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    Default Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

    Moderator's Note

    I have decided to:

    1. Close the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views) and move all August posts to here
    2. Create two threads for current matters
    3. First the fighting and military aspects - this thread
    4. Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc)
    5. The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena (ends)




    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    So - duplicity is a trait of a rogue state?
    AP---this is a good read as a beginning learner for you--even some inside Russia state close to what I am saying and I am not even Russian.

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ia/504196.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-04-2014 at 08:07 PM. Reason: Add Mod's Note

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    Outlaw - I'm still waiting on that definition of "criminal rogue state". You've implied only one characteristic (duplicity). In the international system, what makes a state "criminal" and/or "rogue"?

    Not sure how the article furthers the conversation; I've already made the argument that Russia is an empire. I'm inclined to agree with the idea that Russia is a "rogue" state in its behavior as a spoiler and its characteristics as an imperial state; but, alas, you still have not offered a definition of what actually constitutes a "rogue" state.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Yesterday must have been a very frustrating day for the Russian military leadership --several of their newest pieces of military equipment were pin point destroyed and someone passed on the targeting info for a major DPR commander who is a pure Russian military officer in the GRU.


    #Ukrainian army at #Debaltsevo captured Deputy Commander of Staff of "Donbas Republic", senior #Russian officer

    http://news.liga.net/news/politics/3...evikov_smi.htm …

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    Seems like the Russian military is no giving up on getting some satisfaction ie a victory---another elite RF Brigade is spotted via social media inside the Ukraine---ie it seems they came but have not been pulled out according to Minsk 1 and 2 agreements.

    #Recent pix: The 33rd mountain infantry brigade of the Russian Federation's armed forces is still in #Ukraine !
    https://www.facebook.com/danylyuk/posts/725650777509087
    pic.twitter.com/xBYxVOIQya

    Mercenary truck carrying both the mercenary colors and the RF colors on the cab.
    A militant truck in #donetsk yesterday
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/10-octo...etsk-yesterday
    pic.twitter.com/RZ9AnaG9w6
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-10-2014 at 10:16 AM.

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    Now even NATO is sensing a big push by Russian troops and their mercenaries--probably tied to the 14 Oct RADA vote on ditching the Ukrainian non aligned status.

    Conflict Reporter @Conflict_Report
    #BRK @NATO Dep. Sec. Gen. A. Vershbow: "There may be a serious deterioration of the situation [in eastern #Ukraine] in the coming days." ...

    The crisis in the Middle East has overshadowed, at least for now, the situation in Ukraine, There is a fragile ceasefire is in place but the violence still continues on a lower level. Could the Ukraine crisis turn into a frozen conflict?

    I think that's a serious danger right now, and I think that is what Russia is trying to do in eastern Ukraine. From our perspective at NATO, and I think this goes even beyond NATO to the EU, we are all insisting that Russia live up to every aspect of the Minsk agreement and not allow it to be implemented selectively. The ceasefire was supposed to freeze the conflict in place of positions since September 19. But of course the separatists with continuous Russian military support that is flowing across the uncontrolled international border have been escalating their attacks on the Donetsk airport.

    That is unacceptable. We need to see full implementation which includes Ukrainians getting the ability to control their own international border. Russia needs to make clear to the separatists that it does not support the elections that they are purporting to hold on November 9, which would have no legitimacy and are inconsistent with the Minsk protocol. It's a very fluid situation. The ceasefire is not holding in some areas and there could be a serious deterioration in the coming days.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-10-2014 at 10:21 AM.

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    Interesting development from Putin--

    1. is it a smokescreen in order to get his stock market and Rubel under control
    2. is it a smokescreen because he is running out of money from oil sales
    3. is it a smokescreen because he wants his French carrier
    4. is it a smokescreen because actually his new UW military strategy failed because of moves by the Ukrainians to counter it militarily

    OR is it exactly as this blog indicate--only temporary in order to gain time because he can move back in any time he wants to?

    BUT notice not a single word was wasted on bringing out the Russian troops still inside the Ukraine.

    Of course, one should never underestimate Putin's strategic thinking. May actually pullback troops (temporarily) to buy 'goodwill' & time.

    No one should be getting excited or feeling optimistic about the news that Putin ordered troops home from "exercises in Rostov region."


    BUT THEN is still going on--so really is it simply a smokescreen after all?

