I have a hard time believing that you could suggest this with any seriousness. Given the enormity of the cyberwar waged by Russia (and I acknowledge that other countries have undertaken similar campaigns), where are the images of Ukrainian Buks with embedded geolocation tags? Where are the ill-timed tweets by Ukrainian military commanders?Originally Posted by mirhond
biggus---not one being up to date on air space management but does not the closing of the Rostov air space via their ATC in fact close that particular set of routes on the Ukrainian side that would cross into the Rostov air space causing at least reroutes?
Something caused the terrorist at the crash site to be astounded about civilian aircraft overhead.
or comrade non Russian expert mirhond ---it was Martians like those "little green men" Putin "claimed" were not in the Crimea then later "remembered" of course they were there---remember you denied they were there as well comrade.
so again comrade mirhond you seemed to ignore the photos, videos, and voice intercepts that indicate clearly Russian mercenaries downed the aircraft---by the way the SBU has now confirmed the name of the junior officer who gave the command to fire and I believe he was in fact a Russian irregular--how about that mirhond.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2014 at 05:29 PM.
comrade now so poorly informed expert mirhond---see you seem to be behind in the speed of reporting---there were now being reported by those "zealous Christians" of 223 bodies but just hours earlier they "claimed" 193---so who is actually in control mirhond and by the way the train still has not left because the "zealous Christians" have been given commands to collect all evidence and get rid of it as well as the black boxes. and they are not sure what to do with the bodies.
you still have not indicated where those "zealous Cossacks Christians" took the 36 bodies they looted and stole from my friend.
commands for the cover up are "from higher in Moscow" --so yes the Russian mercenaries have now in cell calls admitted they are tied to Moscow and are receiving commands from "higher in Moscow".
comrade mirhond get with the program and at least be up to date with your information.
so comrade uninformed expert mirhond---here is an undisputed---well at least it will be by you, the Russian mercenaries on the cell call, and Putin naturally.
NOW comrade mirhond---cover up or no cover up and who "is the higher up in Moscow" they are referring to my friend?
it appears the "higher up" in Msocow wants a cover up and hide the black boxes after the Russian Foreign Minister flatly stated they are to remain in the Ukraine did he not---oh forgot you do not read Interfax do you? AND Putin called for an international investigation did he not?
it is in Russian so there is no confusion for you and in English so you are practice your English---listen well my friend and weep ---again what is the difference between an Islamic jihadi and a Russian mercenary mirhond---the jihadi does not use his cell phone for business. but of course you know that already---maybe you can call Donetsk and at least inform them they are being monitored.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ssu-356979.html
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2014 at 05:47 PM.
Outlaw,
How do you see the incident, and your insistence of total Russian guilt in the matter, affecting the outcome of the conflict, if at all?
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
comrade mirhond---is it not amazing that Putin still has not increased that "enhanced border security" he in the public domain ordered his troops, the FSB and the Border Security Forces to do.
seems they are not under his control after all---so is he lying my friend or does he just like talking to the news cameras?
seems like the Ukrainians, NATO and the US seem to know what is crossing but somehow Putin does not know---come on mirhond what kind of a leader is he?
Despite the situation with the Malaysian Airline BOEING 777-200 Russia continues to supply heavy arms and other weapons to terrorists on the territory of Ukraine. The spokesman of the NSDC Andriy Lisenko said this during his briefing on Sunday.
“In the last 24 hours 4 tanks, 3 infantry fighting vehicles, 3 systems “Grad”, 4 APCs and few vehicles “Ural” with ammunition crossed the Ukrainian border from the village Belenkoye in Krasnodon region (Russia) to Luhanst region,” – said Lisenko.
and yet you really think the West does not know who fired the Buk?
Another SBU tape about separatists and black boxes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9ff_LT...ewJIRb2yku5EuQ
AP--what do you call a country that allows and provides heavy weapons
T64s/artillery/BM 21s/APCs/SAM 11s (3), irregular fighters and trains them---1) a none participant, 2) totally uninvolved third party with no interests, and or 3) a belligerent under international definitions from say 1995. Verified multiple times even via voice intercepts. I call the Ukrainian mercenaries a proxy army for Russia which in effect they are and proxy armies died out with the Soviet Union in 1995.
