Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Finnish photo imagery of the third Russian aircraft that either got "lost or on vacation" inside Finland?

Notice the comments below the photo which indicates it to be a FSB aircraft.

https://twitter.com/a7_FIN_SWE/statu...190528/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, I'm becoming little bit disappointed with bellingcat. How on earth is центр специального назначения Russian Navy SEAL? This unit is more like FBI HRT.

You posted also this bellingcat post. This was posted in Russian already in April and we managed to agree that this bearded cossack is not GRU Vostok guy already then. Bellingcat has missed that info also. In the end of August.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-e...k-wolf-sotnia/

If you'd like to post this info to bellingcat, you can make them look better

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...hechen&page=62

kaur---will pass it on to bellingcat.

Here is more on the killed Russian SF team together with their dogs.

One of #Russian army SOF unit commanders killed in #Ukraine by UA #SOF unit on August 26 along 6 other members.
pic.twitter.com/Nufqz8yYxY

[OUTLAW 09]

A Russian soldier who chooses to fight in #Ukraine on his summer break is still a Russian soldier.
Quoted by US UNSC Ambassador.

See this is the core problem with US lack of policy ie no strategy.

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian GRU/SF sabotage teams are now fanning out inside the Ukraine.

In #Kharkiv car detained, found inside more than 40 different grenades, 3 MANPADS, AK and 1,000 rounds of ammunition.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to 'Madhu' on SWJ Blog 'Russia’s ‘Hybrid War’ ' I will re-post my reply to her here.

A number of times references have been made in the media and on Small Wars Council about Russian dependence of Ukrainian industrial production of key weapons systems and part, in particular aero engines.

Yesterday the BBC reported that a:

A Ukrainian firm has moved the contents of its engineering factory from the war-hit city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine to central Russia....There was no indication of how the contents of the Luhansk machine-building plant had been moved

Maybe the long convoy of partly empty 'white' trucks had another purpose, so back to the BBC report:

The revelations emerged after Ukraine claimed a Russian aid convoy had been used to move equipment from a factory that made parts for helicopter engines

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28951437

I wonder if the current incursions, no invasion, amidst its aims includes the relevant factories and an opportunity to rescue them for Russia?

[OUTLAW 09]

Really worth reading---interesting points highlighted.

Exclusive - Over 100 Russian soldiers killed in single Ukraine battle - Russian rights activists


By Thomas Grove

MOSCOW Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:59pm BST

(Reuters) - More than 100 Russian soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine in a single battle this month while helping pro-Russian separatists fight Ukrainian troops, two members of the Russian presidential human rights council said on Thursday, citing accounts from eyewitnesses and relatives of the dead.

Ella Polyakova and Sergei Krivenko, both members of the council - an advisory body with no legal powers and an uneasy relationship with the Kremlin - said around 300 people were wounded in the same incident on Aug. 13 near the town of Snizhnye, when a column of trucks they were driving, full of ammunition, was hit by a sustained volley of Grad missiles.

"A column of Russian soldiers was attacked by Grad rockets and more than 100 people died. It all happened in the city of Snizhnye in Donetsk province," Krivenko told Reuters.

Polyakova said she had been given the same figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed.

They said they had spoken to around 10 relatives of the dead and fellow soldiers who witnessed the attack, some of whom had accompanied the bodies back to Russia. Their sources said there was no documentation proving the soldiers had been in Ukraine, and the death certificates were filled out to suggest they had died elsewhere.

"When I talk to the guys who accompanied these coffins of these contract soldiers, they tell me that the order was given orally, there were no forms of documents," said Polyakova.

If confirmed, the deaths would support assertions by Kiev and its Western allies that Russia is fuelling the conflict in eastern Ukraine by supplying the separatists with both weapons and soldiers.

They pose awkward questions for the Kremlin, which has consistently denied involvement in the conflict. A defence ministry official repeated that denial in strong terms on Thursday.

No one answered the phone when Reuters called a ministry spokesman to ask about the Snizhnye incident.

"The soldiers serving on contract are given an order, and the columns go across Russia and they stop at a camp, as though part of a training exercise, on the border with Ukraine," said Polyakova.

"They take off all the (identification) numbers or blotch them out, and then cross the border," she said.

Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said on Thursday that active Russian soldiers were fighting with the rebels against Ukrainian troops but were doing so while on vacation.

