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Thread: Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

  1. #61
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    mirhond, you genius, it seems that you don't understand how Buk may operate.
    I didn't ask you to introduce me to the misteries of air defence, Mr. Technical Sergeant. Why you just don't bunk this particular video and find a better one, with real-time footage of the launches for example, or provide us with american satellite images, as you did before?
    Last edited by mirhond; 07-18-2014 at 01:54 PM.
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  2. #62
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    mirhond, before posting in military forum something about military stuff, just find out how things work. So many beautiful pics with nil value to advance conversation.

    Do you rember the last SBU tape about OSCE hostages? Who was in charge? Cossack Kozytchin.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YuW8uej6Gk&app=desktop

    Who was in charge, when OSCE observers were freed? Cossack Kozytchin.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk76ot4JDA4&app=desktop

    Who was talking in yesterday's tape about downed spies in passanger plane? Cossack Kozytchin.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g

    Kidnapping and shooting down passanger plane is enought to find out who is Mr Kozytchin.

    http://vvd2003.narod.ru/ataman2010.htm
    Last edited by kaur; 07-18-2014 at 02:11 PM.

  3. #63
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    From the available information, it seems likely that the insurgents misidentified the civilian aircraft as a military target. Given that in the past trained military personnel (e.g. American sailors, Israeli intelligence) have made similar mistakes, it's not surprising to me that the insurgents have also made that mistake. It's also clear that Ukrainian and other assessments of insurgent air defense capabilities were mistaken (which IMO raises interesting questions about the role of airpower in counter-insurgency when a credible air defense threat exists). Of course, both sides are putting their media machines into high gear but unless evidence is revealed that either the insurgents or Moscow ordered the intentional destruction of a civilian aircraft, I do not see how this materially changes the situation in Ukraine.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Also - the recorded claim by an insurgent leader that the airliner was a spy plane, while outlandish, is not surprising given the circumstances. The conflict has been going on for 3 months with a number of aircraft destroyed, so I'm sure there was some genuine surprise that civilian airliners were conducting routine flights (professionals here and elsewhere have expressed similar surprise). Also - when the Israelis downed a civilian airliner over the Sinai many years ago, they made they same claim about the aircraft being a spy plane while the US Navy claimed the Iranian airliner it destroyed had the signature of a fighter aircraft..
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Council Member BayonetBrant's Avatar
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    The personal political partisanship that is overwhelming this thread, with its underhanded name-calling and barely-veiled insults, have dramatically reduced its usefulness as any sort of dispassionate information source.

    I can find propaganda (for either side) in plenty of places.

    I come to SWJ to avoid the shouting matches and read about events as analyzed by professionals with experience in the field whose lives have (literally) depended on "getting it right".
    Armchair fanboys are a dime a dozen and their shouting-match takeover of what had previously been a useful information source overwhelming the more reasonable voices I prefer to read around here.
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  6. #66
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17 (catch all)

    This thread refers to the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 being shot down over eastern Ukraine. It has caused some controversy here, discussions on the Ukraine / Crimea have done before and so the posts have been moved here.

    The main thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5978
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-18-2014 at 07:50 PM. Reason: add thread
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Also - the recorded claim by an insurgent leader that the airliner was a spy plane, while outlandish, is not surprising given the circumstances. The conflict has been going on for 3 months with a number of aircraft destroyed, so I'm sure there was some genuine surprise that civilian airliners were conducting routine flights (professionals here and elsewhere have expressed similar surprise). Also - when the Israelis downed a civilian airliner over the Sinai many years ago, they made they same claim about the aircraft being a spy plane while the US Navy claimed the Iranian airliner it destroyed had the signature of a fighter aircraft..
    I seriously doubt that the presence of civilian air traffic was a surprise to anyone sitting in a TELAR vehicle in Donetsk. You're correct that many aviation-minded folks are surprised that air traffic was still being routed through the area, but it's not unreasonable to be surprised in this case. If you weren't conducting flight operations in the area, you probably wouldn't know that they were taking place. There have been an enormous number of flights that have overflown the battlespace. In fact, MH21 (an A380) was intending to follow a very similar route, and was diverted around Ukrainian airspace mid-flight.

