Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

How's that any different from most conflicts in, say, the preceding 100 years? How is knowledge of the extent of the militia's autonomy or acknowledgment of Russian sponsorship relevant to U.S. ability to influence a favorable outcome?



Probably because the U.S. does not want its own war against Russia. If that's the case, I agree with the intention.



Does anyone like losing? So what?



The handling of the incident and crash site may open the door politically for more U.S. sanctions. But it's not the sanctions that's damaging Russia's economy; it's the uncertainty of the conflict's outcome. Historically speaking, sanctions are generally ineffective in compelling policy changes.



The Putin administration's popularity is at an all time high. Given effective state control of the media, it's obvious that any downward turn in the Russian economy will be blamed on the U.S. Is that the kind of political environment we want to foster in Russia? The Clinton and Bush administrations already effectively destroyed the credibility of the liberals in Russian politics.



And?



So - what you're saying is that the incident is a pretext for the U.S. to escalate the conflict further by providing arms and direct assistance rather than pursuing a cease fire and negotiated settlement? Has any consideration been given to the long-term political ramifications for Ukraine's internal politics and the dyadic relationship with Russia if the separatists are destroyed? Does that resolve Ukraine's political problems?



There are very few, if any, similarities between the incidents. If any two incidents share similarities, it's the U.S. government's response to it's shoot down of the Iranian airliner in 1988 in which the U.S. refused to apologize on the grounds that it occurred in a war-time environment. This is not a question of moral culpability but instead of a state's place in the international power structure. If Russia has the power to not take responsibility, why would it or should it?



In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.



I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).

It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.

So AP--let me hear your opinions on this Wikipedia statement--and you can keep it short here or take it off line via PM.

Morality (from the Latin moralitas "manner, character, proper behavior") is the differentiation of intentions, decisions, and actions between those that are "good" (or right) and those that are "bad" (or wrong).[citation needed] Morality can be a body of standards or principles derived from a code of conduct from a particular philosophy, religion, culture, etc., or it can derive from a standard that a person believes should be universal.[1] Morality may also be specifically synonymous with "goodness" or "rightness." Immorality is the active opposition to morality (i.e. opposition to that which is good or right), while amorality is variously defined as an unawareness of, indifference toward, or disbelief in any set of moral standards or principles.[

So AP based on your comment who is right and who is wrong and do you not think that holding dead bodies as hostages while their families want to bury them and grieve is what moral or immoral?

Do you consider the actions/any actions outside of just verbiage taken so far by Putin and the Russian government in attempting to assist in the international investigation and to properly secure the crash site moral or immoral AP?

AP--do you believe that a nation and or a group of nations that demand adherence to a common humanity standard and interactions between countries especially if it is a neighboring country is moral or immoral?

AP ---if one can/could/influence control the situation but chooses for political reasons to let the dogs of war roam in the defense of "self determination based on language only"---and that results in no actions being taken is that moral or immoral??

[OUTLAW 09]

STRELA 10Ms now in the Ukraine:

Wonder how an armored vehicle got through the Putin declared "enhanced security border"?

http://inforesist.org/en/borodai-we-...rela-10m-sams/

[OUTLAW 09]

Change of pace article from my world concerning the shot down:

Researchers at the anti-virus firm Trend Micro came across some suspicious tweets written in Indonesian language. The cybercriminals are using the trending #MH17 to lure innocent users who are actually looking for news related to Malaysian Airplane Flight MH17 crash down. The suspicious tweets started spreading just after Malaysian Airline tweeted on July 17: “Malaysia Airlines has lost contact of MH17 from Amsterdam. The last known position was over Ukrainian airspace.” Hundreds of users have already retweeted those malicious tweets that indirectly encourage their individual followers to visit the malicious links. The website belongs to a shared hosting located in U.S which also host number of legitimate domains and researchers concluded that the purpose behind the spam campaign could be to gain attention of the visitors in order to make money from the advertisement. Moreover, the shared hosting also provide hostage to a number of malicious domains as well, that are connected to a ZeuS variant and SALITY malware. ZeuS are very well known to steal financial information of the users, while SALITY is a “malware family of file infectors that infect .SCR and .EXE files,” researchers said in a blog post. “Once systems are infected with this file infector, it can open their systems to other malware infections thus compromising their security.” This is not first time cyber criminals targeted Malaysian airlines. Also few months back, spammers targeted missing Malaysian plan and spread malware on the social networking sites including Facebook, abusing the mystery behind the Malaysia Airline Flight MH370, a Boeing 777-200 aircraft that had gone missing by the time it flew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

http://thehackernews.com/2014/07/cyb....fAeDcbkb.dpuf

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

How do you see the incident, and your insistence of total Russian guilt in the matter, affecting the outcome of the conflict, if at all?

