Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

War in Central Europe in the 21st century ---it is here and now after everyone assumed peace had broken out in 1994---think again.

An interesting question to commenters here--when does an "incursion" become an "invasion"----29 August 2014---and those who though Russia was not implementing their new Putin Doctrine and those that think Poland and the Baltics are not part of that plan think again.

Tweet just came in---typical for Russian lying.
Russia just complained about "insulting wording" from US Amb (me)-- Russian MFA prefers that Kremlin crimes discussed in polite language.

So the use of the word "invasion" is offensive?

Really go back and reread the Molotov/Ribbentrop secret agreements---Russia views itself as the follow on Soviet Union and Poland and the Baltics are theirs forever--as well as they have denied Ukrainian independence since 1920.

Everything was here to be "seen" some here and in US senior leadership positions failed again to "understand" what they were seeing---this has been a failure of Us politics since 9/11.

Had the seriously impacting sanctions on Gasprom and Putin himself been put into play thus would not be happening--cut Russia from all global capital markets and release the sour oil reserves and drive the price to 60 USD per barrel---then you will get Putin's attention---anything else is a complete waste of time--it is way past talking time.

I personally hate the sentence---I told you so but this was serious the second Putin gave his Duma speech---ethno national imperialism is alive and well in Russia and some of us old guys thought it had died out years ago.

#Ukraine calls for emergency UN Security Council meeting. @Yatsenyuk_AP https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...38601382960671 …

Here comes the land corridor that was discussed here in SWJ back when the Crimea issue started---amazing how some get it---wonder where JMA is as his comments would be interesting at this point.

Putin ultimate plan & possible actions to achieve. #Transnistria (& poss Belarus) will be included #Ukraine #Russia
pic.twitter.com/h2cNXZi2Kv

Ukrainian officials - Novoazovsk has fallen to Russia - opening up road to the port city of Mariupol and a possible land bridge to Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian has never given up on the killing of the Ukrainian EU Association Agreement as these three demands Russia made just after Minsk depict.

Russia proposes three key amendments to the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, reports Vedomosti citing a Russian government official.

First, it is offered to reexamine the parameters and periods of time given to lower taxes on EU goods in Ukraine. According to Vedomosti’s informant, they should be lowered gradually, Russia is concerned with the taxes on goods that constitute $4 billion out of $16 billion of the entire goods circulation volume.

Second, technical regulation has to be change, as technical rules of the EU are “much stricter.” Russia thinks that this will result in Russian goods being unable to access the Ukrainian market. It should be noted that the EU has stated numerous times that this fear is mostly fueled by myth.

Third, according to the Russian Federation, unification or mutual acknowledgment of phytosanitary norms are necessary: Russia has three forms of certification, the EU has one.

“An interim period” might be needed to sold the second and third issues, thinks the federal official.

Essentially, the execution of Russia’s proposals will mean not only a full reexamination of the Association Agreement in the free trade section, but also the reexamination of the EU’s rules on internal trade.

According to EuroPravda, the European Union denies the possibility of the trilateral Ukraine-Russia-EU consultations touching on the reexamination of the Association Agreement or any of its component.

Ukraine also rejected any amendments to the Agreement.

Thus Russian troops crossed the border to support these three points.

[OUTLAW 09]

More running blog comments coming out of the Ukraine.

On BBC there was an unnamed UK top official who stated he was surprised that the Russians would send troops---hope this is not the general thinking of western leaders up to yesterday---then we all are in trouble.

For SF active and retired---highlighted is a report on Russian SEAL teams in the Ukraine.

The blog site @bellingcat has been a great open source analysis team from the UK and they are the ones carrying the Russian SEAL info.
A really great open source analysis of a Russian SEAL team inside the Ukraine---the Russian military just does not get opsec even in their supposedly "elite units".

If the Russian/Putin lies were not so blatant it might actually be funny if this was not so serious---hard ot deny "it ain't us" when your own "elite" units use social media which an in fact be tracked/recorded.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Live blog on what is looking increasingly like open war between Ukraine and Russia. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...enko-live.html

Russia’s Version of the Navy SEALs May Be Fighting in Ukraine by @magnitsky on @Bellingcat https://bellingcat.com/news/mena/201...ng-in-ukraine/ …

NATO will sell weapons to #Ukraine- National Security Bureau of #Poland http://goo.gl/UfVadZ

BREAKING NEWS: Ukraine's OSCE envoy says city of Novoazovsk and other cities nearby have been seized by regular Russian forces – Reuters

Then the standard Russian refrain "it ain't me".
RIA Novosti ✔ @ria_novosti
Russian envoy tells #OSCE there is no Russian convoys in Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

This has got to be the height of Russia cynicism--and western leaders are suppose to trust Putin and negotiate what with a basic lair?

• Russian soldiers on leave fighting Ukrainian troops alongside rebels, pro-Russian separatist leader says

Begs the question since when in the Russian Army can a soldier take his own tank or artillery piece with him while on "vacation". Quite modern thinking for a military---maybe the Israeli IDF needs to copy that concept? Sure does save time when an alert is called.

• Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko says 3-4,000 serving Russian soldiers fighting against Ukrainian troops

[kaur]

Outlaw, I'm becoming little bit disappointed with bellingcat. How on earth is центр специального назначения Russian Navy SEAL? This unit is more like FBI HRT.

