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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #141
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    IMO this thread is a waste of time as it is spinning around in a circle.

    In some aspects this was foreseen by JMA when the proposals to expand the topics was made.

    It is difficult often to keep track on multiple threads on the same topic/sub topics as actually many comments bleed into others so one loses easily the oversight.

    Actually the events in the Ukraine are running it's course anyway until the dust settles by winter.

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    As per my comment in another thread if this "comment" was so persuasive then why wasn't it used when Russia invaded the Crimea?
    Good question---maybe the fear of an open ended war triggered it.

  3. #143
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Georgian(volunteer?) on the Ukrainian side

    http://scout-thedeaddistrict.blogspo...og-post_2.html

    One Swede, one Georgian - it would be nice to put them in one grave.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  4. #144
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    The question that should be asked is why didn't the US make this persuasive call back when Russia first invaded Crimea?
    Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Why?
    Because they desperately needed money, and efforts to support the price by cutting production had failed catastrophically. The cartel broke. Cartels often do when under stress.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  5. #145
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Default Two questions on the "humanitarian aid" convoy

    I think we all understand that this is not just "humanitarian aid", but...

    Can the Russians bring in enough force in this convoy to change the momentum in the conflict? Outlaw estimated elsewhere that 500-600 individuals will be involved, but haven't the Russians already infiltrated much larger numbers? Is it a game changer, or a face saver?

    Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?

    Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-13-2014 at 12:38 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I would be interested in know whether there is a code of conduct for moderators? If there is, it should be publically available. If not it would explain why there is no consistency and some cases some pretty unethical conduct by moderators.

    It may not be apparent to you but an individuals background and experience is absolutely critical to his ability to comment on a subject. Your example of combat... no one who has not been involved in significant combat can possibly matters relating with any seriousness. Surely you understand this?
    There is a major difference between perspective and ability. We don't prohibit people from posting their perspectives or opinions based on their experience. You are encouraged to challenge their views, but you can't attack them personally because of their view, and you can't tell them they can't post because they don't have experience or expertise. In fact, if you change your approach you have a great opportunity to use your experience to educate others. If they disagree you, then you just have to live with it like the rest of us.
    Last edited by Bill Moore; 08-13-2014 at 02:16 AM. Reason: grammar errors

  7. #147
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?

    Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.
    You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  8. #148
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

    upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 09:50 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  9. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.
    See, what major channels? Russian? Because multiple EU, US, Japanese and Ukraine sources are saying different on their news channels.

    In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813

  10. #150
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28768746

    But the BBC's Daniel Sandford in Moscow says that long discussions are continuing about whether the lorries will actually be allowed to enter.
    Hardly so much has been confirmed, everyone is squabbling around it and way it's looking right now all those trucks might get passed off.

    Those trucks mostly mean, to me, Russia is disengaging. Putin gets to look like, hey I'm doing stuff. Within my means. Food and stuff. Will give him leeway when sending more. Keep himself kosher with the Russian population in the east for essentially 'abandoning them'. Because if he doesn't invade, and Ukraine finishes off the rebels, and they will unless Russia comes, they're not going to like him much anymore either.

  11. #151
    Council Member BayonetBrant's Avatar
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    I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away

    http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/

    excerpt:
    The Kremlin, which has waged a massive disinformation campaign aimed at legitimizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, has employed so-called "troll armies" to invade online territories armed with pro-Moscow rhetoric.

    A June article by Max Seddon of BuzzFeed reported the Kremlin was spending millions of dollars to pay English-speaking Russians to promote President Vladimir Putin and his policies in U.S. media like Fox News broadcasting and The Huffington Post and Politico news sites. Trolls are reportedly expected to manage multiple fake accounts and post on news articles 50 times a day, often with sentiments as simplistic as "Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak!"

    In order to promote its narrative, the Kremlin has adopted a two-fisted strategy, unleashing its troll armies even as it tightens Internet restrictions at home. On August 1, Russia enacted controversial new legislation aimed at muzzling social media, the last bastion of the country's embattled opposition and a free flow of information about the war in Ukraine.

    Anton Nosik, a popular Russian blogger and programmer who is sometimes referred to as the "father of the Russian Internet," says the Kremlin is falling back on a time-honored strategy in its propaganda war on Ukraine. But this time, he says, the stakes are higher than ever before. (BuzzFeed reports that at least one trolling company—Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg—is expected to spend more than $10 million in 2014 alone.)

