Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

**carl** · 08-23-2014

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already. An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles. And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed. Nobody cares about the losers they have been using so far. If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

**Dayuhan** · 08-23-2014

Originally Posted by carl

An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

**carl** · 08-23-2014

applies

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

Or the prospect of Russki bodies he actually cares a little about might cause him to rethink the whole thing.

This is one of those situations I think where what Grant said to the officers of the Army of the Potomac when he took over applies, he told them to stop thinking about what Bobby Lee was going to do to them and start thinking about what they were going to do to him.

(Also what Outlaw said.)

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

AP--here is an example of the country you claim one has to "understand and see things from their perspective and when one does then negotiate".

Or at least that is a summary of what you were implying.

Read this article concerning the Russian truck drivers and mercenaries dismantling Ukrainian military production equipment from Ukrainian companies around the Donbas region.

Are we now back in 1945 when the Soviets dismantled everything the Germans had and shipped it back to the SU as reparations for the war--since when is the Ukraine to supply at no cost anything to the former Soviet Union since 1991?

Last time I checked the Ukrainians did not lose the war.

You really do need to go back and reread the secret agreements signed between Ribbentrop and Stalin on this exact day 23.8.1939 to really understand just why the Russians then the Soviet Union still feels today they can control the central European region and the Baltics---really read the secret agreement on how the Soviets and Germans divided up central Europe.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0GN08V20140823

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

AP---you do realize that the looted factory equipment can from a Ukrainian factory that produces a world class SIGINT line of equipment that the Russian Army needed in order to reach their 2020 military reforms program.

But hey I guess the Putin "wanted payments" for the delivered "humanitarian aid".

And again I state what is the US response and what is the US strategy for central Europe and the Baltics outside of just being verbal?

@RobPulseNews there were reports about disassembling "TOPAZ" that produced Kolchuga SIGINT complex @enigmaleggend @raging545

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

AP--another point to think about--go back and reread all the Russian statements made in the UNSC, statements made by the Russian FM and statements made by Putin himself--- when they voted down "humanitarian aid" for Syria---was meddling in Syrian internal affairs, trying to influence Syria, to used to create a reason to toss out Assad, to used use as a reason to use force against Assad--to even supporting terrorists with the aid.

Now just how is it then possible that Russia states the following today via RIA:

Russia Says Aid Delivery to East Ukraine Legal, Guided by Humanitarian Principles

Russia said Saturday its humanitarian assistance mission to turbulent eastern Ukraine had complied with the International Court of Justice ruling that allowed for the delivery of humanitarian aid to people disregarding their political convictions.

By the way it is the same IJC that ruled against Russia to the tune of 50B USD in the Yukos case ---and then the Russian Duma stated they should not obey and leave the IJC, to virtually the same remarks by the Russian FM and also from Putin.

So Russian argues one way when they want to and another way when they want to so just how does one then "negotiate" with a country that virtually lies with every statement when it suits them?

How does then the West "trust" a country when it speaks with three tongues?

**mirhond** · 08-23-2014

Originally Posted by carl

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already.

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111

If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!

Das ist eher fraglich. Komischerweise war vom Kiewer Stab der sogenannten Anti-Terror-Operation dazu stundenlang nichts zu hören. Erst gegen Abend meldete das Büro von Präsident Petro Poroschenko - und nicht etwa der zuständige Militärstab - die "teilweise" Vernichtung der Kolonne. Bilder davon hat die Regierung in Kiew bis heute nicht vorgelegt, auch die Amerikaner haben offenbar keine. Die besagte Kolonne ist inzwischen zudem von allen ukrainischen Nachrichtenseiten verschwunden.

So bleibt der Eindruck: Ja, den Einmarsch der 23 Fahrzeuge hat es tatsächlich gegeben, den Angriff möglicherweise aber nicht. Denn Kiew reagierte überhaupt erst, nachdem die Meldungen der beiden britischen Korrespondenten die Runde gemacht hatten. Eigentlich sollte es umgekehrt sein: Die eigene Aufklärung stellt das Eindringen der Fahrzeuge fest und berichtet darüber der Öffentlichkeit.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

Originally Posted by mirhond

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

come on comrade mirhond---even you have to now admit the photos, IDs, and Russian social media has fully indicated 38 Russian soldiers of the 76th AB Div were wounded and 60 killed.

figure out how many per IFV and you will come to the total of 100 plus Russians on the convoy.

come on comrade at least get your information sources correct

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

Awaiting the geo tagging of the solid fuel booster for the SS21 that was found in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/zexep/status/503...898560/photo/1

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

It appears that the Russian Army is expanding UAV and cross border artillery/MRL attacks now in the southern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/statu...46211550547968

#BreakingNews Russian army attacked the border crossing of #Novoazovsk near Mariupol multiple times during the last 2 days w/ Grads+mortars.

This goes a long way in understanding why the Russian Army is now engaging in the south along the Black Sea---there are indicators that the Russians want to expand their border control all the way to Odessa.

Notice the interplay between Russian artillery and mercenary artillery on the town Novoazoysk. from both sides of the border.

DONETSK, August 23 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian militia in the restive Donetsk region told RIA Novosti Saturday they were now fighting their way to the Sea of Azov in the country’s south.

A source in the militia headquarters told our correspondent that self-defense forces had been pounding government troops’ positions near the town of Novoazovsk, a port on the southeastern tip of Ukraine.

If the militias are victorious, forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) will gain access to the Sea of Azov, which is a northern extension of the Black Sea, while also taking control of a local checkpoint and forcing pro-Kiev troops away from the border with Russia.

Earlier reports said that heavy fighting near the Novoazovsk border crossing prompted Russian border guards to pull back inside the country over security concerns.

**OUTLAW 09** · 08-23-2014

NATO states Russian troops are inside the Ukraine---Moscow says no then this comes across the blogger world:

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...72204889763840

**carl** · 08-23-2014

Originally Posted by mirhond

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

I don't exactly know what your point is but when regular Russian troops come over the border in number (regardless of what they call themselves or are wearing) the fighting spirit and ability of the Ukrainians will be directly measurable by counting the number of full body bags heading back east. And if the Ukrainians were to be given more than adequate numbers of good weapons by us the prospect of that number of body bags being large may dissuade Vlad. Good for the Ukrainians, good for Russian mothers. Everybody is happy.