Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[Dayuhan]

And so here we come full cycle. It's clear that Russia has the motive, means, and opportunity to act as a spoiler. But why now?

The simple answer to "why now" is that Russia isn't choosing their own time. Certainly Russia is acting as a spoiler in both Syria and the Ukraine, but in both cases the Russian involvement is reactive, not proactive. The Russians didn't initiate the Syrian crisis: the 2011 attempt to expand the Arab Spring into Syria was not their doing. They reacted when one of their very few external allies was threatened. The Russians didn't initiate the Maidan revolt either: they reacted to the perceived threat of having a border state that they've long considered part of their natural sphere of influence move firmly into the Western orbit.

Conspiracy theories aside, these situations grew out of local conditions that were not created (or in many ways fully anticipated) by the US, by "the West" collectively, or by Russia. The external players are in reactive roles, trying to turn events to their advantage. "Why now" was not determined by a decision from any outside player, the outside players simply responded to local events.

It may be true that Russian confidence and relative capacity is growing, but Russian influence is not. If the Ukraine emerges from this with a firmly pro-western regime (with or without Crimea and Donetsk), Putin's only ally on his western border will be the consummate loose cannon that is Lukashenko. Sooner or later he will fall (they all do) and who knows what happens then? Assad may well remain in power, but Syria will be a broken state and as much liability as asset for Putin for years to come. Chinese influence is growing in the 'Stans. Worldwide, nations that find themselves out of favor in the West are increasingly looking to China, rather than Russia, for support and leadership. It's difficult to argue that Russia is in any way ascendant in the global influence derby. Who do they influence?

[OUTLAW 09]

There has been a rather good series of articles on the Ukraine/Russian running from reporters of the csm.com.

This one is a good reflection of those having lived under the Russian mercenaries and now feel that Russia lied to them ie meaning the propaganda was believed but then the reality of the armed separatists was totally different.

This physiological shift is important in actually countering Russia---when the ethnic Russian target population finally realizes that they are part of their own country and that country pays attention finally to them and that they are not some figment of a dream then Russia is no longer a threat to the Baltics and the Ukraine.

This is the true shift that has to happen--in fact the Russian information war has slid into disarray since the crash as the world just as the eastern Ukraine "saw" the truth, woke up, and questioned.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europ...anipulating-us

[Firn]

It may be true that Russian confidence and relative capacity is growing, but Russian influence is not. If the Ukraine emerges from this with a firmly pro-western regime (with or without Crimea and Donetsk), Putin's only ally on his western border will be the consummate loose cannon that is Lukashenko. Sooner or later he will fall (they all do) and who knows what happens then? Assad may well remain in power, but Syria will be a broken state and as much liability as asset for Putin for years to come. Chinese influence is growing in the 'Stans. Worldwide, nations that find themselves out of favor in the West are increasingly looking to China, rather than Russia, for support and leadership. It's difficult to argue that Russia is in any way ascendant in the global influence derby. Who do they influence?

I share that way. Overall the discussion seems to drift towards the US-Russian relationship.

@outlaw: A good read. While one should remain sceptical it is difficult to see much military local support in this Russian project. Still there was and is some, even if it is difficult to quantify.

So when the rebellion came to Slaviansk, it was welcomed by much of the Russian-speaking population – as it was across eastern Ukraine. But the rebels, whose numbers in the city were estimated between 5,000 and 7,000, had a distinctly non-local, Russian flavor.

Those numbers are far more then anything I have seen before.

[OUTLAW 09]

Not all Ukrainian oligarchs are just sitting this out or funding their own private fighting groups---this oligarch sold his RR and joined the Ukrainian Army and has been in the forward lines from the beginning.

He says the Russian invasion has changed radically his perspectives.

Wonder if similar Americans of wealth would drop everything and join the US Army?

Amazing what Putin has created inside the Ukraine.

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/v...d_4033086.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Spin, spinning, spun---wonder if Putin includes the Russian historical drive as he stated for strong cordial relations between countries to include the Crimea and eastern Ukraine?

Has Putin now expanded his views of who makes up Russia by expanding it to cover all Slavic populations as well as Russian populations?

RIA from today:

MOSCOW, August 1 (RIA Novosti) – On the eve of the First World War, Russia did everything possible to persuade Europe to resolve the conflict peacefully and to avoid bloodshed, which reflects the character of the state, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday.

According to Putin, Russia has been advocating strong, cordial relations between countries for ages.

“And this is how it was on the eve of the First World War, when Russia went to great lengths to persuade Europe to settle the conflict between Serbia and Austria-Hungary peacefully. But [Europe] turned a deaf ear to Russian pleas. And it had to confront the challenge and protect the Slavic population, shielding its citizens from external threats,” Putin stressed.

The president added that Russia fulfilled its duty and succeeded in withstanding the onslaught.

[Firn]

German helpers in uniform is a reportage by the German ARD about German citiziens supporting the (Pro)Russian cause. There are supposed to be three Germans fighting on their side of whom the ARD was able to interview one, a certain Nikolaj with a partly Russian background.

More interesting is the way the support campaign is organized and connected to the armed groups. Google translate should help.

[AmericanPride]

From the Independent:

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.

The incident with the Malaysian flight stalled the negotiations. Also - the Crimean events remind me in some way of the U.S. annexation of Texas. Just a thought.

Anyway, seems like the Germans are the only ones offering a solution that restores functional political relationships and doesn't involve killing more people. Fancy that.

[Firn]

From the Independent:

Anyway, seems like the Germans are the only ones offering a solution that restores functional political relationships and doesn't involve killing more people. Fancy that.

It's owner has been discussed before. Maybe this means that there is some truth behind it, maybe not. Who knows.

[Firn]

This is what the current military situation looks according to the Ukrainians.



The design of the Wikipedia map has changed to the better, showing now extent of the urban areas. I tried before to come up with a rough guess of the populations in occupied and liberated areas but this gives a pretty good overview of it at a glance. It may be sometimes a bit misleading, for example Horlivka is of course less densly populated then Donesk, but overall a great way to present the situation.




It also shows that dense urban areas are the cornerstones of the Pro(Russians) defence. The fighting seems to especially fierce in the are of the three cities Shaktarsk, Torez, Shizne along the H21 where Ukrainian forces threaten to cut the (Pro)Russian area in two. Much of the debris of MH17 is found not far north-east of them.

[JMA]

German helpers in uniform is a reportage by the German ARD about German citiziens supporting the (Pro)Russian cause. There are supposed to be three Germans fighting on their side of whom the ARD was able to interview one, a certain Nikolaj with a partly Russian background.

The Russian / German connection is one of the sad and tragic byproducts of the Soviet invasion of Germany in the closing stages of WW2.

One needs to read Antony Beevor's book The Fall of Berlin 1945 to be able to understand the scale of the Russian war crimes committed by the invading Soviet soldiers one of which was mass rape.

This article 'They raped every German female from eight to 80' gives an idea of the scale of these crimes. As a result there were many thousands of Russian fathered offspring.

Many of these children and in turn their own offspring have not had a easy life in Germany as this story attests - The Occupation and its Offspring: Lost Red Army Children Search for Fathers .

This legacy - of Russian fathered children - continued - though on much a smaller scale - in the occupied East Germany up to the final withdrawal of Soviet troops after 49 years.

There should be no surprise that there will be a sizeable number of 'Germans' who would feel more at home under their 'fathers' umbrella if welcomed even if they will be cynically used by the Russians as cannon fodder.

If one observes the Afghan men in Kabul it is obvious that there is a Russian legacy in this respect too where an significant minority of men between the ages 25-35 have obvious Russian type features.