AP--notice the article leans in the direction I wrote about--especially the comments concerning Putin's actions-appears I am not the only one seeing Putin for what he is.

Notice the use of the term "war" but now from the Russian viewpoint. Russia is in fact "at war" at least that is Putin and co.'s view.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia...200001106.html

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade not knowing anything lately mirhond--you guys have got to get your stories correct---kind of like calling the kettle black when it had been repainted five hours earlier white.

now we have a Russian Ambassador seemingly another Russian expert of authenticating voice intercepts stating the intercepts much like you stated mirhond are "fakes".

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140721/1910...epts-Fake.html

one of the men who spoke on the tapes stated but only after the US indicated they were authentic (maybe the NSA whispered in his ear) that YES the tapes were authentic and that was his voice BUT it was taken out of context ---wait again ----what was taken out of context he did not say but still an admission the tapes were valid----probably taken out of context was---maybe he jwas thinking hey we shot down a AN 26 which he admitted to on them but really in the back of his mind it was a civilian airliner and he knew it but he just "misspoke".

but wait... did not the Ambassador state the tapes were totally "fakes"---he must have not checked with central control in Donetsk for his interview marching orders

care to comment on the ambassador just as you were wrong mirhond especially after the mercenary on the tapes admitted it was his voice?

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian smokescreens number 10 and 11---indicating they are still trying to pin it on the Ukrainians "assuming" the Ukrainians shot down the plane either with the SU 25 which might be a technical challenge and their own Buk system that they alledged "moved somewhere".

Actually the SU 25 is an old story just recycled for today since the first time through it did not fly as well.

Interfax:
07/21 16:59 ON THE DAY BOEING CRASHED RUSSIAN CONTROL MEANS OBSERVED SU-25 ATTACK AIRCRAFT ASCEND IN ITS DIRECTION - DEFENSE MINISTRY

This is the second time around as well for this story which was first released by the Russian FM.
Interfax:
07/21 16:55 THE DAY BOEING CRASH OCCURRED UKRAINIAN BUK MISSILE BATTERY WAS REDEPLOYED TOWARDS DONETSK TO AN AREA WHERE MILITIA IS BASED - RUSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY.

You would think that the Russian media information war guys read this morning that the US has the pinpoint launch site and there were no Ukrainian Buks in that area. Maybe that is what they are trying to counter.

Probably for internal consummation or for the EU meeting today where new sanctions will be announced.

[mirhond]

comrade not so Russian expert mirhond---here is where you and I greatly differ---if two different satellite recordings indicate the exact location of the Buk missile launch and that is in fact nowhere close to/next to/near to /approximately next to/or even remotely in the air above a Ukrainian AD site then

Links or you know what..

Mister moral fa..., sorry, Outlaw, do you have a "plan B" in case an international investigation comes to conclusion that MH17 was shot down by Ukrainians? Or you just shrug it off and say "So what? #### happens."
If no, I give you a hint - blame Putin, as usual

Perhaps it would be worth revisiting Kaur's post from yesterday.

Moral culpability is ultimately without consequence at this level. It still exists, though. I will be interested to see whether Putin is invited to G20.

You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject, corteously translated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw,

just what is then your position to 1) a proxy army fighting in the place of a regular army

I have no 'position' on this. States will use proxies to forward their own interests when the conditions suit them. Every major power has done this. What makes Russia's activity in Ukraine uniquely objectionable? At a political level, Washington, et. al will use all the ammunition available, including moral outrage, to impose it's desired political outcome on the Russians. Got it. But that's not useful here at our level in actually understanding the problem and identifying viable solutions.

is Russia in fact after using Russian weapons from Russian soil a belligerent or what a very friendly not interested third party

Yes, Russia is a belligerent. Russia purposely intervened in the conflict in the pursuit of their desired political ends; something I have stated repeatedly in other threads. In fact, since the formation of the Federation, Russia has about a 70% success rate in its military interventions. Moscow exploited Washington's lack of foresight to gain a seat at Kiev's political table. It paid off in Crimea; eastern Ukraine is still up for grabs.

you are really attempting to tell me the US has no ability to "influence"?

