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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Carl says wait for 2017... but if the head is used more than the heart it will be 2024 - after two terms of Hillary.

    By then it will be all over for the US as a super power.
    The U.S. remains far ahead of any (near) peer competitor in both economic performance and military capabilities. That won't change over the next ten years. America's first rank superpower status is not at risk any time soon - what's changing is that other countries are approaching super-power status and they're not particularly pleased with the structure of the international system. This is made evidently clear by Russia's intervention in Ukraine. Just because the U.S. does not have the hegemonic power to unilaterally dictate terms to all other states does not mean the U.S. is not (or no longer) a super-power.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Just to focus on the one clear issue in all that...



    First of all, whether or not anyone "needs" Russia is completely irrelevant. Russia exists, so they have to be dealt with. We cannot make them stop existing. Whether or not anyone needs them, they still have to be managed. I don't see why "need" is in the picture at all. We don't need Iran or North Korea either, but we still have to deal with them.

    How exactly do you figure Russia is running out of anything in 2020? What's the source on that?

    The US does, in reality, need Russia to keep selling oil, as does everyone else who buys oil. They export 7mbpd +, and if that comes off the market it's hard to imagine where the world oil price will go.

    I really don't place much faith in the theory that the MH17 attack was actually a failed false flag attack on a Russian plane. That would need a lot more support to be taken seriously. The question also remains: if Putin wants so badly to intervene in the east, why didn't he do it a long time ago, like after the pseudo-referendum? The troops were in place, the pretext was there, why hold back? Either there's some mysterious force restraining him, or he doesn't want it as badly as you say he does.

    Still waiting for your suggestions on what the US, EU and Ukraine should be doing.
    Dayuhan---Google deeper---you will find the comments concerning the turn down of Russian oil production by 2020 as many of their older fields are dropping faster than anticipated due to overproduction.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...pe-359961.html

    Secondly, check the current prices being quoted on sour oil from Dubai and the KSA---remember we pointed you once before to the impact of lower oil prices that caused the pervious Soviet economic collapse.

    Read the FP article today by a journalist working for the Interpreter that I linked to here---then come back and tell me Russian troops are not inside the Ukraine already.

    By the way Russia has been running false flags ops the last two weeks---the Russian mercenaries fire into Russia and in response Russian artillery and MRLs ACCURATELY hit Ukrainian positions and then the next day Interfax and RIA complain about the Ukrainians shelling Russia---come on Dayuhan.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-08-2014 at 09:46 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    The U.S. remains far ahead of any (near) peer competitor in both economic performance and military capabilities. That won't change over the next ten years. America's first rank superpower status is not at risk any time soon - what's changing is that other countries are approaching super-power status and they're not particularly pleased with the structure of the international system. This is made evidently clear by Russia's intervention in Ukraine. Just because the U.S. does not have the hegemonic power to unilaterally dictate terms to all other states does not mean the U.S. is not (or no longer) a super-power.
    AP--you really believe that the US is not a declining power?

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    Fairly epic shifting of goalposts there. First you write this:

    why does the world need Russia which only contributed two raw resources to the world economy and one is running out in 2020
    Then you write this:

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Dayuhan---Google deeper---you will find the comments concerning the turn down of Russian oil production by 2020 as many of their older fields are dropping faster than anticipated due to overproduction.
    Clarity: Russia will not "run out of" oil in 2020. Not even close. Reserves are enormous and there are extensive areas with high potential that have barely been explored. Like many producers (think Mexico and Venezuela) they have relied too heavily on a few developed fields and failed to invest sufficiently in new ones. If they don't draw in new investment and technical support (China is the most probable source, and would not be affected by sanctions) and if they don't address some of their issues with industry structure and inefficiency, they are likely to see a drop in production at some point. A drop in production is not "running out". Two very different things.

