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  1. #1
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?

    Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.
    You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  2. #2
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

    upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 09:50 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post




    Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

    upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.


    comrade mirhond---here is a report that your favorite Russian commander from the FSB/GRU is evidently seriously wounded by a Ukrainian Seal team.

    so much for quality Russian mercenaries.

    https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko?orig...70919530876928

  4. #4
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    mirhond---another report for you to mull over---titled Russian PM comments against Putin "hacked and or drunk"


    East of Brussels @EastOfBrussels · 3h

    #Russia's PM says he's ashamed of #Putin's government, resigns. Yes, hacked or Dmitry is really drunk #ukraine

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    It appears now from Russian sources that the second top Russian mercenary has been wounded---one now in each of the last two mercenary held towns.

    True story, fake story or the exit plan being put into play?

    Secondly---there have been a series of tweets suggesting that the drivers are from an elite armored unit and will remain inside the Ukraine and others will drive back--there have been multiple reports recently of a large number of tanks parked in the surrounding areas in the forests but they have no more mercenary crews for them.

    OSCE web site reports uniformed personnel w/no markings are crossing the border where their teams are reporting from.

    Wounding link Russian news source;

    http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1378586

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Photos and roses for GRU’s ‘spetsnaz’ casualties

    This FT article is behind a registration 'wall', which allows limited access:
    In an anonymous military classroom somewhere in Moscow, 12 portraits in identical tortoiseshell frames stand on a metal bench placed on a dais. In front of each picture is a bunch of six roses, red and pink. The dead.....were operatives of Russian special forces. All 12 died in Ukraine in recent weeks. Officially, they were all on holiday.

    It ends citing Nigel Inkster, of IISS, ex-SIS (MI6):
    It is about subversion, it is about espionage with limited use of deniable special forces and the use of deniable proxies...It is a war that is never really declared.

    Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f28913f6-1...#axzz3AMNKyZaz
    davidbfpo

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    Have not seen the confirmation geo tag on this photo posted today--but it appears that two Russian Buk command vehicles pulled up directly behind the supposedly "humanitarian aid convoy" parked now near the mercenary crossing points not controlled by the Ukraine.

    So much for the Putin statement that the "aid" delivery had been planned and approved by the ICRC who evidently is still awaiting the accurate load out details on each truck from Moscow---or maybe the ICRC just requested Buk air defense in case they were attacked by 'little green men" from Mars?

    Mars.https://twitter.com/courtneymoscow/s...264000/photo/1

    More Russia AD equipment (photos in the tweets) trailing behind the "humanitarian aid" convoy accompanied by two armed Russia copters.

    http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...he-move-again/

    That looks like a 9K22 Tunguska mounted to a Kamaz truck. It is an anti-aircraft weapon equipped with both missiles and 30mm guns. The missiles are capable of knocking out low-altitude aircraft flying at under 3,500 meters, though missile variants have a range up to 10 kilometers. and the guns could be used to target low-flying aircraft, incoming projectiles, or even ground forces. When used in combination with more advanced missile systems which have been spotted in the area, the 9k22 is a formidable addition to Russia's forces in the area.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2014 at 04:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    This FT article is behind a registration 'wall', which allows limited access:


    It ends citing Nigel Inkster, of IISS, ex-SIS (MI6):


    Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f28913f6-1...#axzz3AMNKyZaz
    David---interesting in that it confirms something I passed onto Dave Maxwell referencing the military reset of Ukrainian military doctrine focusing more on Ukrainian SF and guerilla warfare being exercised now by these units.

    1. there was a small blog comment mentioned once last week of a guerrilla unit in Donetsk killing over 30 mercenaries in random ambushes forcing the mercenaries to always move in groups. Never talked about since.

    2. Monday another small blog comment indicating another 60 killed mercenaries from a "local defense group" inside Donetsk.

    3. the separatist announcement/denials then Russian media announcements of the serious wounding of two of their major Russian mercenaries---a Ukrainian announcement mentioned that one had bee shot by a Ukrainian Seal team.

    4. Ukrainian SBU announced on Monday that during a raid on what seemed a normal irregular checkpoint killing all at the checkpoint turned out to be a raid killing an entire Russian Army SF team.
    .
    There seems to be a very focused attempt by the Ukrainian special operations (Alpha, former Alpha, Ukrainian SF and Airborne) to identify Russian SF types-- then raid and kill them--seems capture is not in the picture on these raids.

    Seems the Russian losses in the GRU/SF area is climbing the longer the fighting goes on.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2014 at 04:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.
    See, what major channels? Russian? Because multiple EU, US, Japanese and Ukraine sources are saying different on their news channels.

    In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813

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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28768746

    But the BBC's Daniel Sandford in Moscow says that long discussions are continuing about whether the lorries will actually be allowed to enter.
    Hardly so much has been confirmed, everyone is squabbling around it and way it's looking right now all those trucks might get passed off.

    Those trucks mostly mean, to me, Russia is disengaging. Putin gets to look like, hey I'm doing stuff. Within my means. Food and stuff. Will give him leeway when sending more. Keep himself kosher with the Russian population in the east for essentially 'abandoning them'. Because if he doesn't invade, and Ukraine finishes off the rebels, and they will unless Russia comes, they're not going to like him much anymore either.

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    Council Member BayonetBrant's Avatar
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    I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away

    http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/

    excerpt:
    The Kremlin, which has waged a massive disinformation campaign aimed at legitimizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, has employed so-called "troll armies" to invade online territories armed with pro-Moscow rhetoric.

    A June article by Max Seddon of BuzzFeed reported the Kremlin was spending millions of dollars to pay English-speaking Russians to promote President Vladimir Putin and his policies in U.S. media like Fox News broadcasting and The Huffington Post and Politico news sites. Trolls are reportedly expected to manage multiple fake accounts and post on news articles 50 times a day, often with sentiments as simplistic as "Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak!"

