US releases unclassified missile trajectory flight and it is not from an Ukrainian Buk---let's see how mirhond spins this one as well as Putin and the Russian AF General.
Ukrainian SSU has released a voice intercept of a Russian officer who fired the missile and his cell call back to a Russian officer in Moscow informing him that an aircraft had been acquired--waiting to see if the Ukrainians release it this evening.
http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/...d_4008709.html
Biggus---here is a link to the German site Focus---half way down is a tweet with the missile trajectory indicating as you had previously mentioned the missile came directly head on against the planes' flight path---that would explain the shrapnel in the cockpit area of the debris. It would have detonated lower and in front of the plane spraying the front of the plane, some of the sides and bottom of the aircraft--engines would have been hit a well causing secondary shrapnel. Frontal hit was even from a Russian mercenary himself who reported on his twitter account a lot of blood in the cockpit area which would indicated the pilots took a full hit from the shrapnel.
Missile is also fired from a location where no Ukrainian military unit is located meaning no Ukrainian Buk systems--so it will be interesting on how the Russian AF General, and Putin spins this.
Will be more interesting to see how the EU takes this.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-22-2014 at 07:33 PM.
It seems as if it is getting more difficult for the US to justify having sat on its hands from the get go in Crimea. The Germans will be focussing on their World Cup victory so as to attempt to take away the world's and their nation's notice away from their foreign policy cowardice in this regard. We live in interesting times.
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
additional link that body parts are still at the crash site.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ne-357424.html
RF MoD briefing managed to lead me to wrong tracks.
Briefing showed behind BUK trailer Krasnoarmeisk address, Dnepropetrovskaja street 34.
http://gorod.tomsk.ru/posts-files/82/650/i/9(1).png
I used MoD presented fact and found out that at Dnepropetrovskaja 34 is located SsangYong dealer "Донецкая Автомобильная Компания". I said this also in this forum. Sorry.
Today I know, that on the banner is written автосалон (autodealer) "Богдан", which has shops in Donetsk and Mariupol. If you look at the region's map, no wonder that between Russian border and Donetsk, there are banners inviting to visit Donetsk shop. MoD just pasted wrong address to slide to mislead audience. How on earth they managed to zoom this video
http://avtosale.ua/avtosalon/Bogdan_avto_doneck-711/
Compare the Bogdan logo and logo at the MoD banner.
This blogger tracks down the BUK video to city Lugansk.
http://teh-nomad.livejournal.com/2080954.html
Just another lie by both MoD and that Nashi/Kremlin/ Potuptchik subordinate.
Last edited by kaur; 07-22-2014 at 09:44 PM.
That is a good question. My suspicion that a Frogfoot was nearby is based entirely on the Russian narrative - why claim a Frogfoot is present if you could say it was a Flanker? Only logical answer is that there's evidence to suggest it.
There's also another question to ask: Which particular radar track? A fire control radar might not see a contact 25km away. A surveillance radar would (you would hope) detect a 777, although it may not classify it as non-threatening.
I have seen a track of one missile, is there a track available of the second? The flightpath is much more direct that I'd have expected, but I haven't looked closely at too many cases of non-maneuvering targets.
A question: Does the "Spanish ATC operator" exist? Are there any interviews of him/her?
Biggus--so are we seeing a gap in capabilities that was not previously known about the 11---meaning the onboard tactical radar has a much shorter acquisition range distance as anticipated when it is on it's own so to speak and it seems to not be able to discern targets other than it is a threat target--which would make sense if the SAM is accompanying a moving column of armor on the move in say enemy territory were it is assumed everything flying above it is an enemy aircraft ---am betting it picks up Russian IFF signals and everything else if simply enemy.
Normally civilian flights follow each other in trail formation and either a tad higher or lower depending on how the ATC stacks them so I am "surprised the Russian AD TOC seemed to not have "seen" the trailing 777 which reflects badly on their AD oversight of their neighbors and is another massive gap.
