Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus--they are still trying to grab news cycles with the Ukrainians--- they know something is being hidden in the ATC argument. Heck it could have simply been---I am taking a break and they do not understand the word break and what it means.


Interfax from today---will see if RIA goes deeper on the comment in the next couple of hours.

12:54 Retired Russian general believes Ukraine hiding key data concerning Malaysia Airlines plane crash

Wonder how much he got paid for the comment much as mirhond gets paid for his comments.

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---this came up on a Ukrainian blog I watch as the writer was a former Ukrainian officer who had served in Iraq.

Interesting comment about the height of the SU25s when hit which is above normal MANPAD ranges.

The bad news:

1. Two ATO forces’ airplanes were shot down today–the fighter jets were coming back to a base after successfully completing a special mission. There is currently no information about the fate of the pilots yet–let’s hope that they are alive.

But it is known that the jets were shot down at an altitude of 5200 meters [17,060 ft]. Man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) do not shoot at this height, including the latest Russian 9K333 “Verba,” which had previously been seen in the possession of the insurgents.

Rashisty [Russian fascists] just bend over backwards to prove that the downed “Boeing” is their handiwork. Rather than go into hiding after the disaster, like cockroaches into their cracks, they demonstrate in every way that they bring down everything they see in the Donbas sky, and at any altitude at that.


Reference the Verba MANPAD:

http://www.armamentresearch.com/9k33...sian-military/

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---there was over on Ukraine@war a tweet supposedly from a former Russian AF type who stated and then gave a link that the Buk radar screens when using the tactical onboard radar cannot see the difference between a military and civilian aircraft which means in theory it would not see even a Russian military IFF.

Sorry in Russian:

http://esquire.ru/mh17

[Ulenspiegel]

JMA--you bring up an interesting point by pointing to bloggers---

This today from Interfax proves your point---

Moscow - Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov has said that U.S. intelligence officials have not presented a single piece of evidence capable of proving that militiamen in eastern Ukraine could have been involved in the July 17 crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.

In addition to the US intel briefing they should have released every swinging photo analysis that kaur linked to as part and parcel of the briefing and simply said we concur---the photos would have been picked up by the global news cycle and then you would not have this Russian comment today.

That was indeed minor tactical mistake.

Yesterday I linked to an interview with a Ukrainian irregular commander who clearly stated another group had the Buk ---and signaled to a degree buyers remorse in the whole issue.

Why that was not splashed across the media linking again to the voice intercepts, irregular fighter interviews at the crash site and this article is beyond me.

It is as if the West does not want to rock the boat and it flies in the face of common decency to those killed---it does not confront who was behind it when the info is there in ones face.

Sorry, a regular investigation will very likely prove where the missiles were launched and who operated them. Why now this haste which could spoil the affair.

A well timed sequence of actions hurts but still offers Putin the opportunity to choose the lesser of two evils. He can not escape. Economic sanctions do not depmend on fast decisions.


What astounds me is the argument by the EU that it will damage their economies and business----there was yesterday an editorial comment by a leading Berlin newspaper pushing for some sort of action.

Sorry, of course sanctions will damage the economies of all involved countries that is trivial. Here again, one should first understand where the weak points of Putin are then act, this we-have-to-d -NOW-something argument is stupid. BTW the focus on Germany is nice, however, UK is the more important player here.

Depending on how one calculates the Russia German yearly business exchange it is only at the most 4% of their total GDP and they pointed out it is simple as an exporting country to find other outlets other than Russia for products---and about natural gas---first it is overcharged as Gasprom is in fact a total 1930 monopoly based on anyones definition and the EU is getting ready to charge exactly that and demand 10% duties on their yearly profits back to 2009.

Around 3% of German exports go to Russia, 8% of exported machinery. Compared to 2012 we have already > 20% less exports to Russia.

The Gasporm argument is nonsense, the gas price is already in most cases the pegged to the NG spot price and is not longer pegged to the oilprice. The developement was not that pretty for Gazprom the last years. But there is no short-term fix.


Secondly there is enough world wide supplies just a tad more expensive but in the end worth the shift.

The available LNG volumes are smaller than the imports from Russia, therefore a higher energy efficiency is the much better solution in combination with more LNG imports, but these take time. A 2% reduction of imports would give within a decade many options.

Interesting how the German SPD is attempting to protect Putin.

