Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like a Times reporter who took photos at the crash has photographed potential shrapnel damage on a number of the pieces of the downed aircraft and then released them via twitter---consistent with that type of SAM hit. Photos were date time stamped and geo coordinated.

As I have previously mentioned to mirhond the Russian mercenaries have no earthly idea what on forensics remain behind especially on a shot down--they are desperately trying to move things and hide things but over 32 square kms?

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/b...d_4005265.html

[OUTLAW 09]

I watched the RF MoD press conference. Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov managed to keep hard face till the end of his presentation and then he slipped in a hard way. At 27:00 he states that RF has not supplied to ополчение/separatists no BUK, no other weapons and no military machines. Lady translator was not precise in her translation. Even Gubarev's team admitted that they got weapons and ATGM systems from Russia, NATO wrote about tanks, we saw North Caucasus military district Grad MRL, in Girkin basement we saw MANPAD systems and ATGM systems. If we know all those facts, think about generals statemant, then how can we belive what he said before?

During the same conference the General tried to inject the Ukrainian SU 25 into the narrative as well as the US --and this is interesting he injected the statement that the US had satellites moving over the exact area of the crash so therefore the US MUST have something to do with the crash via their satellites.

BUT more interesting is the fact that through his admission he is virtually supporting the US statements they have launch signatures they captured via satellite.

Even the Russian Defense Ministry can no longer keep their stories straight.

Article is in German---Russian satellite comments second to last paragraph for mirhond.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-982184.html

[kaur]

After studing little bit that MoD statement about SsangYoung banner, I did find out that first source was RIA Novosti, which published Victor Levanov's comment. Victor Levanov is pro Kremlin blogger and Фонда открытой новой демократии is heade by Kremlin youth movement Nashi former spokesperson Kristina Potupchik. Nashi movement was Kremlin spin doctor Vladislav Surkov's creature in fight against orange revolutions in former Soviet space. Now Surkov suppousedly coordinates RF policy towards Ukraine.

http://ria.ru/world/20140720/1016777974.html

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nashi_(youth_movement)

[kaur]

Russia’s top 10 lies about downed Malaysia airliner.

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-...aysia-airliner

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like a Times reporter who took photos at the crash has photographed potential shrapnel damage on a number of the pieces of the downed aircraft and then released them via twitter---consistent with that type of SAM hit. Photos were date time stamped and geo coordinated.

As I have previously mentioned to mirhond the Russian mercenaries have no earthly idea what on forensics remain behind especially on a shot down--they are desperately trying to move things and hide things but over 32 square kms?

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/b...d_4005265.html

A better explanation of the shrapnel from the NYTs--whose reporter it was to took the photos.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/wo...hows.html?_r=0

[Biggus]

biggus--go in and research the abilities of the SAM 6 guidance radar and lock on radars both combined in the launch vehicle as is the SAM 11--it is not that easy---in fact during the Cold War the SAM 6 and 8 defense rings were feared by the 15/16 pilots and there were estimates of high losses until SEAD could kick in knocking holes for pass through.

Again the Russians would have seen only an extremely short radar signature of the tactical radar and it tends to search, and lock on a target and then it is automatically fed to the missile and then the radar goes silent ago and the missile radar guidance picks up the mission to strike riding a multiple series of ever changing frequencies.

If you noticed the WH stated there are missile launch signatures and the trajectory was seen and tracked which then can be backward calculated to define the launch site down to a really narrow error margin---the Ukrainians are saying the same thing.

The SAM 11 was in tactical mode when it fired not the theater battery mode where radars are always on and sweeping.

True about a very short period of time elapsing between tracking and launching, but there's the issue of searching for a target. It takes four seconds for a sweep of an area covering a six degree by 120 degree space. Given that it's improbable that they would have picked up a target in the first couple of sweeps, surely 10 or 15 seconds of a fire control radar actively searching would have been detected by someone, somewhere. I do not really know about optical sensors on the Buk, but if used I would assume several mid-course update transmissions.