I am surprised there was no mention of a second missile ---although if there was an overhead viewer it would have detected the launch flash unless the heat flare of the first covers the immediate launch of the second one---if a second one suspect it was riding just mere seconds behind the first and a tad lower and beneath if it was fired so that overhead might have seen only one track.
Or my first assumption the launch vehicle had only three onboard when it fired.
The SU could have been launched as a ground support mission and had nothing to do with the much much higher aircraft since it was on a ground support mission based on the heavy ongoing fighting and their heavy use currently and it might have gone higher due to MANPAD threats which were real and the Ukrainians are almost out of flares so maybe he was just riding the larger aircrafts signature.
Although the Ukrainians are claiming no aircraft at all in the air so is this merely a narrative changer to get everyone looking at the Ukrainians?
Assume the path was more direct due to the firing angle being shorter due to the closeness of the launch vehicle-again a potential indicator that the onboard radar has a short acquisition and lock on distane than widely assumed.-if further away would assume a more of an arch.
Have not seen the interview anywhere.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 06:43 AM.
Outlaw,
as I understood the discussion, the S-11 has usually no secondary radar, therefore, the crew has no chance to identify civilian aircrafts by electronic means when operating stand alone.
The radar of the S-11 has a range of about 30 km, an aircraft with >800 km/h travels around 14 km/min, hence, the aircraft would be directly above the launcher in 2 minutes, after around 4 minutes it would be out of range again.
How long does it take to make a quite solid decision to launch the missile? What is the likelyhood that a military target has some kind of HRAM (= stress for the crew)? The S-11 is IIRC no fire and forget system, the crew has to operate the radar during the 15 seconds the missile is in the air.
I don't know that I'm brave enough to say that the fire control radar is necessarily shorter-ranged, but it certainly sees only a much smaller patch of sky. Imagine that the surveillance radar it would normally be paired with in a complete unit is like a person who can panoramically view the area, while a fire control radar is more like a person who can only view the area through a cardboard tube. The person with the panoramic view would tell the person with the tube where to aim in order to see the contact. I would assume that in a Buk battalion, the surveillance radar might also be capable of tracking, in which case it would be possible to hand off data to a launcher at a different geographical location without the launcher ever needing to establish a lock.
I don't know that it's a newly discovered flaw, and we don't really know what other means the shooter was using to watch the airspace.
You are entirely correct about the IFF system. If a contact does not have Russian IFF, then it's "enemy". Even if that contact has a squawking transponder.
Not simply a little lower, there are active civillian airports not too far away, so there would be a number of aircraft climbing from low altitude normally in the airspace. That is, apart from on the Russian side where the prior NOTAM forbid flight below 26kft and then later 32kft.
As I was speculating earlier, I question how closely tied in Russia's civillian and military airspace control is. I do have a very hard time believing that anyone watching a surveillance radar would not see a 777 emitting normal transponder codes, though.
If the system has seen single Buk launches before, it would be sophisticated to detect two different heat blooms. I would also not assume that they'd follow the same track. Normally, these missiles will climb up to a great distance above their target. This would put the missile into a position where it only needed a minimal amount of energy for maneuvering, for instance if the aircraft dramatically turned 180 degrees from the launch.
I would still have expected two missiles, though. A single launch means a dramatically lower kill probability under normal circumstances.
I would assume if a Frogfoot was in the area, it would be far more concerned with doing what it is designed to do, ie kill stuff on the ground. I do note that when MANPADS are in an area in numbers, current US employment of A-10s is to engage from greater altitude. I'd wager that Ukrainian Frogfoot employment favours a higher altitude, or at least did until a Buk became active.
My thoughts are that it's unrelated to the shootdown, but I don't know that I necessarily believe that it wasn't present.
I find this somewhat interesting. Not that you haven't seen one, but that one doesn't seem to exist.
I'm not Outlaw, but I'll add my understanding.
