Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the aid convoy there seems to be more social media reporting of new Russian weapons not seen outside Russia.

http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCon...th_machinegun/

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...215168/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

There was some interest here in the Russian Special Forces---this was just released by RT and depicts the requirements to join and their training.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBuJcAKKeXw

RF SF in the Ukraine--photo not geo tagged.

http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCon...th_machinegun/

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's measures the accuracy of your characterizations.



Yes, I have stated this fact a number of times. In contrast, you seem to ignore this fact when advocating for continued escalation in confronting Russia or in building an achiveable policy capable of fulfilling U.S. interests.



Incorrect. I have not stated that Russia "owns" eastern Europe. I have, however, stated that Russia, as a state, has material interests that it pursues with rational policy, and that these interests should be taken into account when the U.S. develops policy towards Russia.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not the exclusive nor most important U.S. interest in the world.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine is not a NATO member and by implication, the U.S. has no security obligations towards Ukraine.



What material obligations does that memorandum impose upon the U.S. in this situation?



That would be contrary to the opinion of many leading analysts in government and scholarship.



Settling that region's problems is one thing. Securing U.S. interests is another. And yes - the U.S. has to actively protect its interests in the region.



Incorrect. I never said 'appease'. I said negotiate. It's fully possible to negotiate without 'appeasment'.



Incorrect. I have said repeatedly that it is important to understand the material interests of the Russian state, and what policies they are pursuing to achieve them. Dismissing them out of hand is an error of the first order.



Incorrect. I have in fact pointed out that all of Russia's conflicts since 1991 have involved problems of ethnic nationalism (and normalizing borders and state building). I have also pointed out that Russia historically was and largely remains an imperial state that does not fully conform to the principles of Westphalian nation-statehood.



This has already been addressed more than once. Repeatedly asking the same question does not constitute an argument - it's actually a failure to undersand the argument.



How many wars end with negotiated settlments and how many end with the annihilation of one of the belligerents?

You seem fixated on the idea that I am not aware that Russia has been pursuing acts of aggression of Ukraine. I've acknowledged this many pages ago. It's time to move the argument forward. You have left many questions unanswered about the preferable U.S. outcome, what policy options are available to achieve it, and how to compel Russia to terminate the conlfict.

AP--you talk about negotiations as the way forward---this is from the close advisor to Putin and part of the core hardliners that Putin is being advised by since he threw out all of his previous liberal advisors.

And what negotiations will work with him?

MT @leonidragozin In VK post, #Kremlin ideologist Alexander #Dugin calls 4 "genocide" of #Ukraine "race of bastards" pic.twitter.com/SHNDcBpLtU

[OUTLAW 09]

BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.

If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.

I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.

BW--there has been for about three days constant blogging about Russian troops crossing over in large numbers also from the southern border area/

Yes the Ukrainians are killing large numbers but more seem to be coming over.

Then this came up this evening from a site that I have been watching and attempts to present a balance.

Maybe this is why the US is not saying a single word from the intel side.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...n-russian.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the aid convoy there has been an increase in new Russian weapons seen in the Ukraine.

Here are two more that have never been seen outside of the RF and were rumored to be in development---seems they are out of the development stage.

#Russia may be testing in #Ukraine new guided missiles Pantsir and Hermes.

https://twitter.com/RutheniaRus/stat...627264/photo/1

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/300878.html

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Abne Division that had the alleged "training accident" which killed personnel was visited this week by the Russian Defense Minister. This was the unit that had the shelled convoy.

Russia denies it's at war but it's DM awarded a Russian unit fighting in #Ukraine a medal Red Banner given for courage in combat--but the Russian press has stated a number of times it was a "training accident"?

The former Soviet Army simply cannot get out of their old habits with medals.

http://pln-pskov.ru/news/178748.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems now that they Russian FM who claims the Ukraine is constantly violating international law reference civilians cannot somehow remember that the then Soviet Union now Russia signed the GC in 1949 and the "parade" yesterday in fact violated Articles 13/14 of the GC document they signed.

Lavrov on hideous Donetsk prisoner parade: I saw nothing humiliating:https://twitter.com/astroehlein/stat...429568/photo/1

So I guess the Russian FM does not seem to think throwing eggs, throwing empty water bottles at cuffed POWs and shouting "fascists" is "nothing humiliating" when the Ukraine itself sent back quietly Russian dead and still have not displayed captured/wounded Russian military personnel who they found in a local hospital they captured.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an article over on the SWJ side that is about Peace and War and the Space In Between which goes to the heart of the Ukrainian events and in fact reflects exactly why the US appears at this point in time to have absolutely no strategy towards Russian aggression carried out under their New Generation Warfare which is supporting their political war with the Ukraine.

