Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Several ongoing parallel events that can shift to full warfare by the Russian intervention force parked on the border which has gone to high alert status.

Especially after the eastern Ukraine "declared their independence" on Friday.

Russia announces a three-day exercise near the Ukrainian border. On previous occasions it meant a surge of the intervention corps


1. the Ukrainian Army has basically completely refitted and rearmed and has launched an effective guerrilla war

2. the Russian economy is in totally free fall and is effectively headed to a default

3. the oil price is headed to the 40s range and the Russian economy at that range will never fully recover

4. the Russian population is getting on edge as they sense the economy is tanking and the percentage wanting no war in the Ukraine is climbing

5. more Russian soldiers are refusing to go to the Ukraine coupled with high loss of troops

6. by Spring 2015 the Russian mercenaries and troops will not be able to expand their current area leaving a small current occupied region to be a non viable area which Russia cannot economically support--estimates are that Russia is currently paying 20M a day to field their troops and support the mercenaries

7. Russia has not been able to "freeze" the situation as they did in Moldavia and Georgia as things have not gone back to "business as usual"

More importantly--the Ukraine votes this week to give up their non aligned status a supposedly Russian red line as Putin and his FM have stated a number of times.

Thus the interesting question for this White House--if Russia makes a military move to annex the full Donbas or their New Russia just what will the US response be when "soft power" has be proven to have failed?

[OUTLAW 09]

Several ongoing parallel events that can shift to full warfare by the Russian intervention force parked on the border which has gone to high alert status.

Especially after the eastern Ukraine "declared their independence" on Friday.

Russia announces a three-day exercise near the Ukrainian border. On previous occasions it meant a surge of the intervention corps


1. the Ukrainian Army has basically completely refitted and rearmed and has launched an effective guerrilla war

2. the Russian economy is in totally free fall and is effectively headed to a default

3. the oil price is headed to the 40s range and the Russian economy at that range will never fully recover

4. the Russian population is getting on edge as they sense the economy is tanking and the percentage wanting no war in the Ukraine is climbing

5. more Russian soldiers are refusing to go to the Ukraine coupled with high loss of troops

6. by Spring 2015 the Russian mercenaries and troops will not be able to expand their current area leaving a small current occupied region to be a non viable area which Russia cannot economically support--estimates are that Russia is currently paying 20M a day to field their troops and support the mercenaries

7. Russia has not been able to "freeze" the situation as they did in Moldavia and Georgia as things have not gone back to "business as usual"

More importantly--the Ukraine votes this week to give up their non aligned status a supposedly Russian red line as Putin and his FM have stated a number of times.

Thus the interesting question for this White House--if Russia makes a military move to annex the full Donbas or their New Russia just what will the US response be when "soft power" has be proven to have failed?

Russian top brass (200 generals and other commanders) meeting and strategizing somewhere in Rostov region http://function.mil.ru/news_page/cou...2003792@egNews …

[OUTLAW 09]

After a 7-month unsuccessful assault, "Donetsk Republic" finally admitted that seizing the airport "makes no sense".
http://www.62.ua/news/690666

Russian military aircraft are now a threat to civilian air craft in the Baltic.


NATO: Russians "are not filing their flight plans... not communicating w/ civilian air traffic control... not turning on their transponders

[OUTLAW 09]

First clear indicator of the emerging Ukrainian SOF guerrilla war fully aimed at the Russian Army.

This is the inherent key to resisting the new Russian UW strategy --a proactive counter guerrilla war fought by SOF jointly with CF.

North of #Novoazovsk, pro-Ukrainian partisans attacked a communication center of Russian troops, causing losses.

Novoazovsk sector is de facto Russian-occupied
Fair to say (pro-)Ukrainian insurgents there

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian state sponsored ship theft inside France?

Gazeta.ru claims #Russian marines fr Vladivastok took under its control #Mistral #Vladivostok.

http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/1..._6339929.shtml … pic.twitter.com/ZVmTbgVVpE

[OUTLAW 09]

This is one reason why the current Russian troop loses are so high.


Per #DonetskAirport defenders #Russia is using army conscripts for assault of the airport w horrendous results.

http://chdnews.com.ua/index.php/soby...roshat-v-myaso

[OUTLAW 09]

Now it appears Russia is pulling back into Russia all their damaged heavy equipment ie tanks/APCs.

