Putin upping the ante even more
I have to pour cold water on the latest Ukrainian military reports again. But since the Ukrainian government feeds overly optimistic reports, better to get the bad news sooner than later. The Ukrainian offensives on multiple fronts, that appeared to be gaining success only a week ago, have for all intents and purposes, ground to a halt. There are two reasons: first, the open border (following the epic breakout by the three Ukrainian brigades dug in there for over a month) has allowed the Russians to infiltrate up to 5,000 infantry, 250 tanks and 50 rocket missile systems into the fight. (Even the separatists admit that they now have up to 20,000 infantry in total, compared to 48,000 Ukrainians, by their count) These have been parceled out to reinforce a multitude of threatened sectors, to include Makeevka, Snizhne, Krasnyi Luch, Antratsyt, Illovaysk and Faschivka. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainians have encountered stiffened resistance and increased artillery fire, followed by counterattacks supported by tanks. (While reports of disheartened separatists deserting are true, these are being replaced more and more by fresh "little green men" from Russia) Two, the multiple Ukrainian maneuvers were carried out by small formations to interdict lines of communications, usually by combat groups of no more than two battalions in size with some armor and mobile artillery attached. While many of these thrusts were able to achieve rather deep incursions and achieved initial surprise, the battle groups were too small to sustain themselves if surrounded. Not surprisingly, the Russians used some of their reinforcements to surround these Ukrainian forces. Thankfully, most of these were able to break out of encirclement, but with significant loss of life and destroyed or abandoned heavy equipment. For example, just yesterday, only some 700 members of the 30th mechanized brigade broke out of encirclement near Stepanivka (east of Saur-Mohyla) Close to 200 were killed or captured (primarily by artillery from across the Russian border). Three days ago, the separatists circulated video of some thirty bombed out or abandoned armored vehicles in Stepanivka.
Moreover, reports of Luhansk being close to capture are way off the mark. While it is true that Ukrainian troops are fighting in the northeast and southeast sectors of the city (a few Ukrainian spetsnaz even broke through to the city center), these are only four battalions. There are many more separatists inside of the city. Furthermore, the Ukrainians themselves are close to being surrounded. "Little green men" just infiltrated through a narrow gap in the line and are now inside of the city (By some reports as many 1200 Russian paratroopers and 100 tanks slipped in last night) The 80th (lvivska) airmobile brigade, reinforced by some tanks from the 1st guards tank brigade and the famous "Aidar" battalion, together with the 3d spetsnaz have been attacking into the city as well as holding Russian tanks at bay coming up the road from the border at Krasnodon for over a week. Sad to say, their heroic fighting may have to end in surrender. Their only base of supply is the Luhansk airport, which itself is surrounded and the nearest friendly lines are over 20 kilometers away. Also, the airport's defenses were thinned out when these troops attacked from inside the airport in an easterly direction to interdict the road to Luhansk from use by Putin's "white humanitarian" column. In summary, there are now too many Russians, too few battle worthy Ukrainians, with which to seize Luhansk and/or Donetsk. Ukrainian president Poroshenko will have to bite the bullet and withdraw into a firm line of defense further north, or else up to one-third of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas will be destroyed or captured by the ever-increasing number of Russian troops. The Ukrainians are over-extended, battle-weary and under-supplied, while the Russians are concentrated in a central position, coiled to strike in whichever direction they choose and sporting state-of-the-art equipment (No T-90 tanks yet, but rest assured, they will mark their debut soon). The war has reached the stage where the Ukrainian army is starting to fight proper and cohesive units of the Russian army, mostly spetsnaz, supported by armor and artillery, instead of militia that was led by spetsnaz.
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
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