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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #981
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    Just published new security report for 2nd wk of Oct in Iraq. Attacks remain low since high of summer offensive. Series of deadly car bombs throughout central Iraq increased casualties for the week however. IS on offensive in Anbar and Salahaddin still. Other provinces trying to hold ground against security ops. Read more here.

  2. #982
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    New security report for 3rd week of Oct out. IS still making charge across Anbar. ISF are offensive in Babil and Salahaddin. Comprehensive run down of attacks and casualties across Iraq. Here's a link.

  3. #983
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    About 90 years ago, Britain created just such a state that was named 'Transjordan'.

    For the first 40 years of its existence, this was completely dependable on British financial support.

    ...which is a reason more to wonder why is Obama showing such restraint and even 'understanding for higher Iranian national interests' - in upholding the Assadist regime in Syria.

    There is no explanation for this... well, except Iran has what a pal of mine tends to call 'assets not publicly known'. Though, existence of such would then really 'explain everything'.

    *********
    BTW, Outlaw: I am still waiting for a 'translation' of your question above. No problem to answer it - all provided I would understand it.
    with oil heading to 60 per barrel---there is no impact on Iran--come on...AND Opec increasing pumping and not worrying about 60 per barrel--can Iran get up not really.....

  4. #984
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    I'm at home sick from work but I was still able to write a short piece on how Premier Abadi has announced that the fake bomb detectors will finally be replaced in Iraq. These have been one of the biggest corruption scandals in Iraq that have cost the lives of thousands. It's a small but important move by the new premier. Here's a link.

  5. #985
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    Please read my latest interview. I talked with Abu Abed, ex-Sahwa leader from Amiriya, Baghdad. Here's a link.

  6. #986
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    Default The Collapse of Order in the Middle East

    A rather sharp critique of US policy in the Middle East, by a ret'd US diplomat (who last served twenty years ago):http://chasfreeman.net/the-collapse-...e-middle-east/

    Here is a taster:
    We are trying to cope with the cumulative consequences of multiple failures. Just about every American project in the Middle East has now come a cropper.

    (Later) We have a military campaign plan but lack a political program. We are bombing Da`ish to contain it. There is little reason to believe this will prove effective. Based on past experience, there is no reason to believe it will evolve into a strategy....Da`ish displays unity of command, strong discipline, and elevated morale. The coalition we have assemble to oppose it has no agreed objectives. It is divided, disjointed, and demoralized.
    davidbfpo

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    It will get worse. I have some background on the Islamic angle.

    http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...and-so-on.html

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    Iraq's Sunnis won't fight ISIS for the U.S. says NIQASH, a non-profit media organization operating out of Berlin. Without Sunni support, America's war in Iraq cannot succeed. Here's why.

    Negotiations Fail

    According to NIQASH, a source at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad said there have been secret negotiations between various Sunni Muslim armed factions, via Arab and Iraqi Kurdish intermediaries, for the past three months. At the request of U.S. diplomats and military personnel, Shia officials from the Iraqi government have also been meeting with the leaders of these groups in Erbil, Kurdistan and Amman, Jordan.

    At the same time General John Allen, the Obama's appointed coordinator of U.S. efforts in Iraq, has been trying to contact the Sunni tribal leaders he worked with in Anbar during the previous war's "Awakening." "But it was surprising," a NIQASH source reported, "Most of General Allen's former allies refused to cooperate with us. And some of them are actually now living outside of Iraq because of the Iraqi government's policies."

    Oops. With some irony, America's failure to secure the 2006 Awakening caused those Sunnis sympathetic to America's aims to flee Shia persecution. Those "good guys" are thus not available in 2014 to help out America in the current war.

  9. #989
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    Just published my weekly security report covering Oct. Attacks and casualties were slightly up in Oct compared to Sep. IS faced its first major setback losing Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil. ISF also on offensive in Salahaddin and peshmerga in Ninewa. IS on the other hand still trying to take rest of Anbar and Mount Sinjar. Was significant month because Iraqis able to take important ground from IS for first time. Here's a link.

  10. #990
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A rather sharp critique of US policy in the Middle East, by a ret'd US diplomat (who last served twenty years ago):http://chasfreeman.net/the-collapse-...e-middle-east/

    Here is a taster:
    Hard to believe anybody is as bold as to say it THAT clearly.

    But then, of course: the author is already in retirement (so nothing bad can happen in return, and nobody listens).

  11. #991
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    Default Decentralization: The Future of ISIS

    Decentralization: The Future of ISIS

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    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

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    The Albu Nimr tribe in Anbar which has been fighting the insurgency since 04 is facing mass arrests and executions by the Islamic State. Read what happened in my latest article here.