    Please don't forget that Russia is still attacking Donetsk airport on a daily basis.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...e-not-met.html
    pic.twitter.com/PzUpF1q6x6

    Sadly, barely a mention in the media that Putin is now moving Nuclear weaponry into Crimea.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-12-2014 at 07:56 AM.

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    ss again if one judges Russian actions by their own words--Putin orders troops back to their bases but basically ignores these inside the Ukraine.

    AND then yesterday Russian places roadblocks in the way of the very OSCE they pushed to monitor the "ceasefire".

    Russia May Block Use of Drones To Monitor Ceasefire

    17:47 (GMT)

    Literally every day since the ceasefire was negotiated over one month ago it has been broken by Russian-backed separatists. The whole world is watching, and doing little to nothing, as the international airport in Donetsk, which has always been under the Ukrainian government's control, is attacked every day by Russian-backed militants. The Interpreter has documented many instances of separatist attacks killing civilians. The surrounded Ukrainian troops have desperately fired back. This week, evidence suggests that both Ukrainian and separatist rockets killed civilians in part of Donetsk.

    Ukrainian President Poroshenko also warned that without a significant ramp-up of OSCE monitors, there was no way that the ceasefire could be properly monitored by the international community. According to Poroshenko, there are currently 270 OSCE monitors, only 90 of which are in eastern Ukraine, and there would have to be at least 1,500 to properly ensure all sides were complying with the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland said that the ceasefire was being broken, and as long as that was the case the monitoring mission could not even occur, a statement that lives in the kind of diplomatic paradox which we have come to expect by watching this crisis unfold.

    Germany and France have pledged to use drones to help monitor the ceasefire, but even those plans face substantial resistance from Russia. The Wall Street Journal reports:

    German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Friday that his government had submitted a proposal a day earlier that would allow for two drones to be in the air at all times to observe the truce between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia rebels.

    But it was unclear whether the plan was viable, Mr. Steinmeier said, since both Berlin and Paris also want to send armed personnel to provide security for the teams operating the drones—a deployment that could prompt objections from Moscow and faces a possible legislative hurdle in Kiev. (More: Russian Rock Stars Run Afoul of Kremlin Over Ukraine)

    “I don’t want to hide the fact that political and legal questions must still be resolved,” Mr. Steinmeier said.

    This is the situation in which Ukraine has been stuck for the last month and a half. With conflicts raging in the Middle East, with ebola outbreaks in West Africa and, on occasion, elsewhere, and with American mid-term election season in full swing, the harsh reality of Ukraine is simply not catching the attention of Western people, Western media, or, as a result, Western leaders.

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    Appears that the Russian announcement to pull back troops to their home bases was actually a "smokescreen".

    Here is the more honest reason.

    Putin orders 17,600 troops "on training" in Rostov region nr Ukraine border to pullback, return to base. Why? October conscription rotation!

    What is more interesting are the "contract Russian troops" since their "contracts expire mid November " and winter is coming.

    There are some that are saying Putin is lulling the western media and leadership as the units are being swapped out have been scheduled for "winter training"--wonder where?

    October is conscription cohort demob and replenish time. Expect 17.000 fresh troops back in Rostov for winter training
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-12-2014 at 11:10 AM.

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    firn---a number of typical examples of events in the last 24 hours that indicate that the "frozen state" does not exist in the Donbas.

    None of this occurred after the Russians took over control of the Moldavian and Georgian enclaves.

    Something about #Russia'n #fascism: Ukrainian books burned in Simferopol.
    pic.twitter.com/boBZLOTZoL

    #BreakingFootage Russian invaders use their newest toy vs. Ukrainian cities.
    The 2A65 Msta-B.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgAoJEdN2xw

    (Added by Moderator:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/152_mm_howitzer_2A65 )


    "The supply and price of Russian #gas has been part of [the Ukrainian] crisis from the start": BBC's @paulkirbyuk http://bbc.in/101jkBE

    #BreakingNews Russian offensive in northern #Luhansk oblast continue, both outside the defined "ATO" zone
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-16-2014 at 11:54 AM. Reason: Add explanatory link re gun.

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    Russia announces pullback of troops with a big fan fare of press releases.

    Two days later Merkel announces she does not tend to believe it and then from NATO---all the announcement was just to influence the Milan meetings and nothing more than a smokescreen.

