Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries still have a hard time aiming and firing accuarately the BM21s they have---hit today a Donetsk coalmine and set it on fire.

The "October" mine in #Donetsk city is burning after being hit by "Russian terrorist Grad missiles".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE1olE1RtM …

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting US comment concerning the 1997 NATO Russian Founding Act.

Philip Karber, a former senior U.S. defense official who has provided assessments of Ukraine’s military to Congress, said, “Russia occupies and incorporates Crimea, shoots down civilian aircraft, then violently invades and is destroying Ukrainian army—and we are supposed to honor a non-treaty, 15-year-old commitment? If the U.S. is playing by those kind of rules we are in much bigger trouble than we admit and our allies are doomed.”

If it had been Putin he would have already violated/ignored it---if it stopped him from his stated end goal.

[OUTLAW 09]

This chart accurately depicts if one takes all Russian/Putin statements since before the Crimea and his latest New Russia statements as to what his end state is for south/eastern Ukraine.

(Pro-)#Russian territorial aspirations. Everything right of and under the red line.
pic.twitter.com/z8zI181GMd

https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/s...982144/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Social media analyst types are now branching out and searching Russian social media and finding some interesting information.

Here is a picture of a Russian military member on the left and he again in a Berkut Special Police uniform on the Maidan.

Begs the question just how involved were the Russian GRU and Russian military in countering physically the Maidan on Ukrainian soil?

I posted a link to a Russian Navy SEAL who had been in the Ukraine in Feb 2014.

If you wondered, who killed people on #Euromaidan: soldiers from #Russia in #Ukraine uniform!

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...72131424063488 … pic.twitter.com/KZK9ARCrd1

The Russian soldier in the picture was recently captured and sent back seriously wounded to Rostov by the Ukrainian Army thus his picture was used to match other social media inputs.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another indicator that the Ukrainian Army is shifting tactics---and going to guerrilla warfare concept--their SF have already moved into that mode.

#Ukrainian Army HQ plans to establish partisan movement. Partisan units commanders r already defined, NSC spox

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/1/7036468/ … |EMPR

[carl]

Another indicator that the Ukrainian Army is shifting tactics---and going to guerrilla warfare concept--their SF have already moved into that mode.

It seems from my mostly uniformed forever a civilian perspective, a definition of 'happy hunting ground' might include SF being let loose upon Russian supply columns manned by conscripts.

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw,

If Putin wanted to annex eastern Ukraine, he would have seized it when Russia seized Crimea. He would have accepted, not rejected, the Donetsk petition for annexation. And he certainly would not have financed a protracted and destructive conflict that will cost billions in reconstruction for a Russian economy that has many of its own problems already. Moscow does not want to annex eastern Ukraine - it wants to weaken Ukraine and obstruct its participation in Western economic, security, and political institutions in order to create space between Russia and NATO.

Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.

The Ukraine government does not have the strength to sustain a protracted conflict, especially one that Moscow can unilaterally escalate. Rebuilding the political structures in the eastern regions will be difficult for Kiev already, on top of the economic reconstruction necessary, and the continued threat of Russian interference. How will Kiev manage the demobilization of the militants and incorporate them into the political process? How will Kiev finance reconstruction, and under what conditions will the West extend more loans for it? Can Russia be expected to offer loans for reconstruction and what will be the political price for that support? In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

[Firn]

Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.

I hope that such an agreement takes place quickly although I'm doubtful to say the least. So far Putin has often 'de-escalated' - and escalated in words only to push hard in a single direction when it came to facts. We will see.

In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

My take is that Russia is fighting a losing battle in the long term if the EU and the USA are not too mild with their sanctions and not too weak with their (mostly economic) support. In fact Russia has already lost a huge deal, less then the target of it's aggression of course but far more then the Western world. War is generally a loss for the countries involved, for some more and for some less. Sanctions are quite similar as they disrupt free trade. Sadly in quite a few occasions letting an aggressor continue does offer still worse choices.

I'm pretty sure nobody knows exactly what will happen in the next days, weeks, months or years. Lots of wars were started with the illusion of a relatively quick and bloodless victory, just like this one as I suppose. In quite a few cases those became very costly for the invader, eroding the will of the population. Propaganda helps to support the political goals of the leadership, but it has limits as history has shown.

In the meantime the German government has given the go-ahead for 20.000 protective vests. Merkel had promised at a CDU meeting to take personally care of their delivery. I have of course no idea how quickly they will reach the Ukrainian troops...

[davidbfpo]

Yes finally Russain actions in the Ukraine have led to the amphibious ship order being delayed:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29052599

I just hope the near-completed ship is disabled and guarded - after all the Israelis spirited away a number of missile boats from a French dockyard years ago:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Project

[AmericanPride]

hope that such an agreement takes place quickly although I'm doubtful to say the least. So far Putin has often 'de-escalated' - and escalated in words only to push hard in a single direction when it came to facts. We will see.

