Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[BrentWilliams]

BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.

[OUTLAW 09]

I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.

BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...re-363171.html

AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs …

pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.

[OUTLAW 09]

Now the Russian "altered state of reality" is taking on contours.

If one Googles' "Russian 2012 nuclear strategy" you will find in a number of Russian articles the mention of a first strike ability and going immediately to tactical nuclear weapons.

If you then Google other Russian military articles say since 2008 there is a repeated fear by Russian military planners of a conventional war and losing that conventional war---they still regard NATO to be far stronger than the Russian Army even if it takes 28 countries to decide something.

Which is probably a correct assessment of NATO combat abilities in a conventional environment--they view NATO forces to be better lead, professional and well equipped--especially the air forces.

Thus the constant talk that is repeated in their new nuclear strategy released in 2012 which calls for a tactical first strike ability.

So this Interfax press release might be designed to cause NATO to rethink especially in light of the coming NATO Russian decisions this week---but in the "altered state of reality" it has been there since 2012--so really nothing but hot air.

The problem I foresee for Russia with their nuclear statements from today and the implied threat of tactical nukes being used in the Ukraine, and their tactical exercised nuke strike on Poland and the Baltics--- will be the demand by the weaken NATO members for a new missile shield which will then panic Russia and that is their worst nightmare---meaning a true threat to eliminate their first strike abilities---but again provoked by Russian actions and threats not by the West---as it was never really on the NATO agenda until now.

Interfax from today 13:47

Russia's updated military doctrine should stipulate preemptive nuke strike - military official

[OUTLAW 09]

BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...re-363171.html

AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs …

pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.

This was being carried on the EuroMaidan site today concerning the open source analyzed Russian tank convoy--by the way the video was geo tagged as being in the Ukraine:

2014/09/02 • Featured, War in Donbas

The smoking gun: Russian column confirmed in Krasnodon

Russia has invaded Ukraine and now there is irrefutable proof. Today a Krasnodon local riding on trolleybus route Nr.1 connecting Krasnodon with Molodohvardiysk filmed a Russian mechanized column...

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...-in-krasnodon/

[OUTLAW 09]

Article concerning a new Russian website for Russian MIAs, KIAs, and WIAs in the Ukraine. The important piece of info---actually created and uploaded in Russia not from outside bloggers.

You will notice a couple of individuals listed on the site with ties to the Russian SF and or were Russian SF trainers.

http://en.inforesist.org/a-website-f...ted-in-russia/

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries still have a hard time aiming and firing accuarately the BM21s they have---hit today a Donetsk coalmine and set it on fire.

The "October" mine in #Donetsk city is burning after being hit by "Russian terrorist Grad missiles".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE1olE1RtM …

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting US comment concerning the 1997 NATO Russian Founding Act.

Philip Karber, a former senior U.S. defense official who has provided assessments of Ukraine’s military to Congress, said, “Russia occupies and incorporates Crimea, shoots down civilian aircraft, then violently invades and is destroying Ukrainian army—and we are supposed to honor a non-treaty, 15-year-old commitment? If the U.S. is playing by those kind of rules we are in much bigger trouble than we admit and our allies are doomed.”

If it had been Putin he would have already violated/ignored it---if it stopped him from his stated end goal.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

This seems to confirm the existence of mobile Russian military field crematoriums.

Seems like the Russian Army wants no existence of killed Russian soldiers to make it back to the motherland and their mothers.

This is #Russian army mobile crematorium brought to #Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6L0jiMloO8 …
http://informnapalm.org/916-armyya-rf-

[AmericanPride]

This is the "altered state of reality"---talking ceasefire to get NATO/EU to do minimum damage to their economy while driving even further into the Ukraine--all in the same breath.

How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?