Sorry, the Steinmeier statement, the guy is SPD, was more than clear. You have a strange perception. :-)

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[OUTLAW 09]

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Ulenspiegel---check the editorial from the TagesSpiegel yesterdays front page--they will differ with you on the % of GDP and will differ with you on the SPD stance.

Secondly---here is an interesting open source investigation that has been completed by bloggers and a UK journalist which having seen their previous work virtually pinpoints the actual Buk launch site.

The EU seems to drag their feet daily and yet a group of bloggers and one journalist is what faster and or slower than the combined intel agencies of the EU/US---come on it cannot be that hard if civilians can do it for no money.

Blair got it right---EU stop looking at the US and simply act like adults and act against someone who shouted fire in a theater but set the fire himself. The EU talks about values and yet seems to not care about defending those same values when challenged in this way by Russia. Russia wants simply two tings--to isolate the EU from the US and to defeat the influence of NATO and that can be clearly seen in his moves. Once the EU is isolated then he wants to split the EU using the new EU members such as Bulgaria and Romania and to a degree Hungary, Slovenia and the Czech Republic to weaken the EU---old former communist countries die really hard in their thinking towards Russia.

If one wants to impress Putin then have the EU stop the entire South Stream and charge Gasprom as a monopolist which they are even under German cartel laws--break the end to end control of Gasprom on the pipelines, allow third party gas shipments/suppliers and deregulate who can say what goes and how much goes into the Gasprom lines and finally implement the EU cartel fines on Gasprom and the EU will get Putin's attention believe me. AND break the Gasprom contracts that state a country/company can be fined and they are regularly fined for not accepting the contract stated amounts of gas ie such has the Ukrainians get hit with every month.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

[Biggus]

Biggus--they are still trying to grab news cycles with the Ukrainians--- they know something is being hidden in the ATC argument. Heck it could have simply been---I am taking a break and they do not understand the word break and what it means.

There might have been an imperfect use of language. Remember MH370 and the confusion generated when there was an informal exchange between the pilot and the ATC?

Considering (as I understand) the missile hit MH17 just after (or possibly during) the handoff from Ukrainian control to Russian, there might be something we don't know in regards to the conversation between the Ukrainian controller and the aircrew.

Biggus---this came up on a Ukrainian blog I watch as the writer was a former Ukrainian officer who had served in Iraq.

Interesting comment about the height of the SU25s when hit which is above normal MANPAD ranges.

The Ukrainian air force is evidently evaluating the MANPAD threat as greater than the Buk/S-300/whatever-else threat is. I can't say I blame them, but I suspect there will be some reevaluations as time drags on. I suppose my questions before about support and resupply are being answered.

Biggus---there was over on Ukraine@war a tweet supposedly from a former Russian AF type who stated and then gave a link that the Buk radar screens when using the tactical onboard radar cannot see the difference between a military and civilian aircraft which means in theory it would not see even a Russian military IFF.

Yes, I learned that from a former Polish Buk operator awhile ago. I don't believe the surveillance radar normally used as part of a full battalion is able to differentiate between a civillian and an enemy aircraft either. I'd expect every other system in Russia to be the same, at least with the legacy Soviet developments. Which I suppose is fair enough: You don't want to let a B-1 with a civillian transponder squawking normal civillian codes if the 'capitalist pig-dogs in the West' mount a surprise attack.

[OUTLAW 09]

There might have been an imperfect use of language. Remember MH370 and the confusion generated when there was an informal exchange between the pilot and the ATC?

Considering (as I understand) the missile hit MH17 just after (or possibly during) the handoff from Ukrainian control to Russian, there might be something we don't know in regards to the conversation between the Ukrainian controller and the aircrew.



The Ukrainian air force is evidently evaluating the MANPAD threat as greater than the Buk/S-300/whatever-else threat is. I can't say I blame them, but I suspect there will be some reevaluations as time drags on. I suppose my questions before about support and resupply are being answered.



Yes, I learned that from a former Polish Buk operator awhile ago. I don't believe the surveillance radar normally used as part of a full battalion is able to differentiate between a civillian and an enemy aircraft either. I'd expect every other system in Russia to be the same, at least with the legacy Soviet developments. Which I suppose is fair enough: You don't want to let a B-1 with a civillian transponder squawking normal civillian codes if the 'capitalist pig-dogs in the West' mount a surprise attack.

Biggus---to comments;

1. initially immediately after the downing there was a short comment floating out there that the Ukrainians and the Russians in both ATCs talked after not getting the plane up on radio and after it disappeared from radar--here is the kicker they talked about the possibility of a missile and both sides evidently agreed it was a missile.

