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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    SBU published yesterday intercepted call between FSB officer in Crimea and rebel in Donetsk (according to his text it seems that he is from Crimea also). Rebel tells FSB guy that everything is f...ed up and peoples' support is zero. First person (nickname for Girkin/Strelok) is under the influence of Russian orthodox sect and this is very bad. Some rebel groups are just stealing cars and selling the stuff in Russia. Donetsk has been devided to influence zones between different goups to carry out criminal activities. Rebel says that there is nothing to do. He should return to Crimea to deal with Tatars there. He says also that he has already organised his agentura in Donetsk and through this set he can organise resistance in the future. FSB guy offers to rebel exfil through Rostov oblast border crossing points, where his colleague can arrange safe crossing.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ow5sEsSyI4

    Rebel says that his agentura should go to Russia for training and arming and after infiltration should carry out attacks against Ukrainian forces. Rebel says that this should take place in Perevalnoe (This is "legendary" Ukrainian military base in Crimea, that was under siege of Russian troops in March).

    Video about Russian troops in Perevalnoe https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GzTV0tuQUzI

    Cossacks in action in Perevalnoe http://navoine.info/crimea-ryb-2.html

    One pic shows the commander of Russian troops and he has forgotten to remove Russian insignia from the hat. Otherwise he is normal green polite person.
    Also in that same intercept quoted also by the German Der Spiegel today ---was the mention that the mercenaries can not hold out past the end of this month.

    This is an interesting comment as there have been several blog comments indicating that coming out of the ATO are comments stating that some of the mercenary units are trying to pull back into Russia stating 19 August.

    Yesterday one of the "independent BNs" working with the UA reported 45 Cossacks surrendered to them and they were handed over to the UA and SBU.

  2. #182
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    This is why the Ukraine did not trust the "aid" convoy which were Russian military trucks repainted white and driven by those "little men in tan".

    Amazing what fits into a commercial long hauler these days?

    https://twitter.com/Dbnmjr/status/50...706944/photo/1

  3. #183
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    FSB guy Girkin/Strelok went to vacation. According to Borodai, he'll be back in a month. Some think that this is too late for Donetsk. According to intercept Crimean FSB guy calls his man back, Girkin has disappeared and Borodai is now deputy PM instead PM. I'll not wonder, if he will disappear next. What is the plan?

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    FSB guy Girkin/Strelok went to vacation. According to Borodai, he'll be back in a month. Some think that this is too late for Donetsk. According to intercept Crimean FSB guy calls his man back, Girkin has disappeared and Borodai is now deputy PM instead PM. I'll not wonder, if he will disappear next. What is the plan?
    kaur---there is a serious rumor floating around about the following;

    Both were told by the FSB either you toe the line and do as we say or you are out---they requested repeatedly and both refused to toe the line and then you noticed just before they "resigned" the lanced articles that both had been wounded--Girkin was in theory seriously wounded---which had been denied by the separatist leadership.

    Then suddenly they resigned. And then the "vacation".

    Both were replaced by actual Ukrainian proRussians---suspect they will be the ones to negotiate the proRussian demands if it ever comes to an inter Ukrainian negotiation

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This is why the Ukraine did not trust the "aid" convoy which were Russian military trucks repainted white and driven by those "little men in tan".

    Amazing what fits into a commercial long hauler these days?

    https://twitter.com/Dbnmjr/status/50...706944/photo/1
    So Putin is intending cut his losses and pull the plug?

    The Ukrainians can inspect any outgoing "cargo" the way they did with the incoming convoy.
    Last edited by Maeda Toshiie; 08-16-2014 at 05:38 PM.

  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maeda Toshiie View Post
    So Putin is intending cut his losses and pull the plug?

    The Ukrainians can inspect any outgoing "cargo" the way they did with the incoming convoy.
    IMO Putin is not cutting his losses---he is actually upping the efforts if the YouTube video is correct where the new leader of the Donetsk stated he is anticipating receiving 1200 new fighters that were trained the last four months in Moscow and he is awaiting 120 APs and 30 tanks---the fighting on the UA side has slowed down and they have noticed an improved fighting abilities of the separatists.