    In order to promote its narrative, the Kremlin has adopted a two-fisted strategy, unleashing its troll armies even as it tightens Internet restrictions at home. On August 1, Russia enacted controversial new legislation aimed at muzzling social media, the last bastion of the country's embattled opposition and a free flow of information about the war in Ukraine.

    Anton Nosik, a popular Russian blogger and programmer who is sometimes referred to as the "father of the Russian Internet," says the Kremlin is falling back on a time-honored strategy in its propaganda war on Ukraine. But this time, he says, the stakes are higher than ever before. (BuzzFeed reports that at least one trolling company—Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg—is expected to spend more than $10 million in 2014 alone.)

    "Comments were already serving as a well-financed Kremlin instrument of war against the opposition, even five years ago," he says. "So what's going on now is nothing new. But what's absolutely clear is that now they're spending more money on Ukraine than they ever spent against Alexei Navalny, or Ekho Moskvy, Kommersant, Gazeta.ru"—Russian media actors who have been targeted by the Kremlin in the past—"and all the rest."
    Brant
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    “their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of ‘rights’… and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure.” Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers 1959

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    Quote Originally Posted by BayonetBrant View Post
    I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away

    http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/

    excerpt:

    Actually Obama has achieved this:

    How Obama Is Driving Russia and China Together
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...together-10735
    Five Ways Russia Could Help China's Military Become Even Deadlier
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...ome-even-11000

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    SBU published yesterday intercepted call between FSB officer in Crimea and rebel in Donetsk (according to his text it seems that he is from Crimea also). Rebel tells FSB guy that everything is f...ed up and peoples' support is zero. First person (nickname for Girkin/Strelok) is under the influence of Russian orthodox sect and this is very bad. Some rebel groups are just stealing cars and selling the stuff in Russia. Donetsk has been devided to influence zones between different goups to carry out criminal activities. Rebel says that there is nothing to do. He should return to Crimea to deal with Tatars there. He says also that he has already organised his agentura in Donetsk and through this set he can organise resistance in the future. FSB guy offers to rebel exfil through Rostov oblast border crossing points, where his colleague can arrange safe crossing.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ow5sEsSyI4

    Rebel says that his agentura should go to Russia for training and arming and after infiltration should carry out attacks against Ukrainian forces. Rebel says that this should take place in Perevalnoe (This is "legendary" Ukrainian military base in Crimea, that was under siege of Russian troops in March).

    Video about Russian troops in Perevalnoe https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GzTV0tuQUzI

    Cossacks in action in Perevalnoe http://navoine.info/crimea-ryb-2.html

    One pic shows the commander of Russian troops and he has forgotten to remove Russian insignia from the hat. Otherwise he is normal green polite person.
    Last edited by kaur; 08-16-2014 at 03:11 PM.

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    This was the FTs headlines for today---70 Russian vehicles identified by NATO crossing into the Ukraine---attacked by artillery and the Ukrainians are claiming 70destroyed. No wonder the UK called in the Russian Ambassador yesterday to explain the Russian response ---"was ain't us that crossed".

    Can someone tell me why the Russian Defense Minister/Putin do not think the NATO/US AWACs and E3s do not carry GMTI sensors onboard?

    https://twitter.com/NATOSource/statu...792192/photo/1
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-16-2014 at 03:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    SBU published yesterday intercepted call between FSB officer in Crimea and rebel in Donetsk (according to his text it seems that he is from Crimea also). Rebel tells FSB guy that everything is f...ed up and peoples' support is zero. First person (nickname for Girkin/Strelok) is under the influence of Russian orthodox sect and this is very bad. Some rebel groups are just stealing cars and selling the stuff in Russia. Donetsk has been devided to influence zones between different goups to carry out criminal activities. Rebel says that there is nothing to do. He should return to Crimea to deal with Tatars there. He says also that he has already organised his agentura in Donetsk and through this set he can organise resistance in the future. FSB guy offers to rebel exfil through Rostov oblast border crossing points, where his colleague can arrange safe crossing.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ow5sEsSyI4

    Rebel says that his agentura should go to Russia for training and arming and after infiltration should carry out attacks against Ukrainian forces. Rebel says that this should take place in Perevalnoe (This is "legendary" Ukrainian military base in Crimea, that was under siege of Russian troops in March).

    Video about Russian troops in Perevalnoe https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GzTV0tuQUzI

    Cossacks in action in Perevalnoe http://navoine.info/crimea-ryb-2.html

    One pic shows the commander of Russian troops and he has forgotten to remove Russian insignia from the hat. Otherwise he is normal green polite person.
    Also in that same intercept quoted also by the German Der Spiegel today ---was the mention that the mercenaries can not hold out past the end of this month.

    This is an interesting comment as there have been several blog comments indicating that coming out of the ATO are comments stating that some of the mercenary units are trying to pull back into Russia stating 19 August.

    Yesterday one of the "independent BNs" working with the UA reported 45 Cossacks surrendered to them and they were handed over to the UA and SBU.

  16. #16
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyxilis View Post
    In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813
    I'd rather believe Poroshenko's Executive Office

    Украина не возражает против участия России в работе гуманитарной миссии в Луганск и область. Об этом заявил заместитель главы Администрации Президента Украины Валерий Чалый в эфире телеканала ICTV в понедельник, 11 августа.
    Ukraine doesn't object to Russian participation in humanitarian mission to Lugansk, said Deputy Head of Executive Office Valeri Chalyi, 11 Aug.

    http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/340...yia-prezydenta

    then Facebook minister Avakov who is well-known liar and clown.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 07:59 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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