Highlighted is Dave Maxwell's comments:

And because they (decision makers) cannot match American military power directly, it is in this space — battlegrounds of perception, coercion, mass atrocity — that America’s enemies and adversaries prefer to operate. END QUOTE

Thinking tactically is not limited to the military. We need to be able to achieve balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means. That is the art of "doing strategy." This provides a good description why we need to think strategically vice tactically in national security decision making.

QUOTE Finally, this tactical mindset provides an explanation for the apparent failure to appreciate how to leverage military force for strategic ends. This view leads to an under-appreciation of its broader deterrent value and the role that military forces can play in shaping security environments and consolidating tactical gains to ensure progress toward policy goals. Military forces – strong land forces especially – provide reassurance and tangible presence of American commitment. One of the key insights of the recently released National Defense Panel report was to make the important point that powerful U.S. military capabilities can shape events and provide options that may, by their mere existence, deter others from taking actions that require a U.S. military response. They help to establish the conditions to allow U.S. diplomats and policymakers to engage in that space between peace and war. END QUOTE

We currently see this in the Ukraine because;

1. there is no longer a strong US military presence in Europe that allows for leveraging a response to Russia--and yes air power does not equate to land power---the lack of this "military" projection power lends itself to what?

2. when a red line is set ie strong statements made about "unauthorized aid shipments" crossing a border when one country has not approved them---and then there is just a press conference statement and then the Russians make statements they are sending a second shipment which in fact is a not to subtle statement the Ukraine is ours to do what we want --- the US statements then lends itself to what?

3. when the US intelligence community states they has solid missile tracks fired against MH17 and that Russia troops and artillery have crossed into the Ukraine and then zero information to back up those statements is released--lends itself to what?

To the Russians US actions actually imply acceptance of the Russian position--ie the Crimea is part and parcel of Russia as is eastern/southern Ukraine as is the Baltics and Poland.

But when the current administration seems to think soft power ie words and sanctions will suffice to reign in a rouge actor---then along the way they seemed to have forgotten the use of military power to project one's views/voice in a crisis.

Or worse ---there is no will to even get engaged as the stated end appears to be to difficult to achieve.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian Army has taken Russian military prisoners from the 98th Division, 331st VDV Company.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...90326160154624

Per preliminary info 8 KIA in #Russian army 98th Guards Div Airborne 331st VDV Cmpny. Survivors came to #Ukraine CP, surrendered. Didn't know they're in UKR.

If you miss a relative from 98th Guards Airborne Division of the Russian armed forces. Ask for the Ukrainian A3OB battalion.
pic.twitter.com/iMew2IH47c


Does anyone here at SWJ have an explanation just why it is the Ukrainian Army, European bloggers and a pair of open source set of sites that seems to be better informed than all of the European leaders ie the Germans and the US CIA/NSA/DIA---all together?

The US IC "claimed" to have missile tracks on MH17 and "claimed" to know Russian military personnel and equipment are in the Ukraine but then nothing is released "allowing" then the Russians to state---"see even the Americans are lying" and "spreading dis-information" about Russian intentions.

So for all the billions spent on the US IC---it has been for exactly what?

Two days ago the blogger world picked up this tactical shift and yet Merkel talks about a "ceasefire" in Kiev and nothing comes out of DC/Obama except for two press comments about the "aid shipment". It is almost like the current administration cannot walk and chew gum literally at the same time.

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of opening new front in separatist war in southeast: http://reut.rs/1okYOQq
pic.twitter.com/5ejtXPW1wf

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Abne Division that had the alleged "training accident" which killed personnel was visited this week by the Russian Defense Minister. This was the unit that had the shelled convoy.

Russia denies it's at war but it's DM awarded a Russian unit fighting in #Ukraine a medal Red Banner given for courage in combat--but the Russian press has stated a number of times it was a "training accident"?

The former Soviet Army simply cannot get out of their old habits with medals.

http://pln-pskov.ru/news/178748.html …

Another Russian combat medal/honors handed out by this time Putin--this award is/was never given to a military unit in peacetime in Russia or the former Soviet Union.

#putin has awarded Suvorov medal to troopers of Chernigov brigade, which is given only for a military merit and never awarded in peace time.