I did not say that the U.S. has 'no ability to influence'. But I have said that U.S. options are extremely limited in this scenario for a variety of domestic, regional, and relative capabilities reasons.

2. have you really read the new Russian military doctrine "New Generation Warfare"--in it you will see the concept of carrying out UW in support of political warfare

I agree. I have written about this as well. But moralizing about it doesn't actually prevent or reverse it.

And if you come to the realization that it is in fact following every step of their doctrine---then what is your solution.

I stated at the start of this crisis that a negotiatied settlement forming a unity government through an open and fair election is my proposed solution. That's assuming that territorial integrity, political sovreignty, and self-determination are principles we believe should govern the international system and inter-state relations. Whatever you think of the current Kiev government, that opinion is not universal, especially in parts of eastern Ukraine obviously. Destroy the separatists by military force does not actually resolve the fundamental political problem in Ukraine.

I think I have earned the right to have morals---you might agree but the lack of holding to basic morals has complicate the world the last 11 years---ask Bush about that.

Hold whatever morals you want. Just don't assume that everyone else does or should agree with you.

flip the question--do you think the Gaza incursion now by Israel is a valid response to a bunch of rockets that have not hit anything other than sand?

Define 'valid'.

So let's see AP the shot down and killing of 298 people and now holding their bodies as hostages is what---a just a back to business as usual event---come on even you cannot believe that AP.

The incident itself and the deaths is of course sad. However, is it politically or materially relevant to the conflict's outcome? Washington is attempting to make that case - but it's not because of the moral revulsion in killing innocent people. It's because it's further leverage in building a coalition in sanctioning Russia - a strategy that I think is ineffective. The stated goal is stop Russia's aid to the insurgents - probably with the goal of isolating the insurgents so they can be destroyed. Why would Russia reverse course now that it's already committed to their aid? The only time Moscow walked back from its commitments was when the Donetsk referendum asked to be annexed to Russia like Crimea, but Russia ignored that request (which also is an indicator that Russia does not have 100% control over the movement). Moscow seems to want Ukraine on a low burn; that makes sense. They don't want to commit any further than necessary, like Washington, but they also do not want to give up their influence in Ukraine without a fight. And they have strong public support domestically in this cause. Neither the shoot-down incident or the sanctions change that calculus. So - yes - after the furor fades, it will be back to 'business as usual'. What is the political outcome that you are expecting? That Russia will say, "Gee, you're right, we're such terrible people, and our cause is so unjust, we'll just let go of Ukraine and let the West do as it pleases"? Come on Outlaw, you're smarter than that.

[mirhond]

Outlaw, I have no 'position' on this.

Oh, you can't "have no position", Qui non est nobiscum adversus nos est.
by Outlaw's logic you might be Putin's proxy or even an FSB agent, as well

ps. thanks a lot for a new signature.

[Biggus]

You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

I'm going to go with what the bulk of the evidence suggests at this time. I don't agree with every single one of Kaur's points, and I think they're oversimplified, but thus far everything is pointing at rebels. Most likely with some level of Russian support or advice, or at least consent. You yourself a few days ago admitted that it was 60% likely that the separatists did the deed. But hey, how much further investigation can realistically happen at this point when virtually all of the physical evidence has been compromised?

Something else has been bothering me. If a Buk TELAR went live without someone in the Russian military approving of it in a place where it could reach into Russian territory, I'd expect at the very least a near-immediate ramping up of ECM jamming, and most likely within a couple of hours perhaps an anti-radar missile or three. Surely there would be some concern when a radar warning receiver somewhere in Russia started detecting emissions.

[AmericanPride]

For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and American minisrty of truth, may be) says so.

At some level, Russia is responsible. We can debate all day long about the extent of that responsibility and what that means politically and legally, but in the dyadic relationship between the U.S. and Russia, I doubt that determining culpability will actually move the parties closer to resolving the conflict.