Now if that is correct as most have turned out to be---- startled that the Russians are pushing for it--you have to assumed they recorded it as well.

2. if you go through the link yesterday on the Dontesk irregular who admitted another group had one Buk he used an unusual explanation that actually when one thinks about makes sense--BUT today he argued he never made the video but it was in fact recorded and exists regardless of what he is now saying.

He mentioned that the irregulars in the area had been attacked a number of times in the area by aircraft over the last week before the downing---thus the need to have air protection but he did not know that the Buk was there.

In the link I just posted about the alleged actual launch site the UK press reporter pointed out in the distance probably about 10-15 kms away from the launch site a hill that he said had been repeatedly attacked over the last week---from where he stood on the assumed launch site it was straight line distance open and clear in the middle of a grain field.

So in fact the Donetsk irregular said something of interest as it appears the S11 was positioned to provide air protection and the airliner came over the hill and straight at the fire position just as a military plane would do.

Drip drip drip---the Russians can not stop it.

3. In another posted online tweet the open source bloggers found was a tweet of another loaded Buk carrying a missile with a red painted warhead---any idea why red vs. the other white tipped missiles and why it seems to be always the right one when looking from the rear of the vehicle?

[Biggus]

3. In another posted online tweet the open source bloggers found was a tweet of another loaded Buk carrying a missile with a red painted warhead---any idea why red vs. the other white tipped missiles and why it seems to be always the right one when looking from the rear of the vehicle?

I haven't found anything about why some have red noses. Unlikely to be a training variant because most launchers I see with red tips have more than one. Different guidance system is my best guess. Probably not dramatically different from the more typical 9M38.

Or the factory might have run out of white paint. I consider this unlikely.

[OUTLAW 09]

I haven't found anything about why some have red noses. Unlikely to be a training variant because most launchers I see with red tips have more than one. Different guidance system is my best guess. Probably not dramatically different from the more typical 9M38.

Or the factory might have run out of white paint. I consider this unlikely.

Biggus--interesting as the Patriots have multiple use packages as well.

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---another Russian lanced theory behind the shot down--this is the 15th reason given since the downing. One has to give them credit for the massive thought process behind the stories or maybe not.

They managed as well to intertwine even the SU2 theory into this as well.

But they did mention something of the capability at the end---meaning if multiple targets are seen it takes the largest target---interesting as that is a gap issue in the selection process. Big vs threat.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, July 25 (RIA Novosti) – A system mix up during a Ukrainian air defense units’ rocket launch exercise could be the cause of the Malaysia Airlines crash in southeast Ukraine, a source from one of the Ukrainian defense departments told RIA Novosti.

“On July 17 the commanding officer of 156th Anti-Aircraft Regiment was instructed to conduct a training exercise of ground troops stationed near Donetsk, which involved deploying the troops, and carrying out a routine tracking and destroying of targets with the Buk-M1 missile,” the source said.

The source added that the actual launch of the rockets was not intended.

Two Sukhoi Su-25 combat aircraft on a reconnaissance mission participated in the exercise. It is likely at some point, the routes of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 and a Su-25 jet overlapped. Despite flying at different levels, they became a single dot on the radar of the missile system. Of the two, the system automatically chose a larger target.

[Firn]

A podcast about OSINT and MH17, which I also posted in the other relevant thread.

[Biggus]

“On July 17 the commanding officer of 156th Anti-Aircraft Regiment was instructed to conduct a training exercise of ground troops stationed near Donetsk, which involved deploying the troops, and carrying out a routine tracking and destroying of targets with the Buk-M1 missile,” the source said.

The source added that the actual launch of the rockets was not intended.

Two Sukhoi Su-25 combat aircraft on a reconnaissance mission participated in the exercise. It is likely at some point, the routes of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 and a Su-25 jet overlapped. Despite flying at different levels, they became a single dot on the radar of the missile system. Of the two, the system automatically chose a larger target.

Bizarre.

So an AA regiment presumably including at least one battalion-sized Buk unit, with multiple surveillance and fire control radars, having full knowledge of civillian traffic, attempted to use two friendly tactical aircraft for an exercise over an active battlefield? Not to mention reasonably large numbers of high quality electro-optical sensors that would be able to see exactly what was being tracked.

Aside from that, if I was a Su25 driver, I'd be rather unhappy with having my RWR start going off over a place where I'm likely to be shot at.

