Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

John Schindler @20committee Poland prepares for war:http://20committee.com/2014/10/30/po...sian-invasion/

NYT is telling you now what I told you 5 months ago:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/15/wo...F0F3EF15ADC329

Terrorists have fired at Ukr army's positions fr grenade launchers and mortars http://en.censor.net.ua/n328442

#russ mercenary fr Kaliningrad(Königsberg) killed on 27-2-15 n Mariupol #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/5idHlk90dx v @666_mancer http://twitter.com/666_mancer/status...com/5idHlk90dx

An 8th Yanukovych-era official dies in mysterious circumstances, falling to his death as neighbors reported a quarrel http://www.ukrinform.ua/ukr/news/v_o...rayonu_2032288 …

Priceless! So called DPR's head announced nationalization of runaway Yanukovych's company https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3o9cssWl8Xs … pic.twitter.com/wmVSQ3LfbV

[OUTLAW 09]

Massive Russian troop buildup is still ongoing literally right next to the Ukrainian border.

#Belgorod International Airport is being used as a Russian military transport hub. 11 March http://vk.com/photo-16555223_355833114 … pic.twitter.com/yzaM0QwOYX

More recent activity at #Belgorod International Airport by Russian Air Force Il-76MD transport RF-76558: 11 March pic.twitter.com/QUq9SZgjq3

Belgorod, Russia 14.03.2015 - Photo of Russian armory - pic.twitter.com/rZroXURKkg

Russian Air Force Il-76MD transport at #Belgorod International Airport 14 March (source: http://vk.com/belspotteam ) pic.twitter.com/x0d19qufZj

Russian troops at #Belgorod International Airport 11 March http://vk.com/photo-16555223_355832997 … pic.twitter.com/kXq9eRotvg

Russian troops, transports, helicopter at #Belgorod Airport 11 March. Ukraine? (via http://vk.com/belspotteam ) pic.twitter.com/6NhFCLtXnb

The same Russian Air Force Il-76MD transport (RF-76558) coming, (un)loading & going at #Belgorod Airport on 13 March pic.twitter.com/JULuj4QPP9

Military equipment (APCs, trucks etc) at #Belgorod railway depot (video uploaded 14 March) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irWd...ature=youtu.be …

Lysenko " Russians mass military technique on Ukrainian border" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIG7...ce=twitterfeed …

The #Belgorod--#Kharkiv axis relative to Eastern Ukraine Scenario by @Stratfor 9 March https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ga...sian-offensive … pic.twitter.com/9478C4Floz

RU-UA 'Border Preparing for War' - Gazeta.ru says RU troops moving to border, tighter border control http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2015/0..._6597853.shtml

Russian mercenaries were complaining yesterday that there were draconian control measures in place and no supplies were getting across to them—connection?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Still no news as to where Putin is or is not---journalists were told yesterday to stand by for an important announcement and yet nothing..........

Think historically the longest any Soviet and or Russia leader "disappeared" was just four days and we are now at day nine--strange.

Rumors abound now that the Russian Defense Minister has taken over---possible junta now in Moscow after the so called junta take over in Kyiv?????

Russian blogs sites and Russian twitter are running massive amounts of traffic around "rumors".

Where is Vladimir #Putin (tournament edition)?http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ament-edition/ … pic.twitter.com/EWX8zE19cg

[OUTLAW 09]

VIDEO #Putin"Somalia"terrorists in tank #Donetsk crushed car for fun w passengers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paED-DL38ME … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/a9MVNQ32f1

Reference breakaway enclave to Moldova initially taken by Russian forces:
Pridnestrovie is in talks with Moldova already, looks like they might fold after Kremlin refused to finance them.