    NOW---Russia is lifting the food ban on butter and cheese from the EU---so an admission of a ban failure on their part? Kind of reminds me of the soviet purchase of 2000 tons of butter from the EU in 1972 and then proclaims a great Soviet collective farms milk production year the same year as the butter purchases.

    BREAKING #Russia has lifted ban on cheese & butter from #European Union. Very covertly, w/o much fuss & PR statements

    Russian troops withdrawing from Rostov? NATO Commander Europe Gen @PMBreedlove has seen no "major movement" so far.
    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10...thdrawal-from/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-16-2014 at 08:57 AM.

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    as usual Russia issues press releases and more threat towards the US and the fighting still goes on all the while blaming it on the Ukrainians---the usual standard "it ain't me" approach to international affairs by Russia.

    #Putin threatens West not to put pressure on #Russia over #Ukraine, or else, mentions nuclear arsenal again.

    Putin warns U.S. spat between nuclear powers over Ukraine crisis threatens global stability:

    http://reut.rs/1u6fz5e
    pic.twitter.com/HeIwM5870g

    In #Komsomolske, Donetsk region, #Ukraine DRG liquidated in abandoned foundry storage up to 10 #Russian terrorist howitzers & GRAD vehicles.

    BREAKING Via #Rovenky to #Donetsk #Russian army vehicles are constantly driving. One of the vehicle black number plate was Р1 010 РФ АМУР.

    #BREAKINGNEWS Russian invasion forces intensify their offensive towards Lysichiansk, attacking 5 Ukr-held villages.

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    There has been multiple reports of infighting between the various Russian mercenary groups and even between them and the Russia troops.


    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua

    "LPR" organization continue clashes with 'kossacks" for the territory and conflicts with "DPR" over resources, provided by Russia

    Appears now the Russian military is sending in GRU units to take are of the problems.

    BREAKING Last night in #Gluhovskiy forest, #Torez region, two #Russian helis landed #GRU units there.Some say for cleansing of insubordinate
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-16-2014 at 10:42 AM.

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    A secondary effect of the Russian attack on the Ukraine--the Russian Army is in full swing of testing all their latest weapon systems and the West seems to be totally ignorant of it.

    BREAKING #Russian army brought to #Donetsk MRLS ТОС-1А «Солнцепек». (TOS-1 "Suncooker")

    pic.twitter.com/0jgvmacZTa

    AND Russia is really "pulling" back it's troops?

    AND the fighting just keeps on going--even when Russia and their mercenaries claim there is a ceasefire and they are observing it.

    Ukrainian forces find ready to use SA-16 #Igla in northern #Luhansk oblast.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFbBkuqT0PY

    This 18 years old kid #Russian terrorist came to kill #Ukrainians & on Oct 10 ceased to exist.
    http://rustelegraph.ru/news/2014-10-...Donbass-20466/
    pic.twitter.com/24MPVbZwo1

    Listen in to fighting in #Debaltseve today. Nonstop under Russian attack.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtJ1LG1mRbw
    #UkraineUnderAttack
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-16-2014 at 03:42 PM.

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    This maybe why the Russian Army lost a GRU recon team along with a General of theirs---THIS has never been reported in western media and it goes to the concept that the Russians were in fact "suckered in". It seems the Russian SF/GRU units are having a difficult time of it in the occupied areas of the Donbas.

    It appears the Ukrainians seem to be able to identify and locate those teams before they make it into Ukrainian controlled territory--someone is passing excellent info on them.

    Right now there is an estimate 4500 killed Russian troops---wounded go as well into the thousands and the MIA--absolutely no idea.

    BUT the number of captured---this is interesting.

    Security Service of #Ukraine released 16 out of 131 Russian soldiers to relatives (in fact, exchanged them for #Ukrainians) - aide Lubkivsky

    In fact the Ukrainian military has setup a hotline for Russian families to call to see if the Ukrainian military has any information on their relatives.

    Relatives of Russian servicemen call Ukrainian hotline for help

    http://uatoday.tv/politics/relatives...lp-374202.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-16-2014 at 04:23 PM.

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    Who says open source social media types cannot beat the work done by the US IC.