Russian (from it's soil) has fired multiple BM 21 attacks into the Ukraine with heavy personnel and equipment losses, Russian Mig29 shots down a Ukrainian SU 25 , Russian mortar attacks from Russian soil against Ukrainian border crossing points and a captured young Russian recruit in Russian uniform 45kms inside the Ukraine is what---the actions of a non violent neighbor or a belligerent under international law. All verified.
Russia is in fact at war with the Ukraine the last three weeks but the West does not want to call it that.
Why- the Russian irregulars that Putin verbally motivated have lost a third of their territory and are now encircled in two large cities with the Ukrainian Army indicating they will accept civilian loses in order to restore the Ukrainian sovereignty. Basically the Russian irregulars/mercenaries originally verbally supported by Putin are losing and Putin does not like to lose to the West.
Putin though cannot have them lose and thus the problem---this aircraft downing will effect him in a number of ways--the US/EU if the crash investigation is not fully, correctly, and clearly done and Russia does not support it I am suspecting the EU/US will go to full sectorial sanctions focusing on Gasprom---at that movement Putin will understand the trouble the Russian economy is in and is it spiraling out of control and sinking now daily since the shot down.
Can Putin climb down without his own personal respect and image he has created in Russia being damaged and without a fight--am not sure-- that is the deep question but if full sanctions come his economy will be damaged for the next ten years and any idea of a superpower status will die with that economy.
Again under the definition of international relations Russia is in fact currently a belligerent country.
This crash has effectively changed the dynamics on the ground and in the international relations world. If Putin does not get it under control his ultra nationalist/fasist side he might in fact see NATO start providing weapons, training and yes even SF advisors on the ground which Putin initially stated he never wanted NATO in the Ukraine---but the shot down tosses everything up now--notice the US/NATO has just declared the Ukraine a non NATO ally which opens up such support.
Basically the West no longer believes anything Putin says he will do as he has never fulfilled a single stated thing he promised he would do.
Actually if one goes back to the Soviet shot down of KAL007 Russia is acting in the same manner--and a lot of questions were not answered by the Soviets in 1983 about KAL007.
By the way why is it so hard these days to have any country (person) accept responsibility if they are so deeply involved and it is clearly proven --when did we get away from that principle. Check the KAL007 incident and you will virtually see the same arguments being used today by Russia--they never seem to learn.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2014 at 07:19 PM.
The weakness dividend...
Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened.
The US is the weakest it has ever been and Germany - caught with its reliance on Russian natural gas - has been quite pathetic. When this reliance was discussed here at SWC our (recently departed) German 'expert' asserted that Russia needed the income from the sales as much as Germany needed the gas thereby suggesting mutual dependence. Once again we see Germany's inability to make top level strategic decisions... they started two world wars and lost them both, now they have become a Russian lapdog.
JMA--fully agree if they had both gone to full sectorial sanctions this would have never happened and Ukraine would have been far quieter these days and Putin would have been in his cage and the Europe a quiet place for the next 20 years.
Notice Merkel has absolutely nothing to say nor does her FM---absolutely nothing.
Soft power without true hard power to make a point never succeeds anywhere in the 21st century.
The separatists have long demonstrated that they’re willing to go to grotesque lengths to keep eastern Ukraine out of Kiev’s hands. Desperate to avoid both culpability and defeat, they’re now using the bodies of MH17 victims as collateral to achieve those ends.
comrade not so expert on Russia mirhond---those volunteers or what others would call mercenaries---by the way---when did they allow the train with the bodies leave the crash site my friend mirhond?
now do not attempt to spin us another of your lies---it is still there when you stated here it was already leaving for Donetsk---your own words was it not comrade.
but hey let's see what those "volunteers" or better "zealous Christian mercenary" Cossacks are doing with the bodies that you defended was proper to loot from?
comrade mirhond---you know exatly where the train is--it has not even left as your Cossak "volunteers" or actually now murders and thieves since they were the ones that shot down the aircraft and looted their bodies.