Video of more military vehicles in #Belgorod today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LAF3aLwCEc …

And more video footage from #Belgorod BTR-82A
pic.twitter.com/3Hxw3bb9lr

Another #Russian tank from #Buryatia got lost in Ukrainian city #Bryanka. Photo via @666_mancer pic.twitter.com/xgIFtklkCQ

A transport plane in #Millerovo #Миллерово
http://cs624116.vk.me/v624116577/f035/hj5oejoASJQ.jpg …
Via @bura_tino pic.twitter.com/AoI19zbCMx

A lot of planes at
#Millerovo airport
https://pp.vk.me/c621222/v621222643/...paVqLMdAvA.jpg …
pic.twitter.com/AIBneOel92

Soldier from #Kaliningrad against the background of #Russia|n tanks in #Millerovo
https://pp.vk.me/c621921/v621921882/...Vny5-9bg2Q.jpg …
pic.twitter.com/Nd2M2FUwTO

Intensification of Russian military activity at #Russia - #Ukraine border
https://translate.google.com/transla...tml&edit-text= …

[OUTLAW 09]

#BREAKINGNEWS
"Large scale hostilities" to start soon in eastern Ukraine, LC and DNR say.
http://m.gazeta.ru/politics/2015/03/13_a_6597853.shtml …

#Russia massing troops in #Belgorod an making sure we see it, but no videos from rest of the 1000km border with #Ukraine
War or Maskirovka?

@Osce reports 18th "humanitarian" convoy from Russia to Ukraine is all fuel trucks for Army
http://www.unian.ua/politics/1055522...umkonvoji.html … pic.twitter.com/PimdpZAcl3

[OUTLAW 09]

#News
#Azov reports that Russian forces in #Bezimenne grow stronger by the day

Russian media (quoting a pro-Kremlin self-proclaimed leader) says the Rusyns in West Ukraine want autonomy from Kiev http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1828915 …

So much for being a dedicated Russian mercenary:
Ex-#Ukraine policeman/now DPR militant Vinokurov's objective for registering as refugee was to start receiving pension from Ukrainian state
Ex-Donetsk criminal investigations chief/now DPR militant Anatoliy Vinokurov registered in Mariupol as a refugee https://www.facebook.com/Vyacheslav....530490472954:0 …

Security services have confirmed the detention of suspected persons in last night's #bombing in #Odessa pic.twitter.com/8IHe3StaFY

While world guesses, where is Vlado, a huge caravan of RUS tanks/AFVs heads to #Mariupol. VIDEO http://www.informator.su/putyn-otvly...yupolya-vydeo/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Really good open source analysis from a new blog site---individual is working the Russian invasion from August 2014 and his initial work is extremely telling.

Follow @finriswolf as he releases new satellite imagery from RU-UKR border from last August https://twitter.com/finriswolf/statu...18330511667201 …

Vehicles are jam packed into the tree groves "hidden" from observation. Here further south http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...4&z=16&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/RVEdcBfDjA

Moving north we can follow tracks heading to the Internationally recognized Ukraine border http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...0&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/ITWH83OVbx

Russian breach of Ukraine border just east of village (before & after August) http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...2&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/oJd1oVLecN

Ukraine border breach #2 in this area. Most traffic stays on paths obscured by tree-lines http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...3&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/gMLCOHvdIr

[OUTLAW 09]

RUMINT concerning Putin disappearance:

Putin waiting out conflict between FSB and Kadyrov forces, Belkovsky says

2015/03/14 • Politics

Article by: Nina Jobe


In his latest statement posted on Open Russia, Belkovsky argues that Putin is facing a conflict between different security forces. Belkovsky divides these groups into the FSB (Federal Security Services) and Ramzan Kadyrov (the Putin appointed leader of Chechnya).

This is a conflict that has been going on since Putin came to power, Belkovsky claims. This is a bit disingenuous as Kadyrov has not been in power in Chechnya for 15 years. But his broader point is that much of Putin’s reputation as a strong leader has been built on his alleged success in subduing Chechnya.

On the other side of the conflict is the federal security structures (the siloviki). There are quite a lot of people in this group, and they are quite influential. Putin cannot betray this group because it would cost him his life, Belkovsky alleges.

Putin then is between a rock and a hard place. He cannot dismiss Kadyrov because his reputation is at stake. But he cannot side against the siloviki because they would overthrow him in a coup if he did.

Therefore, Putin is avoiding making a decision between the two clans, and this is the reason for his disappearance. The President hopes that the situation will be resolved in the meantime.

Putin could stay in power indefinitely as long as he stays alive, Belkovsky continues. But since nobody lives forever, at some point somebody must succeed him. This person will be the “anti-Putin”. He would have to reach some kind of deal with the West to save Russia’s economy and bring Russia back from the brink of war.

