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Thread: Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

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    Does anybody know how long the training course is for the crew of a Buk battery in the Russian air defense forces is? I am asking because I suspect it is a long one. Therefore since the "separatists" only got going in April or so when Putin got home from the Olympics I figure it is highly likely that the "separatists" Buk battery that destroyed this airplane was manned wholly or mostly by regular Russian air defense troops. Maybe the guys who swept out the vehicles were "separatists" but everybody else was regular Russian armed forces.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    The photo of the BUK parked near some stores has now been geolocated.

    I missed the earlier link - where's that photo?

    Thanks!
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    Quote Originally Posted by BayonetBrant View Post
    I missed the earlier link - where's that photo?

    Thanks!
    BB---photo was embedded in a short tweet input under the individual named in the report ---that geolocated the BUK---was on Daily Beast.

    Appears that the tweet and photo as well as the dash cam link have been taken off---looks like the IC had it pulled for oblivious reasons as it was a damming photo and I do not think Putin and co. realized it could in fact be found. Dash cam link still works.

    Dash cam link again:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_Gm...utu.be&t=1m30s

    Why do I say the IC pulled it---during the entire Ukrainian event a number of really true open source available to the world type of OSINT photos, tweets with links and YouTube videos have been pulled only to later turn up being released by DoD. The problem is that when DoD gets their hands on any open and available to all OSINT they immediately classify it at the S level.

    Do not think it was pulled by the author who released it or maybe DB released it without his authority---maybe just a copyright thing not the IC but DB does have close ties to DoD for a lot of their online reporting.

    As it was in fact parked right next to a food store chain that has been providing food to the separatists. It was the exact marking of the food store outside logo and painting of the store that turned up in the dash cam video.

    The tweeter has some experience in video mining and geo locating as then he tied the location from the dash cam to the exact Google Map location from an overhead shot.

    At about 1:38 into the video you will see just in passing on the left side of the road a outside advertising yellow and red in color--was the same markings on the photo---this dude is good first to find the video and then to notice a really quick pass by of the colors and then to triangulate it to Google Map.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...d-ukraine.html

    There were two videos yesterday via YouTube that showed the BUK---one in an armored convoy and the second one on a white tractor trailer. There are reports out there that indicate both videos contained accurate timestamps and some are trying to geolocate the locations of the two videos as well.

    Just as they did from the four YouTube videos depicting BM 21 fire from inside Russian on a Ukrainian military convoy which resulted in high losses of personnel and equipment.

    So if war is defined by an aggressive military strike from one country into another country then in fact Russia is at war with the Ukraine especially after these videos which were also used to geolocate the BM 21 fighting point inside Russia. In blunt terms it was indeed an act of war by Russia and yes that strike kind of disappeared from the news cycle due to the airliner.

    That BM 21 military strike by Russia on the Ukraine went under in the global reporting as it was replaced by the downed airliner---makes one wonder if the shot down was in fact an attempted coverup of the BM 21 strike as harsh as that sounds---but in Russian terms it would have been accpetable.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-19-2014 at 08:38 AM.

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    Default Just me two cents...

    I have been following this thread from the beginning and must admit to have enjoyed the cut and thrust as it has developed over the months even though some have posted stuff without sources etc. I appreciate it can be bewildering for those who stop by periodically as they don't know the history and the characters involved. Sorry that I am out of town for a while and not able to contribute as much as I would like but certainly appreciate the contributions and enjoy the back and forth of Outlaw, kaur, Firn and Mirhond and other bit players.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Does anybody know how long the training course is for the crew of a Buk battery in the Russian air defense forces is? I am asking because I suspect it is a long one. Therefore since the "separatists" only got going in April or so when Putin got home from the Olympics I figure it is highly likely that the "separatists" Buk battery that destroyed this airplane was manned wholly or mostly by regular Russian air defense troops. Maybe the guys who swept out the vehicles were "separatists" but everybody else was regular Russian armed forces.
    carl---the BUK is defined as an operational theater wide AD system emphasis on system equal to say the Patriot ---both can shot down aircraft, inbound cruise missiles and guided rockets much as the Iron Dome does in Israel. The Russians claim it can even shot down laser guided munitions.

