Article concerning a new Russian website for Russian MIAs, KIAs, and WIAs in the Ukraine. The important piece of info---actually created and uploaded in Russia not from outside bloggers.
You will notice a couple of individuals listed on the site with ties to the Russian SF and or were Russian SF trainers.
http://en.inforesist.org/a-website-f...ted-in-russia/
There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.
Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.
KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.
There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.
There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/
Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.
Russian mercenaries still have a hard time aiming and firing accuarately the BM21s they have---hit today a Donetsk coalmine and set it on fire.
The "October" mine in #Donetsk city is burning after being hit by "Russian terrorist Grad missiles".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE1olE1RtM …
Interesting US comment concerning the 1997 NATO Russian Founding Act.
Philip Karber, a former senior U.S. defense official who has provided assessments of Ukraine’s military to Congress, said, “Russia occupies and incorporates Crimea, shoots down civilian aircraft, then violently invades and is destroying Ukrainian army—and we are supposed to honor a non-treaty, 15-year-old commitment? If the U.S. is playing by those kind of rules we are in much bigger trouble than we admit and our allies are doomed.”
If it had been Putin he would have already violated/ignored it---if it stopped him from his stated end goal.
This chart accurately depicts if one takes all Russian/Putin statements since before the Crimea and his latest New Russia statements as to what his end state is for south/eastern Ukraine.
(Pro-)#Russian territorial aspirations. Everything right of and under the red line.
pic.twitter.com/z8zI181GMd
https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/s...982144/photo/1
Social media analyst types are now branching out and searching Russian social media and finding some interesting information.
Here is a picture of a Russian military member on the left and he again in a Berkut Special Police uniform on the Maidan.
Begs the question just how involved were the Russian GRU and Russian military in countering physically the Maidan on Ukrainian soil?
I posted a link to a Russian Navy SEAL who had been in the Ukraine in Feb 2014.
If you wondered, who killed people on #Euromaidan: soldiers from #Russia in #Ukraine uniform!
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...72131424063488 … pic.twitter.com/KZK9ARCrd1
The Russian soldier in the picture was recently captured and sent back seriously wounded to Rostov by the Ukrainian Army thus his picture was used to match other social media inputs.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 03:46 PM.
Another indicator that the Ukrainian Army is shifting tactics---and going to guerrilla warfare concept--their SF have already moved into that mode.
#Ukrainian Army HQ plans to establish partisan movement. Partisan units commanders r already defined, NSC spox
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/1/7036468/ … |EMPR
Outlaw,
If Putin wanted to annex eastern Ukraine, he would have seized it when Russia seized Crimea. He would have accepted, not rejected, the Donetsk petition for annexation. And he certainly would not have financed a protracted and destructive conflict that will cost billions in reconstruction for a Russian economy that has many of its own problems already. Moscow does not want to annex eastern Ukraine - it wants to weaken Ukraine and obstruct its participation in Western economic, security, and political institutions in order to create space between Russia and NATO.
Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.
The Ukraine government does not have the strength to sustain a protracted conflict, especially one that Moscow can unilaterally escalate. Rebuilding the political structures in the eastern regions will be difficult for Kiev already, on top of the economic reconstruction necessary, and the continued threat of Russian interference. How will Kiev manage the demobilization of the militants and incorporate them into the political process? How will Kiev finance reconstruction, and under what conditions will the West extend more loans for it? Can Russia be expected to offer loans for reconstruction and what will be the political price for that support? In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 09-03-2014 at 03:57 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
I hope that such an agreement takes place quickly although I'm doubtful to say the least. So far Putin has often 'de-escalated' - and escalated in words only to push hard in a single direction when it came to facts. We will see.Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.
My take is that Russia is fighting a losing battle in the long term if the EU and the USA are not too mild with their sanctions and not too weak with their (mostly economic) support. In fact Russia has already lost a huge deal, less then the target of it's aggression of course but far more then the Western world. War is generally a loss for the countries involved, for some more and for some less. Sanctions are quite similar as they disrupt free trade. Sadly in quite a few occasions letting an aggressor continue does offer still worse choices.In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.
I'm pretty sure nobody knows exactly what will happen in the next days, weeks, months or years. Lots of wars were started with the illusion of a relatively quick and bloodless victory, just like this one as I suppose. In quite a few cases those became very costly for the invader, eroding the will of the population. Propaganda helps to support the political goals of the leadership, but it has limits as history has shown.
In the meantime the German government has given the go-ahead for 20.000 protective vests. Merkel had promised at a CDU meeting to take personally care of their delivery. I have of course no idea how quickly they will reach the Ukrainian troops...
Last edited by Firn; 09-03-2014 at 05:24 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.Originally Posted by AmericanPride
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
This seems to confirm the existence of mobile Russian military field crematoriums.
Seems like the Russian Army wants no existence of killed Russian soldiers to make it back to the motherland and their mothers.
This is #Russian army mobile crematorium brought to #Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6L0jiMloO8 …
http://informnapalm.org/916-armyya-rf-
How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?