Belkovsky then again presents Prime Minister Medvedev as an this compromise figure. Yes, Medvedev acts like a fool, but this could all be an act, and the Prime Minister might well surprise us all.

Belkovsky concludes by saying that Putin’s legacy will not be great. There will be organized mourning and parades, but the transition of power will be relatively painless and no panic will ensue. The reason for this is that despite popular opinion, the Russian system is not personality-based. Rather it is more like a monarchy. Because of this there is some “guarantee of stability”, and the office is more important than the figure in it. And in due course, the Russian people will rapidly change their loyalty and love to a new leader.

I personally think Belkovsky is over-simplifying the situation here. The siloviki is not exactly a monolithic group. That being said, I think the Russian system can take some hits, and harder hits than many imagine. Putin’s image of a strong leader has been very carefully crafted for his domestic audience, but it could be taken away very quickly.

A transition to a new face does not have to be overly painful. Will there be some hiccups? Most likely. The clan system is very real, and there will be some jockeying for position and power behind the scenes. But these should not impact day to day activity or the economy in any real sense.

So this is one way that the Kremlin could wriggle out of the situation it currently finds itself in. Whether it will do so remains to be seen.


NOTE: In my opinion, Belkovsky does not speak with his own voice. He is voicing the opinion of somebody in the elite who wishes to remain anonymous. This is why his statements are important.

[OUTLAW 09]

Tymchuk 13/3: #Russia forces shell #Ukraine positions w/ weapons that R supposed 2 B withdrawn
http://maidantranslations.com/2015/0...freesavchenko/ … pic.twitter.com/ZJfc5ZIdI2

How Many Tanks Does the August Terrorist Battalion Have?: https://en.informnapalm.org/how-many...attalion-have/ … pic.twitter.com/UIdJrJWaxI

More bodies of Ukrainian soldiers pulled from Donetsk airport rubble - OSCE
http://www.unian.info/war/1055566-mo...bble-osce.html … pic.twitter.com/H4kADO1mcC

Residents of Belgorod, #Russia post photos of armoured vehicles convoys moving along their city pic.twitter.com/TlaiHaSWa0

Terrorists in #Lugansk got modern #Russian MRLS "Buratino" modification TOS-1A "Solntsepyok". Unfortunately, this is now confirmed info...

[OUTLAW 09]

Really good open source analysis from a new blog site---individual is working the Russian invasion from August 2014 and his initial work is extremely telling.

Follow @finriswolf as he releases new satellite imagery from RU-UKR border from last August https://twitter.com/finriswolf/statu...18330511667201 …

Vehicles are jam packed into the tree groves "hidden" from observation. Here further south http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...4&z=16&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/RVEdcBfDjA

Moving north we can follow tracks heading to the Internationally recognized Ukraine border http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...0&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/ITWH83OVbx

Russian breach of Ukraine border just east of village (before & after August) http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...2&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/oJd1oVLecN

Ukraine border breach #2 in this area. Most traffic stays on paths obscured by tree-lines http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...3&z=17&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/gMLCOHvdIr

Never published before satellite images of Russian border crossings to Ukraine by @finriswolf
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2...te-images.html … pic.twitter.com/vV54H4eSzg

I'm going to start tweeting never-released-to-the-public imagery of 4 separate Russian armored groups and their crossing #Ukraine border

If I disappear from Twitter after posting these new sat images, make sure to have my remains tested for polonium

[OUTLAW 09]

Over the night #Russia-backed forces violated the #ceasefire 14 times. Keep using "withdrawn" 120mm mortars https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/964957886848351 …

50% of Black Sea Coast belongs to NATO and Russia wants the other 50% . Part of Ukraine & Georgia already taken pic.twitter.com/55Jl3KlcHB

Great article in @welt sbout German volunteers fighting on the side of the pro-Russian separatists http://m.welt.de/politik/deutschland...stukraine.html … (in German)
Krieg gegen Kiew: Mehr als 100 Deutsche kämpfen in der Ostukraine http://on.welt.de/1BjFnO8 pic.twitter.com/okrkLVtIrs

#Russia sent again over 80 trucks w/ unknown content violating national, int'l law. Convoy has crossed into #Ukraine http://www.mchs.gov.ru/dop/info/smi/news/item/3542705/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

The Moscow Times ✔ @MoscowTimes
#Russia says it has the right to deploy nuclear weapons in #Crimea http://tmt-go.ru/517281 pic.twitter.com/YU1PKo7vfv

This would be a clear and distinct violation of the INF and 1994 Budapest Memorandum--but wait Russia claims they did not violation either of them.