I'm not used to Russian propoganda insulting our intellects by giving us such obvious guff, they're normally much more competent.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears Russia is concerned as to what is on the flight recorders that were passed to the UK for analysis which some say will be released this weekend as it was felt they were in good condition and it would take about two days for the first analysis.

This information was lanced today by Interfax to arouses suspicions of "someone tampering" with the recorders---might be those "suspicious" acting Spanish speaking ATC guys in the Ukrainian ATC which Russia made remarks about yesterday in their press releases.

Interfax from today:
15:43 IAC denies unauthorized access to Malaysian plane flight recorders

[OUTLAW 09]

Bizarre.

So an AA regiment presumably including at least one battalion-sized Buk unit, with multiple surveillance and fire control radars, having full knowledge of civillian traffic, attempted to use two friendly tactical aircraft for an exercise over an active battlefield? Not to mention reasonably large numbers of high quality electro-optical sensors that would be able to see exactly what was being tracked.

Aside from that, if I was a Su25 driver, I'd be rather unhappy with having my RWR start going off over a place where I'm likely to be shot at.

I'm not used to Russian propoganda insulting our intellects by giving us such obvious guff, they're normally much more competent.

Biggus---truly believe their are in panic mode and do not know how to recover the narrative in their information war.

Someone in Moscow is really nervous about this is all I can say.

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---first it was an Ukrainian AD training exercise gone wrong and this this via Interfax this evening.

Man their information war world is upside down.

Interfax this evening:

19:09 Negligence, poor training of Ukrainian air defense units may have led to MH17 tragedy - Russian general

Russia is starting to see just why the downing narrative has derailed their information war in the following link---and it explains to a degree why they are all over the map.

But again it is one of those we "poor" Russians (woe is us kind of thing) are being beaten up on by the US media---which I admit was losing in the information war fight.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20140725/1...th-Russia.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---they just do not give up---new theory against the Ukrainians--now it is getting interesting.

In the Reuters interview where they have also the audio to the interview they had with a Ukrainian irregular commander who was an ex Alpha commander who admitted in the interview that another group had a Buk and that the Ukrainians knew about it and had tried to bomb it.

But then after the interview hit the global media and someone in Moscow stepped on his head he tried to say the in interview he did not state that about the missile being there, but Reuters replayed the audio to prove he was trying to flip flop on his new statements that there was none in the area--his new statement was that in "theory" there could have been a Buk in the area.

Now Moscow is using that interview to point out that since the Ukraine knew about the Buk being there they should have closed the airspace.

Moscow evidently has not seen this particular irregular commander flip flop on his statement and that he was talking in "theory" of the existence of a Buk and just charged ahead.

This is a perfect example of how the right and left hands are not talking and the panic is there to be seen.

Now this story flies in the face of all the past stated theories that it was the Ukrainian Buk that shot down the plane, or an Ukrainian Ad exercise or the SU25 or the Spanish ATC or the poor quality of the Ukrainian AD units and on and on.

Moscow, July 25 (RIA Novosti) - If the Ukrainian military were aware about the possible use of Buk missiles in the southeast of the country, they should have informed the crews flying over the territory, the head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) Alexandr Neradko said Friday.

“If we assume that the Ukrainian Armed Forces knew about the possible use of surface-to-air anti-aircraft Buk missiles, they should have facilitated the work of appropriate radar stations, the way it was done by the Russian air Forces,” he said.

[OUTLAW 09]

The German der Spiegel is reporting that NBC has gotten information that one of the voices on the first released voice intercepts was a Cossack with really really close ties to Moscow.

He is currently also in eastern Ukraine with a Cossack unit.

Cossak name: Nikolai Kosizyn--he was the one who stated in the intercept after learning it was a Malaysian airliner--said ---"then they are all spies"

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/a...d_4017428.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---truly believe their are in panic mode and do not know how to recover the narrative in their information war.

Someone in Moscow is really nervous about this is all I can say.

It appears they have found the reason for their failures right now in their information war--always blaming others.

http://en.ria.ru/authors/20140725/19...e-Bullied.html

[OUTLAW 09]

More OSINT on the items that were stolen from the dead bodies of the downed plane I guess we would need comrade mirhonds explanation of this proRussian behavior.

Young proRussian woman modeling cosmetics taken from the crash site. She admitted that she got it from a looter friend.


http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...amsterdam.html

[kaur]

7/24/2014
Is Putin Responsible For MH17? Five Questions For Investigators On Russian Culpability

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrode...n-culpability/