    You failed to respond to the point that whether or not anyone "needs" Russia is irrelevant: Russia exists and must be dealt with whether anyone "needs" them or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Secondly, check the current prices being quoted on sour oil from Dubai and the KSA---remember we pointed you once before to the impact of lower oil prices that caused the pervious Soviet economic collapse.
    You actually tried to claim that the oil glut that started in the late 80s was a deliberate strategy employed against the Soviet Union, which is of course quite absurd. I do follow oil prices fairly closely, function of my actual job. They fluctuate for a lot of reasons, analyzed ad nauseam in the trade publications, but it really doesn't look likely that they will stay low enough long enough to do much harm to the Russians... though in current circumstances every little bit counts. They are also not predictable or controllable, so you can't count on them as a factor.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Read the FP article today by a journalist working for the Interpreter that I linked to here---then come back and tell me Russian troops are not inside the Ukraine already.
    We all know that Russian troops are inside the Ukraine. We can also see that they aren't winning, and that if Putin wants to tip that balance he will probably have to up the ante dramatically. The question is how we propose to alter the cost/benefit calculation he brings to that plan. What actions do you suggest? Specifically, please.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    you really believe that the US is not a declining power?
    I think the US is in a period of cyclic reticence, much like the post-Vietnam period. You will recall that there was a great deal of talk about an irrevocable decline in American power at that point as well. The US recently expended massive effort and resources prosecuting pointless and ill-advised wars. Whether or not that marks the start of a long term decline depends more on the success of efforts to rejuvenate the US economy than it does on any foreign policy factor. Power begins at home, and you can't be a superpower without a superpower domestic economy.

    The cautious use of power does not mean power is declining, it just means those who hold power are being more careful about how they use it. Managing power carefully is actually a good way to prevent a decline: empires and superpowers are more likely to fall through overextension than through reticence.

    It may take a while before America recovers enough hubris to go back to being stupid. I'm not sure that's a bad thing.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-09-2014 at 12:42 AM.
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    See AP this is where you get off the tracks again---while you want to negotiate over what I am not sure Russia has made two serious attempts to move in their "peacekeeping Brigades" which by the way I helped to train their staffs in 2012/2013 in the concept of how the US carries out peacekeeping ops so I fully understand it when they use the term peacekeeping as I had spent hours driving out of their minds peacekeeping means actually shooting civilians as they knew only one thing in peacekeeping---shooting and asking questions far, far later.

    1. they made the UNSC move claiming they were moving together with a IRC humanitarian plan which the IRC promptly stated they had none and the UNSC shot them down

    2. yesterday there was a serious move on the Ukrainian border when a large Russian military convoy moved extremely close to the border again claiming "humanitarian peacekeeping together with the IRC"

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/0...ion-escalates/

    Even more detail on that Russian "peacekeeping" attempt yesterday---notice AP/Dayuhan when the diplomatic tone gets hard Russia pulls back---not that they will stop and they are still looking for that "humanitarian option to invade with but forceful tones and the word war muttered still does get into Putin's head---and AP all you want is to negotiate?

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ne-359967.html

    Economics is in fact a verifiable weapons system---and the US with their Counter Threat Finance group is getting it right and it is hurting Russia--when the dust settles finally you will notice a shift in the Russian stance.

    The Ukraine has bluntly told Russia that any peacekeeping move by their troops is an act of war and will be seen as such and they will call the UNSC, the International Court and effectively stop all gas and oil leaving Russia for the EU effectively cutting their hard cash inflow by over 40% and the more serious threat of a Ukrainian Army guerrilla war voiced yesterday out of Kiev on the Russian Army LOCs is a really effective threat and it is being seen by the Russians as a serious threat.

    The Ukraine is not Georgia.

    Right now the US is in effect fighting a two front war---the Ukraine and over Iraq--and because we are a declining power we cannot engage both fully thus we have not been focusing verbally and sanction wise on the Russian moves the last three days. One must constantly engage the global public when Russia makes a move--if there is no worldwide comments against them then Russia interprets that as a positive response for what they do---has always been that way even in the CW days.

    We claimed for years DoD could fight a 2.5 front war---but the reality is now totally different---when you decline you decline and this is a indicator of that decline.