A crew operating independently in a TELAR can check quite easily for the presence of civillian traffic, provided they have an internet connection. I'm going to assume that it is possible to use the internet in Donetsk simply because of the use of social media. So, all a conscientous person would need to do is to look at FlightAware or one of the other live flight tracking apps.
Time from locking on to launching is very short. The data I've looked at says 15-18 seconds. But, there is a period of several minutes prior to this in order to prepare the missile. Crew involvement with the mid-course updates is minimal, if any. Nearly everything is automated.
A normal Buk system (ie, a full complex of surveillance radar etc) is actually capable of shooting down HARM-type missiles. It's not perfect for the Buk M1s, but for later variants there is a very high chance that they'd intercept it before it hit a radar. If a solo TELAR crew thought they were going to be attacked, they'd turn the radar off and move the vehicle.
Biggus.
A question: Does the "Spanish ATC operator" exist? Are there any interviews of him/her?http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europ...e-answer-video2. The mysterious Spanish airport controller source. A mysterious Twitter account, @spainbuca, purporting to be a Spanish air traffic controller at Kiev's international airport named Carlos tweeted out that two Ukrainian fighter jets had shadowed the Malaysian airliner and that Kiev was behind its downing. In May, the Spanish-language channel of Kremlin mouthpiece RT interviewed Carlos and blurred out his face because he claimed he was in danger for criticizing the Ukrainian.
However, the Spanish Embassy in Kiev has no record of Carlos, reports Fox News Latino. “We have no knowledge of ‘Carlos’ having been in Ukraine. There is no record of his passing through the Consulate, and no one from the (relatively small) Spanish colony knows him,” it said. Carlos’s Twitter account no longer exists.
This blogger did follow @spainbuca, until that accoutn was closed. Blogger took some screenshots. This blogger claims that according to Ukraine law air traffic controller must be Ukrainian citizen. This professional must know English. @spainbuca isn't citizen and can't speak English. Suspicious.
http://tyler78.livejournal.com/224873.html
Last edited by kaur; 07-23-2014 at 09:59 AM.
Very. One might wonder who they thought they were fooling.
Biggus/kaur---we got a big round of applaus yesterday from the Russian National Security Council---well maybe not SWJ but at least mirhond
Ivesitia reported the RNSC meeting had two parts 1) the known Putin speech threatening the West and 2) the classified piece where an "insider reported" that they discussed at length the "total failure" of their current information war ie propaganda and the term propaganda was used. meaning the western and global media was not buying the Russian explanations and stories regardless of what was being put out.
In their analysis of the sudden "information warfare failure" they placed the blame on "bloggers and social media" and are trying to figure out how to sideline them in the coming days.
Interesting as I had immediately seen the massive stumble starting exactly with the downing narrative---and those "zealous Christians with their rituals" did not help matters at all.
At one point they were up to 14 different reasons/stories/fakes all competing for news cycles against the simple story of 298 dead bodies.
Looks like even DoS agrees that the Russian Defense Ministries presentation of the downing is in fact "sheer" propaganda.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...da-357499.html
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 11:02 AM.
It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. Temperature in Moscow is 25 C and generals are angry, because can't go to datcha and wives are sitting on their necks. At the same time most of Russia is on vacation. This makes situation very bad for mirhond's unit. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ. Be aware
Last edited by kaur; 07-23-2014 at 11:13 AM.
kaur---this is a good example of why their propaganda has failed---mirhond and company do not fully understand the concept of marketing and propaganda to be good is much like marketing a bad product---but in marketing the message has to be close to the truth or the word of mouth will kill it.It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ
This is where mirhond and company missed everything---the social media picked up the "actions of the "drunken" zealous types on the crash scene, they picked up on the massive disrespect in they way they treated the bodies---they forgot things like common decency still pulls at the hearts of many in this world of ours and they simply forgot that looting and plundering of dead bodies for their credit cards and Smart phones is not a really good winner of the hearts and minds of the world and they basically forgot that the mercenaries love hearing their voices and seeing themselves in social media.