You posted also this bellingcat post. This was posted in Russian already in April and we managed to agree that this bearded cossack is not GRU Vostok guy already then. Bellingcat has missed that info also. In the end of August.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-e...k-wolf-sotnia/

If you'd like to post this info to bellingcat, you can make them look better

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...hechen&page=62

[Firn]

Parents’ anguish over captured soldiers lays bare Russia’s covert war in Ukraine

My complaint is to President Putin and the minister of defence: If you send servicemen somewhere and they get caught, then admit it and take responsibility, however painful it is,” said the father of Sergei Smirnov, one of the captured Russian soldiers, who did not want to give his first name.

“The Stalin times are over. It’s not 1945 when they rejected PoWs returning home. The state media have ignored our boys’ plight but they’ve got nothing to be ashamed of.” Interestingly, and despite their anxiety, most of the relatives said they believed the official government theory that the soldiers got lost while on an exercise.

However, several said it was an “alarm signal” that the young men send text messages after their departure to Rostov saying their phones were being removed, something that had not happened when they were dispatched on exercises to other parts of Russia.

Obviously the massive propaganda campaign by the Kremlin's media had a deep impact on most of the population and it takes a personal loss for some to wake up to some extent. The people want to believe Putins lies because they are sweeter then the harsh reality. With more Russian soldiers coming back dead every week this will spread, a bit like in those days of the war in Afghanistan. The official political response has been so far pretty much the same, including the efforts to hide the dead.

I'm not surprised that the phones were taken away, in a larger mass there are always some which do something stupid like giving away that they attacked Ukrainian forces or invaded the country - as some already did.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/...828-story.html

Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's National Security Council, said the missiles from Russia were fired about 11 a.m. About an hour and a half later, the vehicles entered Ukraine from Veselo-Voznesenka, just across the border from Novoazovsk in the Rostov region in Russia.
lRelated In Ukraine, pro-Russia separatists press on with building a new state

A top NATO official said at least 1,000 Russian troops have poured into Ukraine with sophisticated equipment and have been in direct “contact” with Ukrainian soldiers, resulting in casualties, the Associated Press reported. He called that a conservative estimate and said an additional 20,000 Russian troops were right over the border in Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

This from the US UN ambassador kind of sums it up--the question for the US senior leadership---will it lead or simply do nothing as they did in 2008 with Gorgia---three wmonths later back to business as normal.

@AmbassadorPower: How can we tell countries bordering Russia their sovereignty is guaranteed if we don't make our message heard on Ukraine?

Did I miss something---was it not the US/UK that signed the Budapest Memorandum?

Late last night received a short note via a secure method from a close friend who is a Ukrainian SF company commander--and if you are old school US SF then you know what it means.

"Going to ground" was all he passed to me---he leads a sniper/guerrilla sabotage company. There has been since Feb and not talked a lot about--- a brutal Ukrainian SF/SBU counter SF fight in the Ukraine against GRU and Russian SF teams inside the Ukraine.

My response back---stay safe.

His going to ground could have been avoided if the US leadership would have fully understood Putin's Duma speech which was translated into English so there is no excuse that no one read it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, I'm becoming little bit disappointed with bellingcat. How on earth is центр специального назначения Russian Navy SEAL? This unit is more like FBI HRT.

You posted also this bellingcat post. This was posted in Russian already in April and we managed to agree that this bearded cossack is not GRU Vostok guy already then. Bellingcat has missed that info also. In the end of August.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-e...k-wolf-sotnia/

If you'd like to post this info to bellingcat, you can make them look better

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...hechen&page=62

kaur---will pass it on to bellingcat.

Here is more on the killed Russian SF team together with their dogs.

One of #Russian army SOF unit commanders killed in #Ukraine by UA #SOF unit on August 26 along 6 other members.
pic.twitter.com/Nufqz8yYxY

[OUTLAW 09]

A Russian soldier who chooses to fight in #Ukraine on his summer break is still a Russian soldier.
Quoted by US UNSC Ambassador.

See this is the core problem with US lack of policy ie no strategy.

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian GRU/SF sabotage teams are now fanning out inside the Ukraine.

In #Kharkiv car detained, found inside more than 40 different grenades, 3 MANPADS, AK and 1,000 rounds of ammunition.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to 'Madhu' on SWJ Blog 'Russia’s ‘Hybrid War’ ' I will re-post my reply to her here.

A number of times references have been made in the media and on Small Wars Council about Russian dependence of Ukrainian industrial production of key weapons systems and part, in particular aero engines.

Yesterday the BBC reported that a:

A Ukrainian firm has moved the contents of its engineering factory from the war-hit city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine to central Russia....There was no indication of how the contents of the Luhansk machine-building plant had been moved

Maybe the long convoy of partly empty 'white' trucks had another purpose, so back to the BBC report:

The revelations emerged after Ukraine claimed a Russian aid convoy had been used to move equipment from a factory that made parts for helicopter engines

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28951437

I wonder if the current incursions, no invasion, amidst its aims includes the relevant factories and an opportunity to rescue them for Russia?

[Dayuhan]

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

Again I think you overlook a basic reality: unilateral sanctions will not be effective, multilateral sanctions will not be quick. Action can either be fast and decisive or it can be multiilateral: it will never be both. Everybody sees what's going on, but they have to thrash out what they are willing to do in return. That won't be done overnight, because all of the parties doing the thrashing out have domestic impacts to consider. The US can't take effective economic action on its own, neither can it dictate what actions will be taken by others

That's not ideal, but it's what exists.