    AP/Dayuhan---reference the two front war problem---this article in German is a good starting point as even the Europeans see it coming.

    http://www.focus.de/politik/experten...d_4044042.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-09-2014 at 08:45 AM.

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    Default Ukrainian envelopment of strategic crossroads at Krasnyi Luch

    To delve into Ukraine's current leitmotiv, "the Russians have not invaded yet." Moreover, the Ukrainian army is in the midst of their most ambitious, desperate and risky operation yet in this war. Sloppy and at times uncoordinated, yes! But complex and epic in the face of fierce resistance; one of the most striking military events in the entire history of Ukraine. As of this afternoon Moscow time (15:00) elements of the Ukrainian army have attacked from the northwest and seized western and northeastern neighborhoods of the town of Krasnyi Luch, the last crossroads connecting Donetsk to supply lines leading to the Russian border. The situation reports by the separatist commander, Strelkov, have increasingly become laconic; two hours ago he was blaming the Russian Don Cossacks for running from the field of battle, followed by disparaging stereotypes going back to the Napoleonic wars, to the effect that "when there is serious fighting to be done, the cossacks are never to be found." Things are much more complicated than that, as Russian reinforcements are coming up from the south and the Ukrainians are in for a serious fight if they are to retain control of their new found gains. By having their troops along the border break out from encirclement two days ago, the Ukes have exposed their southern flank to direct reinforcement from Russia. Of note is the performance of a battalion combat group of the 24th "Yavoriwska" mechanized brigade (stationed near my late father's ancestral home in Mostyska), which was surrounded near the Russian border for the last month, where it endured intense rocket and arty fire and lack of food and drinking water. During the successful breakout of the Ukrainian forces from encirclement near the border, instead of destroying its heavy vehicles, like some of the other encircled units, the 24th retreated in full battle order with all operable tanks and armored vehicles in tow and instead of heading west toward safety, actually attacked to the northwest. Two days ago they were the first to break into the town of Miusynsk, just south of the previously mentioned strategic crossroads at Krasnyi Luch. The troopers of the 24th have been locked in heavy street fighting for the last two days and will have contributed immeasurably to the success of the Ukrainian units attacking Krasnyi Luch from the opposite direction. If facts are true, this was quite an impressive performance by a unit that had been shelled from across the Russian border for close to a month and then still had enough combat power to attack in the opposite direction to contribute to an operational success. In fact, the breakout of the Ukrainian "southern group" on 8/7 involved an attacking force heading east towards the encircled forces, who themselves attacked west and met at the town of Dmitrivka along the River Mius (scene of heavy WWII fighting). There, Ukrainian combat engineers bridged the Mius while under fire, enabling much of the encircled force to break out. The Russian separatists resisted fiercely. Photographs on the internet show them next to one of the captured bridges with up to ten destroyed tanks and armored vehicles in the vicinity. If the Ukrainians can consolidate at Krasnyi Luch and be ready to defend against attacks from the south, the separatists in Donetsk and Horlivka will be fully surrounded and cut off from supplies. Absent an invasion by Russian forces, Strelkov's forces in Donetsk are doomed. A climactic moment is near. Either Ukrainian victory or Russian invasion, wherein the war enters a new phase. Thanks for your patience!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shchors View Post
    To delve into Ukraine's current leitmotiv, "the Russians have not invaded yet." Moreover, the Ukrainian army is in the midst of their most ambitious, desperate and risky operation yet in this war. Sloppy and at times uncoordinated, yes! But complex and epic in the face of fierce resistance; one of the most striking military events in the entire history of Ukraine. As of this afternoon Moscow time (15:00) elements of the Ukrainian army have attacked from the northwest and seized western and northeastern neighborhoods of the town of Krasnyi Luch, the last crossroads connecting Donetsk to supply lines leading to the Russian border. The situation reports by the separatist commander, Strelkov, have increasingly become laconic; two hours ago he was blaming the Russian Don Cossacks for running from the field of battle, followed by disparaging stereotypes going back to the Napoleonic wars, to the effect that "when there is serious fighting to be done, the cossacks are never to be found." Things are much more complicated than that, as Russian reinforcements are coming up from the south and the Ukrainians are in for a serious fight if they are to retain control of their new found gains. By having their troops along the border break out from encirclement two days ago, the Ukes have exposed their southern flank to direct reinforcement from Russia. Of note is the performance of a battalion combat group of the 24th "Yavoriwska" mechanized brigade (stationed near my late father's ancestral home in Mostyska), which was surrounded near the Russian border for the last month, where it endured intense rocket and arty fire and lack of food and drinking water. During the successful breakout of the Ukrainian forces from encirclement near the border, instead of destroying its heavy vehicles, like some of the other encircled units, the 24th retreated in full battle order with all operable tanks and armored vehicles in tow and instead of heading west toward safety, actually attacked to the northwest. Two days ago they were the first to break into the town of Miusynsk, just south of the previously mentioned strategic crossroads at Krasnyi Luch. The troopers of the 24th have been locked in heavy street fighting for the last two days and will have contributed immeasurably to the success of the Ukrainian units attacking Krasnyi Luch from the opposite direction. If facts are true, this was quite an impressive performance by a unit that had been shelled from across the Russian border for close to a month and then still had enough combat power to attack in the opposite direction to contribute to an operational success. In fact, the breakout of the Ukrainian "southern group" on 8/7 involved an attacking force heading east towards the encircled forces, who themselves attacked west and met at the town of Dmitrivka along the River Mius (scene of heavy WWII fighting). There, Ukrainian combat engineers bridged the Mius while under fire, enabling much of the encircled force to break out. The Russian separatists resisted fiercely. Photographs on the internet show them next to one of the captured bridges with up to ten destroyed tanks and armored vehicles in the vicinity. If the Ukrainians can consolidate at Krasnyi Luch and be ready to defend against attacks from the south, the separatists in Donetsk and Horlivka will be fully surrounded and cut off from supplies. Absent an invasion by Russian forces, Strelkov's forces in Donetsk are doomed. A climactic moment is near. Either Ukrainian victory or Russian invasion, wherein the war enters a new phase. Thanks for your patience!
    Shchors--you make a really interesting point---the US Army had attempted to implement Mission Command into the Force since late 2012 but has largely failed due to internal resistance to changing the command environment.

