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Thread: Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

  1. #21
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    Seems like the DNR leaders cannot get their stories correct.


    By RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service

    July 17, 2014
    Shortly before reports surfaced that a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 had crashed in eastern Ukraine, a social media site purported to belong to a separatist leader claimed that insurgents had shot down an aircraft.

    In a post on VKontakte, Russia's largest social media site, which has since been taken down, separatist leader Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, wrote: "In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

    The AN-26 is a Soviet-built twin-engine transport plane used by the Ukrainian military. Torez is a small city of 80,000 located some 40 kilometers east of Donetsk. Included in the post were two videos that showed a rising plume of black smoke in the distance.

    The claim was posted at 5:50 pm Moscow time, shortly before reports surfaced that the Malaysian civilian aircraft, on a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, had crashed in eastern Ukraine in the same area near the Russian border.

    A Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser, Anton Herashchenko, claimed the plane had been shot down by a ground-to-air missile.

    Andrei Purgin, the self-styled first vice premier of the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic, told Interfax the separatists do not have weapons that could shoot down a plane flying at an altitude of 10,000 meters.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    Found this:


    MANPADS are a problem, but they're spitballs in comparison to an SA11 or SA17.

    My current impression is that it was thought to be a Ukrainian transport, rebels fired a missile, and MH17 was shot down. I would have thought that two-and-a-half weeks after a rebel takeover of a SAM complex, commercial aviation would have stayed well out of the area, but apparently my assumption was incorrect.

    The Ukrainians have not stationed SAMS anywhere in the area due to the lack of rebel aircraft---even in the face of recent Russian air inclusions into the Ukraine they still have not moved any of their mobile units which the BUK is.

    The Ukrainians do have the last time I checked the SAM 6s and the BUKs but have never activated their sites and I think the BUKs are stationed more in the Kyiv and western regions as it has a long range.

    So you are stating the SU 25 story released by the rebels is a smoke screen--there has been an armored convoy on the move reported today heading towards the Russian border which had a BUK system within it all just after the global reporting on the possible shot down started.

    There is also some indications that the BUK was actually under Russian control and the firing commands came from the Russian side of the border---Ukraine has evidently intercepted voice commands.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 08:41 PM.

  3. #23
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    IIRC the Ukrainians did move SAM towards the Russian border to be prepared against Russian strikes, but I don't have the source ready. In any case the airplane cam from Amsterdam, flying from Poland and wester Ukraine in the international corridor which was not officially closed.

    It is actually pretty likely that the complex air-defence systems, especially if delivered by the Russians, supporting the seperatists are operated by Russian citziens and are tied through some channels into the Russian air defence network and Russian intelligence. If this is the case I'm quite curious how much of that traffic was intercepted, geo-located and decrypted by the Ukrainians and others. If we consider the relative short time those sophisticated have been stationed in seperatist areas a lot of the communications might have been indeed wireless Of course only selected snippets,if at all, will be made public.

    Of course for now we have only strong probabilies which points at Russian forces, in a wide sense, but one should not exclude other paths.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-17-2014 at 08:53 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    FSB guy Girkin says that they shot down An 26.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/StateOfUk...212480/photo/1

    29.06 DPR claims that they got BUK.

    http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1287030
    http://i.imgur.com/7kAnlaS.png

    This source claims that BUK was in Sneznoe today.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/evromdn/s...20988730003456

    This news says that Ukrainian air force was attacking rebels in Snezhnoe 15.07.

    http://rusvesna.su/news/1405427799

    Rebels shot down that day Su 25

    http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1136996/

    Ukrainians first said that Russian forces are quilty, but rebels said they did it with Buk.

    http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/7/17/696045.html
    kaur---appears that the rebels cannot get their stories straight.

