Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[Dayuhan]

someone who understands fleas.

Practical lessons of third world living...

Obama summed it up in the last couple of days outside of oil/gas as a second rate developing country who has nuclear weapons so just really what is the need of Russia for the rest of the global market place and or global political arena? Think about it for a moment if Russia did not have nuclear weapons would we be really all that concerned?

From a US perspective, we need the Russians to keep selling oil, because they sell quite a bit of it and if they stop or slow down significantly the world price will escalate tremendously, which would hurt the US.

We could live with a drop in gas sales (gas and oil price patterns are quite different), but we need them to keep selling oil.

We also need them to not start a nuclear war, for obvious reasons.

We want them to stop manipulating and invading their neighbors. We also want them to get their criminal organizations under control, bring trade practices into synch with the developed world, be nicer to homosexuals, etc.

Need and want are of course two very different things. Things you want and things you need are both goals, but they vary in priority and negotiability.

Clarifying goals is a good start, but it also helps to have a realistic and practical plan for achieving the goals.

I have written here often that they are four general legs of power---the following is a far better discussion of the inside groups that control the former Soviet Union ---the West really needs to understand them in light of what is going on in the Crimea and Ukraine.

I think we're all aware that the internal power dynamics of Russia are different from those in the West, and of the four pillars you speak of... but again, what specific policy options do you suggest for responding to or managing that internal situation?

Once in agreement that 1) Russia is a second rate developing country and 2) has developed some rather strange nuclear strike thoughts then we can discuss what should be done.

I agree that Russia is by most metrics a "second rate developing country" and that the Russian government's thoughts on quite a few subjects seem strange to Americans... so what do you, as an expert on the subject, propose that the US do about it?

If you really look at it from that perspective then understanding what to do is easy---what is difficult is understanding who to deal with inside the former and still Soviet Union.

Ok, so tell us what you think we should do. If "understanding what to do is easy" it shouldn't be difficult.

The latest round of sanctions has hurt regardless of what Putin is telling his population and the Russia western sanctions are a farce---especially when they are stopping items like fruit, milk, pork and chicken which is now in short supply across all of Russia driving prices higher for the average Russian, and the bank sanctions have driven private credit interest to now 22%.

Yes, there is evidence that sanctions have hurt. The question is how people will respond. Will they blame Putin and start grumbling that this Ukraine affair is not worth the price, or will they blame the West and rally behind Putin? Probably a bit of both, at least initially, but which will emerge as the primary response? Perhaps more important, how much pressure will (or can) the oligarchs bring to bear to get Putin to back off and place their economic interests above the political goals in the Ukraine?

So your solutions it to plunge a nuclear power into economic chaos?

I don't think "economic chaos" is the goal of sanctions, and it would take much more aggressive sanctions to even come close to that outcome. The goal appears to be more modest: to impose enough economic pain on the oligarchs that they will pressure Putin to revise his policies. Stretching that to "economic chaos" is somewhat over the top.

Economic sanctions may not be an ideal response, but what are the options? No response at all would only encourage and complicate further land grabs and make response to those more difficult, and the non-economic response options are risky, impractical, and generally unappealing, unless you have a proposal I haven't seen.

I am starting to suspect that your position is less concerned with Ukraine's territorial integrity and more with punishing Russia for diverting from your perception that it ought to stay within the nice political and moral lines you have drawn for it.

Are the "political and moral" lines involved specific to Russia in any way?

And, because it's irresistible...

Originally Posted by Outlaw

Right now Russia is in fact a rouge country regardless of how one wants to define rouge.

rouge1
ro͞oZH/
noun

1. a red powder or cream used as a cosmetic for coloring the cheeks or lips.

But on the bright side, if it gets out that Putin is using the stuff, his reputation will be shot forever...