    Edit: Here is a reference for flights over Ukrainian airspace over the last week.

    Worthwhile also keeping in mind we're also discussing a three decade old air defence system that is highly automated and designed to be employed by conscripts. Therefore, I would hazard a guess that there would be a number of former servicemen who are sufficiently familiar with the employment of the Buk. There may not need to be an enormous amount of Russian assistance required.
    Last edited by Biggus; 07-18-2014 at 07:30 PM. Reason: Added link

  8. #68
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Biggus,

    In the rush to prove that the insurgents destroyed the aircraft, Kiev also threw away its strongest propaganda coup in recent months. The transcripts released clearly indicate that the insurgents thought they were targeting a military aircraft and accidentally destroyed a civilian one. Although unjustified, errant rounds do happen in combat (some might argue routinely - the US is not immune from this problem, either). This is unlike when the USSR downed the Korean Air flight in the 1980s, the lack of information originating from the Soviets enabled Reagan to make a strong political condemnation and seize the moral narrative. Though the West can express its moral outrage, by ceding this issue, Kiev has given the insurgents the political space to request a cease-fire, de-escalate (or regroup), and to build good-will through cooperation on investigating the incident.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  9. #69
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post

    Worthwhile also keeping in mind we're also discussing a three decade old air defence system that is highly automated and designed to be employed by conscripts. Therefore, I would hazard a guess that there would be a number of former servicemen who are sufficiently familiar with the employment of the Buk. There may not need to be an enormous amount of Russian assistance required.
    Good point. So far it seems that only TELAR (transporter erector launcher and radar ) vehicles of the Buk were seen in seperatist country. This begs the following questions:

    1) Were only TELAR vehicles operated within the seperatist area?
    2) Were other components* present but not detected by OSINT?
    3) If is 1) is true was there target acquistation support from Russia?
    4) How were the seperatists able so far to identify civilian planes?

    Some TELAR vehicles spread over the speratist territory would of course result in the smallest footprint relative to the whole Buk system but lack smoothly integrated target acquisition and command&control. The latter might of course come from 'outside' sources but with considerable higher friction. The quality of training of the crew is obviously unknown.

    A seperatist civilian traffic control doesn't seem to exit, of course. However hundreds of planes have passed over that corridor in recent days so some checks must have been in place. To which extent was the idenfication done by seperatists and to which degree from Russian territory. This and other services might be hard to distinguish in practical terms, but friction must have been considerable.

    *command vehicle, target acquisition radar (TAR) vehicle, transporter erector launcher (TEL)

    P.S: Good to see that the post were shifted to a new thread.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Quote Originally Posted by BayonetBrant View Post
    The personal political partisanship that is overwhelming this thread, with its underhanded name-calling and barely-veiled insults, have dramatically reduced its usefulness as any sort of dispassionate information source.

    I can find propaganda (for either side) in plenty of places.

    I come to SWJ to avoid the shouting matches and read about events as analyzed by professionals with experience in the field whose lives have (literally) depended on "getting it right".
    Armchair fanboys are a dime a dozen and their shouting-match takeover of what had previously been a useful information source overwhelming the more reasonable voices I prefer to read around here.
    Then you have missed a great misinformation campaign targeting SWJ and yet he is still with us.

    Where were you when he came aboard?

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Good point. So far it seems that only TELAR (transporter erector launcher and radar ) vehicles of the Buk were seen in seperatist country. This begs the following questions:

    1) Were only TELAR vehicles operated within the seperatist area?
    2) Were other components* present but not detected by OSINT?
    3) If is 1) is true was there target acquistation support from Russia?
    4) How were the seperatists able so far to identify civilian planes?

    Some TELAR vehicles spread over the speratist territory would of course result in the smallest footprint relative to the whole Buk system but lack smoothly integrated target acquisition and command&control. The latter might of course come from 'outside' sources but with considerable higher friction. The quality of training of the crew is obviously unknown.

    A seperatist civilian traffic control doesn't seem to exit, of course. However hundreds of planes have passed over that corridor in recent days so some checks must have been in place. To which extent was the idenfication done by seperatists and to which degree from Russian territory. This and other services might be hard to distinguish in practical terms, but friction must have been considerable.