    It is a complicated system as is the Iron Dome or Patriots.

    The onboard tactical radar allows it to shoot and scoot in the defense of units on the move---the accuracy tends to fall off therefore the four missiles system before reloading.

    But you are right no one from the street walks in and fires the missile without understanding radar operations. The radar operator finds the target passes the data to the missile and then launches---it is a fire and forget type of missile system as it was designed to engage a high number of targets via fire and forget especially due to the speed of the missile once launched. And it is a solid system rivaling the Patriot--some say even better.

    The SAM 6 which it replaced was bad enough for US AF pilots due to a really excellent radar guidance system that was extremely hard to defeat if at all---this one is even worse to fly against.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-19-2014 at 08:50 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    It looks like the Russian mercenaries are in fact moving the SAM 11 launcher around on a semi trailer low boy with a white tractor---the same white color of the low boys being used to move the T64s into the Ukraine from Russia that kaur has found previously.

    Here is a short video showing potentially the SAM 11 that brought down the airliner--notice one of the missiles is missing from the launcher.

    There were reports with a video posted by Voices of the Ukraine yesterday of a tractor trailer was trying to make it to the Russian border shortly after the sh.. hit the fan and it became known that a civilian airliner was shot down.

    Notice the relative good speed of the tractor trailer. The use of a tractor trailer for movement is interesting as it allows for a rapid redeployment instead of running on tracks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4HJmev5xg0
    I have gone over the video a number of times--there was a claim that one missile was missing---but in fact it looks like two are missing.

    Begs the question was two fired at the airliner to ensure a kill or was one fired previously that brought down the AN 26 from over 6,000/7,000m---which means this puppy has been around the area for awhile and not the one captured on the 29th of Jun. Ukrainians had assumed it was a Mig 29 firing out of Russia--but what if it had been fired from inside via the BUK?

    Two might though have been fired at the airliner due to the apparent breakup of the entire aircraft in mid air into large pieces but then again decompressions forces and serious structural damage from the explosion could have caused the break up just as well via a single missile.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-19-2014 at 09:05 AM.

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    carl asked

    Does anybody know how long the training course is for the crew of a Buk battery in the Russian air defense forces is? I am asking because I suspect it is a long one.
    Carl, in the Soviet Union thousands and thousands conscripts, I would even say tens of thousands, if you consider the area that must be protected and how long those missile systems have been in use, were trained to operate BUK and other SAM complexes. After hearing comment from one of those former conscripts, he said that after week of refreshment, he could do the same, that happened in Ukraine. According to last SBU interception manned BUK arrived from Russian side.

    Comment from Finnish military journal. There are BUK systems in Finnish armed forces (they got BUK in the middle of 1990. and now replacing them with NASAMS), so they know what is possible and what is not.

    It is possible that the MH17, approaching high from west, was misidentified as Ukrainian military transport aircraft. Even more likely so, if the pro-Russian troops were operating under the impression that the airspace over eastern Ukraine had been declared as a no-fly zone for the international overflight traffic (it was not). It is also possible, even probable, that missile was launched quickly, using just a single Buk-M1 launcher and radar vehicle (TELAR) in autonomous mode – so without the assistance of command and 3-D target acquisition radar vehicles and functions of a complete Buk-M1 –system. In this case it has a severely limited capabilty to track AND identify targets,
    If and when the launcher was operating in haste, without any assistance from normal SAM-battery or –battalion level functions, even the exact flight level and velocity of the target may have been missed or ignored – even more likely so, if the rogue TELAR vehicle was manned by just a single trained Buk-operator. And yes, contrary to what has been now claimed, a single TELAR vehicle in autonomous mode can be operated, if necessary, by a one well-trained operator, assisted by few quickly trained ersatz-operators. And there isn’t exactly a shortage of trained Buk-operators, whether reservists, active or ex-soldiers, in Ukraine or Russia – or in many third party countries, including Finland.