    19:35
    LEADERSHIP OF SELF-PROCLAIMED DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN MALAYSIAN PLANE CRASH IN UKRAINE - DPR SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBER

    19:34
    DPR SAYS MILITIA DOES NOT HAVE ARMS, WHICH COULD BRING DOWN BOEING AT 10,000-METER HEIGHT - DPR FIRST DEPUTY PM

  5. #25
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    Outlaw, this source in Russian talks about 2 Buk complexes. One was in Snezhnoje and other was seen in Torez.

    http://vesti.ua/donbass/61551-prinad...sja-v-snezhnom

    Lonely Bukon the way in Snezhnoje.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MM_RVp2NdmA

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    IIRC the Ukrainians did move SAM towards the Russian border to be prepared against Russian strikes, but I don't have the source ready. In any case the airplane cam from Amsterdam, flying from Poland and wester Ukraine in the international corridor which was not officially closed.

    It is actually pretty likely that the complex air-defence systems, especially if delivered by the Russians, supporting the seperatists are operated by Russian citziens and are tied through some channels into the Russian air defence network and Russian intelligence. If this is the case I'm quite curious how much of that traffic was intercepted, geo-located and decrypted by the Ukrainians and others. If we consider the relative short time those sophisticated have been stationed in seperatist areas a lot of the communications might have been indeed wireless Of course only selected snippets,if at all, will be made public.

    Firn---there is a second possibility---in the reported armored convoy moving towards Russia was a BUK---there was just the single armored vehicle mentioned.

    It could be that they have just the missile carrier and not the related radars that are needed for accurate control---maybe since they are not the best and greatest trained AD types their fired the missile thinking that it was similar to a MANPAD and just lobed it up at what they thought was the AN 26 flying the same general route. The BUK is designed to puncture holes in the aircraft and not to destroy it and it appears the plane came down in initially relatively intact when it hit the ground and exploded.

    Heck there are now rumors coming out of Donetsk Republic reps that the Ukrainians were trying to shoot down Putin's plane as he returned from Brazil---but he was already in Moscow.

    They are having a really tough time putting distance to their earlier social media victory claims of a shot down of a AN26.

  7. #27
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    Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Outlaw, this source in Russian talks about 2 Buk complexes. One was in Snezhnoje and other was seen in Torez.

    http://vesti.ua/donbass/61551-prinad...sja-v-snezhnom

    Lonely Bukon the way in Snezhnoje.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MM_RVp2NdmA
    There was talk that a Ukrainian AD site was taken over but I never did seen where that was.

    Secondly the armored convoy spotted was coming out of Snezhnoje and contained a least one BUK weapons carrier---but some of the reports just mentioned the missiles but no related radar carriers which are needed to control the firings.

  9. #29
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    kaur---

    Yuriy Butusov
    17.07.2014, 20:46
    Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

    A high-ranking official, a source of Censor.Net with the ‘Yug’ [South] operational command provided commentary on the circumstances surrounding the crash of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing near Torez [Donetsk oblast]:

    “Ukrainian aviation made no flights over Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts on July 17. Ukraine can easily prove complete lack of our [Ukrainian] aircraft in the sky–the last flight was made on the evening of July 16, a day before the Boeing tragedy. The nearest positions of Ukrainian troops are located 50 km away from the crash site. We do not control the territory above which the Boeing was destroyed.

    “We have no long-range anti-aircraft weapons in the ATO [anti-terrorist operation] area. The military anti-aircraft facilities our units are equipped with – Shilka and – have a range of up to 5 km. Therefore, we can state with utmost responsibility that Ukraine is not involved in the Boeing crash, and we can prove that easily.

    “The plane was destroyed by a Russian ‘BUK’ surface-to-air missile system, operated by Russian military specialists. On July 14 and 16, Ukrainian IL-76 transport planes passed near the route taken by the Malaysian Airlines plane, but at lower altitudes–6,000 to 7,000 meters. Evidently, the Russian military mistook the Boeing for our [Ukrainian] transport, and ignored its altitude and the fact that the liner was following an international air corridor.

