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Thread: Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

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    Default Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

    Moderator's Note

    This thread refers to the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 being shot down over eastern Ukraine. It has caused some controversy here, discussions on the Ukraine / Crimea have done before and so the posts have been moved here.

    The main thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5978 (ends)


    Ukraine conflict: Russia accused of shooting down jet

    One can just imagine the wringing of hands and the efforts being put into playing down this incident by the leadership of the US, Britain and Germany.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-18-2014 at 07:07 PM. Reason: add note

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    Malaysia Airlines plane crashes on Ukraine-Russia border - live

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...h-east-ukraine
    Last edited by kaur; 07-17-2014 at 06:27 PM.

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    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Today a Malaysian airlines Boing 777 crashed in seperatist-controlled Ukrainian territory. RIP to the victims, a terrible, terrible tragedy for the friends and relatives.

    It may be of course a freak coincidence of a fatal defect happened in this combat zone, which additionally happened without any warning and gave them no chance to report back. According to the Corriere the seperatists claimed before the news broke to have shot down an Ukrainain transport plane. Perhaps somebody could quickly check that.

    It is needless to say that this potential seperatists statement would fit the hypothesis with by far the highest probability. They have recently shot down, with likely Russian delivered weapons and radar systems high-flying Ukrainian planes. Of course one can not rule out a missile directly fired by a Russian plane or a long range SA-system. The remote possiblity that Ukrainian forces might have shot it down, should also be considered.


    P.S:

    17:28:

    According to Reuters, there are dozens of bodies scattered around the wreckage of the jet. The agency quotes an emergencies services rescue worker as saying at least 100 bodies had so far been found at the scene, and that debris from the wreckage was scattered across an area up to about 15 km (nine miles) in diameter.
    Which should point to a missile.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-17-2014 at 06:07 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Funny moment of chairborne internet warrior got busted

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=NvFAvKBcVWw

    Miserably looking guy in black, Budakov Dmitri is claimed to be internet-vigilante, who threatened a Gorlovka closed community admin, Alexei Petrov (known separatist supporter) to come after him with "huge gut-opener". It turned out that Petrov himself "invited" this guy to private conversation and offered him a knife combat with handicap - Budakov get a sharp blade, Petrov get a dull one. To the public disappointment, epic battle didn't happened - Budakov refused and even tried to apologise.



    1. Stating the obvious and asking rethorical questions isn't a way to prove your initial claims.
    2. Hitler Card and Appeal to Emotion in two lines - please, continue, I'am making the bookmarks ^_^
    so comrade Russian expert and FSB agent---so how does it feel now that your President has lost millions in his investments and the Russian stock market crashed 6% and the Rubel fell 5%?

    So are you now going state that the Ukrainians were responsible for shooting down the Airliner as it crossed over Donetsk?

    come on comrade expert you know that the Ukrainians do not have the medium range SAM system BUK---right the same system that fired from Russian territory shooting down the AN-26.

    but come on comrade mirhond why do not finally admit Russia is fighting on the ground inside the Ukraine and on the border with two Russian SF Regts.

    http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malay...-a-981631.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 06:09 PM.

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    Malaysian airliner shot down near Donetsk and close to Russian border.

    http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malay...-a-981631.html

    Looks like the sanctions will be getting tougher---BM 21 missiles being fired out of Russian territory, the Ukrainian AN 26 being shot down at a height of 6/7000MM which excludes MANPADS and now the Malaysian airliner being shot down over Donetsk at a height of 10,000M also near the Russian border.

    There is a strong indicator that the mobile medium SAM system BUK was responsible and they have been spotted close to and or near the Ukrainian border.

    What does it finally take from the EU as well as the US to go immediately to full sectorial sanctions especially the Europeans.

    The second international standard that one does not fire SAMs and MANPADs at civilian aircraft and that one keeps them under control has been broken as in the annexing of the Ukraine again by Russia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Today a Malaysian airlines Boing 777 crashed in seperatist-controlled Ukrainian territory. RIP to the victims, a terrible, terrible tragedy for the friends and relatives.

    It may be of course a freak coincidence of a fatal defect happened in this combat zone, which additionally happened without any warning and gave them no chance to report back. According to the Corriere the seperatists claimed before the news broke to have shot down an Ukrainain transport plane. Perhaps somebody could quickly check that.

