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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #2141
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Now at 16 hours:

    By close attention to the bolded sentences as therein lies the core future conflict as the Ukrainian President will never be able to sell the giving up of a town that lay behind the 15 Sept demarcation line---his own civil society would disown him after the Maidan.

    Ukraine deal. Vladimir Putin: I'd like to ask all parties to end the bloodshed. More on http://aljazeera.com pic.twitter.com/s0giOslfQO

    #Putin: We agreed on ceasefire from 00:00 Feb.15 - demarcation line, agreed upon on September 15th of last year. pic.twitter.com/BAS2RjqO6Y

    BUT is the really BIG BUT:
    Putin says Ukraine, rebels yet to reach deal on Ukrainian pullout from strategic eastern town.
    SO just what the heck does this Putin statement mean--?
    Putin: Russian Military specialists will give an opinion on the Debaltsevehttp://liveuamap.com/en/2015/12-febr...ists-will-give …SO really how can one talk of the 15 Sept demarcation line where this town is clearly Ukrainian and NOW state it is disputed?

    HERE we go again ---so if the town is under dispute just how does he then expect the Ukrainians to accept giving up a town that lay behind the 15 Sept demarcation line---he simply cannot “lose”.
    Simple prediction until 0:00 Sunday morning:

    Heavy fighting especially around Debaltseve which is interesting as the Russians believe it is "surrounded" and Ukrainian volunteer commanders are saying they are still coming and going through various rat runs the Russians seem to not have under their control and the Ukrainian artillery strikes have been hitting Russian units anytime they present a large enough target especially their artillery and tanks.

    The southern counteroffensive did in fact reestablish the Minsk demarcation line the Russians had crossed over as they troops in that region had been weakened when they moved northward to Debaltseve --also seems there is now fighting in the central region by the UA to push back to the original demarcation line and to draw Russian support away from Debaltseve.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 11:09 AM.

  2. #2142
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Simple prediction until 0:00 Sunday morning:

    Heavy fighting especially around Debaltseve which is interesting as the Russians believe it is "surrounded" and Ukrainian volunteer commanders are saying they are still coming and going through various rat runs the Russians seem to not have under their control and the Ukrainian artillery strikes have been hitting Russian units anytime they present a large enough target especially their artillery and tanks.

    The southern counteroffensive did in fact reestablish the Minsk demarcation line the Russians had crossed over as they troops in that region had been weakened when they moved northward to Debaltseve --also seems there is now fighting in the central region by the UA to push back to the original demarcation line and to draw Russian support away from Debaltseve.
    Here comes the next Russian mercenary dispute---Putin "claims" Debaltseve is "surrounded" BUT:

    Putin tells "military experts" to figure out what to do in Debaltseve where Ukrainians surrounded but say they're not http://slon.ru/fast/world/putin-poru...-1214696.xhtml

    The Ukrainian version seems to be the truth as there is video footage showing them coming and going with relative ease for a war zone.

    Pro-Russian fighter reaction to BBC team in Donetsk (unofficial remark):"We won't stop fighting because so many of our people have died".

    Same fighter goes on to state:
    Pro-Russian fighter reax to BBC in Donetsk:"There won't be any ceasefire because Poroshenko doesn't have full control over the armed groups"

    Just what the heck does this mean in diplomatic language?
    #Minsk deal wasn’t signed by France/Russia/Germany/Ukraine , but rather ”a verbal agreement“ - FM Steinmeier”
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 11:08 AM.

  3. #2143
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    #Russian FSB SOF “Alpha” in #Uglegorskpic.twitter.com/JlyIeBKnqb http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/12-febr...ssian-fsb-sof- …“alpha”--in-uglegorsk

    Putin tries to clean up his internal Russian oligarch mess:
    Russian detectives search the apartment of Konstantin Malofeyev, the alleged sponsor of East Ukraine unrest http://m.tvrain.ru/articles/_mvd_pro..._u_vtb-381838/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 11:08 AM.

  4. #2144
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    Ukraine Crisis
    A Time Bomb Wrapped in a Ukrainian Peace Deal

    Leonid Bershidsky
    Feb 12, 2015 7:08 AM EST

    When world leaders pull an all-nighter, something has to come out of it. What came out of the 17-hour, Ironman-level endurance test in Minsk is a cease-fire deal for eastern Ukraine that mitigates the Kiev government's defeat in a war it could not have won, gives Russian-backed rebels two days to make final territorial gains and freezes the conflict until next year.

