a disadvantage. Usually they'll do so below the radar, but Russia just changed its relationship with North Korea and started exercising with the Chinese navy. They also are flying bombers off our coast and challenging our Aircraft.

    Any Russian or Chinese support to any actor in the middle east is part of a strategic chess game based on long term strategic interests. Our military on the other hand only sees terrorists and wonder what they can accomplish with air power. Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.
    Seems to me that ISIS has a nice AfPak situation going for itself knowing that Assad is going to cry bloody murder if there’s a U.S. drone strike inside Syrian airspace that he can’t deny happened. I can’t imagine that that would be worth the long term effects it might have.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    "The army forces threw away their weapons and changed their clothes and left their vehicles and left the city," said Mahmud Nuri, a displaced Mosul resident. "We didn't see anyone fire a shot."

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Secur...moment-in-Iraq
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.
    JWing---now you point to something that is extremely interesting--is ISIS really after Baghdad or is it a feint in order to do exactly what you mention.

    In Syria it has been Hezbollah and Iranian SF together with JAM/SG units that have been the backbone of the Assad Army.

    By forcing the Hezbollah, Iran and JAM/SG to reposition away serves ISIS on the Syrian battlefield--notice ISIS was/is more interested in holding Syrian territory and avoid directly confronting the SA as the other Islamists have been doing. Syria is to them the epicenter for the final Shia/Sunni clash.

    From battle videos coming out---massive amounts of equipment especially artillery, HMMW 114s, AAA, and trucks and the older MRAPs were driven immediately towards Syria---the rest were burned. Why burn when you can use them for the march to Baghdad and there is street to street MOUT. The ISIS really love their utilities. With one "surge" they have completely rearmed and refitted without outside help and beholden to no one-impressive.

    In attempting to hold Baghdad they awake a far larger majority ie the entire Shia nation and regardless how aggressive they are the sheer Shia numbers will eventually overwhelm ---IMO they really want the Sunni triangle and the oil resources there which have been at the heart of the Sunni population complaints since 2010.

    That is why I say IAI is back in action as they were always military focused due to a high number of former officers and Iraqi security officers and their close ties to the Sunni tribes which you are correct about---the tribes have walked away from the "Awakening" as in the end it was a fail move on their part years ago-it brought them nothing from Malaki but it did bring grief to their leaders.

    What really interests me is the ISIS use of aggressive fast moving swarming attacks in ways that they initially showed us in the late 2000s which were small small--by the way those attacks were always a joint IAI/AQI attack--this is solid battlefield tactical movements that we the US Army probably could not today even come close to doing---that type of attack formation hit the 1st Cav hard in Diyala 2006/2007.

    This is reforming the ME literally overnight and our foreign policy in the area is now totally in tatters as we somehow never seem to think long term and we shy away from even coming close to moderate Islamists of which there a few that would talk to us. We need to finally understand that populations will make their own decisions about their futures and sometimes it is not in our direction but that is OK if we can at least talk with them long term.

    What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2014 at 06:35 AM.

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    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.
    The Maoists and the m267 movement had already built the bones of a legitimate government over the course of the previous years and that was there for them when they seized control of the state. Even if ISIS were able to take Baghdad, is there any indication that they have done something similar? They seem to have set up some sort of bureaucracy in the areas under their control, but is there evidence that the local residents have bought what they are selling?
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Carl, your point is valid. Unfortunately most military and policy types are taught to look at problems locally within defined area, or focus on specific groups. It is the weakness in our center of gravity approach to planning where we conveniently ignore the whole and how the pieces interact intentionally and unintentionally. Most countries will exploit emerging opportunities to put their adversaries at a disadvantage. Usually they'll do so below the radar, but Russia just changed its relationship with North Korea and started exercising with the Chinese navy. They also are flying bombers off our coast and challenging our Aircraft.

    Any Russian or Chinese support to any actor in the middle east is part of a strategic chess game based on long term strategic interests. Our military on the other hand only sees terrorists and wonder what they can accomplish with air power. Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

    Bill--amen to the last sentence--extremely accurate comment to strategic long term foreign relations by the Russians and Chinese.

    By the way--surprised we have not totally shifted the entire drone fleet to the skies over Iraq---we fully understand how to fight an air war with just armed drones and recon drones as hunter/killer teams since Libya.

    IMO the US has not even begun to fully understand the latest Russian and Chinese strategic doctrinal shifts which are a direct challenge to the US in coming years.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2014 at 06:43 AM.

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    Default ISF equipment going to Syria & Baghdad

    Not only did ISIS ship a bunch of captured equipment to Syria but Jabhat al-Nusra went into Ninewa today and grabbed some stuff as well.