    And after the 3,5 mach semi-active homing 9M38 missile has been successfully launched to the proper interception vector, it has a very near 100 % hit (and kill) probability against any civilian passenger aircraft, following a straight path in static cruising speed and altitude – unless somebody shuts down or blocks the fire control radar from the TELAR vehicle.
    http://www.suomensotilas.fi/en/respo...responsibility
    Last edited by kaur; 07-19-2014 at 10:54 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Biggus,

    In the rush to prove that the insurgents destroyed the aircraft, Kiev also threw away its strongest propaganda coup in recent months. The transcripts released clearly indicate that the insurgents thought they were targeting a military aircraft and accidentally destroyed a civilian one. Although unjustified, errant rounds do happen in combat (some might argue routinely - the US is not immune from this problem, either). This is unlike when the USSR downed the Korean Air flight in the 1980s, the lack of information originating from the Soviets enabled Reagan to make a strong political condemnation and seize the moral narrative. Though the West can express its moral outrage, by ceding this issue, Kiev has given the insurgents the political space to request a cease-fire, de-escalate (or regroup), and to build good-will through cooperation on investigating the incident.
    This will depend on the separatists having a sufficiently disciplined command structure. It only takes one stubborn squad leader to make recovery of the bodies that much harder. I don't think anyone really believes that those responsible aren't currently destroying evidence, but preventing repatriation of the dead would remove any legitimacy that the rebels could ever hope to have in the West.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    carl---the BUK is defined as an operational theater wide AD system emphasis on system equal to say the Patriot ---both can shot down aircraft, inbound cruise missiles and guided rockets much as the Iron Dome does in Israel. The Russians claim it can even shot down laser guided munitions.

    It is a complicated system as is the Iron Dome or Patriots.

    The onboard tactical radar allows it to shoot and scoot in the defense of units on the move---the accuracy tends to fall off therefore the four missiles system before reloading.

    But you are right no one from the street walks in and fires the missile without understanding radar operations. The radar operator finds the target passes the data to the missile and then launches---it is a fire and forget type of missile system as it was designed to engage a high number of targets via fire and forget especially due to the speed of the missile once launched. And it is a solid system rivaling the Patriot--some say even better.

    The SAM 6 which it replaced was bad enough for US AF pilots due to a really excellent radar guidance system that was extremely hard to defeat if at all---this one is even worse to fly against.
    It is a very complicated system for sure. It's complicated because it is so highly automated. My understanding is that two operators in the TELAR perform a four step procedure each, and then the missile is away.

    The Buk system is comparable to the Patriot, but a single independent TELAR is not a particularly dangerous threat. Narrow beam radar doesn't offer much situational awareness. It makes me wonder whether the operator knew that he'd pick up contacts where the radar beam was pointing, of whether he randomly scanned a patch of sky.

    Quick edit:
    I understand that individual radar sets have their own unique emissions signatures, ie it is possible to differentiate between two more-or-less identical TELARs through SIGINT/ELINT. Something to think about.
    Last edited by Biggus; 07-19-2014 at 12:20 PM.

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    Default RT “Covers” the Shooting Down of MH17

    RT “Covers” the Shooting Down of MH17

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post

    The Buk system is comparable to the Patriot, but a single independent TELAR is not a particularly dangerous threat. Narrow beam radar doesn't offer much situational awareness. It makes me wonder whether the operator knew that he'd pick up contacts where the radar beam was pointing, of whether he randomly scanned a patch of sky.

    Quick edit:
    I understand that individual radar sets have their own unique emissions signatures, ie it is possible to differentiate between two more-or-less identical TELARs through SIGINT/ELINT. Something to think about.
    I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.
    'Outsider' help is definitely one big question.

    The report I linked to previously noted that an entire Buk complex had been captured. I'm not sure of the range limitations in the datalink between a TELAR and the surveillance radar. It might be a considerably long range, given that it's a theatre-wide system. So, where is the rest of the system?

