Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[carl]

So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

[AmericanPride]

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

Sure - conflicts aren't resolved in one sitting. That the Ukrainian and Russian governments are coming together to initiate talks is a good indicator that both sides prefer a negotiated settlement than continuing with Clausewitz's reciprocal actions until one or the other is destroyed. At some point, they will come to terms, whatever they determine those terms to be.

An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things.

Probably. The problem is that the Russians are in a position where they can continue escalating the conflict with minimal internal costs.

But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

No - but he could probably double the amount of Russian soliders operating in Ukraine.

And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed.

Interesting you should say that and then also claim that Russian state control of the media distorts the public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. So how do you reconcile those two points?

But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

Things change for who?

[davidbfpo]

A group of Anglo-American retired diplomats, with experience of serving in the former USSR, have a short article in National Interest and it ends with:

...Western leaders should not shrink from employing all of their available tools to increase the incentive to Moscow to pursue a negotiated settlement.

Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...-ukraine-11135

[OUTLAW 09]

A group of Anglo-American retired diplomats, with experience of serving in the former USSR, have a short article in National Interest and it ends with:
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...-ukraine-11135

David---key sentence is here:

In addition to a lack of good-faith participation by Russia, the negotiations have three structural weaknesses: the exclusion of key actors, the narrow scope of the talks and the illogic of pursuing a cease-fire.

There was some interesting comments being made around the bloggers yesterday to this.

There has been a lack of good faith participation by Russia for the simply reason they assume they will win in the end due to their being currently in a phase six of their New Generation Warfare and the West still outside of sanctions has not responded--coupled with the simple fact that since the Russian military has now fully engaged inside the Ukraine they cannot simply pull back as that would be assumed in their eyes and in the eyes of the hardliners as a "defeat". and sine 1945 they have not suffered a defeat---even AFG was spun to be a win.

A defeat is not in the cards as long as the Russian military has it's say in the decision making.

What is not mentioned in the article is how do you negotiate when in fact there are four groups of decision makers in the game---the military, the security services, the oligarchs, and the Russian mob---Putin is just a meditator among them all who has been great at balancing them and driving them forward. Notice all his former liberal tending advisors are not longer around him--all hardliners driven by a hatred of the West and western values.

Also not mentioned in the article---how does the West negotiate when in fact the core driver ethno nationalist imperialism built on a perceived failure by the last Communist leaders is not being addressed inside Russia itself.

Just as in the Sunni/Shia clash until that single driver is fully addressed and worked out internally Russia will remain aggressive in their belief the West is responsible for everything.

One needs to fully understand what is driving Putin and company and we in the West seem to not to want to address that as many feel nationalism under any flag died in 1994 but 20 years later it seems to be still there.

Noticed also a failure in the article to discuss what I feel is the core underlining fact for Putin and company---the 23.8.1939 secret agreement where Stalin virtually annexed five countries--even in Russia this annexation is still being denied for what it was--a blatant land grab not a merging of brotherly communists who wanted to join the SU.

Notice the countries "given to Stalin" and where Russia is pushing now--therein lies for Putin his current legitimacy as he "feels" he is channeling Stalin these days in the revival of the former SU that he has been driving since 1999 if one really goes back and reads all his interviews over the years--it is there to be read---we Americans and many Europeans simply do not take the time.

He is easy to understand--but one must read as it is all there and open source.

Still surprised how little history seems to be considered in the current thread --it is as if the statement one must learn from history is not fashionable these days?

NOTE: There is something more critical that many are not following--when the authors state about NATO and revitalization and potentially moving new bases in and around say the Baltics and Bulgaria---notice how suddenly Germany states no and references the 4 plus 2 agreements.

Really read those agreements and one will then fully understands just where the German politics with Russia go.

A really small comment that was fully over looked was made by Putin in his Duma speech which is one of the most important articles to read if one wants to understand the current events.

Putin quietly stated ---remember Germany we were the ones who allowed and supported your reunification efforts--which if one is honest and correctly looks at western leader statements to include the US---the west was not all that hep to support German reunification.