Polyakova said not one of the soldiers she or her colleagues had spoken to had filled out a form to go on vacation, standard procedure for contract soldiers.

Krivenko said that around the middle of August they had received complaints from parents of the soldiers that they could not contact their sons.

The pair said they had asked Russia's Investigative Committee to open a probe into the case.

"We've made requests to official bodies, but as of yet we've received no answer," Polyakova said.


This referencing large number of wounded Russian military personnel.

St. Petersburg local specialized hospital reports 15 planes w wounded #Russian army soldiers have arrive in a week pic.twitter.com/dfOqeFYAfk

[OUTLAW 09]

Thanks to 'Madhu' on SWJ Blog 'Russia’s ‘Hybrid War’ ' I will re-post my reply to her here.

A number of times references have been made in the media and on Small Wars Council about Russian dependence of Ukrainian industrial production of key weapons systems and part, in particular aero engines.

Yesterday the BBC reported that a:
Maybe the long convoy of partly empty 'white' trucks had another purpose, so back to the BBC report:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28951437

I wonder if the current incursions, no invasion, amidst its aims includes the relevant factories and an opportunity to rescue them for Russia?

Virtually all Russian helicopter engines come from the Ukraine.

When the sanctions came into effect Russian sources were quoted on RIA and Interfax stating it would take Russian 5-7 years to rebuild their industries that were located in the Ukraine.

[Dayuhan]

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

Again I think you overlook a basic reality: unilateral sanctions will not be effective, multilateral sanctions will not be quick. Action can either be fast and decisive or it can be multiilateral: it will never be both. Everybody sees what's going on, but they have to thrash out what they are willing to do in return. That won't be done overnight, because all of the parties doing the thrashing out have domestic impacts to consider. The US can't take effective economic action on its own, neither can it dictate what actions will be taken by others

That's not ideal, but it's what exists.

[OUTLAW 09]

Again I think you overlook a basic reality: unilateral sanctions will not be effective, multilateral sanctions will not be quick. Action can either be fast and decisive or it can be multiilateral: it will never be both. Everybody sees what's going on, but they have to thrash out what they are willing to do in return. That won't be done overnight, because all of the parties doing the thrashing out have domestic impacts to consider. The US can't take effective economic action on its own, neither can it dictate what actions will be taken by others

That's not ideal, but it's what exists.

US can actually issue sanctions against Putin's wealth estimated in the billions, can issue sanctions against Gasprom---meaning no access to US capital markets, can cut Gasproms access to money movements via NYC, and can limit 90 day lines of credit without asking Europe.

US can release oil out of the national reserves and rock the current sour oil markets which are at 95 USD down under the 90 range ---Russia recently stated they need 104 per barrel.

[OUTLAW 09]

Two More Russian POWs in Ukraine

18:55 (GMT)

Two more Russian POWs have been captured outside Ilovaisk in Ukraine, Espreso TV reports.

A video showing one of the soldiers has been broadcast.

The soldier has a swollen face with some scratches and may have been mistreated. He speaks in a monotonous voices and says some of the types of rehearsed-sounding statements that we have heard in other POW videos of interrogations.

Because he is in captivity, his confession was coerced and cannot be accepted as factual.

The Interpreter has translated the statement:

Soldier: We were brought to Rostov and they told us there would be training. The convoy started up and we then found ourselves by morning in Ukraine.

Interrogator: When did you realize it wasn't a training?

Soldier: When we landed under fire.

Interrogator: Didn't you know when they gave you not a training, but a combat kit?

Soldier: They handed them out on the border.

[OUTLAW 09]

Impressed with the US UNSC Ambassador's cynicism in her responses to Russian MFA and Russian UNSC Ambassador statements--and she is quick.

Russia basically "threatened" the US in their recent statement telling the US to "butt" out of the Ukraine.


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russia says US sldn't interfere in internal affairs of Ukraine. Interesting. Is this what noninterference looks like?

pic.twitter.com/rs8dCD0u0j


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russian Amb. omits mention of Russian combat units & rocket fire from #Russia. Might have gotten away with this before invention of cameras.


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russian Amb: "Everyone knows Russian volunteers are fighting in Ukraine"
1st such admission? Like Crimea: take territory 1st, admit it later

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian social media open source intelligence that has got to have the FSB spinning in circles--especially since it concerns the Russian Spetnaz.

