Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[Bill Moore]

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

This isn't as true when states fight a so called regular war. These types of wars are mostly determined in the military domain, and once one side's military is defeated or realizes it can't win they can sue for peace. Most recent example for the U.S. was DESERT STORM. On the other hand, when it is a war amongst people, even if a state actor serves as a van guard that mobilizes the people and to some extent is directing the effort, it is very hard to bring this type of war to an acceptable end for both parties. They then to drag on for many years. Again, this is why I think we should be increasingly hesitant to employ UW as a course of action just because it is expedient. There are certainly times when it is the best course of action to pursue, but it seems that lately, O.K. since Ike was President, we opted for this form of warfare due to the perceived costs and political risks being low. Yet the moral and political costs are normally higher than we anticipated.

I can't see this approach working out well for either the Russians or Ukraine. I certainly don't see a better peace on the horizon. The Russians may have masterly used UW as an operational approach to achieve their objective, but I suspect they're questioning if it was the best way to achieve to their political object based on the second and third order effects. Only time will tell.