    By shifting out those that were not toeing the line makes it now easier to have a unified front.

    Notice he is not de-escalating.

    Putin totally miscalculated the western reactions from the beginning--he assumed they would fold as they did in the Georgian war and go back to business as usual---instead he is hit with sanctions that are actually biting now harder and he is isolated thoroughly and might not be invited to the G20 which is a prestige loss.

    Latest affect of the sanction---the largest Russian oil company is asking the Russian government for a 45B USD bailout since they had built a number of business deals built on short term USD loans which they now cannot get.

    Putin has no exit plan and did not take the exits that were being offered by the west as he thought his mercenaries would be holding their own---now they are losing and he cannot afford to lose face---losing face is a defeat and he does not want to be considered a loser against the west.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-16-2014 at 07:30 PM.

  7. #187
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    Russian SF sniper team---awaiting the geo tag on the photos.

    https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...728192/photo/1

    Video was taken of this Russian SF sniper team inside the Ukraine.


    BREAKING: A #Russia|n special force unit (СРС - Special Radio Communication Service) was seen and filmed in #Ukraine, check @lennutrajektoor

    The goal of GRU RUS SOF opers are establishing secure radio comm w GRU GS for relaying & receiving C3I.

    Video link---video was from 12 August and on the road that the "aid" convoy was to go down.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aqOu_-nqhc
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-16-2014 at 08:06 PM.

  8. #188
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    18 Russian Buk missiles being moved towards Ukrainian border.

    https://twitter.com/djp3tros/status/...088000/photo/1

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    IMO Putin is not cutting his losses---he is actually upping the efforts if the YouTube video is correct where the new leader of the Donetsk stated he is anticipating receiving 1200 new fighters that were trained the last four months in Moscow and he is awaiting 120 APs and 30 tanks---the fighting on the UA side has slowed down and they have noticed an improved fighting abilities of the separatists.

    By shifting out those that were not toeing the line makes it now easier to have a unified front.

    Notice he is not de-escalating.

    Putin totally miscalculated the western reactions from the beginning--he assumed they would fold as they did in the Georgian war and go back to business as usual---instead he is hit with sanctions that are actually biting now harder and he is isolated thoroughly and might not be invited to the G20 which is a prestige loss.

    Latest affect of the sanction---the largest Russian oil company is asking the Russian government for a 45B USD bailout since they had built a number of business deals built on short term USD loans which they now cannot get.

    Putin has no exit plan and did not take the exits that were being offered by the west as he thought his mercenaries would be holding their own---now they are losing and he cannot afford to lose face---losing face is a defeat and he does not want to be considered a loser against the west.
    I agree. He is upping the support significantly . However, at this point it appears Ukraine is still making progress. It was just reported they control the police station in Luhansk.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    I agree. He is upping the support significantly . However, at this point it appears Ukraine is still making progress. It was just reported they control the police station in Luhansk.
    BW---noticed about a hour ago via Interfax press release Moscow is denying that they provided 1200 Russian trained mercenaries for the fight as well as 120 APCs and 30 tanks.

    Total embarrassment for Moscow when they were to be meeting in Berlin---and after months of stating no we are not providing support.

    Putin was directly challenged by Merkel in a call to him to finally come clean and admit he is supporting them and then to finally stop it.

    Seems like the swap out of the separatist leader in the Donetsk did not get his messaging correctly stated and or agreed to with Moscow.

  11. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian SF sniper team---awaiting the geo tag on the photos.

    https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...728192/photo/1

    Video was taken of this Russian SF sniper team inside the Ukraine.


    BREAKING: A #Russia|n special force unit (СРС - Special Radio Communication Service) was seen and filmed in #Ukraine, check @lennutrajektoor

    The goal of GRU RUS SOF opers are establishing secure radio comm w GRU GS for relaying & receiving C3I.