Not sure if you have much experience with the Iron Dome of the latest versions of the Patriot---they do not have shoot and scoot capacity which has always been the Russian AD doctrinal theory----theater defense and AD on the move.

What is interesting is that in an interview actually carried two days ago on Russian One with residents in the area of the crash they claimed they heard two distinct explosions then they saw the plane in several large pieces coming down.

If one looks at the video release showing the white tractor trailer carrying the Buk---there were actually two missiles missing ---the middle two which surprised me when we slowed it down---as the reporting initially stated one was missing.

I admit to a lack of knowledge of Iron Dome.

Two missiles launched is certainly consistent with what I've read in regards to SAM site operations. It would also explain why I'm seeing shrapnel behind the cockpit and on the far outboard of a wing.

Again if I have supplied the Buk across the border I seriously doubt the Russian AD TOC was not informed it was across the border---at least the senior Russian TOC watch officer would have been informed by the GRU---there are no go it alone types within the Russian military especially with their theater AD.

I am not privy to any information surrounding how tightly integrated Russian military and civillian airspace management systems are. My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other. The alternative hypothesis would be too depressing to consider, assuming Russian awareness of a rebel-held Buk.

During the same conference the General tried to inject the Ukrainian SU 25 into the narrative as well as the US --and this is interesting he injected the statement that the US had satellites moving over the exact area of the crash so therefore the US MUST have something to do with the crash via their satellites.

Again with the Frogfoot. Continued reference to it does nothing for Russian credibility. A close air support aircraft that struggles to get to 24kft without any pylons or stores and has no radar. Let alone the idea that someone armed with P60s could mistake a 777 for anything but a civillian aircraft at even the maximum engagement range. Why would Ukraine employ such an aircraft for air defence when they've got actual air superiority aircraft?

[JMA]

I try not to ever fall into the trap as explained in this quote:

If a man is offered a fact, which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something, which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. – Bertrand Russell

That said as much as I would like to accept Russian culpability in this matter I do believe that we need to assure ourselves first that this was not a Ukrainian effort either unknowingly or deliberately.

Are there facts available that clear Ukraine from any possible involvement?

I watched the RF MoD press conference. Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov managed to keep hard face till the end of his presentation and then he slipped in a hard way. At 27:00 he states that RF has not supplied to ополчение/separatists no BUK, no other weapons and no military machines. Lady translator was not precise in her translation. Even Gubarev's team admitted that they got weapons and ATGM systems from Russia, NATO wrote about tanks, we saw North Caucasus military district Grad MRL, in Girkin basement we saw MANPAD systems and ATGM systems. If we know all those facts, think about generals statemant, then how can we belive what he said before?

Ps that SsangYong banner with Krasnoarmeisk, Dnepropetrovskaja 34 address will not prove anything. Kranoarmeisk may be just closest city with SsangYong dealer.

[OUTLAW 09]

True about a very short period of time elapsing between tracking and launching, but there's the issue of searching for a target. It takes four seconds for a sweep of an area covering a six degree by 120 degree space. Given that it's improbable that they would have picked up a target in the first couple of sweeps, surely 10 or 15 seconds of a fire control radar actively searching would have been detected by someone, somewhere. I do not really know about optical sensors on the Buk, but if used I would assume several mid-course update transmissions.


I admit to a lack of knowledge of Iron Dome.

Two missiles launched is certainly consistent with what I've read in regards to SAM site operations. It would also explain why I'm seeing shrapnel behind the cockpit and on the far outboard of a wing.



I am not privy to any information surrounding how tightly integrated Russian military and civillian airspace management systems are. My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other. The alternative hypothesis would be too depressing to consider, assuming Russian awareness of a rebel-held Buk.