And they forgot that interviews with the locals who were extremely shocked at having bodies drop in their yards and their natural farmer mind sets of what is right and wrong would come in interviews even in Russian media made.
Cannot find the link again---it was an article on how the Separatists ar now using the downing to get more support in their fight against the Ukrainian Army.
Even in their stronghold, the separatists' mishandling of the crash scene has alienated some Donbass residents. Retired schoolteacher Vera Papchenka said the victims' remains deserved better treatment.
"We want a fair investigation of this tragedy — there was a body of a child here," she said, grieving at the scene where the remains of the cockpit lay. "We came here today to express our condolences to the children that died here. There were 80."
Separatist forces have kept local residents from volunteering at the crash site. "They took one of my relatives because he went into the fields to help right after the crash, to see if there were survivors," said Halina Vasilevna, 40, who lives near the site. "They took him away for three days, and we didn't know where he was — they beat him up. We were so scared. These separatists — we know they beat people, and they steal vehicles at will."
She was outraged enough to openly criticize the separatist cause, a rarity in this region. "Very few people here support the separatists," Vasilevna said. "I want Ukraine to be one nation."
Some say the rebels' actions reflect how unprepared they were to manage a crisis with the world's eyes on them and have undermined sympathy for their cause.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 11:26 AM.
Well it looks like one of the Strela 10Ms they mercenaries claimed to have has been destroyed and the SU25 survived---another reason to keep the A10 around--congress should pay attention.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ly-354296.html
kaur--another reason mirhond and company are failing ---the current narrative that they have nothing to do with supplying any Russian weapons to the mercenaries --nothing, nada nichts---then comes along a Ukrainian short article with a photo of a Russian weapons system that was never in the Ukrainian military inventory and presto all previously released propaganda lies dying in the first news cycle as no one even remotely is now believing anything that comes of of Russian media or from Putin.
Pictures are worth a thousand words---The Shmeh weapons system (thermobaric) if used in defense and attack mode is massive in the right hands.
http://en.inforesist.org/terrorists-...ied-by-russia/
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 11:39 AM.
Vice News scores again, with a short nine minute report; it includes footage from the scene, the OSCE statement and that of the Donbass leader, who quickly "shoots himself in the foot". Why do I say that. Just watch the scene footage 3.00-3.30 as what appear to be local fire and rescue use a circular saw to remove a piece of the plane:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNXf_HncM20
davidbfpo
Biggus---a combined German and Italian newspaper releases story on Italian journalist interview with a separatist who had been ordered by his commander to go immediately to the crash scene and "capture the pilots"---confirms the initial voice SSU intercepts that they had assumed a military aircraft had been hit.
http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2...-mh17-abschuss
Article also reveals that the SSU did not include the voice comments of the Russian GRU who was the person called by the separatists---his words--"The pilots---where are the pilots?"
The German newspaper FAZ released an article quoted in the German die Zeit from today online that an Italian news journalist (Corriere della Sera)spoke shortly after the downing with a separatist who was at the crash site almost immediately as he had been told by his commander to capture the pilots who were coming down by parachute. When they arrived they realized it was not a military plane but a civilian plane that had been hit.
FAZ was able to confirm the story via conversations with two other members (identified by the combat names) of the unit and the Italian newspaper was able to identify the first individual via photos the journalist had taken of the group. Both newspapers confirm the story and persons interviewed and two members of the separatist unit also admitted they knew what had been said and what was quoted was correct.
One of them stated that it had been a mistake to say what they did and maybe they should have worded their comments differently as their statements “make it sound like the separatists had shot down the plane.
NOTE: The separatists stated the locals cheered when hearing about the shot down as they had been bombed recently by Ukrainian planes--so maybe they were anticipating more Ukrainian aircraft coming back and imply waited.
Reference the initial voice intercepts the SSU released what was not relased in them was the fact that the Russian GRU individual on the other end stated “What about the pilots—Where are the pilots? Literally after being told a plane had been shot down.