    It is needless to say that this potential seperatists statement would fit the hypothesis with by far the highest probability. They have recently shot down, with likely Russian delivered weapons and radar systems ( propably supported by Russian data) high-flying Ukrainian planes. Of course one can not rule out a missile directly fired by a Russian plane or a long range SA-system. The remote possiblity that Ukrainian forces might have shot it down, should also be considered.


    P.S:



    Which should point to a missile.
    Firn---check the heights of both the AN-26 shot down (height of 6/7,000M and now the Ukrainian claimed shot down of the 777 at a height of 10,000M.

    No Russian MANPADs have that range--but the Russian mobile SAM system BUK does and several have been reported very close to the Russian/Ukrainian borders in the last few days.

    There were solid rumors that a number of Russian armored elements made it over the "enhanced" security border five days ago--this could have been used to bring in the BUK system as the irregulars have been under massive air pressure by the SU 25s and they are short of MANPADs.

    http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malay...-a-981631.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 06:27 PM.

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    Firn--after the falls today of the Russian stock market and Rubel averaging 4-6% wonder what the markets will do tomorrow morning especially since the Ukrainians are stating it was potentially a mobile SAM system ---which they claimed downed the AN-26.

    Now what is interesting is that the Ukrainians were the ones stating BM21s were being fired across the Russia border and the EU/US went into a ho hum period until today when four different YouTube videos showed up and GoogleMap was used to come close to the firing point based on satellite vegetation comparisons.

    Would tend to believe them now on the SAM BUK claims.

    Also ---just shortly after the Malaysian airliner was shot down the Donetsk irregulars claimed a shot down but then went suddenly really really quiet when it was announced it was an airliner.

    If one looks at their claims from the last few days it does appear they seem to have a mobile system in the Donetsk area---there were rumors of armored vehicles being driven over the Russian border five days ago---it could have been the BUK system as well--it does require a radar trained gunner which I do not believe is usually a standard Ukrainian job as the Ukrainians do not have the BUK.

    From Voice of Russia today:

    http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...Republic-9468/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 06:24 PM.

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    As far as I can tell the seperatist statement about the downed Ukrainian plane supposedly came through VKontakte at 16:50 (local time?) by Girkin, the so-called defence minister of Donetsk. Maybe some Russian speaker could check that.

    Obviously it would only, if strongly increase the already high probability that the speratists shot down a civilian airplane causing the death of over 250 people. Still, despite the low probabilities one should not rule out a defect, direct Russian or Ukrainian involvment. Needless to add that considering the flight height the cause of the crash happened many km mostly west from where the debris landed.

    Truly a terrible tragedy, it must be heart-breaking for the relatives. Clearly the Malaysian airline as well as the Russian and Ukrainian authorities will face hard question why the plane was flying over that area. While the Russian-supported seperatists only recently made it clear that they were able to shot down high-flying planes this must have send alarm signals to all the relevant actors.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-17-2014 at 06:47 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    As far as I can tell the seperatist statement about the downed Ukrainian plane supposedly came through VKontakte at 16:50 (local time?) by Girkin, the so-called defence minister of Donetsk. Maybe some Russian speaker could check that.

    Obviously it would only, if strongly increase the already high probability that the speratists shot down a civilian airplane causing the death of over 250 people.

    Truly a terrible tragedy, it must be heart-breaking for the relatives. Clearly the Malaysian airline as well as the Russian and Ukrainian authorities will face hard question why the plane was flying over that area. While the Russian-supported seperatists only recently made it clear that they were able to shot down high-flying planes this must have send alarm signals to all the relevant actors.
    Sectorial sanctions by the US have been off the table to a degree but there are rumors that the US bluntly told the Russians to get the MANPADs under control as the international unspoken norm by the superpowers is and was---they view the use of MANPADs against civilian aircraft a second WMD event equal to 9/11. Once that genie is out of the bottle it even impacts the Russians.

    That view was also shared by Russia so this will cause the sectorial sanctions to now come as no international power player can back away from this event---publicly not to support the families of the killed will be hard to do especially when SAMs are in play.

    When it became evident several weeks ago that the amount of MANPADs inside the Ukraine indicated Russian support there was a short article that indicated if an airliner was hit then that would change the entire US/Russia relationship causing the hardening of the sanctions.

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    Firn---initially the rebels claimed around 1600 European time they did not shot the airliner down.

    Then two hours later they claimed they saw a Ukrainian SU 25 attack the airliner cutting it in half---which is a blatant lie as it is really hard from the ground to see what is happening at 33,000 feet as one can only see the condense trails from the ground unless it is fully clear skies and no clouds.