Again with the Frogfoot. Continued reference to it does nothing for Russian credibility. A close air support aircraft that struggles to get to 24kft without any pylons or stores and has no radar. Let alone the idea that someone armed with P60s could mistake a 777 for anything but a civillian aircraft at even the maximum engagement range. Why would Ukraine employ such an aircraft for air defence when they've got actual air superiority aircraft?

biggus---the Russian argument which Russia is using to try to turn the narrative on it's head and away from Russian involvement concerning the SU 25 is that it fired again "assumed to have fired"---in propaganda one just has to thrown out a statement forcing the other side to look like 1) they are guilty and 2) it starts a new news cycle----

it was assumed to have fired--- is the alleged or it could have-- or it might have fired an air to air missile which packs a higher explosive to weigh ratio---BUT in the scramble to "create" a story they failed to realize the West knows a lot about the SAM 11 missile and the fragmentation of the debris clearly depicts an airburst missile class as is the SAM 11 group, and actually the explosive charge carried by the SAM 11 is quite large but again not unusual as it is long and has a great drive engine.

My link to the NYTs article is quite good---surprised that the Times is thorough and had a SAM specialist doing the analysis work.

So again so goes another "alleged" theory down in flames because the Russians cannot for some strange reason think that the West fact checks articles these days.

Between us I do think the journalist knew exactly what to look for and what to photograph as the photos depict single items not the whole field of items---as virtually seven different news agencies and news papers picked up the story together with the photos which hit hard back here in Europe.

Here is the interesting info war development--now most of their stories are grabbing news cycles in the west not longer than one rotation whereas before the downing often it would be 2-4 times with a variation or two showing up to take it into a 5th or 6th rotation.

Their information war machine is somewhat unhinged right now and trying to recover. In marketing they say it takes just one bad comment or unsatisfied customer to override 30 great customers and great online comments and kill the product.

[Ulenspiegel]

biggus---the Russian argument which Russia is using to try to turn the narrative on it's head and away from Russian involvement concerning the SU 25 is that it fired again "assumed to have fired"---in propaganda one just has to thrown out a statement forcing the other side to look like 1) they are guilty and 2) it starts a new news cycle----

it was assumed to have fired--- is the alleged or it could have-- or it might have fired an air to air missile which packs a higher explosive to weigh ratio---BUT in the scramble to "create" a story they failed to realize the West knows a lot about the SAM 11 missile and the fragmentation of the debris clearly depicts an airburst missile class as is the SAM 11 group, and actually the explosive charge carried by the SAM 11 is quite large but again not unusual as it is long and has a great drive engine.

My link to the NYTs article is quite good---surprised that the Times is thorough and had a SAM specialist doing the analysis work.

So again so goes another "alleged" theory down in flames because the Russians cannot for some strange reason think that the West fact checks articles these days.

Between us I do think the journalist knew exactly what to look for and to photograph as the photos depict single items not the whole field of items.

Here is the interesting info war development--now of their stories are grabbing news cycles in the west longer than one rotation whereas before the downing often it would be 2-4 times with a variation or two showing up to take it into a 5th or 6th rotation.

At the moment I do not understand why Russia is performing such a low quality propaganda war.

From the quite good discussions on the German "Augen geradeaus" it was clear for two days now, that at least one SAM was used: The shrapnel patterns on the debris can not be explained by an air-to-air missile impact in combination with an explosion of one engine.

The SU-25 argument is from a physical POV complete nonsens. It does not really help when now the Russian Wikipedia entry for the SU-25 is changed. :-)

The working hypothesis on "Augen geradeaus" is, that with correct data on location, speed, height, and bearing of the plane at the time of the first impact and with known data of the BUK system a very good estimate in respect the location of the firing BUK system can be made (cyrcle with 1km diameter).

Is this believable?
What would the impact of a destoyed or emptied black box be?
How many seconds would be between first and second SAM, if two were used according to Russian SOP?

[mirhond]

After studing little bit that MoD statement about SsangYoung banner, I did find out that first source was RIA Novosti, which published Victor Levanov's comment. Victor Levanov is pro Kremlin blogger and Фонда открытой новой демократии is heade by Kremlin youth movement Nashi former spokesperson Kristina Potupchik.

So, if Levanov says "The sky is blue" and "Two plus two equals four" you automatically reject these two statemetts as false?
If yes, you may have hard times with reality

My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other.

You may be 90% sure that it's true.