  13. #993
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    Default The Kurds fight With Daesh (ISIS)

    Crowbat referred to Kurds fighting with and for ISIS now two weeks ago, which rather puzzled me - even allowing for the impact of radicalisation. A Kurdish contact responded:
    There are kurds within and supporting ISIS. Although the this is not typical of kurdish political views. The vast majority are secular and vehemently opposed to such organisations.... I understand, the majority of those involved in ISIS are from a particular region, Halabja, in the kurdistan region of Iraq. This is, no doubt, connected to tribal, or religious networks in this are, which probably extend into Iran.
    Just spotted a lengthy article on Stripes:http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-e...VTCtf4.twitter

    It comments include why Halabja, a town gassed by Saddam Hussein, in 1988:
    Halabja was known as a secular village and the home of Abdullah Goran, one of the best-known Kurdish poets in the 20th century and a member of the Iraqi Communist Party. But in the past three decades, Muslim preachers have become active and have turned it into one of Iraqi Kurdistan's most religiously conservative areas....(How many?) Some 70 Iraqi Kurds...
    davidbfpo

  14. #994
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    David, sigh... I can't talk about the source, but consider this 'first hand': more than 300 Kurds were recruited for the Daesh alone in Evin Prison, in Tehran, in 2013.

    So, somebody talking about '70'.... that's as silly as declaring majority of Kurds for 'secular'. Vast majority of Kurds are Sunni Moslems (even Wikipedia 'knows' this).

    That is: except your source meant, '70 from specific village/minor town', of course.

    *************

    EDIT: the Austrian Ministry of Interior has published its data on Austrians that joined the Daesh so far.

    154 went there, 64 came back, some 20+ are known to have been killed so far.

    Anybody there seriously attempting to sell the story there are less Kurds fighting for the Daesh than Austrians...?
    Last edited by CrowBat; 11-05-2014 at 10:26 PM.

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    There have always been Kurds in al-Qaeda in Iraq, so this shouldn't be a surprise. Of course we prefer the simple answers, Arabs bad, Kurds good. There are Sunni, Shia, and Christian Kurds, and who knows there are probably a few Buddhist converts. In all seriousness though we need to avoid over generalizations.

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    Default Obama to Seek Congressional Backing for Military Campaign Against ISIS

    Obama to Seek Congressional Backing for Military Campaign Against ISIS

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  17. #997
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    Default Not as strange as fiction

    Citing Crowbat (in part):
    more than 300 Kurds were recruited for the Daesh alone in Evin Prison, in Tehran, in 2013.
    I am aware that Iran has a Kurdish community, although not one noted to my knowledge for being a violent insurgency. So there are Kurds in the Iranian prison system, whether for criminal or political reasons. IIRC Evin Prison is for political prisoners, Wiki states only a 'wing' is so used:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evin_Prison

    So Kurds were covertly recruited in the prison, that I can follow as few prisons have total control - though a political wing can be different (as Israel has shown). I am wary about such a prison allowing 'radical' Islamists to flourish. Those recruited presumably hate the Iranian regime and have cause to wage war upon release - making their way to Iraq / Syria to join Daesh.
    davidbfpo

  18. #998
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    A pessimistic analysis from Jane's, on both Sunni and Shia opponents of Daesh:http://www.janes.com/article/45284/s...-islamic-state

    Here is one passage:
    ...neither the Peshmerga nor Shia militias have either the means or legitimacy to assert authority over the substantial swaths of predominantly Sunni territory that the Islamic State currently controls in conjunction with local Sunni insurgents.

    In short, the current array of Sunni groups and forces opposed to the Islamic State across Iraq is too weak and too localised, and is lacking in the wider credibility required to constitute an effective fighting force.
    davidbfpo

  19. #999
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    The main group affiliated with Al Qaeda pre-2003 in Iraq was Ansar al-Islam which was a Kurdish Islamist group. Zarqawi later set up camp with them and they were folded into his organization. It should be no surprise then that there are still Kurdish Islamists involved in the Islamic State.

  20. #1000
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    In eastern Salahaddin is Tuz Kharmato district. It was abandoned by the ISF in June and parts of it were taken over by the peshmerga but just the KUrdish regions. IS surrounded a Shiite Turkmen town called Amerli there, which was later relieved by a joint ISF, militia & peshmerga force. Afterward the militias set about cleansing the entire district of Sunnis by killing civilians, looting and blowing up and burning their homes. Now militias and Kurds are fighting for control of area which has led to more and more confrontations with minor skirmishes and casualties. Read more here.

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