[OUTLAW 09]

Actual crossing now of Russian troops in the Mariupol area or "regrouped mercenaries" coming back in from Russia--reported heavily Saturday and Sunday by bloggers---note nothing from the Germans and or the US?

Panic Reported In Mariupol After Reports of Nearby Russian Invasion http://bit.ly/1spfIRu

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...50c_story.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is still denying the existence of Russian military in the Ukraine and yet their own bloggers are in fact compiling lists taken from Russian social media of those killed in the Ukraine.

Russ blogger compiled lists of soc media profiles of RU soldiers fighting and killed in Ukraine http://kado4nikov.livejournal.com/18806.html http://kado4nikov.livejournal.com/18424.html

Seems as if the Russian social media is driving this to a degree not seen before in Russia---as fast as Russian soldiers are identified their social media pages are being deleted and the families are told the burials are to be kept secret---the Kursk all over again.

A Facebook group has been formed entitled “Cargo 200 from Ukraine to Russia” on which people try to gather all information available about contracted and conscripted soldiers killed in Ukraine. The starkest message reads: “Russian: Is your son, brother, friend serving in the army, especially the paratroopers. CONTACT HIM URGENTLY! MAYBE HE’S ALREADY BEEN KILLED? After all the Russian army is so very definitely “not fighting” on Ukrainian territory!.”

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an article over on the SWJ side that is about Peace and War and the Space In Between which goes to the heart of the Ukrainian events and in fact reflects exactly why the US appears at this point in time to have absolutely no strategy towards Russian aggression carried out under their New Generation Warfare which is supporting their political war with the Ukraine.

Highlighted is Dave Maxwell's comments:

And because they (decision makers) cannot match American military power directly, it is in this space — battlegrounds of perception, coercion, mass atrocity — that America’s enemies and adversaries prefer to operate. END QUOTE

Thinking tactically is not limited to the military. We need to be able to achieve balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means. That is the art of "doing strategy." This provides a good description why we need to think strategically vice tactically in national security decision making.

QUOTE Finally, this tactical mindset provides an explanation for the apparent failure to appreciate how to leverage military force for strategic ends. This view leads to an under-appreciation of its broader deterrent value and the role that military forces can play in shaping security environments and consolidating tactical gains to ensure progress toward policy goals. Military forces – strong land forces especially – provide reassurance and tangible presence of American commitment. One of the key insights of the recently released National Defense Panel report was to make the important point that powerful U.S. military capabilities can shape events and provide options that may, by their mere existence, deter others from taking actions that require a U.S. military response. They help to establish the conditions to allow U.S. diplomats and policymakers to engage in that space between peace and war. END QUOTE

We currently see this in the Ukraine because;

1. there is no longer a strong US military presence in Europe that allows for leveraging a response to Russia--and yes air power does not equate to land power---the lack of this "military" projection power lends itself to what?

2. when a red line is set ie strong statements made about "unauthorized aid shipments" crossing a border when one country has not approved them---and then there is just a press conference statement and then the Russians make statements they are sending a second shipment which in fact is a not to subtle statement the Ukraine is ours to do what we want --- the US statements then lends itself to what?

3. when the US intelligence community states they has solid missile tracks fired against MH17 and that Russia troops and artillery have crossed into the Ukraine and then zero information to back up those statements is released--lends itself to what?

To the Russians US actions actually imply acceptance of the Russian position--ie the Crimea is part and parcel of Russia as is eastern/southern Ukraine as is the Baltics and Poland.

But when the current administration seems to think soft power ie words and sanctions will suffice to reign in a rouge actor---then along the way they seemed to have forgotten the use of military power to project one's views/voice in a crisis.

Or worse ---there is no will to even get engaged as the stated end appears to be to difficult to achieve.

It seems that the WSJ agrees with me:

Their article today under the title is really worth a read.

Obama's Bitter Trans-Atlantic Legacy

Eastern and Central Europe believes in U.S. leadership, but Washington doesn't.

What is interesting is that there has been virtually no Obama comments on the Russia Ukraine clash since the IS marched into Iraq.

And Merkel is proposing exactly what Putin wanted from the Ukraine in the first place.
1. no EU
2. no NATO
3. federation and decentralizing
4. Ukraine membership in the EEC

So we have now Merkel ie Germany and France supporting Putin, we have the US seemingly refusing to display to the world exactly what they see the Russians doing to avoid calling Russia out and we have both the UK/US completely ignoring the simple fact they signed the Ukraine Budapest Memorandum and took nuclear weapons away from the Ukraine and now leave the Ukraine on their own.