[kaur]

mirhond, before posting next time test your links with your fallacy formula. Without going too far with your postings (this will spoil your next weekend) test your fallacy thing with RF MoD press conference.

That RIA Novosti, Leonov, Potuptchik etc chain belongs to this phenomena.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spin_(public_relations)

I am terribly disturbed that MoD is using Nashi spins in international relations sphere. Or should this confirm that MoD, RIA Novosti, Nashi guys work in concert?

[Biggus]

Are there facts available that clear Ukraine from any possible involvement?

Not so far as I am aware. They're responsible for not closing down the contested airspace when they lost a Buk system. This alone should carry some significant form of consternation.

What is telling, though, is the appallingly ludicrous narrative Russia is running with against Ukraine. I suspect knowing that two E-3 AWACS birds being present and watching at the time is probably causing them some grief in coming up with a more plausible infowar strategy.

You may be 90% sure that it's true.

I am more than 90% sure, but it isn't something I know for sure and I'll make no further assumptions. Either could be the case.

[JMA]

Got another one here...

AP... please take a deep breath, you are sounding shrill.

As Outlaw said full sectoral sanctions would have probably done the trick, but coupled with a continuing fear of all things Russian and a lack of leverage over the Germans the US is left standing alone like a little boy with a runny nose and wet pants.

Not every situation must have a military solution. I would have thought that was obvious.

So I am left trying to understand what made you freak out over a few things said in this thread.

I know that the US liberal left are running interferance for the Administration trying to justify the inaction. Are you one of them? Perhaps placing loyalty toan Administration above the long term best interests of the US? Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

Originally Posted by JMA
Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened.

In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.

[OUTLAW 09]

At the moment I do not understand why Russia is performing such a low quality propaganda war.

From the quite good discussions on the German "Augen geradeaus" it was clear for two days now, that at least one SAM was used: The shrapnel patterns on the debris can not be explained by an air-to-air missile impact in combination with an explosion of one engine.

The SU-25 argument is from a physical POV complete nonsens. It does not really help when now the Russian Wikipedia entry for the SU-25 is changed. :-)

The working hypothesis on "Augen geradeaus" is, that with correct data on location, speed, height, and bearing of the plane at the time of the first impact and with known data of the BUK system a very good estimate in respect the location of the firing BUK system can be made (cyrcle with 1km diameter).

Is this believable?
What would the impact of a destoyed or emptied black box be?
How many seconds would be between first and second SAM, if two were used according to Russian SOP?

Ullenspiegel---interesting questions and observations.

1. I myself first thought one missile and it initially appeared that in fact it was one and after really slowing down the video to frame by frame in fact two were missing---now three could have been the basic load thus one fired leaves two but normally the missiles are fired in parallel to each other ie both the out board and then the middle two or vice versa (or one and three or two and four) in order to maintain the balance of the vehicle to maintain a stable firing platform.

But then the field interview of the locals indicated two distinct explosions one after the other before the plane broke up.

2. an air to air missile is largely pointed to the engines and is usually a physical hit if possible---but the size of the 777 engine coming apart at that speed and under duress would have covered the plane with shredding type of shrapnel meaning mid to long running gashes in the skin of the aircraft resulting from the various turbine fan blades coming apart on the different compression wheels--not punctures resembling multi caliber AAA fire hitting an aircraft---and if you looked at the NYTs photos the shrapnel was in a shotgun pattern (almost sprayed like with discoloration on some which is the heat from the shrapnel) which reflects an airburst---the SAM 11 has a heavy explosive payload (around 60/70 kilos) in order to create a large shotgun effect in the hopes of hitting a fast moving fighter or attack fighter that has the speed engine in overdrive as he would have heard the missile alarms go off in the cockpit as he attempted to evade the missile

3. the flight recorders were actually from the destruction of the plane in relatively great condition and the critical words were given by the Malaysian inspector---they had not been tampered with.

Below is an Interfax release from today by the Russian defense Ministry where they are desperately trying to hold onto the SU 25 or Ukrainian theories.

Yesterday their AF General blew it when he admitted openly the US had one or more overhead capabilities sitting in place for the entire period.