    *command vehicle, target acquisition radar (TAR) vehicle, transporter erector launcher (TEL)

    P.S: Good to see that the post were shifted to a new thread.
    The SAM 11 launcher is mounted on an armored tracked vehicle as with the SAM 6 system the tracked vehicle has it's own tactical acquisition radar to allow it to fire on the move. The other radar systems are designed for fixed operational acquisition covering a large AD area---thus they are not really needed when one just wants to lob a radar guided missile into the air until it locks on.

    Kind of like a really big MANPAD on steroids---and Biggus is correct it was designed for conscripts in mind as are all of the Russian weapon systems.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 08:32 PM.

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    Taken from Kyiv Post today:

    Here is the voice intercept video indicating the BUK was brought over the Russian border together with a crew which answers Biggus's comments. There is an English translation at the end of the Post article.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgdqdklrqDA

    Here is the video link for the Russian AF pilot who was asking for clearance to shot down the Ukrainian SU25 starts around minute six. Sorry in Russian..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pInHtYTsiU

    What begs the question is---if the SBU can intercept and release these materials just what are the superpowered NSA and CIA doing?---surely they picked up "something".

    What is missing from the story is there is another SAM 11 launcher moving around that was captured on 29 June---tweet photo was published together with the reported damage then deleted early yesterday---although the electronics were damaged by the Ukrainians before it was captured.

    There is a Moscow based report that has been released indicating a great electrician was able to repair it and that all the weapons coming into the Ukraine from Russia are being smuggled in via a "civil society". That mobile launcher evidently did not have any missiles thus missiles are coming in via Russia.

    Ukraine’s security service, known as the SBU, on July 18 published additional intercepted telephone conversations that further implicate Russia in the downing of the Malaysia Airline Flight 17, killing all 298 people on board on July 17. The conversations allegedly took place between Russian military intelligence officers and their armed proxies who discussed the delivery of a Buk missile system from Russia ahead of the downing of the Malaysian passenger jet.

    Classified by NATO as SA-11 GADFLY, Buk missile systems are advanced, radar-guided surface-to-air missile systems, or SAM in military lingo. Four Russian SAM systems could knock down a passenger jet flying at 33,000 feet, according to Defense Tech, the same altitude at which the Malaysian airliner was flying when it was hit.

    In the intercepted conversations, the Russian officers and Kremlin-backed militants express relief in finally getting their hands on a Buk-M system, one of four modified versions of the Russian SAM. Kyiv believes the Russians in Donetsk Oblast used the Buk-M2 because Ukraine’s military doesn’t have them in its arsenal.

    Until recently, Ukraine had enjoyed relative air superiority over the Kremlin-backed militants.

    But on July 14, a missile allegedly fired from the Russian side – it’s unclear whether it was air-to-air or ground-to-air – shot down an An-26 Ukrainian military transport plane in Luhansk Oblast near the Ukrainian-Russian border, according to the Ukrainian government.

    On July 16, a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet was allegedly shot down by an air-to-air missile fired by a MiG-29 jet in Russia, according to Andriy Lysenko, spokesperson for the National Security Defense Council.

    To destroy the Su-25, on July 16 at 6:55 p.m. near the town of Amvrosiyivka, “the Russian Air Force ordered the pilot of a MiG-29 plan to use an R–27T (AA–10 Alamo–B) medium range Infra Red homing air–to–air missile.

    This type of missile cannot be detected by the Su–25’s SPO–15 radiation warning receiver, and neither can it be detected by satellite surveillance systems or post–launch surveillance systems,” stated Lysenko. “During the air fight, Russian fighter aircraft homed in on the Ukrainian plane three times for a guaranteed rocket launch.

    After the target was acquired with the help of an onboard quantum optical location station, the MiG–29 fired one missile at the Ukrainian plane. It is only thanks to the skillful anti–missile maneuvers of the Ukrainian pilot that a direct hit was avoided. The missile hit the motor nozzle and the pilot crash–landed the plane.”

    At a press briefing in Kyiv on July 18, Lysenko showed a radio conversion allegedly between the Russian MiG-29 pilot and his base as he attempts to shoot down a Ukrainian aircraft. The conversation starts after the sixth minute.

