Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's see where things stand;

1. Ukrainians have both killed and captured Russian airborne personnel, IFV, and documents from the 76th AB Div.
2. Russian T90 tanks were involved in a major fight inside the Ukraine and only the Russian Army has T90 tanks.
3. NATO has confirmed Russian artillery together with their crews firing inside the Ukraine at Ukrainian troops.
4. The Ukrainian SBU has killed and captured a number of Russian SF/GRU recon teams inside the Ukraine.
5. Russia openly violated any agreement they made on the "aid" convoy and what Obama bluntly told them last week.
6. The leader of the DNR stated last week n a public interview Russia trained 1200 fighters and has supplied them with 120 APCs and 20 tanks.

If one reads the international definition of what constitutes a declaration of war and what constitutes what an invasion is defined as----Just what now is the US strategy outside of talking and threatening more sanctions?

It seems the US is more interested in bombing the IS and not focusing on central Europe as are the Germans who want to ship anti tank weapons to the Kurds for use against ---what kind of IS armored vehicles do they currently have in their inventory vs say the Ukrainian Army that is seeing countless Russian APCs, T64, T72s and now T90s and they are killing UA personnel.

Does this make sense to anyone?

I know we discuss the need for strategies here---but can anyone describe for me the current Russian strategy?

[OUTLAW 09]

8 Russian Paratroopers of the 76th Division from Pskov in Critical Condition at Luhansk Hospital

http://en.censor.net.ua/n299191

And the day ends in Europe with this report coming from CBS today:

Charlie KayeVerified account
‏@CharlieKayeCBS BREAKING. Pentagon: "Russia must remove its vehicles from the territory of Ukraine immediately."

Let's see if the US WH and Obama have anything to say by say 0900 European time Saturday and if Merkel in fact now goes to the Ukraine as her position in this game has been weakened as the Ukrainians currently are not so sure of the German overall position with regards to Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears critique of the Russian move has hit home as this was released this evening by RIA for the reasons they raced the aid to the separatists.

An interesting statement to say the least and designed to blunt any coming EU/NATO/US sanctions and political moves.

Notice they keep using the term international humanitarian norms but not defines just what those intl laws are---again goes back to they massive need to have everything "legal".

MOSCOW, August 22 (RIA Novosti) – Russia insists that its decision to speed up humanitarian cargo delivery to eastern Ukraine without waiting for Kiev’s formal approval was morally right and fully in line with the international norms, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Friday.

“We act fully in line with norms of the international humanitarian law,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in a statement.

“We cannot and will not tolerate the plight of people living in protesting South-Eastern Ukraine,” the deputy foreign minister added.

“We are sure that we did the right thing. And we accuse Kiev and its backers of repeatedly putting their political interests, which are anti-Russian in essence, above the basic human values of kindness and compassion,” Ryabkov continued.

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be a new Russian reason for moving the aid convoy over the border without asking anyone.

Seems the Russian "story" is changing hourly.

From the Russian Ambassador to the UNSC:


The items which are perishable, says #Churkin - 'particularly the food for children'


#Churkin at #UNSC - 'some of the aid items are perishable so we told the #Ukraine authorities 'we cannot procrastinate any longer''

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be a new Russian reason for moving the aid convoy over the border without asking anyone.

Seems the Russian "story" is changing hourly.

From the Russian Ambassador to the UNSC:


The items which are perishable, says #Churkin - 'particularly the food for children'


#Churkin at #UNSC - 'some of the aid items are perishable so we told the #Ukraine authorities 'we cannot procrastinate any longer''

Another Russian FM excuse for the aid trucks crossing without ICR/Ukrainian approval:


Daniel Sandford ✔ @BBCDanielS

Tonight at Ten: A Lukashevich of @mfa_russia tells me "Kiev has desperately attempted to derail the very important humanitarian operation."

[AmericanPride]

If one reads the international definition of what constitutes a declaration of war and what constitutes what an invasion is defined as----Just what now is the US strategy outside of talking and threatening more sanctions?

The U.S. doesn't have a strategy outside of sanctions. The traditional tool - military coercion - is ill advised in this situation.

It seems the US is more interested in bombing the IS and not focusing on central Europe as are the Germans who want to ship anti tank weapons to the Kurds for use against ---what kind of IS armored vehicles do they currently have in their inventory vs say the Ukrainian Army that is seeing countless Russian APCs, T64, T72s and now T90s and they are killing UA personnel.

Because bombing IS doesn't invite further escalation from a nuclear armed state that is also capable of spoiling U.S. interests in other parts of the globe. Ukraine is not the exclusive or primary interest of the U.S.

Does this make sense to anyone?