    The challenge now is to make this cease-fire stick where previous ones didn't. It's not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has proven to be an unreliable negotiating partner in recent months, will stand by the few concessions he made. If he can be held to them, it will be a major diplomatic victory for German Chancellor Angela Merkel. My bet, however, is that this is not the final round of high-level talks: the deal resulting from the negotiating marathon is too contradictory to work long-term.

    Two separate documents came out of the meeting: an empty declaration, in which the negotiating parties affirm "full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," and a three-page, 11-point document purporting to be a roadmap to the implementation of last September's cease-fire agreement. It is, in fact, a new deal, more favorable to the Russian-backed rebels than the September agreement.

    According to it, fighting is to cease at midnight, Feb. 15. The Ukrainian military is to pull back its artillery at least 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the current separation line, which the rebels have moved significantly in recent months:

    Pro-Russian rebel wounded on frontline disappointed about #minsk agreement, says soon ready to fight as kamikaze

    Ukraine military spokesperson says 50 Russian tanks, 40 MLRS rocket launchers, 40 APCs crossed the border last nighthttp://bit.ly/1zy4zzy

    Russia's Grad,Tornado rocket systems, tanks break into #Ukraine at night – #ATO press centre http://belsat.eu/en/articles/grad-to...-press-centre/ … pic.twitter.com/QnRu7i82Wo

    Heavy Fighting Reported Northeast of Mariupol http://bit.ly/1zy4zzy

    Latest from Semenchenko on Debaltseve: Russian reinforcement (7 tanks) engaging ATO forces by Logvinovo & Lozovo

    He says Battalion Donbas held the area for some time but then several Russian tanks and infrantry started a counterattack.
    Battles continue

    The pocket of #Debaltseve is still closed,Semenchenko reports.
    Situation around #Lohynove "constantly changing",heavy Rus attacks

    Russians claim they hold #Lohynove and the Ukrainian offensive to retake it earlier today failed.
    Hard to verify. pic.twitter.com/y0VgY8o74A

    Former Russian Intelligence Officers Behind Boisto “Track II” Talks – and Now the Flawed Minsk Agreement | http://www.interpretermag.com/former...nsk-agreement/

    #Wow!
    Looks like the Ukrainian army is using ballistic missiles to cut Russian reinforcement lines near #Lohvynove.
    pic.twitter.com/OVPYYsXWh0

    Terrorists shell Shyrokyne presumably from Sakhanka. #Azov helps evac civilians to #Mariupol https://www.facebook.com/azov.batalion pic.twitter.com/osqGEOQVkC

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MnNU3YNs0I … Diff messages used by #Russians+#Russia TV to demoralize defenders of #Ukraine's #Debaltseve.pic.twitter.com/BjGOCFQWjA

    Russian military in Donbas dressed in uniforms of Ukrainian soldiers - read on - http://uatoday.tv http://uatoday.tv/news/russian-milit...rs-408924.html

    that Putin agreed to this: " Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment," should put to rest debate about Russian role.

    On day of #Minsk peace talks, #Russia holds largest ever nuclear missile manuevers- Manuevershttp://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../26844543.html

    Again. A stream of artillery echoing over #Donetsk. Alright, no ceasefire yet, but will it really be enforced 15 Feb.?

    Int Min Avakov: Police intercepts militants' calls proving DPR shelled Donetsk bus station yday killing 6, wounding 8 http://youtu.be/v7PmyYvLVLE

    Kremlin war cult continues with Dugin's "inspiration" recruitment posters throughout RUpic.twitter.com/KxfppcWpSf

    Interesting read in retrospect. Old John Mearsheimer article from the 90s saying Ukraine shouldn't give up its nukes: http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0020.pdf
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 02-12-2015 at 07:50 PM.

  5. #2145
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    A New Ukraine Ceasefire? Our Summary And Analysis

    James Miller February 12, 2015


    The big news of the day is the apparent diplomatic breakthrough that promises to be the first step toward ending the crisis in Ukraine. The deal was negotiated in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. But will the deal really bring about a ceasefire?

    For our complete breakdown and the latest news about Ukraine, see our live coverage: Ukraine Live Day 360: Ceasefire Announced After All-Night Minsk Talks. Below is our summary of the Minsk agreements and our analyses of the key points of the deal:

    Hypothetically, the deal calls for:
    •the withdrawal of heavy artillery and rockets from behind the “line of contact,” the front lines of battle.
    •the withdrawal of all foreign fighters.
    •the return of all POWs on both sides, and amnesty for any who have committed crimes.
    •the restoration of social benefits, local elections in accordance to the Ukrainian constitution, and taxation to the areas currently controlled by the Russian-backed rebels.
    •the return of control of the border to the Ukrainian military.
    •the monitoring of the deal by the OSCE.