    I caught a comment just yesterday from a former UA COL with Iraq experience who stated that while the Generals have been making all the grand plans it has been the Company through Brigade commanders who while knowing generally what the Generals wanted have via Mission Command many times in the last two weeks made their own decisions on the ground and drove the way they felt was succeeding many times surprising both the separatists and the UA Generals.

    Secondly---even the US Army cannot today in 2014 conduct breaching operations across rivers while under fire and build the necessary bridges to take out a 8 mile long armored column of over 200 vehicles all while under fire.

    Thirdly, the SBU reported on the night of the 17th of July Russian Airborne and SF units crossed into the Ukraine---evidence to that fact seems to have shown up last week---four captured tanks had the elite Russian Airborne Command insignias on them---hear anything else about those units inside or have they left?

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    Dayuhan--never doubt the Russian ability to use a False Flag operation on their own population if it meets their political needs.

    This series of analysis conducted by the Ukraine@war group which were the first OSINT bloggers to truly prove the Buk was irregular controlled and even figured out where the launch site was--took the SBU statements from yesterday concerning the Buk was to have shot down an Aeroflot airliner thus giving Russia the excuse to cross the border and to secure their airliner--but due to the wrong same name they shot down MH17.

    http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

    Check out thoroughly the OSINT work done by this blogger group and you will notice they come to the decision that yes the SBU might be in fact correct in their alleging the Russians in fact wanted to shot down their own airliner.

    Having worked the analysis world their work is actually well done especially coming from open source materials.

    What is interesting is that the next day after the shot down the Russian MoD claimed there was an aircraft flying just behind the MH17 but they claimed it was a SU25 which is all but impossible---but in fact the Areoflot airliner was trailing and a tad higher than MH17 and I am betting this is the so called "SU25".