In a quantitative analysis I completed several months ago, I determined that Russia ranked #2 in military power behind the U.S (and #3 overall behind the U.S. and China). The U.S. has a strong and distant lead on Russia, but the structural advantages of occupying second place (due in large part to Russia's nuclear arsenal) is enormous. Sturucally speaking, the U.S. is not a hegemon; it does not have the unilateral power to dictate terms to every other state or alliance of states. It has the power to dictate terms to most other states, but Russia is not one of them as the situation in Ukraine makes clear. So - if the U.S. is unwilling to commit to further conflict escalation (for a number of reasons), terminating conflict will have to be completed through a negotiated settlment. What will such a settlement look like?

[mirhond]

I
Something else has been bothering me. If a Buk TELAR went live without someone in the Russian military approving of it in a place where it could reach into Russian territory, I'd expect at the very least a near-immediate ramping up of ECM jamming, and most likely within a couple of hours perhaps an anti-radar missile or three. Surely there would be some concern when a radar warning receiver somewhere in Russia started detecting emissions.

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

[mirhond]

So - if the U.S. is unwilling to commit to further conflict escalation (for a number of reasons), terminating conflict will have to be completed through a negotiated settlment. What will such a settlement look like?

So, there is a possibility that US is flogging Ukraine to fight harder for a face sake? It's a new idea to me.. well, how much it is important "not to lose face" for the US political class?
Anyway, even if we take this hipothesis as a base, something must be done with "proxies", who already invested their lives into the fight. Sheer speculation - real federalisation of the Ukraine might work, in some extent.

[OUTLAW 09]

Links or you know what..

Mister moral fa..., sorry, Outlaw, do you have a "plan B" in case an international investigation comes to conclusion that MH17 was shot down by Ukrainians? Or you just shrug it off and say "So what? #### happens."
If no, I give you a hint - blame Putin, as usual



You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject, corteously translated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

so sensitive so sensitive comrade mirhond when the truth hurts it really hurts my friend---

here is another smoke screen fake press release as the Putin and company is desperately trying to divert the global outrage over the Russian destruction of a civilian aircraft or comrade mirhond you really do not think there are European "volunteers" in the Ukraine do you?

now comrade mirhond---do not run down that rat hole of European Nazi's forming to support the junta set of comments--you wore those out about 100 comments ago my friend.

come on comrade you all just cannot accept that the Ukrainians have out maneuvered Putin and are day for day reestablishing their sovereignty--
WITH virtually no assistance from outside---all on their own---seems Ukrainians are better fighters than you Russian mercenaries comrade mirhond so get over it--- they are losing and losing badly even with Russian support.

which means comrade mirhond Russia is not much of a superpower right mirhond?

yes Putin could now invade the Donetsk but then his economy would be destroyed within six months.

Another smokescreen "fake story" to divert the crash narrative:

Interfax from today mirhond:
07/21 19:39 RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY DEMANDS EUROPEAN STATES INVESTIGATE FACTS OF THEIR CITIZENS' PARTICIPATION IN CLASHES IN EASTERN UKRAINE

mirhond your side is side stepping --side stepping the debate my friend.

Putin is up to 12 different stories about the crash now my friend mirhond and they are all "fakes"---you guys are losing slowly the information war narrative.

read and weep

[OUTLAW 09]

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

see military expert mirhond---what you do not get is the why?---why if I know what the use of the SAM 11 will be namely air space denial of Ukrainian fighter bombers hitting my Russian mercenaries hard---which I have supplied to the Russian mercenaries---then WHY do I really care if I detect the radar signature of the launcher which is a tactical radar-- which when it is turned on is of short duration--this was a feature that makes this system hard to defeat---the signature is designed to defeat the HARM by not being available to be fixed and destroyed.


once the signature is detected there is little one can do at 3.5 mach.

so expert mirhond catch up on your Russian SAM systems.

even if the signature was seen the Russian AD guys would have been cheering on their ground launch crew as they to would have thought they were firing against a AN 26.

[AmericanPride]

So, there is a possibility that US is flogging Ukraine to fight harder for a face sake? It's a new idea to me.. well, how much it is important "not to lose face" for the US political class?

That's a possibility. Both the Republican and Democratic Parties are relatively hawkish and U.S. negotiating practices are not exactly known for their give-and-take. In addition, there is a growing anxiety about America's future as well as its military strength, given the outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the engineered fiscal 'crisis'. I think there some long-term structural problems brewing in the U.S. political scene that are affecting U.S. ability to address problems like Ukraine.

