Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.
Because they desperately needed money, and efforts to support the price by cutting production had failed catastrophically. The cartel broke. Cartels often do when under stress.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
I think we all understand that this is not just "humanitarian aid", but...
Can the Russians bring in enough force in this convoy to change the momentum in the conflict? Outlaw estimated elsewhere that 500-600 individuals will be involved, but haven't the Russians already infiltrated much larger numbers? Is it a game changer, or a face saver?
Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?
Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.
Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-13-2014 at 12:38 AM.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.
upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.
Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 09:50 AM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
comrade mirhond---here is a report that your favorite Russian commander from the FSB/GRU is evidently seriously wounded by a Ukrainian Seal team.
so much for quality Russian mercenaries.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko?orig...70919530876928
mirhond---another report for you to mull over---titled Russian PM comments against Putin "hacked and or drunk"
East of Brussels @EastOfBrussels · 3h
#Russia's PM says he's ashamed of #Putin's government, resigns. Yes, hacked or Dmitry is really drunk #ukraine
See, what major channels? Russian? Because multiple EU, US, Japanese and Ukraine sources are saying different on their news channels.
In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28768746
Hardly so much has been confirmed, everyone is squabbling around it and way it's looking right now all those trucks might get passed off.But the BBC's Daniel Sandford in Moscow says that long discussions are continuing about whether the lorries will actually be allowed to enter.
Those trucks mostly mean, to me, Russia is disengaging. Putin gets to look like, hey I'm doing stuff. Within my means. Food and stuff. Will give him leeway when sending more. Keep himself kosher with the Russian population in the east for essentially 'abandoning them'. Because if he doesn't invade, and Ukraine finishes off the rebels, and they will unless Russia comes, they're not going to like him much anymore either.
I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/
excerpt:
The Kremlin, which has waged a massive disinformation campaign aimed at legitimizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, has employed so-called "troll armies" to invade online territories armed with pro-Moscow rhetoric.
A June article by Max Seddon of BuzzFeed reported the Kremlin was spending millions of dollars to pay English-speaking Russians to promote President Vladimir Putin and his policies in U.S. media like Fox News broadcasting and The Huffington Post and Politico news sites. Trolls are reportedly expected to manage multiple fake accounts and post on news articles 50 times a day, often with sentiments as simplistic as "Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak!"
In order to promote its narrative, the Kremlin has adopted a two-fisted strategy, unleashing its troll armies even as it tightens Internet restrictions at home. On August 1, Russia enacted controversial new legislation aimed at muzzling social media, the last bastion of the country's embattled opposition and a free flow of information about the war in Ukraine.
Anton Nosik, a popular Russian blogger and programmer who is sometimes referred to as the "father of the Russian Internet," says the Kremlin is falling back on a time-honored strategy in its propaganda war on Ukraine. But this time, he says, the stakes are higher than ever before. (BuzzFeed reports that at least one trolling company—Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg—is expected to spend more than $10 million in 2014 alone.)
"Comments were already serving as a well-financed Kremlin instrument of war against the opposition, even five years ago," he says. "So what's going on now is nothing new. But what's absolutely clear is that now they're spending more money on Ukraine than they ever spent against Alexei Navalny, or Ekho Moskvy, Kommersant, Gazeta.ru"—Russian media actors who have been targeted by the Kremlin in the past—"and all the rest."
Brant
Wargaming and Strategy Gaming at Armchair Dragoons
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“their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of ‘rights’… and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure.” Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers 1959
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I'd rather believe Poroshenko's Executive Office
Ukraine doesn't object to Russian participation in humanitarian mission to Lugansk, said Deputy Head of Executive Office Valeri Chalyi, 11 Aug.Украина не возражает против участия России в работе гуманитарной миссии в Луганск и область. Об этом заявил заместитель главы Администрации Президента Украины Валерий Чалый в эфире телеканала ICTV в понедельник, 11 августа.
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/340...yia-prezydenta
then Facebook minister Avakov who is well-known liar and clown.
Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 07:59 PM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the incident can be used as a basis for a conclusion, unless of course you've already reached the conclusion.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
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