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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP--you really believe that the US is not a declining power?
    I believe the perception of the decline of U.S. power is less a function of an absolute reduction of U.S. capabilities and more the consequence of the relative increase of power of other states; namely China and Russia. The U.S. does have serious structural problems it needs to fix in the long-term.

    First, you say this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw
    while you want to negotiate over what I am not sure Russia has made two serious attempts to move in their "peacekeeping Brigades" which by the way I helped to train their staffs in 2012/2013 in the concept of how the US carries out peacekeeping ops so I fully understand it when they use the term peacekeeping as I had spent hours driving out of their minds peacekeeping means actually shooting civilians as they knew only one thing in peacekeeping---shooting and asking questions far, far later.
    Then you say:

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    Right now the US is in effect fighting a two front war---the Ukraine and over Iraq--and because we are a declining power we cannot engage both fully thus we have not been focusing verbally and sanction wise on the Russian moves the last three days.
    Leading to your conclusion that:

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    One must constantly engage the global public when Russia makes a move--if there is no worldwide comments against them then Russia interprets that as a positive response for what they do---has always been that way even in the CW days.
    It now appears that you are advocating nothing more than expressing diplomatic indignation. I thought Russia was a second-rate power with nothing to offer the world? Now the U.S. is incapable of doing anything about it other than snubbing its nose?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Default July 17 Russian incursion; Mission orders

    I too second Outlaw 09's position mentioned above that the Russian Buk shot down the wrong civilian airliner on July 15. There were reports of an averted Russian invasion overnight from July 17-18, that was aborted at the last minute. At the time, it remained a mystery. In light of the Ukrainian SBU's (intelligence service) recent publication of the theory that this incursion was to follow Russian outrage and Western sympathy over a Russian airliner that was to have been shot down over Ukrainian territory by a Russian Buk, but with the Malaysian Air Flight 777 falling instead, the recall of the invasion now makes sense. Regarding Outlaw 09's comment about mission orders, you have to realize that the US Army and Marines occasionally train to fight where they face an equal adversary and their officers try to adjust on the fly on the basis of general mission orders, but in actuality fight scripted wars from above where the adversary has to hide and use guerilla tactics or roadside IED's because of American might, especially in the air and because of integrated digital communications and satellite intelligence. The Ukrainians and Russian separatists, to a large degree, are fighting a WWII era campaign without the sophisticated communications equipment, except at higher staff level. The battalion commanders have mere radio, which as we all know, is not always reliable. My understanding is that the disparate units of the UA, operating apart from each other at a distance of multiple kilometers, have had a problem in maintaining lateral communications, being in touch only vertically with higher headquarters. Nonetheless, when two sides are evenly matched, sophisticated communications often break down as a result of casualties and destroyed equipment, leaving it up to the field commanders to use their intuition to decide what to do next on the basis of limited information. The war in East Ukraine is both fascinating and horrible; a throwback to bold and daring maneuvers between the Wehrmacht and the Red Army.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I believe the perception of the decline of U.S. power is less a function of an absolute reduction of U.S. capabilities and more the consequence of the relative increase of power of other states; namely China and Russia. The U.S. does have serious structural problems it needs to fix in the long-term.

    First, you say this:

    Then you say:
    on
    Leading to your conclusion that:

    It now appears that you are advocating nothing more than expressing diplomatic indignation. I thought Russia was a second-rate power with nothing to offer the world? Now the U.S. is incapable of doing anything about it other than snubbing its nose?
    AP---happy to see that you agreed that Russia is a second rate "developing" power and has nothing to offer the world---at least you finally agreed on something.