Today we have the Baltics, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria asking for missile protection from Russia and NATO bases on their territory---the rest of NATO's response---no----so really is there an Article 5 left in NATO?

So again what was the US strategy?

Some commenters here should go back and reread the comments by JMA to this thread to really understand where he was coming from.

[OUTLAW 09]

The Russian version of "contract soldiers":

Interesting that US media does not pick this up.

A journal in Dagestan called chernovik.net had an article by Ruslan Magomedov dated 22 August titled "Cargo 200," which is the Russian military term for the bodies of those killed in battle. It said that "dozens" of Dagestanis had died in battle who were on contract with the RF Defense Ministry.

How did Dagestani soldiers end up in Ukraine? Their relatives said the officers would make offers to contract soldiers to go to the front:

The offer would be of the voluntary-coercive kind: they are volunteers, but they go, fearing that the army will tear up their contract if they don't. The travel to Ukraine is offered exclusively to contract soldiers, but according to Chernovik's sources, there can also be draftees among them (the latter get contracts signed after a half year of draft service, thus circumventing the formalities).

"Those who refuse may, for example, be brought out on the parade ground and in front of the line-up be accused of cowardice and so on. That is, they put moral pressure on them," a contract soldier who preferred to remain anonymous told Chernovik. Another source claimed that the contract soldiers who were killed in Ukraine are listed in documents as having been killed during training or as having been dismissed, after the fact. So that way it doesn't show up as a loss in battle, and the relatives cannot count on payments from the government or insurance companies.

Sources told Chernovik that the soldiers are on a kind of "shuttle". They repeatedly go in and out of Ukraine. The sources didn't provide names, but said that contract soldiers from the following towns had been killed in artillery fire from the Ukrainian ATO [anti-terrorist operation]: Kazanishche, Atlanaul (a village in Buynaksk District) and Shagad (Khasavyurt District). One other contract soldier from Buynaksk is missing. There are also unconfirmed reports of "Cargo 200" in Kizilyurt, Belidzhi (Derbent District) and Aksay (Khasavyurt District).

Chernovik says that two tank regiments have headed to the Russian-Ukrainian border, and there is also a report of the deployment of Navy contractors from the Caspian Sea.

[kaur]

Ukrainian video with arrested Russian paratrooper from 98th paratrooper division. Soldier explainst that 16th August started the process. It was told that unit ist going going to Rostov. 17th was made echelon and they drove to Rostov. Close to Rostov unit established camp. Drivers painted white circles and hided numbers of vechicles. Was told that exercise begins with opfor. Then "exercise" started. His vechicle was stopped buy incoming fire. Vechicle was broken. Then he understood that this is not exercise. His whole company moved to Ukraine territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR4viAfweHw#t=74

This is his squad and jailed guys are circled http://avmalgin.livejournal.com/4830578.html

Russian MoD officer explains that those Russian paratroopers were partolling near border and by accident entered Ukraine. He added that this has happened with Ukrainian troops several times and Russian side has not made scandal. Soldier claimed at the same time that they were told that there will be two-sided exercise and why they had to paint the vechicles numbers. Who is right?

http://polit.ru/news/2014/08/26/accidentally/

Two paratroopers' funerals in Pskov 25.08.2014.

http://irek-murtazin.livejournal.com/1261661.html

Those paratroopers are not among previously posted list of Pskov 76th division soldiers. Who are they and what happened to them?

http://67viktor.livejournal.com/57522.html

[OUTLAW 09]

And the Russians just keep on rolling along ---here is another set of reports that just keep flowing with no a single comment from the EU/Germany/US.

Was not the US recent comments---it is not an "invasion"---just an "incursion"---if one is in fact in the UA and currently fighting on the border with Russian troops/tanks---not so sure they would call it an "incursion".

So in the current US political leadership when do they shift from the word "incursion" and finally use the real word "invasion"--at what amount of T72s/BTR80s/BM21/27s, artillery, and captured Russian troops does it start to become an "invasion"?

I keep asking here just where is the US strategy in handling the new Russian UW doctrine New Generation Warfare and how does the US counter political warfare coming from Russia over the next couple of years?