now they are holding the bodies as "hostages"---well so much for their Christian rituals and respect for the dead but then again they are not even Christians are they mirhond?
seems as if they are trying to trade the bodies of the slaughtered 298 in exchange for a cease fire and the Ukrainian Army pulling out of their territory.
now just how is that going to be accepted by the international community mirhond--Gasprom I hear the sanctions coming and the Cossacks will be blamed for crashing the Russian economy with the stupid move to hold dead bodies hostage--but then you defended their rituals right mirhond?
link about your non Christian Cossacks taking dead bodies "hostage" is below.
comrade mirhond I have heard the brave Christian Cossacks have been hiding behind civilians in those cities they claim to be defending because they are afraid to face the Ukrainian Airborne units---- but to hide behind dead bodies to protect themselves from defeat---even you mirhond must find that funny and sad for the historic "brave" Cossacks----hiding behind dead bodies wow.
here is the link for you to practice your English with---good reading my friend-and again wow Cossack history in the making what a chapter.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...ukraine-rebels
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2014 at 09:52 PM.
A very graphic video of the crash site. Hard to believe this will simply blow over in time, but I suspect it will.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Px2rfWBW4wg
How's that any different from most conflicts in, say, the preceding 100 years? How is knowledge of the extent of the militia's autonomy or acknowledgment of Russian sponsorship relevant to U.S. ability to influence a favorable outcome?
Probably because the U.S. does not want its own war against Russia. If that's the case, I agree with the intention.Russia is in fact at war with the Ukraine the last three weeks but the West does not want to call it that.
Does anyone like losing? So what?Basically the Russian irregulars/mercenaries originally verbally supported by Putin are losing and Putin does not like to lose to the West.
The handling of the incident and crash site may open the door politically for more U.S. sanctions. But it's not the sanctions that's damaging Russia's economy; it's the uncertainty of the conflict's outcome. Historically speaking, sanctions are generally ineffective in compelling policy changes.Putin though cannot have them lose and thus the problem---this aircraft downing will effect him in a number of ways--the US/EU if the crash investigation is not fully, correctly, and clearly done and Russia does not support it I am suspecting the EU/US will go to full sectorial sanctions focusing on Gasprom---at that movement Putin will understand the trouble the Russian economy is in and is it spiraling out of control and sinking now daily since the shot down.
The Putin administration's popularity is at an all time high. Given effective state control of the media, it's obvious that any downward turn in the Russian economy will be blamed on the U.S. Is that the kind of political environment we want to foster in Russia? The Clinton and Bush administrations already effectively destroyed the credibility of the liberals in Russian politics.Can Putin climb down without his own personal respect and image he has created in Russia being damaged and without a fight--am not sure-- that is the deep question but if full sanctions come his economy will be damaged for the next ten years and any idea of a superpower status will die with that economy.
And?Again under the definition of international relations Russia is in fact currently a belligerent country.
So - what you're saying is that the incident is a pretext for the U.S. to escalate the conflict further by providing arms and direct assistance rather than pursuing a cease fire and negotiated settlement? Has any consideration been given to the long-term political ramifications for Ukraine's internal politics and the dyadic relationship with Russia if the separatists are destroyed? Does that resolve Ukraine's political problems?This crash has effectively changed the dynamics on the ground and in the international relations world. If Putin does not get it under control his ultra nationalist/fasist side he might in fact see NATO start providing weapons, training and yes even SF advisors on the ground which Putin initially stated he never wanted NATO in the Ukraine---but the shot down tosses everything up now--notice the US/NATO has just declared the Ukraine a non NATO ally which opens up such support.
There are very few, if any, similarities between the incidents. If any two incidents share similarities, it's the U.S. government's response to it's shoot down of the Iranian airliner in 1988 in which the U.S. refused to apologize on the grounds that it occurred in a war-time environment. This is not a question of moral culpability but instead of a state's place in the international power structure. If Russia has the power to not take responsibility, why would it or should it?Actually if one goes back to the Soviet shot down of KAL007 Russia is acting in the same manner--and a lot of questions were not answered by the Soviets in 1983 about KAL007.