    Video link---video was from 12 August and on the road that the "aid" convoy was to go down.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aqOu_-nqhc
    Appears that these Russian SF photos were part of a larger upload over the last few days concerning the UA's bold attack on Krasnyi Luch which while successful came with loses. Interesting is that the Russian released a sitmap indicating the fight but only depicting the UA was surrounded in KL almost at the same time as the photos and videos were being posted.

    Appears that the Russians launched a Russian SF strike across the border to cut off the UA advance thus the series of uploads---photos and videos.

    What is interesting is the GRU/SF (load bearing equipment, radios, sniper weapons (2) and the use of the BTR 82s has primary weapons carrier) equipment, the use of the BTR-82 A1s and the use of the white arm and leg bands was used exactly like the Russian SF used them in the Crimea---meaning unmarked uniformed military running around in the Crimea with white arm bands.

    This type of information coupled with the SBU's capture of a GRU/SF lightweight secure sitcom system hurts as it is usually something one does not want known as it goes to TTPs and methods.

    Again poor Russian social media opsec by one of their so called elite units.

    Second confirmed Russian military cross over into the Ukraine combined with their own produced sitmap which depicted the encirclement.

    http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-17-2014 at 04:03 PM.

  12. #192
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    There has been some blogging around the possibility of a Russian Chechen BN that is SF.

    Here is another work up of the uploaded videos and photos with more OSINT analysis work and the attempt to geo tag and point to in fact a Russian Chechen SF BN.

    http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...k-begins/#3839
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-17-2014 at 04:38 PM.

  13. #193
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    This is an interesting journalist report on her encounter with a road block manned by young proRussian fighters.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...in-chaos/story

  14. #194
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    In the face of countless videos/photos/journalist reports/voice intercepts/NATO statements and arrests by the SBU of countless Russian fighters it still seems Ruyssia cannot for some strange reason jump over the razor and openly admit that yes they have been supplying weapons/fighters/ammunition to the separatists.

    JAL shot down arguments version 3.

    Guess this is the Russian answer to Merkel demanding Putin Russia finally admit their support to the separatists.

    Notice they still in their press releases push the civilian disaster crisis.

    From RIA today:

    MOSCOW, August 17 (RIA Novosti) -Russia is not sending any military equipment to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

    "We have repeatedly said that no equipment is supplied there," Peskov said in an interview with the Govorit Moskva radio station.

    Earlier, Donetsk Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko reported that militia had received some 150 combat vehicles, including 30 tanks, but did not specify where the equipment had come from.

    Moscow has repeatedly rejected accusations of interfering in the situation in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that before accusing Russia, it is necessary to present real evidence of Moscow’s alleged interference in the Ukrainian crisis.

    Numerous reports by Kiev have not received any confirmation so far.

    Since mid-April, Kiev has been conducting a military operation against the southeastern regions of Ukraine that had refused to recognize the legitimacy of the new government after February coup.

    Since the start of the operation, nearly 1,400 people have been killed and more than 4,000 wounded in the region, including about 2,600 civilians and 29 children, according to a report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). At least 117,000 people have been forcibly displaced.

    NOTE: Russian sources ie Interfax/RIA/RT have claimed in fact over 500K refugees so it is interesting they now accept UN numbers.

    Russia has repeatedly condemned Kiev’s actions and urged for peaceful dialogue with representatives of Ukraine’s southeastern regions.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-17-2014 at 05:58 PM.

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    My take on the current situation and the removal of all of the mercenaries and the associated leaders by the 18th August is that Putin has had enough of failure by 'loose cannons' and he is about to up the ante by using a more professional leadership and much more direct chain of command with regular 'plausibly deniable' troops and if this does not stop the ATO and roll back the ATO gains, than as a last resort he will invade to achieve his objectives.

    These I think are the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts as a minimum and may also include the Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts as well, the former so he has a complete Eastern buffer and the latter so he has a direct route to Crimea, which is currently reliant on Ukrainian food and water supplies across the border. I can't see the objectives being more than this with the reported 45,000 troops on the Ukrainian border as to secure and hold the whole country he would need many more.