    KEY: the agency reporting both shot downs was in fact Life News the main Russian misinformation reporting from inside the rebel territories from the beginning. What is more interesting is it was Putin during a conversation today with Obama whot told Obama of the crash.

    Then this was twitted indicating they shot it down at around 1900 European time.

    Separatists earlier today claimed shot-down of An26 mil-aircraft at Torez.

    DNR says #MH17 down near Hrabove,20km away

    http://t.co/MUBTmXYniz

    KEY:---check the angle of flight of both points and the short distance---again an indicator of their shooting it down and now trying to cover it up---WHAT is interesting is that the Ukrainians are not stating they have lost a AN 26.

    Think they have in fact shot it down as the two impact points and events are strangely close together.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 06:56 PM.

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    Found this:
    ITAR-TASS on June 29
    Self-defence forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic have taken control over a missile defence army unit equipped with Buk missile defence systems, the press service of the Donetsk People’s Republic told Itar-Tass on Sunday.

    So far, no details are available about the number and condition of the missile systems taken over by the self-defence forces. The press service refused to comment.

    The Buk missile defence system is a mobile medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to defend field troops and logistics installations against air threats in conditions of heavy electronic countermeasures and intense enemy fire.
    MANPADS are a problem, but they're spitballs in comparison to an SA11 or SA17.

    My current impression is that it was thought to be a Ukrainian transport, rebels fired a missile, and MH17 was shot down. I would have thought that two-and-a-half weeks after a rebel takeover of a SAM complex, commercial aviation would have stayed well out of the area, but apparently my assumption was incorrect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Then two hours later they claimed they saw a Ukrainian SU 25 attack the airliner cutting it in half---which is a blatant lie as it is really hard from the ground to see what is happening at 33,000 feet as one can only see the condense trails from the ground unless it is fully clear skies and no clouds.
    I would be very impressed by the airmanship of a pilot able to take a Su-25 up to FL330, let alone make a pass at an aircraft cruising at slightly greater than the recorded top speed of the Frogfoot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    As far as I can tell the seperatist statement about the downed Ukrainian plane supposedly came through VKontakte at 16:50 (local time?) by Girkin, the so-called defence minister of Donetsk. Maybe some Russian speaker could check that.

    Obviously it would only, if strongly increase the already high probability that the speratists shot down a civilian airplane causing the death of over 250 people. Still, despite the low probabilities one should not rule out a defect, direct Russian or Ukrainian involvment. Needless to add that considering the flight height the cause of the crash happened many km mostly west from where the debris landed.

    Truly a terrible tragedy, it must be heart-breaking for the relatives. Clearly the Malaysian airline as well as the Russian and Ukrainian authorities will face hard question why the plane was flying over that area. While the Russian-supported seperatists only recently made it clear that they were able to shot down high-flying planes this must have send alarm signals to all the relevant actors.
    European flight controllers did not close the airspace as the height of travel was 33,000 feet well above the standard MANPADs.

    Commercial airspace is now closed for civilian aircraft.

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    DNR does in fact have the BUK SAM system as confirmed just recently.

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/1...ian-militants/

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07...people-aboard/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 07:15 PM.

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    Seems that the DNR commanders cannot get their stories correct----shortly after the videos of the black smoke coming from the airliner crash site hit the net he tweeted the following which is the translation.

    It appears that he thought it was a AN 26 that had been hit---and his in tweet he points out the AN 26 crash site which is exactly that of the Malaysian airliner.

    Now with the social media firming up that the DNR shot down the airliner with the BUK system---what is Putin going to do blame what the West?

    The video proof that he mentions is in fact comes from the Malaysian airliner crash site and is all over the web.

    The full translation follows:

    In the region of Torez, a An-26 was just shot down, crashing behind the “progress” mine. They warned: do not fly in “our skies.” And here is the video-proof of the next “aircraft downing.” It fell behind a slagheap. Not in a residential area. Civilians didn’t suffer. And there’s also information about a second downed airplane, supposedly a Su (Sukhoi).