    Concerning the delivered Buk system from Russia, the SBU says it crossed into Ukraine at 1 a.m. on July 17 close to the town of Sukhodolsk. Later that morning at 9 a.m., it arrived in Donetsk, but was later moved to Pervomaisk. After the Malaysian passenger jet was shot down, the Interior Ministry's intelligence unit recorded a crawler tractor carrying a missile system moving towards the border of Russia. The video clearly shows missiles, with the middle one of three missing.

    “We're analyzing this and other collected information. We think this is the very Buk system which shot at the civilian plane flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur,” Interior Ministry Avakov said. He said that the terrorists were “trying to hide evidence of the terrible crime.”

    Below is the video and full English-language transcript of alleged conversations between Russian military intelligence officers and their proxies regarding the receipt and delivery of a Buk system from Russia
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 09:16 PM.

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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Then you have missed a great misinformation campaign targeting SWJ and yet he is still with us.

    Where were you when he came aboard?
    Stop. BayonetBrant has a point, and it doesn't matter where he was when mirhound started posting. I will not let you take him to task while also making what I take to be a passive aggressive statement about operations of the Council.

    We all have someone here we more or less decide to ignore, so start doing so with mirhound and stay on the course of posting facts or opinions supported by facts.

    EVERYONE: Just disengage from mirhound and ignore him if you believe he is attempting to spread disinformation.
    Last edited by jcustis; 07-18-2014 at 08:54 PM.

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    It looks like the Russian mercenaries are in fact moving the SAM 11 launcher around on a semi trailer low boy with a white tractor---the same white color of the low boys being used to move the T64s into the Ukraine from Russia that kaur has found previously.

    Here is a short video showing potentially the SAM 11 that brought down the airliner--notice one of the missiles is missing from the launcher.

    There were reports with a video posted by Voices of the Ukraine yesterday of a tractor trailer was trying to make it to the Russian border shortly after the sh.. hit the fan and it became known that a civilian airliner was shot down.

    Notice the relative good speed of the tractor trailer. The use of a tractor trailer for movement is interesting as it allows for a rapid redeployment instead of running on tracks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4HJmev5xg0
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 09:14 PM.

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    Appears now that the DNR leader Girkin who posted his joy yesterday over the shot down of a AN 26 and then backpedaled when it became known that it was a civilian airliner seems to be getting weirder and weirder with his statements--maybe the pressure it getting to him.

    The statements of Girkin posted on his Vkontakte page on July 18 appeared to be a lot more confusing.

    According to Girkin, the plane’s passengers were already dead when the plane went down.

    “I just talked to two people who were gathering corpses, both from Shakhtarsk (the city where the plane crashed) so they came to the spot only 30 minutes after the tragedy. I am writing from their words. They said many corpses were totally bloodless and looked like blood had clotted long before the catastrophe,” the leader of Russian backed insurgents wrote.

    Сiting the same locals, Girkin also said a strong putrid smell was noticed in the area of the plane crash. “This smell could not have appeared in a half an hour in any weather, and it was cloudy, not very hot yesterday,” he wrote. According to the terrorist leader there was a special medical cargo on board.

    In the same statement Girkin-Strelkov admitted plane pilots were alive and did die as a result of the crash. “The cabin, and its front is in a good condition, is literally spilled with their blood all over,” he wrote.

    NOTE: if the missile exploded behind the cockpit it would have severed at that height the cockpit due to decompression and metal fatigue as the 777 is mainly composite with a stiff inner structure and it would have spiraled down and actually would have remained fairly well intact which he is confirming---much in the same way the Lockerbie PA AM flight did as it split into a number of major pieces after the onboard Semtex explosion which would have been about the same amount of explosive power in the missile warhead.

    Meanwhile Girkin’s posts claiming the credit for shooting down a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport plane were deleted and his official group on Vkontakte started backpedaling, stating that information was not confirmed and was just reposted from another source.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 09:22 PM.

  16. #76
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Handmade infographics made with flightaware.com images.

    How it's happened that previous flights flew ower Zaporozhie, but this unlucky one got itself downed over Luganskaya oblast'?