Go down into the press release and notice the wording that again they admit to the Us having infra red capabilities overhead at the time of the crash.

Now what they General is sadly missing is the depth of the US missile launch detection and exactly how the US tracks missiles in flight which they are petty darn good at if one has ever been in a Patriot TOC during exercises.

Read the sentence where the General is saying if they US has something then put it on the table---notice the silence out of the US---they are almost ignoring the Russian comments.

Assumption is that yes the US has the launch data with 10 digits, has the trajectory data down to the mm's and is simply waiting to the right time.

Why is the General so impatient---they need the US info in order to conduct a counter narrative--and they are not getting it so there are way out on a limb with no net. They claim they will pass on their data from yesterday's briefing --IMO they will not until they fully understand just what the US has as the joker in this poker game of superpower chicken. this is the third time in two days the Russians are asking for it---Obama has already replied ---yes we have confirmed launch location and flight data.

They really do not understand fully our ISR abilities which when you spoke to any number of Russian officers in the last two years---they always speak highly of the US UAV and overhead ISR.

Interfax press release from today:

Only infrared spy satellite able to see Malaysian Boeing crash - expert

MOSCOW. July 22 (Interfax-AVN) - Only an infrared reconnaissance satellite can help clarify the circumstances under which the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 crashed in Ukraine. A regular remote sensing satellite will be useless, a source in the Russian space surveillance system told Interfax-AVN.

"Remote sensing satellites, dozens of which have been deployed in space, are mostly tasked to film the earth's surface, infrastructure and slow moving objects. They are not equipped to film rapidly moving objects, especially if these objects are maneuvering," the source said on the condition of anonymity.

"Images of southeastern Ukraine might have been taken on that day on the orders from a commercial or state company but it is practically unrealistic that every filming condition was synchronized and the images depicted the Malaysian Boeing at the crash moment," he said.

Infrared satellites are different, the expert noted. The Russian Defense Ministry spoke yesterday about such U.S. satellites, which were above Ukraine at the crash moment.

"The satellite might have detected in the infrared band the launch of a surface-to-air missile, same as the flight of a Ukrainian assault aircraft near the Boeing and the launch of an air-to-air missile. However, the U.S. side has not presented the satellite data to the general public," the expert said.

Regular remote sensing means operating in the optical band are practically incapable of detecting the flight of a commercial jetliner, its being accompanied by an assault jet, and the launch of an air-to-air missile or a surface-to-air missile, he continued.

"True, satellites operating in the optical band may accidentally discover a plane flying above a concrete territory but chances that all the pieces will fall into place are one to a thousand or even a million. Images can be taken in the cloudless skies, and it was cloudy in southeastern Ukraine on the day of the crash; besides, the satellite must be tasked to film a concrete area, and the filming is done only from a certain angle and over a certain space. Besides, the satellite is not hovering above the required spot but passes it one or several times a day depending on its orbit," the source in the Russian space surveillance system said.

[OUTLAW 09]

Not so far as I am aware. They're responsible for not closing down the contested airspace when they lost a Buk system. This alone should carry some significant form of consternation.

What is telling, though, is the appallingly ludicrous narrative Russia is running with against Ukraine. I suspect knowing that two E-3 AWACS birds being present and watching at the time is probably causing them some grief in coming up with a more plausible infowar strategy.

I am more than 90% sure, but it isn't something I know for sure and I'll make no further assumptions. Either could be the case.

Biggus----there is a fear of the combination of the AWACs which has GMTI abilities as well as the overhead abilities that the Russians referred to today in their Interfax press release.

They do understand the use of the combination of the two on top of the voice intercepts which the Ukrainians released which the US confirmed which allowed them keep the NSA nicely out of the picture which was nice move--from a classification level.

They are desperately trying to get the US to release their data before they send anything to the UN Air Crash Team handling the investigation now in order to not look stupid and looking like it fact it was their Buk.

[OUTLAW 09]

Even the Russian UN Ambassador is spinning the narrative as fast as he can these days--man it must be hard to maintain a log on the series of stories one is to spin and not get lost which it appears they have been for the last 72 hours.