    And yes ISIS is heading towards Baghdad. Their main goal is to overthrow the government. They seemed to have forgotten all the militias with Iranian support that defeated them last time. This time Baghdad is even more Shiite then the last civil war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Not only did ISIS ship a bunch of captured equipment to Syria but Jabhat al-Nusra went into Ninewa today and grabbed some stuff as well.

    And yes ISIS is heading towards Baghdad. Their main goal is to overthrow the government. They seemed to have forgotten all the militias with Iranian support that defeated them last time. This time Baghdad is even more Shiite then the last civil war.
    JWing---if they are going they have discovered something the West missed--and it might be an accurate assessment by ISIS---there is not longer a deep pool of aggressive JAM/SG groups left in Baghdad---they are all in Syria---Malaki is trying to arm Baghdad residents---subtle why would be a good question.

    It really does look like Malaki was being a bit big headed when he suggested/"allowed" JAM and the SGs to head to Syria in support to Assad and at the beckoning of Iran---not only were there good experienced fighters sent--arms and munitions as well. Iran is now forced to reinforce Assad via the air routes as ground transportation has all but been stopped by ISIS.

    Now with the Army folding and definitely not having the stomach for a street to street fight those Shia forces in Syria now have to make the long ground run from Syria but with ISIS controlling the routes --virtually impossible to swing back to Baghdad in a timely fashion.

    Looks like he is being massively criticized now by leading Shia political types for actually provoking the Sunni response and his heavy hand with them --yesterday the Iraqi parliament refused to give him is martial law bill which would have made him a virtual dictator even more so than Saddam.

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    New ISIS record ----and now they are financially far more wealthy than the mothership AQ.

    When they took Mosul they raided the Iraqi National Bank there immediately---taken was a total sum of get this;

    380 million Euros or roughly 500M USDs.

    A comfortable war chest if one asks me now they can go on a world wide recruiting binge and actually pay for it.

    Their previous record for releasing prisoners at 4500 seems to have been outdistanced by this bank robbery.

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    Default Cordesman says

    A short analysis via the BBC and it ends with:
    Mr Maliki has emerged as something approaching the Shia equivalent of Saddam Hussein, and is as much a threat to Iraq as ISIS.

    Iraq desperately needs a truly national leader and one who puts the nation above himself.


    Without one, ISIS may become a lasting enclave and regional threat - dividing Iraq into Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish sections - or drag Iraq back to the worst days of its civil war and create another Syria in Iraq.

    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27801680
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A short analysis via the BBC and it ends with:


    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27801680
    David---three things will be happening in short order;

    1. the Biden plan of three ethnic enclaves will occur
    2. ISIS and many are overlooking this piece is currently only operating with approx. 600-1000 depending on the head count and who is doing the counting with some realistic numbers in the mid 600 range---so who is carrying the brunt of the actual street to street fighting---it looks like the Sunni tribes together with the renamed IAI the Military Council of Iraqi Revolutionaries
    The Iraqi military is absolutely incapable of street to street fighting so they resort to artillery fire and barrel bombs which then creates even more Sunni anger
    3. there is a replacement for Malaki who even has the respect of the Sunni tribes---that is Sistanni the Shia religious leader who has sidestepped becoming political he is about the only Shia left in Iraq that talk to the Sunni side and be believed

    Malaki has failed to listen to four calls over the last year from Biden, failed to listen to the UN Moon just recently and has not heeded the calls from some influential Shia leaders to reconcile with the Sunni's who many in the Shia community now understand they themselves have overreached on.

    There is some interesting comments that Malaki maybe tied to deeply with Iran and thus cannot even begin to consider a dialogue.

  13. #93
    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    The situation between Red China and Japan stands on its own. All this stuff happens to be happening at the same time.

    We are all bound to wait and see at least until the beginning of 2017. The current administration will do nothing but wait and see.

    My point is nothing but thinking and figuring can be done until then and I would be pleased if you professional soldier guys started contemplating.
    I disagree with your base assumption that the current administration will do nothing. I actually believe the current administration is acting far more prudently than the previous administrations that, arguably, are directly responsible for ISIS having a slice of Iraq.

    Most of us are always contiplating what can be done. That is not the real question. The question is what SHOULD be done. We can kill AQ or Taliban leadership with drones. The question is, should we? What is the result? Who comes next? Is that better, or worse, than the previous option?

    At this point a number of entities that I would like to see weakened are fighting amongst themselves. While I am obviously interested in the situation, I do not see any reason to alter the dynamics, particularly if we really want a long-term presence in Iraq. My guess is that we will use Drones. I sincerely hope that we do not get involved at all at this point.

    Yes, this is a bit of a game of chicken, but I am still in favor of watching things unfold for a bit longer before taking any action.

    I am still of the opinion that it is easy to lead a jihad, it is harder to govern a large territory. That we can do more to weaken ISIS by letting them try to hold and govern a swath of Syria/Iraq than we can by giving them the moral victory of being engaged directly by the Great Satin (ops, wrong group).