By the way why is it so hard these days to have any country (person) accept responsibility if they are so deeply involved and it is clearly proven --when did we get away from that principle.
In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.
I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).
It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 07-21-2014 at 04:32 AM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP---this goes to the heart of something I have often noticed about your type of comments---you ask for something then in the fashion from say a Dayuhan you decide to use it to tear something about.
Now I will reverse the process---just what is then your position to 1) a proxy army fighting in the place of a regular army, 2) is Russia in fact after using Russian weapons from Russian soil a belligerent or what a very friendly not interested third party, and 3) you are really attempting to tell me the US has no ability to "influence"? Come on AP get real.
1. everyone acts as if the US is behind this or that but do we have to go back and repeat what happened in the Crimea and have you actually taken the time to read the Putin Doctrine that he formally read in front of the Duma
2. have you really read the new Russian military doctrine "New Generation Warfare"--in it you will see the concept of carrying out UW in support of political warfare
3. read the concept of political warfare and then understand how it is tied to the new Russian military doctrine
Now after you have read the relevant doctrine then sit down and take the time to state your comments here instead of asking and then tearing--state your comment by taking the doctrine and every move Russia has made and at the end then tell me Russia is not following their publicized doctrine to the letter.
And if you come to the realization that it is in fact following every step of their doctrine---then what is your solution.
Believe me the pressure point is Gasprom---it is the Achilles of the oligarchs, Putin, the military and the security services ---why because it is their single product they earn billons on cut the billions and Russia stands still.
Having dealt with the former UdSSR, the KGB and the MfS, and SB for over 40 years---in contrast to you I camped for over 6 weeks through the UdSSR in 1972 when many Americans were "not even aware of the UdSSR outside of the nuclear attack drills as a school kid" and having served in a couple of wars that had Russian weapons shooting at me --I think I have earned the right to have morals---you might agree but the lack of holding to basic morals has complicate the world the last 11 years---ask Bush about that.
Sometimes in the world of international relations morals have to get in the way---that is why we are where we are today because when morals are violated or in this case the bodies of slaughtered civilians are what---just the norm and nothing should happen.
flip the question--do you think the Gaza incursion now by Israel is a valid response to a bunch of rockets that have not hit anything other than sand?
After reading your own comments below have you even listened to the SBU intercepts which have been confirmed by the US as authentic and yesterday even a former Russian intel officer who is fighting in the Ukraine confirmed it is his voice "but taken out of context--really out of context?"
Now after listening do you still stand by your comments AP?
Now to your comments here;
I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).
It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.
So let's see AP the shot down and killing of 298 people and now holding their bodies as hostages is what---a just a back to business as usual event---come on even you cannot believe that AP.
I lost two close US SF officer friends on Pan Am and we still do not really know who was behind that one do we? I should have been on that flight but took a later one--maybe luck maybe not.
What did we demand for the Lockerbie Pan Am flight incident AP?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-21-2014 at 06:42 AM.
For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and American minisrty of truth, may be) says so.
Last edited by mirhond; 07-21-2014 at 07:58 AM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Technically, no, I don't believe that closing the airway segments on the Russian side would legally close the segments on the Ukrainian side. In practice, I would assume that those airway route segments on an east-west axis would see a reduction in traffic to the point where only very far western Ukraine sees any activity, but there might even be an increase in traffic on the north-south axis. After watching some live tracking through the area last night, I'm inclined to believe that this is the case.
Perhaps it would be worth revisiting Kaur's post from yesterday.
Moral culpability is ultimately without consequence at this level. It still exists, though. I will be interested to see whether Putin is invited to G20.
comrade not so Russian expert mirhond---here is where you and I greatly differ---if two different satellite recordings indicate the exact location of the Buk missile launch and that is in fact nowhere close to/next to/near to /approximately next to/or even remotely in the air above a Ukrainian AD site then yes in fact Russia must assume responsibility for the missile downing the airliner. anything else that you might attempt to state is an outright lie my friend.