Taken from the UNSC statements by the Russian Ambassador even after one of the voice intercept participants admitted it was his voice and the US confirmed the recordings and the Buk photos and videos were in fact geo located which the Ambassador seems to have not gotten the message on yet from Moscow.

The "controversial recording" of radio communications purportedly proving that Russian-backed separatists accidentally shot down the plane and then tried to cover it up were recorded before the aircraft was downed, he claimed. A video released by the Ukrainian government purporting to show Russian-made surface-to-air rockets on Ukrainian territory were actually taken in Russia, he said. Finally, he claimed that a sophisticated Ukrainian government Buk missile system was in an area controlled by the rebels before the plane's downing, and then "hastily removed" after the tragedy.

[AmericanPride]

Got another one here...

AP... please take a deep breath, you are sounding shrill.

As Outlaw said full sectoral sanctions would have probably done the trick, but coupled with a continuing fear of all things Russian and a lack of leverage over the Germans the US is left standing alone like a little boy with a runny nose and wet pants.

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?

Not every situation must have a military solution.

I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.

I know that the US liberal left are running interferance for the Administration trying to justify the inaction. Are you one of them? Perhaps placing loyalty toan Administration above the long term best interests of the US? Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

[OUTLAW 09]

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?



I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.



I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

JMA---one this one I tend to go with AP for the following reason---yes economically right now we can sit back and say nothing is working and or little if anything is working from the first series of sanctions and virtually little to nothing from the EU side.

BUT and it is a big BUT---the last US sanctions hit hard--the VEB is the main bank for virtually all Russian major companies---the counter threat finance guys got it right with VEB---it is the lynch pin.

If you saw my reference to the two Interfax releases yesterday the Russian government is hard at work trying to figure out how to get money to it as it owes outstanding debt payments of 34B USDs in the next two years---14B in the next six months and the remaining 24B in early 2015.

Guess what they do not have that kind of money laying around---the entire Russian economy has been built on a legal Ponzi scheme meaning they had been getting money they need on short terms as the bank percentage points right now are really cheap.

If on fact the reporting is correct the EU is getting ready to cut Russia off fom European bank lines of credit---something I said should have been done in the first days of the Crimea.

Then in the last two days we see a major critique article all unnamed from the Russian oligarchs complaining Putin is driving the economy literally into the ditch and the costs of the ditch have yet to be felt but will be felt by the Russian population in the coming months if the sanctions get harder and then the Russian economy if they come might not be back to normal for the next 7-10 years.

Then this about Russian lawmakers wanting the rich to help pay for the Crimea---I have posted somewhere in this thread an Interfax article indicating the Russian government could not pass an actual Crimea budget until 2022---meaning they were attempting to pay for the Crimea out of pocket and the pockets were not deep at all until 2022---and the current food prices have claimed over 120% in the Crimea since the take over.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0FR1SB20140722

Putin is not understanding that Russia is really a two raw resource nation and you must constantly sell raw resources if you finance your core economy---and the lynch pin are the lines of credit and bank loans---notice Russia has not completed a single national debt offer for the last five months as they would have to buy to much in interest-far above the norm currently.

What worries me currently is that there is a new German article from the SDZ that makes the comment that they believe based on Putin's actions before and now during the plane crash that he is no longer mentally tied to reality as he has built in his head and in the heads of the Russians via propaganda a alternated state of reality meaning what is black to us is definitely red to him and the Russian population.

Meaning he set the wheels in motion using ethnicity in eastern Ukraine, he has supported verbally the Russian volunteers, he is providing them heavy weapons and the Buk, calls go to Moscow and many of the Russian volunteers are and were former FSB types--meaning there is in fact no difference between the separatists and Moscow yet Putin sees it differently nor would he agree with the comments.

So will further sanctions even enter his thinking even if he fully understands that his economy is tanking completely around him.