    Particularly when the stories leak out of how life really is in an ISIS controlled area. My guess is that fewer people in the Levant will be interested in coming under their control once they see how they actually rule.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 06-13-2014 at 03:04 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    I disagree with your base assumption that the current administration will do nothing. I actually believe the current administration is acting far more prudently than the previous administrations that, arguably, are directly responsible for ISIS having a slice of Iraq.

    Most of us are always contiplating what can be done. That is not the real question. The question is what SHOULD be done. We can kill AQ or Taliban leadership with drones. The question is, should we? What is the result? Who comes next? Is that better, or worse, than the previous option?

    At this point a number of entities that I would like to see weakened are fighting amongst themselves. While I am obviously interested in the situation, I do not see any reason to alter the dynamics, particularly if we really want a long-term presence in Iraq.

    Yes, this is a bit of a game of chicken, but I am still in favor of watching things unfold for a bit longer before taking any action.
    We lost our ability to "influence" Iraq with the 2005 national elections--when 60% of the country is Shia, the Shia won the election, and their neighbors Iran and Syria are Shia---where is there a snow balls chance in heaven in "influencing".

    Example---we fly our entire drone fleet and park it over Iraq---we decimate ISIS and the other Sunni tribes, but who in the end gains--Malaki who is "our true friend" while the Iranian Republican Guard troops and SF troops sent by Iran to help him to remain where--in and near Baghdad---what happens then to "influence"?

    After 4.7K KIAs, thousands of WIAs, 34B in equipment and training and trillions in rebuilding efforts if that does not gain us any "influence" then it is time to go home for good and let the three ethnic entities settle the problem themselves.

    At some point they will and yes Russia and Iran will come out smelling like roses and the oil flowing will go to China and Russia even though those in the Bush second administration did promise us the American taxpayer that hey the Iraqi oil would pay for our trillions we spent. Yeah right?......that happened with that idea? Maybe the paintings of our previous President if sold at auction might cover some of the VA hospital costs.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2014 at 03:07 PM.

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    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    We lost our ability to "influence" Iraq with the 2005 national elections--when 60% of the country is Shia, the Shia won the election, and their neighbors Iran and Syria are Shia---where is there a snow balls chance in heaven in "influencing".
    The Syrian government is in Alawite hands, but 3/4 of the Syrian population is Sunni.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ganulv View Post
    The Syrian government is in Alawite hands, but 3/4 of the Syrian population is Sunni.
    The country is still the last time I checked 13 June 2014 it is still in the hands of Shia (Alawite's are a sub Shia grouping) with Iranian and Russian support---correct?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2014 at 04:09 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    They too have had an 'iron hand' given their history.

    However, it is interesting to note that their currency carries the image of 'Ganesha' a Hindu idol.



    That is blasphemy in Islam!
    Ray since 1998 when Suharto stepped down have you seen any of these turn to a strongman tendencies in Indonesia that you say are inherent in Muslim culture?

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    Default Militias & Iran are back in Iraq

    Outlaw 09

    Many of the Iraqi militiamen who were fighting in Syria were shifted back to Iraq months ago. Militias have already been fighting insurgents in Fallujah, Abu Ghraib and parts of Diyala. Early this morning Hakim said that he was sending Supreme Council fighters to support the Defense Ministry. Sadr said he supported people protecting the Shiite shrines which would obviously include Samarra in Salahaddin. IRGC Quds Force Cmdr Gen. Suleimani is in Baghdad right now. They are all gearing up to fight the insurgents started from Samarra down to Baghdad.

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    Default Syria not Shiite

    Outlaw 09

    Assad is an Alawite and despite press reports that is not Shiite. That's like saying Shiite are really Sunnis because they are just an offshoot. Syria was also one of the main supporters of the insurgency for years so saying that Shiite rule in Iraq after 03 created this united Shiite arc from Iran to Iraq to Syria is incorrect. Maliki only decided to back Assad when the civil war started and Islamists started fighting the government. Maliki hated Assad but made an alliance of convenience because ISIS and others were seen as worse, Enemy of my enemy stuff going on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    Outlaw 09

    Many of the Iraqi militiamen who were fighting in Syria were shifted back to Iraq months ago. Militias have already been fighting insurgents in Fallujah, Abu Ghraib and parts of Diyala. Early this morning Hakim said that he was sending Supreme Council fighters to support the Defense Ministry. Sadr said he supported people protecting the Shiite shrines which would obviously include Samarra in Salahaddin. IRGC Quds Force Cmdr Gen. Suleimani is in Baghdad right now. They are all gearing up to fight the insurgents started from Samarra down to Baghdad.
    Just think - Iranian Quds troops could be fighting to gain control of terrain in Iraq with air support provided by US Drones.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

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