    "Comments were already serving as a well-financed Kremlin instrument of war against the opposition, even five years ago," he says. "So what's going on now is nothing new. But what's absolutely clear is that now they're spending more money on Ukraine than they ever spent against Alexei Navalny, or Ekho Moskvy, Kommersant, Gazeta.ru"—Russian media actors who have been targeted by the Kremlin in the past—"and all the rest."
    Brant
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  12. #152
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyxilis View Post
    In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813
    I'd rather believe Poroshenko's Executive Office

    Украина не возражает против участия России в работе гуманитарной миссии в Луганск и область. Об этом заявил заместитель главы Администрации Президента Украины Валерий Чалый в эфире телеканала ICTV в понедельник, 11 августа.
    Ukraine doesn't object to Russian participation in humanitarian mission to Lugansk, said Deputy Head of Executive Office Valeri Chalyi, 11 Aug.

    http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/340...yia-prezydenta

    then Facebook minister Avakov who is well-known liar and clown.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 07:59 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  13. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.
    LOL... loyal to the end.

    Caught unawares, dithering, scared, etc.

    History will show whether the CIA provided advanced warning or failed again. Either way it has been a Keystone Cops situation.

  14. #154
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    LOL... loyal to the end.

    Caught unawares, dithering, scared, etc.

    History will show whether the CIA provided advanced warning or failed again. Either way it has been a Keystone Cops situation.
    We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the incident can be used as a basis for a conclusion, unless of course you've already reached the conclusion.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the incident can be used as a basis for a conclusion, unless of course you've already reached the conclusion.
    Likewise.

  16. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post




    Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

    upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.


    comrade mirhond---here is a report that your favorite Russian commander from the FSB/GRU is evidently seriously wounded by a Ukrainian Seal team.

    so much for quality Russian mercenaries.

    https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko?orig...70919530876928

  17. #157
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    mirhond---another report for you to mull over---titled Russian PM comments against Putin "hacked and or drunk"


    East of Brussels @EastOfBrussels · 3h

    #Russia's PM says he's ashamed of #Putin's government, resigns. Yes, hacked or Dmitry is really drunk #ukraine

  18. #158
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    It appears now from Russian sources that the second top Russian mercenary has been wounded---one now in each of the last two mercenary held towns.

    True story, fake story or the exit plan being put into play?

    Secondly---there have been a series of tweets suggesting that the drivers are from an elite armored unit and will remain inside the Ukraine and others will drive back--there have been multiple reports recently of a large number of tanks parked in the surrounding areas in the forests but they have no more mercenary crews for them.

    OSCE web site reports uniformed personnel w/no markings are crossing the border where their teams are reporting from.

    Wounding link Russian news source;

    http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1378586

  19. #159
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    Default Photos and roses for GRU’s ‘spetsnaz’ casualties

    This FT article is behind a registration 'wall', which allows limited access:
    In an anonymous military classroom somewhere in Moscow, 12 portraits in identical tortoiseshell frames stand on a metal bench placed on a dais. In front of each picture is a bunch of six roses, red and pink. The dead.....were operatives of Russian special forces. All 12 died in Ukraine in recent weeks. Officially, they were all on holiday.

    It ends citing Nigel Inkster, of IISS, ex-SIS (MI6):
    It is about subversion, it is about espionage with limited use of deniable special forces and the use of deniable proxies...It is a war that is never really declared.

    Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f28913f6-1...#axzz3AMNKyZaz
    davidbfpo

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    Have not seen the confirmation geo tag on this photo posted today--but it appears that two Russian Buk command vehicles pulled up directly behind the supposedly "humanitarian aid convoy" parked now near the mercenary crossing points not controlled by the Ukraine.

    So much for the Putin statement that the "aid" delivery had been planned and approved by the ICRC who evidently is still awaiting the accurate load out details on each truck from Moscow---or maybe the ICRC just requested Buk air defense in case they were attacked by 'little green men" from Mars?

    Mars.https://twitter.com/courtneymoscow/s...264000/photo/1

    More Russia AD equipment (photos in the tweets) trailing behind the "humanitarian aid" convoy accompanied by two armed Russia copters.

    http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...he-move-again/

    That looks like a 9K22 Tunguska mounted to a Kamaz truck. It is an anti-aircraft weapon equipped with both missiles and 30mm guns. The missiles are capable of knocking out low-altitude aircraft flying at under 3,500 meters, though missile variants have a range up to 10 kilometers. and the guns could be used to target low-flying aircraft, incoming projectiles, or even ground forces. When used in combination with more advanced missile systems which have been spotted in the area, the 9k22 is a formidable addition to Russia's forces in the area.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2014 at 04:50 PM.

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