because what other explanation is there---if in fact there were no Ukrainians anywhere to be found---secondly you really need to check the Russian mercenary tweets---one of the individuals named in the voice intercept concerning the shot down "admitted" in his tweet that yes it was his voice BUT it had been "tampered with" BUT he does not say "what was tampered with"---and by the way the US intelligence community confirms the validity of the voice intercepts---that means the NSA has the same recording and I am sure they did not "tamper" with anything my friend
in your own words and your fallacies---if I "allow" Cossacks to cross my supposedly enhanced border, if I call the dogs of war called ultra nationalists/fascists, neo nationalists, war tourists to fight the Nazi's and junta all day long on my own media channels, if I provide the heavy weapons ie T64s/APC/GRADs/KAMAZ trucks/ and three Buks via a "civil society" whatever that is as no one in Russia seems to know what it is yet uses the words, if I rocket and mortar from my own soil into the Ukraine and if I fire air to air missiles from my own soil downing a Ukrainian jet, if I allow those dogs of war to hold dead bodies as hostages-- then what mirhond?
then in fact comrade I "own" the dogs of war and if I cannot control them even though I am responsible for calling them into life--- which is now what is happening because there are at least five different Russian mercenary groups in eastern Ukraine- and no one is in control as these groups are so busy looting, kidnapping, killing "non Christians", creating mass graves in the towns where they recently were driven from and looting dead bodies ---then what my friend.
then comrade no all knowing Russia expert YES Russia must take responsibility as the giver of birth to these groups.
by the way comrade mirhond---was it not Putin himself that stated the West is disrespecting the superpower status of Russia---then in that case and in Putin's own statements RUSSIA OWNS THE DOGS OF WAR my friend and spinning anything else is a waste of time on your part ---affectively since the shot down you have even lost the information war as well becuae the world is juding you and Putin now on actions not words my friends.
all that comes from you and Putin are words nothing more nothing less and when things go badly it is the other person's fault right mirhond--what a fallacy concept.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-21-2014 at 09:52 AM.
biggus---this goes to APs earlier comments directed at me---I still believe that nations have a moral statement towards their population---ie rule of law and good governance and would have moved inalong those lines the same concept directed towards their neighbors. The so called balance of power was based on the ability of countries to accurately judge eah others actions and naturally on nuclear weapons---if the Ukraine had not given those up do you really think Putin into the Crimea?
In Putin's drive to regain superpower status he violated that premise by actually resorting to force to annex territory under the so called guise of "self determination" based on language---upsetting in fact roughly 70 years of established boundaries---established by no other than the Soviet Union under the flag of the Red Army including some countries who had nothing to do with Hitler ie the Baltics.
The European newspapers this morning are screaming for blood as they at their populations level sense the slaughter of true innocents and the handling of their bodies being held hostage is something that goes beyond "normality" and must be reigned in.
That outrage will in fact be leveled on Tuesday if Russian does not get a grip on those at the crash site--previously Russia was ahead in the opinion side of the European/German populations for maybe being right in this dispute but it was lost with the downing and is shifting far faster than I have ever seen opinions shift in the EU.
It all has to do with the perception of common human decency. and right now Russia/Putin seem in their eyes to not seem to care about that.
Wikipedia:
Morality (from the Latin moralitas "manner, character, proper behavior") is the differentiation of intentions, decisions, and actions between those that are "good" (or right) and those that are "bad" (or wrong).[citation needed] Morality can be a body of standards or principles derived from a code of conduct from a particular philosophy, religion, culture, etc., or it can derive from a standard that a person believes should be universal.[1] Morality may also be specifically synonymous with "goodness" or "rightness." Immorality is the active opposition to morality (i.e. opposition to that which is good or right), while amorality is variously defined as an unawareness of, indifference toward, or disbelief in any set of moral standards or principles.[
Right now they see no Russian morality.
Gasprom will be the target--watch for it.
There is now sentiment growing in the EU to pull the FIFA 2018 games from Russia and if the crash site issues are not resolved by tomorrow and Putin assumes responsibility for the crash site and his dogs of war then it will be pulled.
G20---not a chance---the invitation will not even be sent--he can show up but will be standing in the door.
European general mood has shifted greatly in the last 72 hrs and it has to do with the poor treatment and on respect for the dead bodies.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-21-2014 at 09:46 AM.
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