Yes - the Obama administration is not interested in escalating the conflict between the U.S. and Russia to include acts of violence between the two states. Russian acts of war in Ukraine is one thing - inviting military action between the U.S. and Russia is another. This is something I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread and others regarding escalating the conflict.

There are still no viable proposals made to coercivelly reverse Russian gains in Ukraine. Do you have any? The Kiev offensive is probably pretty close to triggering further Russian escalation - we've already seen steady escalation despite sanctions and condemnations. So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

[carl]

So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

[OUTLAW 09]

The U.S. doesn't have a strategy outside of sanctions. The traditional tool - military coercion - is ill advised in this situation.



Because bombing IS doesn't invite further escalation from a nuclear armed state that is also capable of spoiling U.S. interests in other parts of the globe. Ukraine is not the exclusive or primary interest of the U.S.



Yes - the Obama administration is not interested in escalating the conflict between the U.S. and Russia to include acts of violence between the two states. Russian acts of war in Ukraine is one thing - inviting military action between the U.S. and Russia is another. This is something I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread and others regarding escalating the conflict.

There are still no viable proposals made to coercivelly reverse Russian gains in Ukraine. Do you have any? The Kiev offensive is probably pretty close to triggering further Russian escalation - we've already seen steady escalation despite sanctions and condemnations. So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

So AP let's see your arguments that go like this;

1. Russia is a nuclear power and therefore "owns" central and eastern Europe to do as they will because we the US have no what business interests to the tune of billions which also drives the US economy and we the US have never claimed that we are not somehow leading the western world nor are member of the Altantic Council/NATO and oh by the way we signed a memorandum protecting the sovereignty of the Ukraine that now when we are called out on we what simply say it is not our problem

2. IS is not a threat to the US ---a threat to the existing borders of four countries in the ME yes they are but it is not up to the US to settle that particular area and if you would follow the IS thread you would fully understand I have been along with two others have often stated we fully never understood Iraq nor QJBR/AQI/ISIL/IS and what bombing trucks in the desert is more important than what...?

3. was it not you yourself that argued yes if we just appease and negotiate and understand the Russia desires to reinstate the Soviet Union this whole thing will simply disappear---you never have seemed to fully understand the ethnic nationalist imperialism that Putin and the elites around him have called into being---some would call it a new form of state fasicism

5. some commenters here state often populations have the right to define their own rule of law and good governance but when a population stands up and states their desire and a neighboring country feels "threatened" by that and decides I will unleash my newest military doctrine to curb their stated ROL/GG that is what something to "appease"

Come on AP "understand" the world you claim to be "seeing".

Also still awaiting your stated "negotiating solutions"---and my response was what---"negotiate what".

And AP what was just pulled by Russia yesterday---again my response negotiate what? there have been five different sets of arguments coming out of Moscow by 21:00 last night on why they pulled their aid stunt.

Again go back and Google the terms invasion and what defines a declaration of war.

Go back a reread the Russian New Generation Warfare and then tell me what Phase of that eight phase doctrine Russia is in currently.

Go back and reread the term political warfare and then try to explain to me you are not seeing that in the current Russian actions.

[OUTLAW 09]

8 Russian Paratroopers of the 76th Division from Pskov in Critical Condition at Luhansk Hospital

http://en.censor.net.ua/n299191

And the day ends in Europe with this report coming from CBS today:

Charlie KayeVerified account
‏@CharlieKayeCBS BREAKING. Pentagon: "Russia must remove its vehicles from the territory of Ukraine immediately."

Let's see if the US WH and Obama have anything to say by say 0900 European time Saturday and if Merkel in fact now goes to the Ukraine as her position in this game has been weakened as the Ukrainians currently are not so sure of the German overall position with regards to Russia.

Reference the Russian airborne WIAs:


Jerry @jerrym10000 · 6h

N Stanko, HromadskeTV: 8 #Russian paratroopers from Pskov in difficult condition in #Lugansk hospital +30 transported to hospital in #Rostov

[OUTLAW 09]

Rear Admiral Ihor Kabanenko: Three powerful groups of Russian troops have been identified

Posted on August 22, 2014 by chervonaruta


By Rear Admiral Ihor Kabanenko, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine
08.22.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Three powerful groups of Russian troops have been identified, who are in full combat readiness at our borders and in the Crimea: “North,” “Center” and “South.” The movement of troops demonstrates their preparation for something. This “something” may soon be:
1.The continuation of the “back and forth” near our borders with the aim of provocative and intimidating methods while at the same time of expanding the zones of instability with the use of Russian special forces (commandos).
2.Invasion under the guise of “peacekeeping operations” with the goal of mastering Dnipropetrovsk (main), Odessa and Kyiv occupations of the respective territories of Ukraine.