    Gen. Breedlove with a shout-out to @bellingcat https://twitter.com/PMBreedlove/stat...627018242?s=09 …

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    #Breaking
    130 Russian soldiers, 4 tanks, 6 trucks, 6 D-30 guns and a mortar batteries arrived in #Bezimenne today. - Regiment #Azov

    Security Service of Ukraine claimed that shooting of people at Maidan conducted by Putin's ally Vladislav Surkov http://empr.media/news/security-serv...ings-at-maidan …

    LPR LEADER PLOTNITSKY, UKRAINIAN GENERAL ROZMAZNIN SIGN PLAN FOR HARDWARE WITHDRWAL FROM CONTACT LINE - INTERFAX

    Kremlin infowar 101: #1 Show us proof! #2 That's not proof! #3 It's something else. #4 It's what you think - glory to Russia! #5 Bad USA!

    Russian army tanks back to #Donetsk after #Debaltseve http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/20-febr...ter-debaltseve … pic.twitter.com/nXK16Rds9Y

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    After reading the NSCs NSS on Russia--just what was and or is the US strategy again?

    Seems the military get's it but does the WH and the NSC?

    NATO top military commander Breedlove did not think the truce had ever even begun. "It is a cease-fire in name only," http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../26858238.html

    .@Martin_Dempsey: Russia "lit a fire of ethnicity & nationalism that actually threatens to burn out of control" http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128209

    Chair @thejointstaff Gen. @Martin_Dempsey: Russia's actions "are threatening our NATO allies" http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128209pic.twitter.com/yl5tZwHaRP
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-20-2015 at 06:32 PM.

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    Seems that Merkel and Hollande must be in an "altered state of reality" when they pushed for Minsk 2---more civilians and Ukrainian military have been killed since that agreement than before the agreement and Russia is still not implementing their portion of the deal.

    "Russian newspaper reports Russian regular troops captured Debaltseve" So how's that "Separatist forces" thing going? http://www.unian.info/war/1046595-ru...ebaltseve.html

    #Hollande: "There is danger of further escalation of conflict in eastern #Ukraine

    @MoscowTimes Merkel Threatens New Sanctions if Peace Deal in Eastern Ukraine Not Upheld http://tmt-go.ru/516305

    Laugh or cry? "We are not thinking of further sanctions now, we want Minsk II to be implemented" – Merkel

    U.S. provided satellite evidence, even the Chamberlains in EU talked about Russian forces for the first time. No, "rebels" took #Debaltseve.

    NATO top military commander Breedlove did not think the truce had ever even begun. "It is a cease-fire in name only," http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../26858238.html

    .@Martin_Dempsey: Russia "lit a fire of ethnicity & nationalism that actually threatens to burn out of control" http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128209

    Chair @thejointstaff Gen. @Martin_Dempsey: Russia's actions "are threatening our NATO allies" http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128209 … pic.twitter.com/yl5tZwHaRP
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-20-2015 at 06:34 PM.

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    Novoazovsk - the last time Ukraine reported this much armor crossing here Mariupol nearly fell in what we call "Russian Invasion 1"

    Zbigniew Brzezinski ✔ @zbig
    Shooting themselves in the head? Putin and Yanukovich are producing a generation of Ukrainians who will passionately hate Russia

    What a surprise. Russians will continue their attack from Debaltseve towards Artemivsk https://twitter.com/KFM936/status/568696362117820417 …

    SBU detained Russian spy in Odessa http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/20-febr...-spy-in-odessa … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Ix4uvf7zp0

    ATGM guided at #Russia|n AFV in #Donetsk airport http://youtu.be/tBi-fmudCRA

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    #Gazprom starts direct gas supplies to DPR, LPR in violation of contract - http://belsat.eu/en/articles/gazprom...tract-ukraine/ …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51h-EIfoQrE … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d-WNI5sG_0 … How #Ukrainians, #Russians treat each other's POWs in #Debaltseve. pic.twitter.com/5L833197KQ

    #DPR already cries about #Poroschenko's measures to counter #Russia|n threat, says it violates #Minsk agreement, plans to appeal #OSCE and the leaders of Russia, France and Germany

    Aftermath of a large battle between #Mius and #Chernukhyne.
    Massive destruction (Ukr+Rus equip.)
    pic.twitter.com/kE8j4oDr3F

    Ukraine has closed 23 checkpoints on the border with Russia http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/20-febr...-on-the-border …

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