Secondly there are some serious indictors that Putin was ready to turn loose his military to cross over the border claiming he had to defend the poor civilians being killed by the fascists in Kiev between the period 17-19 July--and if you noticed the actual attacks from Russian soil into Ukraine spiked greatly during that period---then came the crash and Putin's military crossing got crashed as well.

He though still has not given up on the "federation" of eastern Ukraine as a way to stop the Ukraine and to control the Ukraine.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-982325.html

Was die Verantwortung Russlands angeht, hat Stefan Kornelius in der "Sddeutschen Zeitung" heute alles gesagt: "Die Separatisten sind von der russischen Regierung nicht zu trennen. Ihre Kommandeure sind im russischen Sicherheitsmilieu verwurzelt, ihre Waffen stammen aus russischen Arsenalen, ihre Telefonate gehen nach Russland, die Raketenwerfer vom Typ SA-11 fahren dorthin zurck." Die entscheidende Frage ist, ob Putin diese Realitt anerkennt und rational agiert - oder ob er lngst in einer anderen Realitt gefangen ist.

Wenn wir Pech haben, mssen wir Hilfe in der klinischen Psychologie suchen statt in der Diplomatie. Dem in seinem Wahn verstrickten Menschen verordnet der Arzt Medikamente, um ihm in die Wirklichkeit zurckzuhelfen. Aber wie befreit man einen Staat von seinen Zwangsideen?

[OUTLAW 09]

Weather.

Biggus----flight direction was changed shortly before the shot down due to the pilot having received permission from Ukrainian ATC for a "direct routing".

Confirmed by an India 777 25 kms behind him.

http://www.focus.de/panorama/videos/...d_4009212.html

So did the Russian radar track indicate a SU 25 or the Indian 777 trailing the MH17 flight? Because the Russian AF general indicated no other aircraft trailing MH17?

Kurz vor dem Abschuss des Malaysia Airline Fluges MH17 versuchte ein indischer Dreamliner, Kontakt zum Unglcksflieger aufzunehmen. Doch die einzige Information, die die Air-India-Maschine noch vernehmen konnte, sollte den Passagieren von Flug MH17 zum Verhngnis werden.


Kurz vor dem Abschuss der Malaysia Airlines Maschine, soll ein Dreamliner der Air India versucht haben, Kontakt zum Flug MH17 aufzunehmen. Denn die indische Maschine befand sich zum Zeitpunkt des Unglcks nur 25 Kilometer vom Unglcksflieger entfernt. Das geht aus einem Bericht der Times of India hervor.

Darin heit es, dass ein ukrainischer Fluglotse den Piloten des Dreamliners um eine Kontaktaufnahme bat. Denn das Flugzeug war zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits vom Radar verschwunden doch auch die indischen Piloten konnten keinen Kontakt aufnehmen.

Dem Bericht zufolge sollen die Piloten der Air-India-Maschine jedoch Minuten vor dem Abschuss gehrt haben, wie der MH17-Crew die Erlaubnis fr ein so genanntes direct routing erteilt wurde. Das bedeutet, dass der Flieger seine geplante Route umgehen und einen direkten Weg ber ein bestimmtes Gebiet whlen durfte.

Nach Angaben eines Air-India-Mitarbeiters spart eine solche Routennderung Zeit und Geld, weshalb sie bei Piloten besonders beliebt sei. In diesem Fall kostete diese Entscheidung jedoch offenbar 298 Menschenleben.

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade not so really informed mirhond---looks like Putin and the Russian Cossak "zealous Christian mercenaries" did not hold to the burial ritual you claimed they hold to correct did they? Probably since they were to busy looting credit cads, jewelry and Smart phones from the dead they so respected.

by the way those 36 bodies the Cossacks took which you said headed to Donetsk never seem to make it did they mirhond?

So there are still 98 bodies on the ground at the crash site right mirhond?

They claimed to the world that they had collected 282 bodies from the crash site but guess what there were only 200 on the trained confirmed by the Dutch, Germans and Interpol.

you have to really get better at this comrade mirhond----

it is in german mirhond---they tend to report accurately or at least better than Russia Today.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/...d_4008709.html