All this will be accompanied by an information-psychological operation aimed at our military and population.

[Dayuhan]

Just what now is the US strategy outside of talking and threatening more sanctions?

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

[carl]

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already. An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles. And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed. Nobody cares about the losers they have been using so far. If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

[Dayuhan]

An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

[carl]

applies

Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

Or the prospect of Russki bodies he actually cares a little about might cause him to rethink the whole thing.

This is one of those situations I think where what Grant said to the officers of the Army of the Potomac when he took over applies, he told them to stop thinking about what Bobby Lee was going to do to them and start thinking about what they were going to do to him.

(Also what Outlaw said.)

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--here is an example of the country you claim one has to "understand and see things from their perspective and when one does then negotiate".

Or at least that is a summary of what you were implying.

Read this article concerning the Russian truck drivers and mercenaries dismantling Ukrainian military production equipment from Ukrainian companies around the Donbas region.

Are we now back in 1945 when the Soviets dismantled everything the Germans had and shipped it back to the SU as reparations for the war--since when is the Ukraine to supply at no cost anything to the former Soviet Union since 1991?

Last time I checked the Ukrainians did not lose the war.

You really do need to go back and reread the secret agreements signed between Ribbentrop and Stalin on this exact day 23.8.1939 to really understand just why the Russians then the Soviet Union still feels today they can control the central European region and the Baltics---really read the secret agreement on how the Soviets and Germans divided up central Europe.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0GN08V20140823

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---you do realize that the looted factory equipment can from a Ukrainian factory that produces a world class SIGINT line of equipment that the Russian Army needed in order to reach their 2020 military reforms program.

But hey I guess the Putin "wanted payments" for the delivered "humanitarian aid".

And again I state what is the US response and what is the US strategy for central Europe and the Baltics outside of just being verbal?

@RobPulseNews there were reports about disassembling "TOPAZ" that produced Kolchuga SIGINT complex @enigmaleggend @raging545

[mirhond]

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already.

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111

If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!

Das ist eher fraglich. Komischerweise war vom Kiewer Stab der sogenannten Anti-Terror-Operation dazu stundenlang nichts zu hören. Erst gegen Abend meldete das Büro von Präsident Petro Poroschenko - und nicht etwa der zuständige Militärstab - die "teilweise" Vernichtung der Kolonne. Bilder davon hat die Regierung in Kiew bis heute nicht vorgelegt, auch die Amerikaner haben offenbar keine. Die besagte Kolonne ist inzwischen zudem von allen ukrainischen Nachrichtenseiten verschwunden.

So bleibt der Eindruck: Ja, den Einmarsch der 23 Fahrzeuge hat es tatsächlich gegeben, den Angriff möglicherweise aber nicht. Denn Kiew reagierte überhaupt erst, nachdem die Meldungen der beiden britischen Korrespondenten die Runde gemacht hatten. Eigentlich sollte es umgekehrt sein: Die eigene Aufklärung stellt das Eindringen der Fahrzeuge fest und berichtet darüber der Öffentlichkeit.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

[OUTLAW 09]

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111



There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!



http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

come on comrade mirhond---even you have to now admit the photos, IDs, and Russian social media has fully indicated 38 Russian soldiers of the 76th AB Div were wounded and 60 killed.

figure out how many per IFV and you will come to the total of 100 plus Russians on the convoy.

come on comrade at least get your information sources correct

[OUTLAW 09]

Awaiting the geo tagging of the solid fuel booster for the SS21 that was found in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/zexep/status/503...898560/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Army is expanding UAV and cross border artillery/MRL attacks now in the southern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/statu...46211550547968

#BreakingNews Russian army attacked the border crossing of #Novoazovsk near Mariupol multiple times during the last 2 days w/ Grads+mortars.

This goes a long way in understanding why the Russian Army is now engaging in the south along the Black Sea---there are indicators that the Russians want to expand their border control all the way to Odessa.

Notice the interplay between Russian artillery and mercenary artillery on the town Novoazoysk. from both sides of the border.

DONETSK, August 23 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian militia in the restive Donetsk region told RIA Novosti Saturday they were now fighting their way to the Sea of Azov in the country’s south.

A source in the militia headquarters told our correspondent that self-defense forces had been pounding government troops’ positions near the town of Novoazovsk, a port on the southeastern tip of Ukraine.

If the militias are victorious, forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) will gain access to the Sea of Azov, which is a northern extension of the Black Sea, while also taking control of a local checkpoint and forcing pro-Kiev troops away from the border with Russia.

Earlier reports said that heavy fighting near the Novoazovsk border crossing prompted Russian border guards to pull back inside the country over security concerns.