If the documents are true then another nail in the coffin of "it ain't us".

http://ukrainewarlog.blogspot.de/201...-document.html

[OUTLAW 09]

So another nail in the Putin coffin that he does not have any influence over the mercenaries in eastern Ukraine.

Maybe he is trying to get back his 12 POWs now and is realizing the sanctions are coming hard and heavy.

OR maybe the initial scattered peace demos and the Mothers of Russian Soldiers Committee is starting to gain traction inside Russia and Russians are awakening to the fact that they are at war with the Ukraine long considered to be a "brother country"..

In two days---the Russian stock market has wiped out billions from Russian companies wealth---a two day drop of over 10% in some companies and it will continue tomorrow as well.

Sky News Newsdesk ✔ @SkyNewsBreak
Reuters: Russian president Vladimir Putin orders pro-Russia rebels to provide humanitarian corridor for encircled #Ukraine troops to exit

[OUTLAW 09]

So here comes the long awaited "peacekeeping mission" so what is the Wests' response to the annexation of eastern/southern Ukraine?

Putin issues notice of "Peacekeeping" Occupation: Russia "will provide humanitarian assistance to people of Donbass"

http://kremlin.ru/news/46506

Further comments on his statement:

He doesn't actually use the word in the text but that's how the Kremlin headlines the appeal: "...to the militiamen of Novorossia"

"New Russia"---man Putin never comes off of his own words that we in the west never seem to want to read nor listen to---it was there in his Duma speech for the west to see.

Game over---Western leadership has failed and now Russia will build out the land corridor to the Crimea which is where they were headed this afternoon---to Odessa and then onto Moldavia.

This western leadership failure has now allowed for Russia to actually field test the new Putin Doctrine--Poland and the Baltics have now a problem---they have seen little to no support within NATO and especially Germany in expanding NATO in their countries and have watched as Putin made his moves with little to no resistance from either NATO, the US or the EU.

By the way this Crimea land corridor move was an option discussed in this thread back during the Crimea events.

Full text of his message in English:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed Novorossiya militia

August 29, 2014, 01:10





Full text of address

It is clear the militia has achieved a major success in intercepting Kiev’s military operation, which represents a grave danger to the population of Donbass and which has already led to the loss of many lives among peaceful residents.

As a result of the militia’s actions, a large number of Ukrainian service members who did not participate in the military operation of their own volition but while following orders have been surrounded.

I call on the militia groups to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian service members who have been surrounded, so as to avoid any needless loss of life, giving them the opportunity to leave the combat area unimpeded and reunite with their families, to return them to their mothers, wives and children, and to quickly provide medical assistance to those who were injured in the course of the military operation.

For its part, the Russian side is ready and willing to provide humanitarian aid to the people of Donbass, who have been affected by this humanitarian catastrophe.

I once again call on the Ukrainian authorities to immediately stop military actions, cease fire, sit down at the negotiating table with Donbass representatives and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively via peaceful means.

[Dayuhan]

US can actually issue sanctions against Putin's wealth estimated in the billions, can issue sanctions against Gasprom---meaning no access to US capital markets, can cut Gasproms access to money movements via NYC, and can limit 90 day lines of credit without asking Europe.

Global capital markets are called "global" for a reason. Lines of credit are available in plenty of places, and Gazprom doesn't do all that much business with the US. US-only sanctions will be a minor issue at most, and are not going to change anyone's behavior. The US simply doesn't dominate the global financial landscape in the way it once did. Overall that's a good thing for the global economy, but it does reduce US leverage, particularly over Russia, where economic linkages are not that strong.

I think you're also underestimating the extent to which the US needs the Europeans in this as equal partners. If the US looks inclined to go it alone, many in Europe will be inclined to fold up the tents and let the US do it. Forcing Europe to lead in regional affairs is very much a legitimate goal for the US, just as forcing Japan to step up in Asia is a major goal there. If the US jumps out in front, will the other partners do their share? Not bloody likely.

The US cannot police the world alone, and allies need to accept that, step up, and do their share, even if that means the US has to simply refuse to go unilateral. Forcing regional allies to take an equal part in managing affairs in their areas is a goal as important as anything specifically related to the Ukraine.