Die F.A.Z. hat von anderen prorussischen Kämpfern derselben Einheit übereinstimmende Berichte erhalten wie die zuvor im „Corriere della Sera“ veröffentlichten Informationen. Zwei von ihnen haben auch ihre Kampfnamen mitgeteilt. Die Aussagen der Aufständischen, mit denen diese Zeitung am Dienstag sprach, bestätigen die des „Corriere della Sera“.
Der Zeuge der italienischen Zeitung konnte anhand eines Fotos aufgefunden werden. Er wollte sich zwar selbst nicht noch einmal äußern, aber zwei seiner Kameraden waren zur Aussage bereit. Einer sagte, die Gruppe habe nach der Explosion von ihrem Vorgesetzten den Befehl erhalten, „dort hinzugehen und den Mann am Fallschirm zu finden“. Ein anderer fügte hinzu: „Lassen Sie mich erklären. Jedes Flugzeug, das hier auftaucht, ist ein feindliches Flugzeug. Weil wir selbst keine Flugzeuge haben. Und die Flugzeuge, die hier fliegen, sind feindliche Flugzeuge.“ Die Kämpfer wiesen an dieser Stelle darauf hin, dass auch die Bevölkerung der Umgebung sich im ersten Augenblick über den Abschuss gefreut habe, weil sie glaubte, ein Kampfflugzeug der Regierung in Kiew sei getroffen worden, und weil solche Maschinen zuletzt eine Ortschaft in der Nachbarschaft „bombardiert“ hätten.
Den Kämpfern wurde während des Gesprächs mit der F.A.Z. anscheinend deutlich, dass sie im Begriff waren, ihrer eigenen Sache zu schaden. Einer sagte jedenfalls einschränkend, statt von einer Suche nach Piloten zu sprechen, „wäre es richtiger zu sagen: wir wurden hingeschickt, um die Sache zu klären, und notfalls jemanden festzunehmen.“ Er fügte hinzu: „Sonst wäre es eindeutig so, als wären wir schuld“.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 01:17 PM.
Good report to watch. I think the line between recovering bodies and recovering incriminating evidence is quite blurry here. I'd really like to think that there was a body that the gentlemen with the equipment were busy freeing from the wreckage.
Did anyone notice the guy with the AK off safe just before the nine minute mark?
From yesterdays US intel briefing---comment by one of the briefers kind of sums up the US view of the Russian Defense Ministry's presentation.
“We’re confident no Ukrainian air defense systems were in range of the launch site or the crash site,” one official said, disputing Russian media reports that the Ukrainian military may have fired the shot. “So based on what we now know, to believe the Russian version of events, a Ukrainian SA-11 out of range travels a great distance through enemy territory, waits for a civilian airliner, does something that no Ukrainian SA-11 has done heretofore and fires a missile, fights its way out and back to base and somehow persuades separatists to post on line that they shot the aircraft down.”
US analyst humor at work---noticed the Russian said nothing today on the briefing on either Interfax and or RIA.
Noticed that at yesterday's RNSC meeting Putin stated he would try to influence the separatists---then yesterday morning the US recorded yet another 20 tanks crossing from Russia into the Ukraine.
GMTI sensors must be working overtime these days----AWCS is getting a great workout.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-23-2014 at 01:38 PM.
Biggus:
The latest Russian theory on "who did it"?---- and "it definitely was not us or the separatists that downed the aircraft"
From Interfax today:
14:32 Ukrainian Buk-M1 might have mistaken Boeing for spy plane - Russian expert
Not sure there was a "spy plane" in the area because if it was then the Russian Defense Ministry somehow "missed it" in their briefing when they depicted the various aircraft tracks---maybe it was in "stealth" mode from Mars?
One has to love these unnamed "Russian experts".
The next excuse is about five hours away based on their release cycle---they will wait to see if this one grabs any attention in the media before they move again.
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