Here is the current "realpolitik" that does not makes sense;
1. if the fighting has died down as the UA and independent BNs have all but pulled back as to not be encircled---then why the increased numbers of wounded and killed coming in---who is then doing the fighting?
Someone or something is causing a high rate of sudden causalities and it is not the Ukrainian Army---rumors have it as Ukrainian SF strikes against lone units not anticipating guerilla style raids.
BREAKING Since 11:00 fr #Mariupol to #Donetsk hospital local emergency brigades are on constant back-and-forth trips. Seems terrs die easily
2. if the Russian Army/Russian separatists are so well liked in eastern Ukraine then why do Russian troops at a Luhansk CPs ask those that are leaving to stay and they will get jobs?
Does that make sense to you and that is another example of "altered state of reality". At the height of the separatist movement Girkin was openly complaining he could not get more than 1000 Ukrainians to fight with him in the separatist movement--thus the heavy reliance on Russian mercenaries and now Russian troops.
BREAKING #Luhansk CPs are openly manned w #Russian army soldiers. Ask ppl not to leave the city. Promise jobs.
"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy--this ties into the Russian strategy of "believing one's own propaganda"---always a great idea.
Let's see;
1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months/years to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do
2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army has to be explained away as what a separatist strategy in largely ethnic Russian area?
3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there
4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear and UW threats---great move there as well
5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move
6. if destroying your own economy is a strategy---massive more on that strategy
7. having your banking system come to a stand still is what---worth it all?
8. having the Gazprom delivery contracts openly challenged in court--great move there as well
So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy---all I see is stupidity caused by an altered state of believing one's own propaganda.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-04-2014 at 05:16 PM.
AP--here is a partial answer to the high rate of losses and wounded on the Russian side--the reports of this particular battle indicated from Russian propaganda side a humiliating loss for the Ukrainians and Russian TV was there live---then this today.
BREAKING Reports coming@ #Ilovaisk fields are littered w bodies of tank &scout unit fr #RUS 9th Vislenskaya SOF ОМСБр
pic.twitter.com/
More losses to explain the high rates:
BREAKING Today fr #Ilovaisk 800 dead bodies of #Russian army VDV soldiers has been collected. This was suppose to have been a major defeat for the Ukrainians--they had only 100 KIAs and 120 POWs
In this week alone 30 #Russian army soldiers fr #Kostroma got killed in war activities in #Ukraine
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-04-2014 at 05:29 PM.
AP--see this is why you do not know what is going on inside the combat zones---right now there is a brutal Ukrainian SF guerrilla war--ie ambushing on lone Russian units as they are not massed as they would normally be in a more conventional war with tank on tank but rather spread out across the countryside.
Especially their fuel trucks and supply convoys.
Video: #Russian army vehicles burning bright @ #Mariupol on September 4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHYuhOCzA …
Whoever said that realpolitik does not include negotiations when negotiations achieve the interests of the state?
If Russia has material interests, and if its actions achieve those material interests, then how is its foreign policy "stupid"?
I'm fairly confident the Russians have already considered this; hence their reluctance to outright occupy or annex the region in the first place. And since the region is still de jure a part of Ukraine, it will legally be Kiev's responsibility to manage the problem, and the Russians I'm sure won't have any issues in offering their aid and advice.
Why do you assume that the local population will blame Moscow and not Kiev for their problems?
That remains to be seen - there's a wide gulf between potential and performance. Ukraine is not in the political or security situation to join EU or NATO without serious internal turmoil. And if a third of the country is occupied by the Russian army, NATO won't be inclined to invite Ukraine into the organization.
Russia wants to be recognized as a great power, so how is that a criticism?
What does trust have to do with realpolitik? The fundamental problem in international security is that there is no trust, and that the actions and statements of other states cannot be validated. And this is clearly evident in Russia's consistent distrust in the intentions of NATO since the collapse of the USSR.
Of course you don't - you've been on an anti-Russian screed since the start of the crisis. Sure - Russia's behavior is not in the best interest of the U.S., but that does not mean that Russian leaders are living in an "altered state of reality" or that they are "irrational". Ignoring the facts that Russian elites do have goals, and have tied specific strategies and resources to these goals, is an "altered state of reality" that serves no useful purpose.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 09-04-2014 at 05:25 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Then AP you are fully aware of what is going on inside the combat zones right now---and yes in the towns and villages still under UA control after retaking them---even the ethnic Russians were happy to see them..
You have got to get out more often.
If I recall correctly you were the one appealing for "understanding Russian concerns and for totally negotiating correct---and what has that gotten you?
So with six off ramps for Putin---and he is still attacking the Ukraine and funneling in more troops and equipment and what has negotiations gotten you?
Does it honestly strike you Putin even wants an off ramp?
You do remember I stated a number of times he is coming across the border--that much was clear from his Duma speech if you took the time to reread it---all there to be fully understood.
Your not making much sense.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-04-2014 at 06:44 PM. Reason: fix quote
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