    The problem — it’s not clear that either side is using the same definitions for any of the terms I’ve described above.
    •Putin says there are no Russian troops in Ukraine (there are), and so will he withdraw troops he says are not there? Last time most of the troops and tanks stayed, and Putin called them local fighters.
    •THE BIG PROBLEM? The ceasefire starts on Saturday, the fighting appears to be raging ahead of the ceasefire, and there is a big dispute about the line of demarcation. Ukrainian troops are nearly surrounded in a town called Debaltsevo, northeast of Donetsk. Putin says that the rebels believe that according to this deal those soldiers will “lay down their arms.” Ukraine appears to disagree. And so if fighting continues there, then the ceasefire will be broken before it has begun, which in the past has been used as an excuse by the Russians and their proxies to continue the fight everywhere.
    •A key POW is Nadiya Savchenko, a Ukrainian airforce pilot captured by rebels, kidnapped across the border into Russia, and who is now facing murder charges. Moscow does not view her as a POW, but Ukraine does? Will she be released? She’s on her 62nd day of hunger strike, so if she is not released she may soon die.
    •The border areas that are no longer in control of the Ukrainian military are deep inside the territory of Russian-backed fighters. Since the separatists believe that a key provision of this agreement is the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from separatist-controlled areas, how are these two parts of the deal compatible?
    •Ukraine may not have the authority to give amnesty to those responsible for war crimes or those who shot down civilian airliner MH17. How will that play out in the Netherlands, since so many of the MH17 victims were Dutch? The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs is apparently outraged by the deal that might give amnesty to those who recklessly killed so many of their own citizens.

    We were skeptical of the last ceasefire deal inked in Minsk, but on the surface this one looks even more likely to fail.

    #Minsk agreement in one picture, via @guardian pic.twitter.com/A3M5XYqS1u
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-12-2015 at 05:42 PM.

  6. #2146
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    Lysenko: The enemy continues to strengthen its forces in most dangerous areas, especially in NE Luhansk region & in direction of #Debaltseve

    "Local pro-Russian separatists"
    #Debaltseve #Ukraine feb 10th, 2015.
    pic.twitter.com/4ACK130uPk

    #Ukraine Security Services captured "Grandfather" who gave soldiers bomb in honey jar #Luhansk http://translate.googleusercontent.c...hGanLDqwR4xLCw … pic.twitter.com/wYXXmGhZgy

    In the village of Širokìno terrorists have suffered significant losses in manpower and retreated. 20 dead

    Ceasefire: Nothing more than another tactical pause enabling RUS proxies to resupply with ammo and fuel as both in short supply thus the new 14th “aid” convoy with 170 trucks has been announced.

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    Kiev lost lot of soldiers and equipment during last month according to #DPR . 2300 soldiers and 179 tanks. http://tass.ru/en/world/777039 #Donbas

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNv4gFQbp5c … After a few barks,#Putin's lapdog journos didn't fare so well.#MinskSummit pic.twitter.com/VRDhVxL0zd

    #Izvarino: Militants tried to penetrate to Russia but were shot up http://www.kr-news.ru/news/47954-nov...rotaranili-kpphttp://youtu.be/VqGUtQEmYoA pic.twitter.com/uewovueWHn

    #RUSSIA VIDEO "Fighting in #Logvinovo/#Lohvynove"WITH GAS STATION THERE? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9TNtTbvGpQ … #Debaltseve pic.twitter.com/NK6vIqVp7j

  8. #2148
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    Even Romania is getting threatened by Russia these days.

    Russia warns Romania

    World | nineoclock | February 12th, 2015 at 9:00 PM

    The Head of the Centre for Political and Military Studies in Moscow, Lieutenant – Colonel Vladimir Evseev, says that if Romania, which is a NATO member, lets itself dragged in the confrontation of the North-Atlantic Alliance and Russia, military troops will be forced to neutralize certain military targets on the territory of our country.

    Moscow has also made a list of these targets, and the list also includes the future command center to be positioned by NATO on Romania’s territory.