BLOG: Evidence that Russia is transporting back its destroyed tanks from Ukraine

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...nsporting.html …
pic.twitter.com/vjKHubtKWi

[OUTLAW 09]

Anthrax from where?
During the Cold War there were reports of outbreaks of anthrax in the areas of older settlements from the 14-17th century period from this area where outbreaks had naturally occurred--where the spores were/are still in the soil and still viable. The Russians have been doing a lot of digging new positions.

Twelve of the Russian "tourists" got into the Luhansk hospital with anthrax pic.twitter.com/hMFT6OpgW0
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/16-dece...to-the-luhansk …

[OUTLAW 09]

VIDEO #Russia ARMY in winter wear #Donetsk #Ukraine deploy white recon drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o031hvK56CI …
pic.twitter.com/sZbBpJDOox

[OUTLAW 09]

Armed Forces on 16 DEC in LV EEZ 8,5 nmi from territ. waters spotted RU Navy's Yury Ivanov-class intelligence collection ship

[OUTLAW 09]

First clear indicator of the emerging Ukrainian SOF guerrilla war fully aimed at the Russian Army.

This is the inherent key to resisting the new Russian UW strategy --a proactive counter guerrilla war fought by SOF jointly with CF.

North of #Novoazovsk, pro-Ukrainian partisans attacked a communication center of Russian troops, causing losses.

Novoazovsk sector is de facto Russian-occupied
Fair to say (pro-)Ukrainian insurgents there

Another indication of the ongoing guerrilla war on both sides.

12 #Russia saboteurs attempted to attack #Ukraine troops from rear.Got fired on two surrendered, the rest killed

pic.twitter.com/VQ2bxZMTp8

[BrentWilliams]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/wo...ions-bill.html

President Obama has decided to sign legislation imposing further sanctions on Russia and authorizing additional aid to Ukraine, despite concerns that it will complicate his efforts to maintain a unified front with European allies, the White House said on Tuesday.

The legislation calls for a raft of new measures penalizing Russia’s military and energy sectors and authorizes $350 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including antitank weapons, tactical surveillance drones and counter-artillery radar. The bill was approved unanimously by Congress, but Mr. Obama hedged for days on whether he would sign it.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/wo...ions-bill.html

But the Ukrainians are saying that even with the signing Obama is indicating he has a lot of lee way in implementing it so they are anticipating seeing any defensive weapons also since NATO General Sec announced today no weapons on the Ukraine ---unless bilateral.

[OUTLAW 09]

Out of the concept of hybrid warfare has come two critical aspects that is not talked about a lot.

1. weaponization of information
2. weaponization of code

Sony Hack Attacks Presage New Warfare: The Weaponization of Code http://ht.ly/2Sb2SB

[BrentWilliams]

But the Ukrainians are saying that even with the signing Obama is indicating he has a lot of lee way in implementing it so they are anticipating seeing any defensive weapons also since NATO General Sec announced today no weapons on the Ukraine ---unless bilateral.

You also have the EU saying that they agree with new sanctions. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...ing-continues/

This isn't gong to well for Russia/Russian backed forces. They aren't holding that much area in Ukraine. They aren't gaining anything by military means currently (See Donetsk airport) And the Russian economy is going down the drain.

Signing the bill gives him manuver space to keep bring Europe along and offers means to continue to hurt Russia.

Who knows what will happen, but I rather be in the position of the US/EU then Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

You also have the EU saying that they agree with new sanctions. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...ing-continues/

This isn't gong to well for Russia/Russian backed forces. They aren't holding that much area in Ukraine. They aren't gaining anything by military means currently (See Donetsk airport) And the Russian economy is going down the drain.

Signing the bill gives him manuver space to keep bring Europe along and offers means to continue to hurt Russia.

Who knows what will happen, but I rather be in the position of the US/EU then Russia.

The EU sanctions were those previously passed by the EU concerning the Crimea-but not placed into being six months ago--the US was sectorial in nature focusing largely on military industrial plants.

He had to sign the bill which he did not want to do because the new EU sanctions were already decided upon before the US bill was passed and if he had not signed it --it then would have looked odd that the EU was moving ahead and the US was going to do nothing--so here the roles were reversed.

[BrentWilliams]

Several ongoing parallel events that can shift to full warfare by the Russian intervention force parked on the border which has gone to high alert status.

Especially after the eastern Ukraine "declared their independence" on Friday.

