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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    US can actually issue sanctions against Putin's wealth estimated in the billions, can issue sanctions against Gasprom---meaning no access to US capital markets, can cut Gasproms access to money movements via NYC, and can limit 90 day lines of credit without asking Europe.
    Global capital markets are called "global" for a reason. Lines of credit are available in plenty of places, and Gazprom doesn't do all that much business with the US. US-only sanctions will be a minor issue at most, and are not going to change anyone's behavior. The US simply doesn't dominate the global financial landscape in the way it once did. Overall that's a good thing for the global economy, but it does reduce US leverage, particularly over Russia, where economic linkages are not that strong.

    I think you're also underestimating the extent to which the US needs the Europeans in this as equal partners. If the US looks inclined to go it alone, many in Europe will be inclined to fold up the tents and let the US do it. Forcing Europe to lead in regional affairs is very much a legitimate goal for the US, just as forcing Japan to step up in Asia is a major goal there. If the US jumps out in front, will the other partners do their share? Not bloody likely.

    The US cannot police the world alone, and allies need to accept that, step up, and do their share, even if that means the US has to simply refuse to go unilateral. Forcing regional allies to take an equal part in managing affairs in their areas is a goal as important as anything specifically related to the Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    US can release oil out of the national reserves and rock the current sour oil markets which are at 95 USD down under the 90 range ---Russia recently stated they need 104 per barrel.
    That's not going to work for long enough to make a difference. Everyone in the oil market knows that the SPR is finite and needs to be replenished, and that when replenishment starts, the US will have to buy more than it consumes: demand will increase. That means a scramble to stock up in anticipation, and it means producers with financial reserves will cut back in order to sell their oil at the higher prices that will commence when the US has to replenish the reserves. The more the US releases, the faster the scramble will get, because the more the US releases, the sooner and more aggressively they will have to replenish.

    Even in the very unlikely event that the US on its own could depress oil prices far enough long enough to seriously hurt Russia, have you considered the collateral damage in other countries that depend on oil revenue? Think Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc...

    Trying to manipulate oil prices as a weapon is a lot more complicated in reality than it is in the minds (using the term loosely) of the blogosphere. That's why you don't see credible analysts proposing it.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-29-2014 at 01:06 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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