    AP- you definitely got the negotiation thing wrong did you not?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 06:53 PM. Reason: Edited slightly or completly by Moderator to enable thread to be reopened

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shchors View Post
    I too second Outlaw 09's position mentioned above that the Russian Buk shot down the wrong civilian airliner on July 15. There were reports of an averted Russian invasion overnight from July 17-18, that was aborted at the last minute. At the time, it remained a mystery. In light of the Ukrainian SBU's (intelligence service) recent publication of the theory that this incursion was to follow Russian outrage and Western sympathy over a Russian airliner that was to have been shot down over Ukrainian territory by a Russian Buk, but with the Malaysian Air Flight 777 falling instead, the recall of the invasion now makes sense. Regarding Outlaw 09's comment about mission orders, you have to realize that the US Army and Marines occasionally train to fight where they face an equal adversary and their officers try to adjust on the fly on the basis of general mission orders, but in actuality fight scripted wars from above where the adversary has to hide and use guerilla tactics or roadside IED's because of American might, especially in the air and because of integrated digital communications and satellite intelligence. The Ukrainians and Russian separatists, to a large degree, are fighting a WWII era campaign without the sophisticated communications equipment, except at higher staff level. The battalion commanders have mere radio, which as we all know, is not always reliable. My understanding is that the disparate units of the UA, operating apart from each other at a distance of multiple kilometers, have had a problem in maintaining lateral communications, being in touch only vertically with higher headquarters. Nonetheless, when two sides are evenly matched, sophisticated communications often break down as a result of casualties and destroyed equipment, leaving it up to the field commanders to use their intuition to decide what to do next on the basis of limited information. The war in East Ukraine is both fascinating and horrible; a throwback to bold and daring maneuvers between the Wehrmacht and the Red Army.
    It seems that whatever the UA is doing is working as this seems to indicate the newly appointed Donetsk leader has been signaling he wants a ceasefire.

    However, hours after Strelkov's statement, rebels said they had reclaimed Krasnyi Luch. "According to preliminary data, Krasnyi Luch is cleared of enemy forces. The battle continues on the outskirts of the city and near Miusynsk from the east," read a tweet from the official account of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic.

    With Ukrainian forces pressing down on the rebels, the newly appointed separatist leader in Donetsk Alexander Zakharchenko said he was ready for a ceasefire to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the city.

    “We hope that the international community will influence the bloodthirsty Kyiv government,” he told RIA Novosti.

    The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to Zakharchenko's statement.

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    You don't get it do you?

    Yes the US has military and economic power and probably will maintain its position in this regard... but what the US have already lost and which will never be regained is the moral stature of a super power acting for the 'good'.

    It is the likes of your generation AP, who have squandered the legacy and sacrifice of your Greatest Generation and taken the US not to the next level of greatness but rather an unprecedented level of arrogance.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    The U.S. remains far ahead of any (near) peer competitor in both economic performance and military capabilities. That won't change over the next ten years. America's first rank superpower status is not at risk any time soon - what's changing is that other countries are approaching super-power status and they're not particularly pleased with the structure of the international system. This is made evidently clear by Russia's intervention in Ukraine. Just because the U.S. does not have the hegemonic power to unilaterally dictate terms to all other states does not mean the U.S. is not (or no longer) a super-power.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 06:54 PM. Reason: Edited slightly or completly by Moderator to enable thread to be reopened

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    AP---do you really know the multiple reasons that Putin used in his Duma speech on the Crimea that he threw in the face of the West that he used as his justification for moving into the Crimea and wanting eastern Ukraine?

    Do you really think he is going to just negotiate those driving ideas of his that he expressed to the Russian people in front of the assembled Duma--away?

    He views this current struggle a Russian resistance to the decadent values of the West and his deep fear of the Colored Revolts.

    Then you do not understand the current Russian ethnic nationalist imperialism which some call a Russian form of fascism.

    When was the last time the US ever got an armed nationalist or a war of liberation movement to "negotiate" heck we cannot even get the Israeli's to halt the bombing of civilians in UN flagged schools.

    That is the "moral" power that JMA writes about.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-09-2014 at 09:13 PM.

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    AP--with this announcement today from Russian FSB officer Girkin--- Putin has a choice---cross over and provoke a war with the Ukraine and far more serious sanctions or pull back and lose his reelection.

    Do you honestly think he will negotiate his way out? He has been offered a number of times from the West an exit ramp--did he take those offers?

