Summary: Tactical Situation in Donbas, Ukraine as at April 6, 2015
The rumors are spreading among the militants and their supporters that a new offensive is about to begin. We will try to figure out the current situation and make predictions about the possibility of this offensive and the most likely targets for attacks.
Based on the information we receive from insiders, the size of the Russian contingent in Luhansk has increased. Over the last few days, much larger numbers of weaponry have arrived in Luhansk via Krasnodon from Izvaryne border checkpoint not controlled by the Ukrainian forces. Preliminary reports state that the convoys have continued on to Alchevsk. Both new and damaged vehicles were seen in the convoys.
Obviously, the buildup of forces and the deliveries of new weapons are done for a future offensive. Considering that Shchastya is protected by the Siverskyi Donets river from the south, we could expect a future attempt to attack Stanytsia Luhanska to allow for a concealed deployment of additional forces from Russia along the northern bank of Siverskyi Donets. Sabotage attempts, similar to the one that occurred in Shchastya on April 5, could be used as distractions.
The buildup of forces continues in the area of Pervomaisk and Stakhanov. In particular, we know about the arrival of two tank companies to Bryanka and of a group of approximately the same size to Stakhanov. This increases the chances of an advance by the militants towards Artemivsk from the east and on the area of Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – Rubizhne. The latter is needed in order to obtain control over Siverskyi Donets crossings and to protect the flanks of the first attack. That first attack, if made in coordination with DNR and continued past the border of Luhansk Oblast, is likely to result in the successful capture of Artemivsk. The attack will probably be directed both north and south of Popasna, without a direct strike against the town, since the likelihood of getting bogged down in street fighting is too high.
The above is also evidenced by insider reports from Horlivka about the accumulation of weapons and troop staging in the settlement of Holmovskyi, and the continuing harassing fire against the ATO forces near Mayorsk. Therefore, the next attack is expected in the direction of Horlivka – Artemivsk.
In the west, the possibility of an attack to encircle Avdiivka from the north and the south remains real. We covered it in our previous reports.
Mariupol remains the most critical direction. The frontal attack against the city is not feasible, though the willingness of the Russian hybrid army to sacrifice a large force to achieve this goal should not be discounted. An encircling attack through Dokuchaevsk towards Berdyansk seems like a more rational approach. This suggestion is supported by the reports of the arrival to Berdyansk of a large group of militants, whose goal will be to destabilize the situation in the town. If these reports are confirmed, there is a very high probability of a strike originating in Dokuchaevsk, where new reinforcements arrived on Saturday, against Volnovakha and continuing towards the western outskirts of Mariupol. Therefore, the social climate in the cities and towns near the front lines should be addressed.
In the area of foreign policy, Russia continues its destabilizing efforts around the world. An increasing number of analysts are placing on Russia the responsibility for inciting the Houthi uprising in Yemen. Considering the poverty and hunger in this nation, it would be a trivial task for Russia. All it takes is a supply of money and weapons.
The military conflict in Ukraine should be viewed in a wider context, outside the closed system of a war between a former empire and its neighbor trying to escape the circle of influence. Remember that a butterfly flapping its wings on one side of the world can cause a hurricane on its other side…
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Bookmarks