    Like Afghanistan, I think winning and holding against a mainly hostile population will be a whole different ball game, when the famous Ukrainian Partisans come to the fore again.

    To me this is the most dangerous current conflict strategically as once he has sorted Ukraine, he will then attempt to finish NATOs credibility and split the Western alliance and build a bridge to Kaliningrad through the Baltic countries. Where Putin is trying to rebuild an empire to prolong his time in power from a position of weakness, this will involve taking risks with unintended consequences like MH17, which makes him a particularly dangerous dictator.

  16. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rods View Post
    My take on the current situation and the removal of all of the mercenaries and the associated leaders by the 18th August is that Putin has had enough of failure by 'loose cannons' and he is about to up the ante by using a more professional leadership and much more direct chain of command with regular 'plausibly deniable' troops and if this does not stop the ATO and roll back the ATO gains, than as a last resort he will invade to achieve his objectives.

    These I think are the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts as a minimum and may also include the Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts as well, the former so he has a complete Eastern buffer and the latter so he has a direct route to Crimea, which is currently reliant on Ukrainian food and water supplies across the border. I can't see the objectives being more than this with the reported 45,000 troops on the Ukrainian border as to secure and hold the whole country he would need many more.

    Like Afghanistan, I think winning and holding against a mainly hostile population will be a whole different ball game, when the famous Ukrainian Partisans come to the fore again.

    To me this is the most dangerous current conflict strategically as once he has sorted Ukraine, he will then attempt to finish NATOs credibility and split the Western alliance and build a bridge to Kaliningrad through the Baltic countries. Where Putin is trying to rebuild an empire to prolong his time in power from a position of weakness, this will involve taking risks with unintended consequences like MH17, which makes him a particularly dangerous dictator.
    An interesting take for a number of reasons:

    1. Western leaders have individually attempted move than 14 times in private conversations with Putin and the last being Merkel who bluntly told him to confess up as the evidence is clearly there that he is supporting the separatists with weapons/money and fighters.

    All ignored especially Merkels' attempt yesterday and now responded to by the Russian news agency RIA by the speaker for Putin---notice not responded to by Putin himself.

    2. The use since 12 August of Russian GRU/SF units in attempting to free encircled separatists and the sending of an armored convoy into the Ukraine this week.

    3. The ever increasing Russian ground and massively modern AD units literally up to the Ukrainian border.

    4. The lack of a policy speech Putin was to give in the Crimea that was hyped before he left Moscow but was not given Crimea which surprised some.

    5. Putin cannot afford a loss and his popularity numbers have actually plateaued and have not been increasing.

    6. The costs to Russia in supporting the Crimea with food and water supplies is being totally overlooked by the West--they are actually costly and Russia does not have the financial abilities they promised the people in the Crimea.

    7. The propaganda war has been massively increased in the last five days and the numbers supporting direct assistance to the Russians living in the eastern Ukraine are now climbing and we all know Putin "listens" to the numbers.

    NATO's response today against any future "little green men" introduced into NATO countries especially the Baltics and Poland has been publicly announced.

  17. #197
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    Hi,

    I agree with all of the points you have raised above.

    I've just been reading the Reuters press release on the NATO response to 'little green men', which is good where they will consider it an article 5 scenario.

    I'm convinced that the economy is taking second place with Putin where he can play 'we are all in this together card' when it comes to hardship, which is why he has made the food ban a pre-emptive strike. He will also hope that this will split the current united EU sanctions front and it looks like he maybe succeeding with this to a degree.

    Taking over the East of the country is somewhat of a poisoned chalice, where he would gain oil and gas, some of the critical military equipment suppliers to Russia and a very inefficient outdated industrial sector which requires either major investment (unlikely) or continued subsidies.

    To me the west's weakness in their response to Ukraine has been in 4 areas:

    1. Not calling it what it is, a war conducted by Russia against Ukraine. What is is not: A popular uprising, a separatist movement or a civil war, where this is what Russia want people to believe.