    DONETSK, Ukraine — The enigmatic commander-in-chief of Russian-backed rebels in this separatist stronghold conceded on Saturday that Ukrainian forces had seized control of a strategically important city in neighboring Luhansk region, and now has his fighters “completely surrounded.”

    Igor Girkin, a Russian citizen better known by his nom de guerre Strelkov or “The Shooter,” said Krasnyi Luch, a town located at a junction of important east-west highways and has been a main artery for the rebels to transport reinforcements from Russia into the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, “has been taken by the enemy.”

    “The Donetsk-Horlivka group of the fighters of Novorossiya is completely surrounded,” Girkin said, using the term meaning “New Russia.” Horlivka, another rebel stronghold some 20 miles north of Donetsk, has been under siege by Ukrainian forces for weeks. In previous days, they have heavily shelled the city of 250,000, resulting in dozens of civilian deaths and severe damage to infrastructure.

    In announcing the loss, which Girkin said was “nothing strange” since he had “repeatedly warned” it would happen, the pencil-mustachioed self-declared defense minister of the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic recognized the significant advancements made by government troops in recent days.

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    Default When was this 'golden age'?

    JMA posted and cited in part:
    Yes the US has military and economic power and probably will maintain its position in this regard... but what the US have already lost and which will never be regained is the moral stature of a super power acting for the 'good'.
    When was this period of moral 'good'?
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    AP--with this announcement today from Russian FSB officer Girkin--- Putin has a choice---cross over and provoke a war with the Ukraine and far more serious sanctions or pull back and lose his reelection.

    Do you honestly think he will negotiate his way out? He has been offered a number of times from the West an exit ramp--did he take those offers?
    I think you're missing the point on the "exit ramp" suggestion. First, you don't offer it to Putin, you offer it direct to the separatists in the field. They've been at it for a while, they're tired, a lot of them are dead, they haven't had the support they expected, they have issues with each other. You're offering them a chance to go home to their families without penalty, and some superficial "autonomy" concessions (official language status, whatever else would not compromise Ukrainian sovereignty).

    More important, you know they are not going to accept the offer. Ok, a few individuals or units might, but Putin and his puppets certainly won't. That's not the point. The point is to undercut the narrative of direct threat to ethnic Russians that you say the Russians are trying so hard to build. It's hard to claim that you have to intervene to protect ethnic Russians when the ethnic Russians have a generous offer of re-integration on the table.

    It's a propaganda move. Given your focus on propaganda I'd think that would be obvious. Of course the offer won't be accepted; that's not the point. The point is to undercut the narrative and the pretext, and to sow some doubt among the cannon fodder out in the field.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russia has made two serious attempts to move in their "peacekeeping Brigades" ...

    1. they made the UNSC move claiming they were moving together with a IRC humanitarian plan which the IRC promptly stated they had none and the UNSC shot them down

    2. yesterday there was a serious move on the Ukrainian border when a large Russian military convoy moved extremely close to the border again claiming "humanitarian peacekeeping together with the IRC"

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/0...ion-escalates/

    Even more detail on that Russian "peacekeeping" attempt yesterday---notice AP/Dayuhan when the diplomatic tone gets hard Russia pulls back---not that they will stop and they are still looking for that "humanitarian option to invade with but forceful tones and the word war muttered still does get into Putin's head...
    Again, the whole point of the "exit ramp" proposal is to undercut the argument for that "humanitarian option to invade".

    You say here that there have been "two serious attempts" to move in, both of which have pulled back. You also say that "when the diplomatic tone gets hard Russia pulls back". If that's true, and that if mere words can get them to pull back, that would suggest a high degree of uncertainty and indecision, even fear. Why else would they pull back from a course already decided on?