I agree - the Russians typically drive a hard bargain at the negotiating table. But I also think the window of opportunity is closing for both Moscow and Kiev. The offensive by the Ukrainian Army demonstrated the weakness of the insurgency and prompted Russia's committment to escalate. That can only be done so many times and sustained for so long before the political and economic consequences start to overtake the value of intervening in the first place.

Also - there's the question of what are Russia's intentions? If the goal is to weaken the political stability of Ukraine, this is essentially mission accomplished.

My take is that Russia is fighting a losing battle in the long term if the EU and the USA are not too mild with their sanctions and not too weak with their (mostly economic) support.

I think this is a complex question once we start expanding the scope of consideration beyond Ukraine-Russia relations. I don't think the sanctions are compelling the Russians to come to the table - I think it's their recognition that they've achieved a good portion of the goals, and a good deal now is better than holding out for a perfect deal later. There's a decreasing return on investment the longer the intervention continues. And the Russians aren't typically ones to fret too much about spilled milk and the loss of good will when it comes to preserving their perceived core interests. Ukraine is going to need alot of help in the near future and by necessity, Russia will probably play a role in that - and I think that's exactly what the Russians want.

The question I'm concerned about: what's in it for the U.S.? The U.S. can afford to be bellicose in its rhetoric: (1) it doesn't cost anything, (2) it signals to domestic and international audiences that the U.S. is serious, and (3) the U.S. does not have to live with the threat of a potential Russian invasion. Hence - the willingness of Kiev, Berlin, etc to talk with Moscow. But can the U.S. afford to undermine an agreement between Kiev and Moscow, even if that agreement appears to favor Russia?

[carl]

So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

[AmericanPride]

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

This is true - and it's going to be a major problem for the Kiev government. All of the fighting, deaths, and destruction of property has occurred in the east; regions already dissatisfied with the central government. Will the population blame the Russians or the government in Kiev for their circumstances? How will Kiev treat the political opposition and the demobilization of the armed militants? How will Kiev regulate the operations of pro-government militias and their treatment of the population?

[Bill Moore]

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

This isn't as true when states fight a so called regular war. These types of wars are mostly determined in the military domain, and once one side's military is defeated or realizes it can't win they can sue for peace. Most recent example for the U.S. was DESERT STORM. On the other hand, when it is a war amongst people, even if a state actor serves as a van guard that mobilizes the people and to some extent is directing the effort, it is very hard to bring this type of war to an acceptable end for both parties. They then to drag on for many years. Again, this is why I think we should be increasingly hesitant to employ UW as a course of action just because it is expedient. There are certainly times when it is the best course of action to pursue, but it seems that lately, O.K. since Ike was President, we opted for this form of warfare due to the perceived costs and political risks being low. Yet the moral and political costs are normally higher than we anticipated.

I can't see this approach working out well for either the Russians or Ukraine. I certainly don't see a better peace on the horizon. The Russians may have masterly used UW as an operational approach to achieve their objective, but I suspect they're questioning if it was the best way to achieve to their political object based on the second and third order effects. Only time will tell.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

This seems to confirm the existence of mobile Russian military field crematoriums.

Seems like the Russian Army wants no existence of killed Russian soldiers to make it back to the motherland and their mothers.

This is #Russian army mobile crematorium brought to #Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6L0jiMloO8 …
http://informnapalm.org/916-armyya-rf-

[AmericanPride]

This is the "altered state of reality"---talking ceasefire to get NATO/EU to do minimum damage to their economy while driving even further into the Ukraine--all in the same breath.

How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?

[OUTLAW 09]

How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?

Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?

Here is the current "realpolitik" that does not makes sense;

1. if the fighting has died down as the UA and independent BNs have all but pulled back as to not be encircled---then why the increased numbers of wounded and killed coming in---who is then doing the fighting?

Someone or something is causing a high rate of sudden causalities and it is not the Ukrainian Army---rumors have it as Ukrainian SF strikes against lone units not anticipating guerilla style raids.

BREAKING Since 11:00 fr #Mariupol to #Donetsk hospital local emergency brigades are on constant back-and-forth trips. Seems terrs die easily

2. if the Russian Army/Russian separatists are so well liked in eastern Ukraine then why do Russian troops at a Luhansk CPs ask those that are leaving to stay and they will get jobs?

Does that make sense to you and that is another example of "altered state of reality". At the height of the separatist movement Girkin was openly complaining he could not get more than 1000 Ukrainians to fight with him in the separatist movement--thus the heavy reliance on Russian mercenaries and now Russian troops.