BREAKING: #Ukraine Nat Sec Council spox: 2 Russian Mi-24 attacked Ukrainian border guards w unguided rockets: 4 KIA+3 WIA. Unclear location

Btln "#Kirvbas" informs they seized a T-72 but no one can't drive. Destroyed 7 #Russian army BMDs.So much of RUS army via @lennutrajektoor

Invadors that broke thru border y'day set up positions near #Novoazovsk, shell the city, hospital is currently on fire - #NSC presser |EMPR

SAW IT COMING Russia calls Journalists who saw &reported Russia armored convoy enter Ukraine as LIARS #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/4gGzEkTDzz

#Breaking Here they are! Russian army forces without insignia, ready to move into Ukraine. A hundred T-72 and BTR-80
http://youtu.be/RNCP8qvoYtU

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/64975.html … #Pskov, #Russia: End of the road for some #Russian paratroopers touring #Ukraine.'by accident' https://twitter.com/Ukroblogger/stat...272960/photo/1

Russia admits its soldiers have been caught in Ukraine http://gu.com/p/4x2n9/tw via @guardian

Russian T-72s spotted and geolocated in Torez http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...-in-torez.html … https://twitter.com/djp3tros/status/...399936/photo/1

Seems Russian artillery is also shelling Ukraine by "accident" @MFA_Russia. NSDC: Russia continues to shell Novoazovs'k.

[kaur]

Novaya article from Pskov. Journalist managed to find father of fallen soldier at the cemetery. He is serving in mayor rank in Pskov ...

http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799

This article says that troopers from 18th brigade from Checnya were also killed in Ukraine in the first half of August.

http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2014/08/26/6190369.shtml

[Firn]

It was all quite obvious weeks ago if not months. Sadly confirmation after confirmation comes hammering home the point that Putin's Russia is waging war against Ukraine. A while ago I only started use (Pro)Russian forces to describe those doing the fighting, kidnapping, murdering, torturing and dying against the Ukrainians. While one shouldn't discount the armed locals, brainwashed by the Kremlin's propaganda, under Russian command and control the 'purely' Russian share in that invasion seems to be ever increasing.

Of course the fiction of two seperate entities, the Russian state and the so-called seperatists in the Donbass, is also an useful approach for many NATO members. Putin really had to work hard to get those still quite mild Western sanctions...

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING On Aug 24 in #Sverdlovsk #Luhansk region #Russian army marines fr #Sevastopol passed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL-yofb3HzU …

pic.twitter.com/szyjVirbFT

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant

A rather excellent and thorough bit of reporting on the battle near Novoazovsky from Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...source=twitter …

Ukraine is being shelled from Russia's territory, @Reuters reporter says
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...source=twitter …

30 Russian tanks invade Ukraine while negotiations take place in Minsk. A complete waste of time? http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/08/26/7035864/ …

Russian troops that invaded at #Novoazovsk fortified positions near Markino/Shcherbakovo/Kholodne cont. bombardment http://goo.gl/AzE0VK

Russian Armored Convoy Geolocated In Ukraine Headed Toward Lugansk - Complete With T-72 Tanks via @MillerMENA http://liveuamap.com/e/2014/26-augus...ukraine-headed

In Ukraine, an armored column appears out of nowhere. A Reuters exclusive: http://reut.rs/1vLQpvo pic.twitter.com/1SxW7dFRE6

Reuters report confirming #Ukraine claims of #Russia opening 'second front' in Azov sea area http://reut.rs/1vLQpvo pic.twitter.com/7J796Cnqcr

[OUTLAW 09]

While everyone is looking at Minsk there was evidently a joint Russian US team negotiating in Finland supposedly a 24 step plan for the Ukraine---notice through no EU nor Ukrainian presence at all as if this is a Russia US thing instead of a Russia Europe thing.

If one looks at the final 24 steps roughly 95% of what Russia originally wanted in their statements on both the Crimea and eastern/southern Ukraine was in fact achieved and presented as part of the plan.

By the way one still sees no attempt of the UK and the US to get back to their signed Budapest Memorandum.

This is the third trail balloon attempt to see what hits the wall and what then stays on the wall from the Russian side.

1. there was the money for land option
2. there then was the land for land---actually offered by a previous Atlantic article
3. now this plan

http://m.theatlantic.com/internation...crisis/379121/

Notice when reading the proposed 24 steps there is no discussion of just how the Russian invasion forces currently inside the Ukraine are to be handled--ie fully disarmed, fully under OSCE control counted on their outbound convoy's -----just what is mechanism---not even mentioned.