    If the Russians pull back over nothing more than a change in diplomatic tone, they are running scared and the current approach is working. I'm actually not convinced that this is the case, but you're making some fairly convincing arguments that it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Economics is in fact a verifiable weapons system---and the US with their Counter Threat Finance group is getting it right and it is hurting Russia--when the dust settles finally you will notice a shift in the Russian stance.
    I agree. I've said from the start that the preferred response would be multilateral, economic, and graduated. Economics is realistically the primary relevant weapons system for the US in this fight, because everyone in the picture knows the US isn't going to war over the Ukraine no matter who sits in the White House.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    The Ukraine has bluntly told Russia that any peacekeeping move by their troops is an act of war and will be seen as such and they will call the UNSC, the International Court and effectively stop all gas and oil leaving Russia for the EU effectively cutting their hard cash inflow by over 40% and the more serious threat of a Ukrainian Army guerrilla war voiced yesterday out of Kiev on the Russian Army LOCs is a really effective threat and it is being seen by the Russians as a serious threat.
    True, and it's also pretty clear that the West will support the Ukraine with more aggressive sanctions. That leaves Putin with an unpleasant choice to make. The ball's pretty much in Putin's court, and we'll see what he does. The threats are on the table, he has to calculate the costs and benefits either way. I do hope the Ukrainians refrain from direct moves into urban areas where high collateral damage is inevitable. A bunch of dead ethnic Russian civilians will make intervention a lot easier for Putin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Right now the US is in effect fighting a two front war---the Ukraine and over Iraq--and because we are a declining power we cannot engage both fully thus we have not been focusing verbally and sanction wise on the Russian moves the last three days. One must constantly engage the global public when Russia makes a move--if there is no worldwide comments against them then Russia interprets that as a positive response for what they do---has always been that way even in the CW days.
    Can't really buy the two-front war argument. As above, we all know the US isn't going to war with Russia over the Ukraine, and the US is very unlikely to put ground troops back into Iraq. The constraint in Iraq is US public opinion, not declining power, and the reluctance to push another nuclear power to the wall in open conflict in their own front yard goes all the way back to the 50's. MAD still matters.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-10-2014 at 01:28 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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  19. #99
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    Do you honestly think he will negotiate his way out? He has been offered a number of times from the West an exit ramp--did he take those offers?
    Yes - putting a gun to Putin's head and demanding a humiliating withdrawal will not compel Russia to change its course. The U.S. does not have that kind of leverage over Moscow short of direct confrontation and serious escalation (and expansion) of the U.S.-Russia conflict. When has this ever worked for the U.S. with Russia?

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    That is the "moral" power that JMA writes about.
    Quote Originally Posted by JMA
    It is the likes of your generation AP, who have squandered the legacy and sacrifice of your Greatest Generation and taken the US not to the next level of greatness but rather an unprecedented level of arrogance.
    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP---happy to see that you agreed that Russia is a second rate "developing" power and has nothing to offer the world---at least you finally agreed on something.
    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    but you definitely got the negotiation thing wrong did you not?
    Last I checked, the conflict is still on-going, and seeing how negotiations are a component of conflict termination, your rhetorical question makes no sense.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 06:55 PM. Reason: Edited slightly or completly by Moderator to enable thread to be reopened
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Just an update with the Wikimap. As usual use with care.

    It highly likely that the (Pro)Russians now control all the southern and southeastern ares of the Luhansk oblast. The heavy artillery strikes of Russian forces inside Russia against the rather isolated Ukrainian troops certainly facilitated the (Pro)Russian offensive. While a long part of the border was already open, it will be very reassuring for the Russian side to know that the Ukrainian army will have little chance to reduce or even block the stream of men and material from Russia in the near future. They have also been able to avoid an complete encirclement of Luhansk itself, the last large city of the oblast under their control. Most of the Ukrainian forces seem to have escaped the Southern cauldron.

    On the other side the very densly populated triangle Donetsk, Horlivka, Makiyivka, if not completely cut-off, can only be supplied by Russia with great difficulties. Of course there seems to be heavy fighting along the string of cities along the souther highway H21 between the two Oblasts, with (Pro)Russian forces trying to relieve the almost completely encircled hub and keep the road open.

    Last edited by Firn; 08-10-2014 at 09:53 AM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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