[Biggus]

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

Perhaps you're right, perhaps a hard response is unlikely. I just have a hard time believing that Russia would do nothing about a TELAR going live not very far from the border. Especially given the number of flights originating from Russia passing through the area, and the availability of equipment suitable for jamming a Buk fire control radar.

[OUTLAW 09]

Perhaps you're right, perhaps a hard response is unlikely. I just have a hard time believing that Russia would do nothing about a TELAR going live not very far from the border. Especially given the number of flights originating from Russia passing through the area, and the availability of equipment suitable for jamming a Buk fire control radar.

biggus--go in and research the abilities of the SAM 6 guidance radar and lock on radars both combined in the launch vehicle as is the SAM 11--it is not that easy---in fact during the Cold War the SAM 6 and 8 defense rings were feared by the 15/16 pilots and there were estimates of high losses until SEAD could kick in knocking holes for pass through.

Again the Russians would have seen only an extremely short radar signature of the tactical radar and it tends to search, and lock on a target and then it is automatically fed to the missile and then the radar goes silent ago and the missile radar guidance picks up the mission to strike riding a multiple series of ever changing frequencies.

If you noticed the WH stated there are missile launch signatures and the trajectory was seen and tracked which then can be backward calculated to define the launch site down to a really narrow error margin---the Ukrainians are saying the same thing.

The SAM 11 was in tactical mode when it fired not the theater battery mode where radars are always on and sweeping.

Not sure if you have much experience with the Iron Dome of the latest versions of the Patriot---they do not have shoot and scoot capacity which has always been the Russian AD doctrinal theory----theater defense and AD on the move.

What is interesting is that in an interview actually carried two days ago on Russian One with residents in the area of the crash they claimed they heard two distinct explosions then they saw the plane in several large pieces coming down.

If one looks at the video release showing the white tractor trailer carrying the Buk---there were actually two missiles missing ---the middle two which surprised me when we slowed it down---as the reporting initially stated one was missing.

Again if I have supplied the Buk across the border I seriously doubt the Russian AD TOC was not informed it was across the border---at least the senior Russian TOC watch officer would have been informed by the GRU---there are no go it alone types within the Russian military especially with their theater AD.

Today's Russian Defense Ministry briefing depicting Ukrainian radar tracks is actually interesting for the single reason they have a really good AD software simulation system that produces such tracks for their AD exercises much as the US does.

BUT did the Russian Defense Ministry say a single word about recorded launch signatures which I know for a fact they would have seen--if they had not then they have a really massive gap in their AD technology which I seriously doubt. The question begs to be asked--why did they not report that data if they are accusing the Ukrainians. That would be the smoking gun--BUT no smoking gun.
Again their show was another diverting smoke screen trying to protect Putin and deflect the narrative.

One can depict anything anyone wants to depict and the look and feel is great and to the uninformed the data being presented is in fact "real".

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, you can't "have no position", Qui non est nobiscum adversus nos est.
by Outlaw's logic you might be Putin's proxy or even an FSB agent, as well

ps. thanks a lot for a new signature.

come on non expert and certainly no missile expert mirhond---the Russian mercenaries lost another four towns today did they not and the Ukrainian Army entered several suburbs of Donetsk today did they not?

you are also certainly no Russian MRL expert as you could not even see the three different calibers and then you would have known there is no such MRL beast anywhere in the world that fires three different rockets at the same time---come on mirhond improve yourself.

thought for sure you would claim it was an Ukrainian BM 27--but you missed your opportunity did you not on that video mirhond

[kaur]

I watched the RF MoD press conference. Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov managed to keep hard face till the end of his presentation and then he slipped in a hard way. At 27:00 he states that RF has not supplied to ополчение/separatists no BUK, no other weapons and no military machines. Lady translator was not precise in her translation. Even Gubarev's team admitted that they got weapons and ATGM systems from Russia, NATO wrote about tanks, we saw North Caucasus military district Grad MRL, in Girkin basement we saw MANPAD systems and ATGM systems. If we know all those facts, think about generals statemant, then how can we belive what he said before?

Ps that SsangYong banner with Krasnoarmeisk, Dnepropetrovskaja 34 address will not prove anything. Kranoarmeisk may be just closest city with SsangYong dealer.