He used this comment in conjunction on his explanation of the why the Crimea was to be returned to Russia ie similar to German reunification.

[OUTLAW 09]

BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.

If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.

I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia continues to play the game of no I am not sending in troops, artillery and heavy weapons plus SAMs.

And what is the West's response---silence if you ask me.

And some commenters believe one can currently negotiate with Putin? He only understands the use of force and or the pain of a financial disaster and he is trying to get facts on the ground for hbis Tuesday meeting before his economy collapses and he has to explain that to his population.

Russian MP Ilya Drozdov: "The sooner the bastardly entity called Ukraine is wiped off the map, the better". pic.twitter.com/tgIOUgLcsx

Battalions "#Donbas", "#Dnepr" & #UA in #Ilovaisk say shelled by #Russian army professionals - 3-4 rounds every 30 sec. 3 WIA, 1 KIA.

Tymchuk: Russian BM-27 Uragan self-propelled rocket launchers fired into #Ukraine from #Russia hitting Kuteinykove, near #Ilovaisk, #Donetsk

A significant increase of Russian mercenaries, so called "Kadyrov Chechens" in particular, is indicated in Horlivka

In #Amvrosiyivka #Russia's soldiers without insignia spotted, 250 armored vehicles built up for a possible attack on #Mariupol, #Novoazovsk

Novoazovsk to Mariupol southern corridor; Sea of Azov (Taganrog Bay, Tahanrozka Gulf) subject to increased Russian drone surveillance #intel

There is a report that the Russian army has moved 250+ armored vehicles & artillery pieces into Amvrosiivka #Ukraine http://news.liga.net/news/politics/3..._istochnik.htm …

Separatists took the district capital of #Telmanove, #Donetsk region, under control overnight, had been shelling #Novoazovsk border point

#Amvrosiyivka, occupied #Ukraine: 250 #Russia armour and soldiers ammassing for pushing deeper into #Ukraine, poss. to attack #Mariupol

[OUTLAW 09]

Even the Russian are getting nervous:

Rostov on the Don airport ordered to evacuation immediately.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvzFbm3IUAAfTDD.png:large

[OUTLAW 09]

BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.

If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.

I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.

BW--there has been for about three days constant blogging about Russian troops crossing over in large numbers also from the southern border area/

Yes the Ukrainians are killing large numbers but more seem to be coming over.

Then this came up this evening from a site that I have been watching and attempts to present a balance.

Maybe this is why the US is not saying a single word from the intel side.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...n-russian.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the aid convoy there has been an increase in new Russian weapons seen in the Ukraine.

Here are two more that have never been seen outside of the RF and were rumored to be in development---seems they are out of the development stage.

#Russia may be testing in #Ukraine new guided missiles Pantsir and Hermes.

https://twitter.com/RutheniaRus/stat...627264/photo/1

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/300878.html

[carl]

Sure - conflicts aren't resolved in one sitting. That the Ukrainian and Russian governments are coming together to initiate talks is a good indicator that both sides prefer a negotiated settlement than continuing with Clausewitz's reciprocal actions until one or the other is destroyed. At some point, they will come to terms, whatever they determine those terms to be.

Probably. The problem is that the Russians are in a position where they can continue escalating the conflict with minimal internal costs.

No - but he could probably double the amount of Russian soliders operating in Ukraine.

Interesting you should say that and then also claim that Russian state control of the media distorts the public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. So how do you reconcile those two points?

Things change for who?

A KGB guy initiating talks is not a good indicator that said KGB guy prefers a negotiated settlement, unless that settlement is to discuss surrender terms. But maybe the world has changed....no, it hasn't.

They can escalate only at the cost of committing the regular military and that has a very definite internal cost. There are only so many forces available, not to mention those filled body bags going east.

I don't remember claiming media distorts the Russian public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. But there are many things I forget. But it does, that is true. But it is true also that they can only hide so much. When those body bags start coming home people are going to start talking amongst each other and amongst each other and the gloriousness of the endeavor may begin to fade. King Vlad may not look so good then

Like I said before, if all you are going to think about is what he can do to you, you won't win. You want to win? It is best to follow Grant's advice.