    I do not see a way for Russia to escape responsibility in this event. Russia knew that the rebels possessed at least a TELAR, apparently provided technical expertise to enable operation of the TELAR, and provided woefully inadequate warning to civil air traffic. Closure of route segments below 26kft over Eastern Ukraine had been in effect for months, then fourteen hours before the event issued a new NOTAM closing those route segments up to 32kft, when they knew that they had supplied, trained and assisted rebels in the use of a weapon with a 49kft ceiling. The timing of the new NOTAM certainly suggests that there was knowledge that something was going to happen soon in Eastern Ukraine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Anyone have any ideas why the Russian separatists are stealing the dead passenger bodies?

    From Daily Beast:


    Pro-Russian Separatists Reportedly Steal 36 Bodies from Malaysian Airliner Crash

    21:20 (GMT)

    Separatist fighters from the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) have reportedly stolen 36 bodies of people killed in the downing of the Malaysian airliner, rbc.ua reported.

    The press service of the Donetsk Region State Administration made the announcement, citing eye-witnesses.

    We have no verification of the report, but the fact that the statement was made by a local state administrator adds a certain credibility to it.
    Firstly, why I have to do your job and provide a link
    http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/accidents...18072014222500

    I believe that's because you don't know Russian, so you are unable to find the source by yourself.
    Secondly, do you realise that dead bodies rot, especially under summer sun?
    Thirdly, do you understand that separatists cant "stole" anything from territory under their control? They can "take" the rotting bodies which happened to be intact and bring it to the morgue in Donetzk. They are zealous Christians, at least, so I suppose they are driven by moral duty to take care of the bodies.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Handmade infographics made with flightaware.com images.

    How it's happened that previous flights flew ower Zaporozhie, but this unlucky one got itself downed over Luganskaya oblast'?

    Weather.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Firstly, why I have to do your job and provide a link
    http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/accidents...18072014222500

    I believe that's because you don't know Russian, so you are unable to find the source by yourself.
    Secondly, do you realise that dead bodies rot, especially under summer sun?
    Thirdly, do you understand that separatists cant "stole" anything from territory under their control? They can "take" the rotting bodies which happened to be intact and bring it to the morgue in Donetzk. They are zealous Christians, at least, so I suppose they are driven by moral duty to take care of the bodies.
    come on comrade Russian expert---which turns out you are not mirhond---I gave you the source, the time and the article is it that hard to use the internet and 1) search for Daily Beast, and then step 2) read which I know is hard for you all since you are working at least five different web sites---because by the way your use of English changed twice in the last five days.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    Weather.
    Biggus--that is too simple for mirhond as he was proving another point which it was the fault of the aircraft driver not the proRussian irregulars on the ground.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Firstly, why I have to do your job and provide a link
    http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/accidents...18072014222500

    I believe that's because you don't know Russian, so you are unable to find the source by yourself.
    Secondly, do you realise that dead bodies rot, especially under summer sun?
    Thirdly, do you understand that separatists cant "stole" anything from territory under their control? They can "take" the rotting bodies which happened to be intact and bring it to the morgue in Donetzk. They are zealous Christians, at least, so I suppose they are driven by moral duty to take care of the bodies.
    come on comrade not sure Russian expert mirhond

    1. the common language used here is actually English which you you seem to use in three different forms depending on who is using you login
    2. you did not seem to read but I forgot you cannot read English--the bodies before being thrown like sacks of potatoes were searched and stripped of cell phones---you do know as a Russian just how expensive iPhones/Smart phones are going for in Russia right mirhond?

    Wow---mirhond you are so correct they are in fact zealous as zealous as ultra nationalists or actually fascists or as Russian TV was recently using Nazi's can be correct mirhond as you yourself up to about three weeks ago were using the exact same words junta, Nazi's Right Sector thugs.

    By the way was it not these same "zealous" Christians that have been torturing and killing other what "non zealous" Christians who do not want to be ruled by Putin?

    So let me get this straight these bodies were not the bodies that the "zealous" irregular no actually mercenaries where claiming yesterday were just dead people put in the plane to make it look like a large scale disaster---or do you want the link to that mercenary tweet and pictures?

    If you are going to get your stories correct at least review the tweets and Facebook entries your "zealous" mercenaries put on the web.