BREAKING #Luhansk CPs are openly manned w #Russian army soldiers. Ask ppl not to leave the city. Promise jobs.

"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy--this ties into the Russian strategy of "believing one's own propaganda"---always a great idea.

Let's see;

1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months/years to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do

2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army has to be explained away as what a separatist strategy in largely ethnic Russian area?

3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there

4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear and UW threats---great move there as well

5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move

6. if destroying your own economy is a strategy---massive more on that strategy

7. having your banking system come to a stand still is what---worth it all?

8. having the Gazprom delivery contracts openly challenged in court--great move there as well

So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy---all I see is stupidity caused by an altered state of believing one's own propaganda.

[OUTLAW 09]

Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?

Here is the current "realpolitik" that does not makes sense;

1. if the fighting has died down as the UA and independent BNs have all but pulled back as to not be encircled---then why the increased numbers of wounded and killed coming in---who is then doing the fighting?

Someone or something is causing a high rate of sudden causalities and it is not the Ukrainian Army---rumors have it as Ukrainian SF strikes against lone units not anticipating guerilla style raids.

BREAKING Since 11:00 fr #Mariupol to #Donetsk hospital local emergency brigades are on constant back-and-forth trips. Seems terrs die easily

AP--another set of reasons for high losses:

2. if the Russian Army/Russian separatists are so well liked in eastern Ukraine then why do Russian troops at a Luhansk CPs ask those that are leaving to stay and they will get jobs?

Does that make sense to you and that is another example of "altered state of reality". At the height of the separatist movement Girkin was openly complaining he could not get more than 1000 Ukrainians to fight with him in the separatist movement--thus the heavy reliance on Russian mercenaries and now Russian troops.

BREAKING #Luhansk CPs are openly manned w #Russian army soldiers. Ask ppl not to leave the city. Promise jobs.

"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy--this ties into the Russian strategy of "believing one's own propaganda"---always a great idea.

Let's see;

1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months/years to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do

2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army has to be explained away as what a separatist strategy in largely ethnic Russian area?

3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there

4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear and UW threats---great move there as well

5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move

6. if destroying your own economy is a strategy---massive more on that strategy

7. having your banking system come to a stand still is what---worth it all?

8. having the Gazprom delivery contracts openly challenged in court--great move there as well

So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy---all I see is stupidity caused by an altered state of believing one's own propaganda.

AP--here is a partial answer to the high rate of losses and wounded on the Russian side--the reports of this particular battle indicated from Russian propaganda side a humiliating loss for the Ukrainians and Russian TV was there live---then this today.

BREAKING Reports coming@ #Ilovaisk fields are littered w bodies of tank &scout unit fr #RUS 9th Vislenskaya SOF ОМСБр
pic.twitter.com/

More losses to explain the high rates:

BREAKING Today fr #Ilovaisk 800 dead bodies of #Russian army VDV soldiers has been collected. This was suppose to have been a major defeat for the Ukrainians--they had only 100 KIAs and 120 POWs

In this week alone 30 #Russian army soldiers fr #Kostroma got killed in war activities in #Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--here is a partial answer to the high rate of losses and wounded on the Russian side--the reports of this particular battle indicated from Russian propaganda side a humiliating loss for the Ukrainians and Russian TV was there live---then this today.

BREAKING Reports coming@ #Ilovaisk fields are littered w bodies of tank &scout unit fr #RUS 9th Vislenskaya SOF ОМСБр
pic.twitter.com/

More losses to explain the high rates:

BREAKING Today fr #Ilovaisk 800 dead bodies of #Russian army VDV soldiers has been collected. This was suppose to have been a major defeat for the Ukrainians--they had only 100 KIAs and 120 POWs

In this week alone 30 #Russian army soldiers fr #Kostroma got killed in war activities in #Ukraine

AP--see this is why you do not know what is going on inside the combat zones---right now there is a brutal Ukrainian SF guerrilla war--ie ambushing on lone Russian units as they are not massed as they would normally be in a more conventional war with tank on tank but rather spread out across the countryside.

Especially their fuel trucks and supply convoys.

Video: #Russian army vehicles burning bright @ #Mariupol on September 4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHYuhOCzA …

[AmericanPride]

AP--see this is why you do not know what is going on inside the combat zones---right now there is a brutal Ukrainian SF guerrilla war--ie ambushing on lone Russian units as they are not massed as they would normally be in a more conventional war with tank on tank but rather spread out across the countryside.

Especially their fuel trucks and supply convoys.

Video: #Russian army vehicles burning bright @ #Mariupol on September 4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHYuhOCzA …

That's great. Please elaborate on how that's relevant to terminating the conflict and shaping the political outcome. You know, like you predicted with the downing of the Malaysian airliner...