A Dnepr-1 battalion fighter was killed in #Pisky

10:50 #Mariupol: Sounds of heavy explosions are heard from the east, 'floor and windows vibrate'

Pro-russian terrorists keep their fire at decreased level, but still shell #Ukraine's troops - #ATO press center. https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/964957886848351 …

10:59 #Shyrokyne : 120mm Mortar fire pic.twitter.com/y9FS24sWSS

#DPR's Basurin is accusing #Ukraine military of violating ceasefire 55 times in last 24 hours http://russian.rt.com/article/79584

#Picture
Ukrainian border guards confiscated numerous weapons in #Mariupol, (pro-)Russian terrorists planned to use.
pic.twitter.com/fhT4m27M6f

SBU detained enemy sniper –targeted UA soldiers in #Donetsk airport & corrected artillery fire. pic.twitter.com/cwpqkHPmxl

[OUTLAW 09]

Explosions Heard in #Mariupol, #Sakhanka is under RU fire. In The morning they shelled #Chermalyk.

Ukrainian servicemen spotted 13 enemy UAVs over the last day http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-marc...nemy-uavs-over …

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-RU militants consolidate forces in #Artemivsk, #Mariupol and #Luhansk sectors, imitating heavy arms withdrawal.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian insurgents conducted 34 armed provocations against Ukrainian military in the last 24 hours.

"@Mariupol_TV Near Mariupol militias are constantly replenished by Russian soldiers and mercenaries http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mari...aemnikami.html …"

#BreakingNews
Russian forces in #Sakhanka are heavily firing with 120 mm mortars and small arms since 6:15 this morning.

Ukrainian soldiers in #Donetsk region say militants continue shelling
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukrainian...ng-415374.html … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/VXvrTKrmSW

[OUTLAW 09]

Kremlin mouthpiece TASS laments: "Novorossiya TV reporter arrested in Ukraine" http://tass.ru/en/world/782829

Actually the SBU detained the owner/operator of the Novorssiya TV station operating inside Ukraine controlled territory as a propaganda mouthpiece for Russian TV.

Russia now changing the wording of the two separatist areas—appearing to make them “self proclaimed republics”.

So much for the Russian statements they will protect the territorial integrity of theUkraine.

"....self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR)." New wording..
http://sputniknews.com/russia/201503...#ixzz3URoJ3peU … pic.twitter.com/rwfq5MXmrB

Strelkov aka Girkin: "Putin traitor and loser, will end up like Nicholas II." http://www.znak.com/svrdl/news/2015-03-14/1036787.html … Via @RolandOliphant pic.twitter.com/WahUR4H5

Anders Östlund @andersostlund
If Putin doesn't appear for planned meeting in St. Petersburg tomorrow we can assume something has hit the fan. pic.twitter.com/sZE8eRMJxH

Notice Putin has never fully left the KGB?
I don't know #WhereIsPutin, but in 1989 he was in Dresden together w/ Matthias Warnig & Sergey Chemezov (now Rostec). pic.twitter.com/deYyKMvSbg

[OUTLAW 09]

Inside the Kremlin Troll Army Machine: Templates, Guidelines, and Paid Postshttp://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/0...army-examples/ …

As expected, the Russian media story about Rusyns in western Ukraine demanding autonomy from Kiev was fake news http://www.mukachevo.net/ua/News/view/106459 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Mehr als 100 Deutsche kmpfen in der Ost-#Ukraine. Meist Russlanddeutsche, darunter auch Ex-Bundeswehrsoldaten: http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschla...stukraine.html
More than 100 Germans fighting for separatists in eastern Ukraine http://www.dw.de/more-than-100-germa...ine/a-18316900

More than a 100 Germans are fighting with the proRussian mercenaries--it will be interesting to see exactly what the German government does upon their return---are they being questioned and or jailed as are the returning IS fighters ---for being members of a terrorist organization?????