    By the way comrade mirhond---do you know what the difference is between a Islamic jihadi and a proRussian mercenary?

    A jihadi knows to keep off his cell---seems your guys cannot stop talking---remember---no you cannot remember as it was before your birth--old Russian saying---the walls have ears or better even the electrical outlets have ears--remember those old sayings mirhond.

    It seems they like to hear their on voices in the global web or better yet they are just lonely because they are slowly being surrounded and the grand master Putin will be cutting them off from resupplies in the backlash of their stupidity.

    come on mirhond accept it---you all just shot down the wrong plane and we all know that accepting responsibility is the fist step in the grieving process for the executed 298 right mirhond?.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-19-2014 at 03:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.
    Anyone who has worked with the Patriot systems in the last few years as well as the Iron Dome knows the capability of US radar systems as well as the overhead and early warning aircraft that have been up.

    First they would have "seen" the launch blast, then they would have tracked the flight all the while backtracking it to it's initial launch site, then categorized the missile type all in a matter of seconds.

    Then betting the early warning aircraft that were up backtracked any ground vehicular movements and depending on sensors aboard could have identified the ground vehicle type and direction of movement.

    Confirming all of this would haven been the overhead capability---so in my estimate the US is sitting on the information and waiting to see if Putin steps up and takes responsibility as the main supporter of the Russian mercenaries.

    And on top of this we have the much aligned NSA capabilities that would tie in at a latter analysis stage.

    That would have given Obama the ammunition to say what he was "alluding" to when he signaled Putin to come clean and do the right thing.

    What in my opinion was missing was verifiable prove of the BUK in the hands of the mercenaries---that came in last night via social media and a geolocation fix. Because of the ISR "stuff" does not give one eyes on the target with a photo or video.

    If Putin does not get untracked and allow the recovery process and crash analysis to continue in a more standardized western fashion I really do believe Obama is sitting Putin up to tell the entire world the true story--IMO he is trying to give Putin a way forward because if you notice when Putin is pushed even if he is wrong he tends to lash out.

    My personal concern is that he did lash out three times now---first the BM 21 attack from inside Russian territory which in itself is a act of war, the long range Mig29 shot down again from Russian soil and now the airliner.

    I personally do not think he is in full control as I had said from the beginning Russian decision making is balanced around four groups, 1) the military, 2) the security services, the oligarchs and Russian gangs covered over by the Russian Orthodox Church.

    But we need to ask mirhond who is the Russian expert or at least he thinks he is.

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    Dutch banks said Saturday they were taking "preventative measures" after reports of credit cards being looted from the Ukrainian crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, where 192 Dutch citizens died.

    "International media report that victims' bank cards have been stolen," the Dutch Banking Association said in a statement

    "Banks are taking preventative measures as necessary," it said, adding that any losses suffered by relatives of the dead would be paid back.
    http://news.yahoo.com/dutch-banks-ac...155839417.html

    Rebels are good Christians, did somebody say?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    Weather.
    Why it wasn't driven South, as it does after 17.07?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I gave you the source, the time and the article i
    Actually I give you a source in Russian, if you understand what term "source" means.

    So let me get this straight these bodies were not the bodies that the "zealous" irregular no actually mercenaries where claiming yesterday were just dead people put in the plane to make it look like a large scale disaster---or do you want the link to that mercenary tweet and pictures?
    Wow, two lines of unrestricted stream of consciousness, without any punctuation marks - it overwhelms my inferior English, but I do want the links you mentioned, I believe it will help me to get what you mean. Everything else in your post is irrelevant to the subject.

    Quote Originally Posted by WGEwald View Post
    http://news.yahoo.com/dutch-banks-ac...155839417.html

    Rebels are good Christians, did somebody say?
    I said this. What I've said doesn't contradict to facts - looters may be good Christians, they loot corpses and then bury them according to the ritual.
    Last edited by mirhond; 07-19-2014 at 07:34 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I have been following this thread from the beginning and must admit to have enjoyed the cut and thrust as it has developed over the months ...
    What you call "cut and thrust" is due to some defending the indefensible, such as excusing lifting credit cards off of dead bodies.

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