    Last edited by mirhond; 07-18-2014 at 09:30 PM.
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    So much for the DNR stating that the OSCE would have access to the crash site----initially the same DNR "claimed" that both flight data recorders had been found and sent to Russia then via Interfax the Russian FM stated today they were to remain in the Ukraine and now the DNR "claims" they have not found them. Who would have though that flight recorders have become the "Russian hot potato" that even the Russian FM is running from.

    Interfax 18:00 Russia not going to take black boxes from Ukraine crash site - Lavrov (Part 2)

    If I were the DNR I would not want them "recovered" either since a missile impact would be recorded due to the sounds generated as well as vibrations of the impact.

    Well so much for that from Russia demanded thorough investigation. When will the world stop believing anything that comes out of Moscow as Putin has repeatedly side stepped, lied, and double spoke for the last four weeks and nothing that he promised he would do has actually been done.

    Interfax 19:51 Russia ready to provide maximum assistance to probe plane crash in Ukraine - Lavrov tells Malaysian counterpart

    Interfax 17:17 DPR leaders promise to ensure safety for air crash investigators
    After they have captured and held three different OSCE inspector groups who would trust the DNR?

    From Reuters today:
    (Reuters) - Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe were not able to secure an access corridor on Friday to the site where a Malaysian airliner crashed in eastern Ukraine, the OSCE's chairman said.

    "They did not have the kind of access that they expected. They did not have the freedom of movement that they need to do their job. The crash site is not sealed off," Thomas Greminger told Reuters by telephone.

    "In the current circumstances, they were not able to help securing this corridor that would allow access for those that would want to investigate," he said.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 09:52 PM.

  18. #78
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    Cover-up: Ukraine rebels destroying all links to MH17 air atrocity

    UN demands full inquiry but armed Russian separatists block access to crash site amid confusion over black boxes

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-mh17-removed

    There is also confusion over the black boxes and other devices apparently salvaged from the plane. A rebel military commander initially said he was considering what to do with them, while another rebel leader, Aleksandr Borodai, contradicting his colleague, said the rebels had no black boxes or any other devices.

    The Ukrainian interior ministry added to fears of a cover-up when it released video purportedly taken by police showing a truck carrying a Buk missile launcher with one of its four missiles apparently missing, rolling towards the Russian border at dawn . The video could not be independently verified.

    Other material on rebel social media sites was being deleted, including pictures showing the alleged capture of Buk missile vehicles by rebels from a Ukrainian air base last month.

    This is the critical point in the article:
    Video footage allegedly taken on Thursday appeared to support the idea that pro-Russia separatists had been to blame. It showed a Buk battery seemingly being moved in the rebel-held area between Snizhne and Torez close to the crash site. A still picture allegedly shows a missile in vertical launch mode beside a supermarket in Torez. However, the location has still to be established.

    NOTE:
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 11:06 PM.

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    The photo of the BUK parked near some stores has now been geolocated.

    Pro-Russian Separatists' BUK Geolocated in Torez

    20:08 (GMT)

    The picture of the BUK missile system said to be in the possession of pro-Russian separatists which we reported 17 July, parked behind some stores in a town in southeastern Ukraine, has now been geolocated by Aric Toller on Gagarin Street in Torez.

    One has got to love YouTube---this dash cam video helped locate the BUK accurately.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_Gm...utu.be&t=1m30s
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-18-2014 at 11:23 PM.

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    Anyone have any ideas why the Russian separatists are stealing the dead passenger bodies?

    From Daily Beast:


    Pro-Russian Separatists Reportedly Steal 36 Bodies from Malaysian Airliner Crash

    21:20 (GMT)

    Separatist fighters from the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) have reportedly stolen 36 bodies of people killed in the downing of the Malaysian airliner, rbc.ua reported.

    The press service of the Donetsk Region State Administration made the announcement, citing eye-witnesses.

    The Interpreter has translated the statement:


    "After the end of of the active stage of work at the site of the tragedy, representatives of the DPR arrived at the village of Rassypnoye and stole 36 bodies of victims of the air crash. Armed fighters drove away rescue workers and took communication devices from most of them. They loaded the bodies into a truck like sacks. According to the fighters, they intend to take the bodies to Donetsk."


    We have no verification of the report, but the fact that the statement was made by a local state administrator adds a certain credibility to it.

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