    2. The timid response by the western world's press by playing at even handed reporting role on mainly Russia's terms.

    3. The West trying to avoid applying any sanctions as it is a more difficult political route than doing nothing. The EU have been the worst for this and the Canadians the quickest and most robust (but this might be due to the 3m Ukrainians that live in Canada?).

    4. Not supplying lethal aid to Ukraine, where they have an army, prepared to fight a proxy war against an aggressor nation that is in the West's strategic interest for them to win.

    I think the only way that Putin and Russia are going to be contained long term is through regime change and the best way for this is through sanctions and for Western Europe finding and implementing alternative sources of energy, where Russia is an unreliable supplier with considerable political baggage. The economy is his Achilles heel, with food shortages in 1917 and 1989-91 both causing regime change and Putin has a tacit agreement with the electorate to have a free hand as long as standards of living rise every year. This is one of the reasons he has recently committed to doubling Moscow Government Officials wages between now and 2018.

  18. #198
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    More Russian tanks moving towards uncontrolled Ukrainian Izvarino border crossing point.

    http://en.inforesist.org/media-a-con...no-in-ukraine/

  19. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rods View Post
    direct route to Crimea, which is currently reliant on Ukrainian food and water supplies across the border.
    Bulls#!t.
    1. Nothern Crimean Canal (which brought Dnieper waters to Crimea)has been closed in April.

    http://www.unian.net/politics/911983...tml#ad-image-0

    http://www.golos.com.ua/Article.aspx?id=329304

    to be honest, I don't know whether it's open or still closed now.

    2. Ukrainian food is already partially forbidden in Crimea, according to Ukrainian media.

    http://economics.unian.net/agro/9498...-kollapsa.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Rods View Post
    Not calling it what it is, a war conducted by Russia against Ukraine. What is is not: A popular uprising, a separatist movement or a civil war, where this is what Russia want people to believe.
    Another load of BS. You don't even bothered to spend half an hour to investigate separatists political agenda and beliefs.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-17-2014 at 09:21 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    In the face of countless videos/photos/journalist reports/voice intercepts/NATO statements and arrests by the SBU of countless Russian fighters it still seems Ruyssia cannot for some strange reason jump over the razor and openly admit that yes they have been supplying weapons/fighters/ammunition to the separatists.

    JAL shot down arguments version 3.

    Guess this is the Russian answer to Merkel demanding Putin Russia finally admit their support to the separatists.

    Notice they still in their press releases push the civilian disaster crisis.

    From RIA today:

    MOSCOW, August 17 (RIA Novosti) -Russia is not sending any military equipment to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

    "We have repeatedly said that no equipment is supplied there," Peskov said in an interview with the Govorit Moskva radio station.

    Earlier, Donetsk Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko reported that militia had received some 150 combat vehicles, including 30 tanks, but did not specify where the equipment had come from.

    Moscow has repeatedly rejected accusations of interfering in the situation in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that before accusing Russia, it is necessary to present real evidence of Moscow’s alleged interference in the Ukrainian crisis.

    Numerous reports by Kiev have not received any confirmation so far.

    Since mid-April, Kiev has been conducting a military operation against the southeastern regions of Ukraine that had refused to recognize the legitimacy of the new government after February coup.

    Since the start of the operation, nearly 1,400 people have been killed and more than 4,000 wounded in the region, including about 2,600 civilians and 29 children, according to a report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). At least 117,000 people have been forcibly displaced.

    NOTE: Russian sources ie Interfax/RIA/RT have claimed in fact over 500K refugees so it is interesting they now accept UN numbers.

    Russia has repeatedly condemned Kiev’s actions and urged for peaceful dialogue with representatives of Ukraine’s southeastern regions.
    At some point, why not just act decisively and invade? I think long term, that is a disaster for Russia. But this is also a disaster for Russia. The only difference is in one disaster is you get to have some part of eastern Ukraine.

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