    “On the territory of Crimea, a group of well-trained and autonomous terrestrial armed forces is being formed. Various devices will be available there, able to neutralize all possible threats. Unfortunately, if Romania lets herself dragged in this kind of confrontation, it is impossible not to put various military bases in Romania on the list of targets to be neutralized with various kinds of weapons. After military evaluations made by Russia, the military bases about to be built in Romania will provide the opportunity for more than missile defence devices. Russia is terribly worried that cruise missiles may be launched there as well, or similar devices. Russia will be forced to react not only to the appearance of command center, but also to that of any weapon deposits or any other kind of military infrastructure. We know that offensive potential may be created in Romania as well, this is why we will also seek means to annihilate the Romanian military fleet as well. I think that the confrontation will increase between our countries and unfortunately, we are entitled to have this opinion”, Vladimir Evseev, the Head of the Centre for Political and Military Studies in Moscow declared to Liviu Iurea, TVR correspondent in Moscow.

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    ATO Staff says #Debaltseve is not encircled, fierce fighting is on around Lohvynove, D.-Artemivsk road is Ukr control http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/02/12/7058339/

    #Putin expects 8k #Ukraine troops encircled at #Debaltseve to surrender to #Russia.
    No joke!
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/26...-to-surrender/ … pic.twitter.com/T66hFlEB6k

    Purgin hopes Minsk helps create a future "where Poroshenko is in prison and Turchynov & Yatsenyuk have been shot." http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/ce...lks#.rhYz6LxBp

    The Rus army "Battalion August" prepares for an attack north of #Debaltseve severaly days ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1toEVNb4nww … pic.twitter.com/hBkHxVm59s

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    Reference the so called surrounded town of Debaltseve that Putin announced this morning "should lay down their arms and surrender".

    Ukrainian soldiers took Lohvynove by assault Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway unblk

    « on: Today at 11:16:47 am »


    Ukrainian soldiers unblocked the Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway near Lohvynove.

    This was announced by MP and Donbas battalion commander Semen Semenchenko on his Facebook page, Censor.NET reports.

    "Ukrainian Army's units took Lohvynove by assault. The very Lohvynove that is blocking the Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway. Some minor centers of resistance remain, which are being currently neutralized," he wrote.

    Read more: Debaltseve salient. Operational environment as of Feb. 12, 2 a.m. from Butusov

    According to Semenchenko, units of the Donbas battalion are mopping up the village and its vicinity close to the road.

    "F*ck Putin with his Debaltseve entrapment. Glory to Ukraine!" he summed up.

  11. #2151
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Reference the so called surrounded town of Debaltseve that Putin announced this morning "should lay down their arms and surrender".

    Ukrainian soldiers took Lohvynove by assault Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway unblk

    « on: Today at 11:16:47 am »


    Ukrainian soldiers unblocked the Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway near Lohvynove.

    This was announced by MP and Donbas battalion commander Semen Semenchenko on his Facebook page, Censor.NET reports.

    "Ukrainian Army's units took Lohvynove by assault. The very Lohvynove that is blocking the Artemivsk-Debaltseve motorway. Some minor centers of resistance remain, which are being currently neutralized," he wrote.

    Read more: Debaltseve salient. Operational environment as of Feb. 12, 2 a.m. from Butusov

    According to Semenchenko, units of the Donbas battalion are mopping up the village and its vicinity close to the road.

    "F*ck Putin with his Debaltseve entrapment. Glory to Ukraine!" he summed up.
    Putin signed ceasefire in the belief #Debaltseve "will lay down arms and stop putting up resistance" | https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/26...-to-surrender/

    Russian lies! @SputnikInt: DPR promises "to spare their lives". Like these Ukrainian POWs they murdered? #Debaltseve pic.twitter.com/SfXoOMtkE3

    These are 4 of possibly 100s of heavy reasons why Ukraine can't reopen the pocket.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx8lF08x_c4 … pic.twitter.com/0KhMiiFK6x
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-12-2015 at 07:53 PM.

  12. #2152
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    Minsk-2 text explicitly says Tornado-S MLRS systems to be w/drawn from front line. Oops. Only Russia fields it. Is Moscow admitting role?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 10:17 PM.

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    Pro-Kremlin commentator says new Minsk agreements reflect rebel "victory" on the ground. http://daily.rbc.ru/opinions/politic...ody%5D-%5Bnews

    Russian TV showing a lot of criticism of Minsk 2 deal. No one believes Ukr will comply with it. Very unlikely this deal is implemented
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 10:18 PM.

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    Over the last four months of fighting we seemed to have forgotten the new Russian UW military doctrine "New Generation Warfare".