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    FSB guy Girkin says that they shot down An 26.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/StateOfUk...212480/photo/1

    29.06 DPR claims that they got BUK.

    http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1287030
    http://i.imgur.com/7kAnlaS.png

    This source claims that BUK was in Sneznoe today.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/evromdn/s...20988730003456

    This news says that Ukrainian air force was attacking rebels in Snezhnoe 15.07.

    http://rusvesna.su/news/1405427799

    Rebels shot down that day Su 25

    http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1136996/

    Ukrainians first said that Russian forces are quilty, but rebels said they did it with Buk.

    http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/7/17/696045.html
    Last edited by kaur; 07-17-2014 at 07:32 PM.

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    So more and more points towards the Russian-supported seperatists. Social media and the need to deliver speedy propaganda cuts of course both ways.

    That the plane came from Amsterdam further reduces the probability that the Ukrainians shot it down, as it should have been monitored and followed by the Ukrainian air traffic controllers.

    ----

    I might add that news abouts such 'captured material' can easily be a smokescreen for weapons delivered by Russia. It reminds me a bit about the tank story...

    Of course while everything seems to indicate that the Russian-supported speratists or maybe regular Russian forces shot the plane down one should not rule out a defect or an Ukrainian missile.

    P.S: And to think that close relatives of mine flew a week ago only a bit more south of MH17 also towards South-East Asia. It is incredibly sad to think about the victims and their relatives, terrible indeed.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-17-2014 at 08:17 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    It is now appearing that the DNR rebels were aiming at a AN 26 that was flying a similar flight pattern as the Malaysian airliner--the AN 26 was carrying supplies that were going to be air dropped into a surrounded Ukrainian army group of units.

    Appears that the Ukrainian military has the voice commands over radio indicating that the command to fire was given against the "supposed' AN 26 but the missile when launched maneuvered towards the airliner instead.

    There are now indications being reported by local Ukrainians that a rebel armored convoy is on the move from one of their controlled towns towards the Russian border and it includes a BUK system--looks like they are trying to cover their tracks and get back into Russia.

    Die Informationen ber den Absturz der malaysischen Boeing 777 im Raum Torres in der Nhe des Dorfs Grabowo wurde durch eine Quelle im Verteidigungsministerium der Ukraine besttigt. Die Quelle im Kommandostab Sden erluterte Zensor.Net, dass das Passagierflugzeug aus einem Gebiet beschossen worden sei, das von Terroristen und russischen Legionren besetzt ist. Ukrainische Luftabwehrkrfte oder sonstige ukrainische Truppen gebe es dort nicht. In der Nhe des Abschussorts des Passagierflugzeugs verlief die Flugroute eines ukrainischen Militrtransporters des Typs Il-76, der unterwegs war, um Hilfsgter fr eingeschlossene ukrainische Truppen abzuwerfen. Die Quelle im Verteidigungsministerium nimmt an, dass die russische Luftabwehr den Befehl gab, das ukrainische Transportflugzeug zu vernichten, aufgrund eines Fehlers der Raketenangriff aber auf die zivile Passagiermaschine erfolgte.

    According to operational data from Information Resistance group, today around 1:30 PM EEST a convoy of terrorists was recorded in the area of Snizhne [Donetsk Oblast].

    The convoy included 3 tanks, 2 armored personnel carriers [APCs], a cargo truck with insurgents and a cargo truck with a mounted large-caliber machine gun. And also a tow truck with a gun mount, which transported the “Buk” air missile system.

    The convoy was moving in the direction of Dmytrivka [Donetsk Oblast].
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 07:51 PM.

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    Statement from Ukrainian Air Traffic Controllers who were talking at the same time to Russian Airspace Controllers indicate shot down as reason for crash.

    http://maidantranslations.com/2014/0...was-shot-down/

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    FSB guy Girkin says that they shot down An 26.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/StateOfUk...212480/photo/1

    29.06 DPR claims that they got BUK.

    http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1287030
    http://i.imgur.com/7kAnlaS.png

    This source claims that BUK was in Sneznoe today.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/evromdn/s...20988730003456

    This news says that Ukrainian air force was attacking rebels in Snezhnoe 15.07.

    http://rusvesna.su/news/1405427799

    Rebels shot down that day Su 25

    http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1136996/

    Ukrainians first said that Russian forces are quilty, but rebels said they did it with Buk.

    http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/7/17/696045.html
    kaur--there are reports coming from the Snezhnoe area that an armored convoy (was spotted today at around 1300 Ukrainian time) including at least one BUK is headed towards the Russian border---probably making a run for it trying to get it back into Russian territory.

    Some are indicating the command to fire was given in the Russian militay and it was voice intercepted by the Ukrainians.

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