Possible double standards??????

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears Putin is still "missing in action" while his closest advisor who formulated the Crimea takeover and the move into eastern Ukraine is "vacationing" with his family in Hong Kong the last few days since he went "missing in action".

Blogger Adagamov claims Kremlin cancelled accreditation of journos at Putin's meeting with Kyrgys president tomorrow pic.twitter.com/hOLhtYYC1i

It's now almost 2pm on a Sunday afternoon in Moscow. Seeming less and less likely the Kremlin's much-lauded "big announcement" is imminent.

Anders Aslund @anders_aslund
Death of Putin's chief bodyguard General Viktor Zolotov is widely reported on web, but no credible source is cited. Clarification is needed!

@tvrain sources are saying that #Putin is down with a flu, at his Valdai residence. Peskov refused to comment http://m.tvrain.ru/articles/peskov_o...putina-383926/ …

Russia: @Interfax - @KremlinRussia_E press secretary refuses to comment on #Putin's whereabouts pic.twitter.com/4uPDFeNB3f

Latest #Putin rumour- He came out as gay and literally no one in the Kremlin has the faintest idea what to do except lock all the doors.

We are at currently six different RUMINT reports on his beingMIA.

[OUTLAW 09]

#Footage
Russian army BTR-82A seemingly finally leaving #Belgorod to the south.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt12SfkjY2Y …
pic.twitter.com/B0ZUsdZc5T

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTbgcVAqZPU … 45 #Yekaterinburg,#Russia,paratroopers join warlord Mozgovoi("Forget #MH17") pic.twitter.com/pDcrCSRgdi

Anders Östlund @andersostlund
@RolandOliphant I believe I read Putin called Nicholas II one of the worst Russian traitors ever. Strelkov aka Girkin saying "same fate" says a lot.

A total now of 43,000 Russian troops, mercenaries and local miners and truck drivers—does that sound like “no outside assistance” as claimed by Russia/Putin??
Pro-RU terrorists have 780 tanks, 1030 APCs, 500 mortars, 420 rocket launchers, 130 anti-aircraft systems - Fedichev https://youtu.be/XPMpzEZbkCw

Number of terrorists' troops in war-torn eastern #Ukraine is 43K. About 9K of them - Russian regulars, said Fedichev https://youtu.be/XPMpzEZbkCw

The mercenaries are far better armed that the France and German armies combined when it comes to tanks, artillery and needless to say even to AD systems.

Polling some 'DNR' fighters about Lviv Chocolate cafe in Donetsk: buying coffee there means financially supporting 'fascism' in west Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Mehr als 100 Deutsche kmpfen in der Ost-#Ukraine. Meist Russlanddeutsche, darunter auch Ex-Bundeswehrsoldaten: http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschla...stukraine.html
More than 100 Germans fighting for separatists in eastern Ukraine http://www.dw.de/more-than-100-germa...ine/a-18316900

More than a 100 Germans are fighting with the proRussian mercenaries--it will be interesting to see exactly what the German government does upon their return---are they being questioned and or jailed as are the returning IS fighters ---for being members of a terrorist organization?????

Possible double standards??????

"100 Germans in ranks of pro-#Russia|n separatists.Kiev concerned about"war tourism"."http://bit.ly/1bao0dC pic.twitter.com/r9EvOaBfQl

[OUTLAW 09]

Troubling: In film on #Crimea, Putin says Russia was ready to put nukes on alert if events developed unfavorably http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2..._7013913.shtml …

Moscow Replays Rusin ‘Separatist’ Card in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia :: http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/index.php?id=

#Moscow sources confirm death of General Viktor Zolotov head of #Putin security http://translate.googleusercontent.c...rjvu7peHqqU_AA … #Putindead pic.twitter.com/nVAkMTewwZ

Translation MT @GazetaRu: Putin - we wanted Bastion antiship missile system visible from spacehttp://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2..._7013901.shtml … pic.twitter.com/zcat41O4tV

Kremlin Active Measures are getting cruder: US Intelligence Services Behind 2014 Ukraine Coup – EU MP http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015...019344666.html …

Putin has Made the New Yalta He Wants Impossible, Rubtsov Says http://ln.is/blogspot.fi/ssoyO …