    "The big fear for NATO is that Mr Putin turns his hybrid warfare against a member country" stwierdza @TheEconomist http://www.economist.com/news/briefi...-confrontation

    With all due respect, I beg to differ; these "local rebels" arrived in Slovyansk on April 12 pic.twitter.com/GjYzNJGILg

    Report Warns #Russia's #HybridWarfare In #Ukraine Could Inspire Others http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../26842566.html

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    US particularly concerned with escalation of fighting today, inconsistent with the spirit of the accord.: http://wh.gov/ibks0 @whitehouse

    Obvious from Minsk 2 agreement that Putin is still pursuing his effort to change trade and cooperation agreement between EU and Ukraine.

    The Kremlin will use Minsk 2 to impose its veto right on Ukraine's foreign (as well as domestic ) policy. @OSW_eng
    http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/...-fragile-truce
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2015 at 10:18 PM.

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    Default Two maps that show what expansion means

    Via Twitter and I think from a German site.
    davidbfpo

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    Dozens of tanks roll across #Ukraine border from #Russia ...during 'peace' talks http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10041421.html … pic.twitter.com/52J0XQd23w

    The ink didn't dry on the #Minsk II agreement before Russia hinted on breaking it. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...sk-talks/#6801 … pic.twitter.com/0zUK28e6Dv

    In Mińsk Putin managed to avoid further sanctions and arms deliveries to UA,maintaining the leverage on UA politics: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...re?tid=HP_more

    #Transistria: frozen USSR relic on EU borders full of mafia, weapons smuggling, KGB and #Russian "peacekeepers" http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ol/495456.html

    #Minsk agreements extremely weak -- #Lithuania's President http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/1...ias-president/

    RAND Experts Discuss the Options for #Ukraine | RAND #Russia http://www.rand.org/blog/2015/02/ran...um=rand_social

    #Ukraine: Funerals of the #Russian Army in #Donetsk region, which is, of course, not there according to #Kremlin pic.twitter.com/TI0ll3v6ed

    Whoa. Video purports to show intense shelling in #Luhansk tonight, explosions lighting the sky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ip_7huoBBQ
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-13-2015 at 08:16 AM.

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    Oh Russia “@SputnikInt: #US training of #Ukraine National Guard may have big impact - experts
    http://bit.ly/1AhEUCh pic.twitter.com/FILFo3vWdo”

    Intense artillery shellings in #Donetsk #Donbass out of control on the morning after #Minsk

    These are the elite Russian troops allegedly fighting in Ukraineurl]http://buff.ly/1Ask6q0[/url] pic.twitter.com/5h6SfxtXmj

    #CNN: #Ukraine crisis created 'new reality' for #NATO alliance. Interview with FM of #Lithuania Linas #Linkevicius http://cnn.it/17hYvFG

    #Russia-n Military Units Linked to #Ukraine Hide Casualty Data — Report | News| The Moscow Times http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/515802.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-13-2015 at 08:16 AM.

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    The Ukrainian army launches missiles from #Kramatorsk.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aM3LtHuR8s
    AA or MLRS?! pic.twitter.com/KYJe8jMlwD

    VIDEO smoke trail of missiles that shot down Russian drone at #Kramatorsk.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aM3LtHuR8s
    pic.twitter.com/2nTNEekEA1

    In 16 hours of negotiations with Putin, half of the time was spent arguing whether or not Debaltseve is surrounded http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2666248 French Hollande was major supporter of Putin’s surrounding argument---strange that the two share similar opinions

    Russian troops keep fighting near #Lohvynove (yday).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJRiGrkObPg
    pic.twitter.com/ofvWCIabUf

    Indication that yesterday evenings GRAD attack on Lugansk city may have come from NNE direction. pic.twitter.com/DgNs4QbunS

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    #Ukrainian military is shooting down UAVs over #Kramatorsk http://liveuamap.com/en/201513-febru...down-uavs-over … pic.twitter.com/yDGOg7ZG60

    First GRAPHIC aftermath footage of massive #Grad attack #Luhansk last night.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH22XMogBzI … pic.twitter.com/UwCTuZbmAx v

    CCTV camera records impacts Russian attack on Kramatorsk with Smerch cluster bombs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8W9AlJj35M … pic.twitter.com/BXAGcn4rF0

    Part of the unspoken Russian threat of do not throw us into a spiral as they did with their nuclear missile exercises.
    Combat helicopters in the air - Russian drills near border of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/vGMZceZeSD http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/13-febr...russian-drills

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