    “We have no doubts that any international commission will quickly establish all circumstances that will confirm the above information, and help shed light on this act of international terrorism committed by Russia.”

  10. #30
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    Outlaw, just listen to the tape and that's it. This is the "no comments" moment.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY
    kaur---wonder where mirhond these days.

    The power of social media---you have to love it if you are an intelligence collection type.

    They will argue the Ukrainians faked their voices or it was the people living on the moon that did it.

    Interesting will be what will Putin do now as he does not have his Russian nationalist fire brands under any kind of control and he is responsible for turning them loose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Outlaw, just listen to the tape and that's it. This is the "no comments" moment.
    kaur--maybe we should ask mirhond for his "comments" really do miss him in this event as it flies in the face of everything he has argued.

  13. #33
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    kaur---The German der Spiegel is indicating that the DRP claimed on their own Twitter page today they had captured a BUK along with a photo of the system.

    Photo was then it was taken down within hours. Is there anything indicating what Ukrainian AD site was raided in the last few weeks?

    Auf der Twitterseite der "Volksrepublik Donezk", also der Separatisten, wurde am Donnerstag ein Bild des "Buk"-Raketensystems zur Flugzeugabwehr verffentlicht. Die Milizen hatten es von der ukrainischen Armee erbeutet. Wenig spter verschwand das Bild von der Seite.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY
    If there will be satellite imagery of the missile launch from separatist controlled areas - it will be sledgehammer argument, what you post here is probably fake, as usual.
    I give 60% a priori probability that separatists did it (they have Buks, probably crews and desire to shot down anything flying around) and 40% that ukropians did it by mistake.

    upd. there is a good explanation how it happened: In the shadow of recent ####ups in the border bottle-neck and AN-26 military transport shot down previously, Ukrainian command desided to test adversary's air defences by sending civilian plane to fly over combat zone as a bait while military transport IL-76 is trying to sneak into on the lower altitude - brilliant move.
    Last edited by mirhond; 07-17-2014 at 10:15 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    kaur--- Strelkow is having a hard time now with his twitter statements---he finally admitted that his first statements were correct and then he stated that he had been mislead by civilians in the area of the crash BUT then he posted that the "shot down was a mistake.

    Maybe he is concerned that the voice intercepts are now getting into the public domain.

    Reports are that the rebels are not allowing crash rescue teams and crash investigators into the crash site area.

    From focus today:
    Allerdings spricht er in seinem Posting von einer AN-26, einem von der ukrainischen Armee genutzten Transportflugzeugtyp. Mglicherweise haben also Separatisten die Maschine der Malaysian Airlines abgeschossen, ohne zu wissen, dass es sich um ein ziviles Passagierflugzeug handelte. Strelkow, der die Authentizitt des Beitrags mittlerweile besttigt hat, schob seine Ausfhrungen spter auf ein Missverstndnis. Er habe falsche Informationen von der rtlichen Bevlkerung erhalten.

    Strelkow selbst postete nach Informationen von FOCUS-Korrespondent Boris Reitschuster aber auch, der Abschuss sei "ein Fehler" gewesen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    If there will be satellite imagery of the missile launch from separatist controlled areas - it will be sledgehammer argument, what you post here is probably fake, as usual.
    I give 60% a priori probability that separatists did it (they have Buks, probably crews and desire to shot down anything flying around) and 40% that ukropians did it by mistake.
    hello comrade Russian expert mirhond---I in fact predicted you would state the recordings are fakes---you never seem to change do you and yet you call yourself a Russian expert.

    So you do believe the Russian Today statements from today that the Ukrainians wanted to shot own by "accident" Putin's plane as he returned from Brazil---but he was already in Moscow talking to Obama so that fallacy turned out to be a fallacy or better yet a blatant falsehood of many they have published.