Russia announces a three-day exercise near the Ukrainian border. On previous occasions it meant a surge of the intervention corps


1. the Ukrainian Army has basically completely refitted and rearmed and has launched an effective guerrilla war

2. the Russian economy is in totally free fall and is effectively headed to a default

3. the oil price is headed to the 40s range and the Russian economy at that range will never fully recover

4. the Russian population is getting on edge as they sense the economy is tanking and the percentage wanting no war in the Ukraine is climbing

5. more Russian soldiers are refusing to go to the Ukraine coupled with high loss of troops

6. by Spring 2015 the Russian mercenaries and troops will not be able to expand their current area leaving a small current occupied region to be a non viable area which Russia cannot economically support--estimates are that Russia is currently paying 20M a day to field their troops and support the mercenaries

7. Russia has not been able to "freeze" the situation as they did in Moldavia and Georgia as things have not gone back to "business as usual"

More importantly--the Ukraine votes this week to give up their non aligned status a supposedly Russian red line as Putin and his FM have stated a number of times.

Thus the interesting question for this White House--if Russia makes a military move to annex the full Donbas or their New Russia just what will the US response be when "soft power" has be proven to have failed?

I would imagine military aid from Europe and the US. Further economic sanctions from both. And discussions with Finland and Sweden about joining NATO.

[BrentWilliams]

The EU sanctions were those previously passed by the EU concerning the Crimea-but not placed into being six months ago--the US was sectorial in nature focusing largely on military industrial plants.

He had to sign the bill which he did not want to do because the new EU sanctions were already decided upon before the US bill was passed and if he had not signed it --it then would have looked odd that the EU was moving ahead and the US was going to do nothing--so here the roles were reversed.

The administration shaped the bill. It is designed to give him room to maneuver because that was what was demanded.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/wo...bill.html?_r=0

But under pressure from the Obama administration, lawmakers removed elements that would have tied the president’s hands, including a provision that would have barred lifting sanctions until Russia was not only out of Ukraine but Moldova and Georgia, too, where lingering conflicts are not likely to be resolved soon.

This is not a bill that he was "forced" into. It is a bill the administration wanted, even if it wanted to signal that it was uneasy about getting ahead of Europe. The basic strategy is to get Europe to move as far as possible, given they are the ones with greater economic ties to Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another indication of the ongoing guerrilla war on both sides.

12 #Russia saboteurs attempted to attack #Ukraine troops from rear.Got fired on two surrendered, the rest killed

pic.twitter.com/VQ2bxZMTp8

Looks like the Ukrainians have learned the Russian game of deniability.

There are Ukrainian partisans on the occupied territories in #Donbas, they self-organize, do not coordinate w/ Armed Forces - ATO spox

[OUTLAW 09]

Has Putin really given up on the New Russia or just taking a tactical turn?—he has taken a tactical turn because his actions on the ground continue to point out his tactical directions—Rubel is crashing and the mercenaries and his troops step up their attacks during a one sided “ceasefire” and he claims at the same time via his FM they want Ukrainian territorial integrity?

Merkel, Putin, Hollande & Poroshenko phonecall last night, 2 discuss Ukraine. Follows Kerry comment that lifting sanx dep on Putin's choices

The word truce was used by Putin but the Ukrainians have held onto a one sided truce three times and Russian troops and mercenaries have failed to maintain that “ceasefire” each time with high Ukrainian loses---actually Russia never attempted to hold to any and yet the world is set to again “believe” words Putin uses?

Up to 240 Rus mercenaries trained in Rus Rostov reg are being deployed to Stanytsia Luhanska, Shchastya
https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymc...05014569627202 …

26 RUSSIAN ATTACKS VS UKRAINIAN TARGETS TOOK PLACE ACROSS #DONBAS YESTERDAY.
We are back on the Sept 5 "ceasefire" track.
Yday attacked
Shchastya,Old Aydar,Stanitsa-Luhanska,Trehizbenka,Krymske,Sokolniki,Pisky,Avdiy ivka,Debaltseve,Nikishin,Novogrigorevka,Frunze.
+ SIX times Donetsk airport.
The Ukrainian army replied to A NONE of the attacks it says...

A Rus drone flew over #Talakovka.
"Our A-A gunners watched it, however,adhering to the silence regime,did not to open fire."

Tymchuk: Russian proxies (DPR) have been unable to enlist the local population to fight in their ranks. Total local enlistment is under 1000

#Volunteers upfront: #Severodonetsk residents, #Luhansk Obl make camo net for #Ukraine’s army https://www.facebook.com/empr.media/...27943997409980 … pic.twitter.com/VrWJXSpWPX