    You did notice that Life News first reported both the AN26 shot down as well as the crash.

    So comrade Russian expert mirhond---you even gave 40% fault to the Ukrainians and what fallacy did you contribute that to inside that fallacy of your FSB mind?

    I cannot believe you are so predictable with the fake argument---the FSB is slipping these days with who they hire.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2014 at 10:11 PM.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    If there will be satellite imagery of the missile launch from separatist controlled areas - it will be sledgehammer argument, what you post here is probably fake, as usual.
    I give 60% a priori probability that separatists did it (they have Buks, probably crews and desire to shot down anything flying around) and 40% that ukropians did it by mistake.
    hello comrade Russian expert mirhond--when will you finally admit to being a FSB officer which in fact you are.

    One thing this event shows is that you are definitely not a Russian expert.

  18. #38
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    About Strelkov and DPR sites.

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europ...owning-of-MH17

    Russian version based on anonymous official sources. Assasins tried to shoot down Putins plane.

    http://www.newsru.com/russia/17jul2014/version.html

    Ps. mirhond, have you studied this source http://www.idinahui.net

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    hello comrade Russian expert mirhond---at least in your previous statement you gave at least a 60% fault to the separatists.

    so if in your own mind 60% is high then why did they send the black boxes to Moscow when they should have gone to Boeing and Malaysian Airlines the owners and builders of the aircraft---that is the standard international process for air crashes regardless of where they occur.

    The “black box” from the airplane traveled to Moscow “for investigation” Russian radio Kommersant FM reported.

    so comrade Russian expert you really expect a "honest" statement coming out of all places Moscow as to what is on the tapes?---come on comrade mirhond even that exceeds all your previous fallacies.

    one criminal just protecting another criminal would you Russian expert say?

  20. #40
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    well comrade Russian expert mirhond you finally bunked even yourself with all your talk about fallacies---it appears that your 60% separatist fault is actually 100% and the intercepts are not fakes by the way.

    so now since you have been proven as a fake and FSB officer maybe you should not be writing much in the future as your fallacies have all turned out to be fakes as well.

    so is it true comrade Russian expert the Malaysian airliner was shot down because it was "carrying spies" come on mirhond you even have to admit that your nationalists are out of control but then they are Russians right so therefore you are just as responsible as you have been supporting them here all the time.

    Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was allegedly shot down by a group of Russian-backed Cossack militants near the village of Chornukhine, Luhansk Oblast, some 80 kilometers north-west of Donetsk, according to recordings of intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence officers and members of terrorist groups, released by the country’s security agency (SBU).

    One phone call apparently was made at 4:40 p.m. Kyiv time, or 20 minutes after the plane crash, by Igor Bezler, who the SBU says is a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. He reports to a person identified by Ukraine’s SBU as a colonel in the main intelligence department of the general headquarters of the armed forces of the Russian Federation Vasili Geranin regarding the shot down plane, which is about to be examined by the militants.

    The second intercepted conversation released by the Security Service of Ukraine was apparently between militants nicknamed “Major” and “Greek” immediately upon inspection of the crash site.

    “It’s 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft,” Major is recorded as saying, as he admitted to seeing no weapons on site. “Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.”

    In the third part of conversation Cossack commander Nikolay Kozitsin talking to an unidentified militant cynically suggests that the Malaysia Airlines airplane could've been carrying spies, as, otherwise, it would have no business flying in that area.

    Read the full transcript of an intercepted phone call below:

    Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).

    Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?

    IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.

    VG: How many minutes ago?

    IB: About 30 minutes ago.

    SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.

    “Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.

    “Grek”: Yes, Major.

    "Major": The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.

    “Greek”: Well, what do you have there?

    “Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.

    “Greek”: Are many people there?

    “Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).

    “Greek”: What kind of aircraft?

    “Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.

    “Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?

    “Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.

    “Greek”: Are there documents?

    “Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.

    Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.

    They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?

    Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on.

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