US can release oil out of the national reserves and rock the current sour oil markets which are at 95 USD down under the 90 range ---Russia recently stated they need 104 per barrel.

That's not going to work for long enough to make a difference. Everyone in the oil market knows that the SPR is finite and needs to be replenished, and that when replenishment starts, the US will have to buy more than it consumes: demand will increase. That means a scramble to stock up in anticipation, and it means producers with financial reserves will cut back in order to sell their oil at the higher prices that will commence when the US has to replenish the reserves. The more the US releases, the faster the scramble will get, because the more the US releases, the sooner and more aggressively they will have to replenish.

Even in the very unlikely event that the US on its own could depress oil prices far enough long enough to seriously hurt Russia, have you considered the collateral damage in other countries that depend on oil revenue? Think Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc...

Trying to manipulate oil prices as a weapon is a lot more complicated in reality than it is in the minds (using the term loosely) of the blogosphere. That's why you don't see credible analysts proposing it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Global capital markets are called "global" for a reason. Lines of credit are available in plenty of places, and Gazprom doesn't do all that much business with the US. US-only sanctions will be a minor issue at most, and are not going to change anyone's behavior. The US simply doesn't dominate the global financial landscape in the way it once did. Overall that's a good thing for the global economy, but it does reduce US leverage, particularly over Russia, where economic linkages are not that strong.

I think you're also underestimating the extent to which the US needs the Europeans in this as equal partners. If the US looks inclined to go it alone, many in Europe will be inclined to fold up the tents and let the US do it. Forcing Europe to lead in regional affairs is very much a legitimate goal for the US, just as forcing Japan to step up in Asia is a major goal there. If the US jumps out in front, will the other partners do their share? Not bloody likely.

The US cannot police the world alone, and allies need to accept that, step up, and do their share, even if that means the US has to simply refuse to go unilateral. Forcing regional allies to take an equal part in managing affairs in their areas is a goal as important as anything specifically related to the Ukraine.



That's not going to work for long enough to make a difference. Everyone in the oil market knows that the SPR is finite and needs to be replenished, and that when replenishment starts, the US will have to buy more than it consumes: demand will increase. That means a scramble to stock up in anticipation, and it means producers with financial reserves will cut back in order to sell their oil at the higher prices that will commence when the US has to replenish the reserves. The more the US releases, the faster the scramble will get, because the more the US releases, the sooner and more aggressively they will have to replenish.

Even in the very unlikely event that the US on its own could depress oil prices far enough long enough to seriously hurt Russia, have you considered the collateral damage in other countries that depend on oil revenue? Think Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc...

Trying to manipulate oil prices as a weapon is a lot more complicated in reality than it is in the minds (using the term loosely) of the blogosphere. That's why you don't see credible analysts proposing it.

Dayuhan---that pointing this out to you as you sometimes while looking at the picture see the small things not what is staring you in the face. By the way the comments I had on oil in fact came from one of the best oil commenters in the business not from the blog world.

If all of what you say is correct--assuming it is correct then explain why VTB and Rosneft are asking the Russian Central Bank for support because they have a total of 34B due the end of this year and beginning next year in debt services and cannot get financial support from US and nearly now impossible in the Far East capital markets.

Think about it---all banks--global in nature have to clear their USD accounts through NYC and for that they must get a US license to do business---even if just clearing USDs.To clear even USDs for a Russian sanctioned person or companies risks that bank losing it's US license and if lost they cannot clear USDs regardless where those dollars reside and if they cannot clear that means a business disaster for them.

That my friend is the current globalness of banking.

Currently all Russian companies and banks that have been hit with sanctions are standing in line and have formally asked the Russian CB for support---notice no response from the CB---alone VTB and Rosneft have asked for 45B USD and the CB has only 450B in foreign currency available on top of the demands for the Yukos court decision that they must pay in order to remain credible banking wise..

Secondly oil---have you honestly checked how the current prices for sour crude are dropping and fast---Russia defines their needs last week to be 104 per barrel actually up from their previous statement of 95.

Sour crude is expected to drop to the support range of 90 and if it breaks through that then the bottom cannot be seen. Right now in the face of massive intl political events which should be driving the prices up they are in fact sinking on their own---ever wonder why?

[OUTLAW 09]

One needs to read this in order to understand what it meant by the tern contracted service member or what the Russians in their new UW military strategy that is currently being used in the Ukraine call private defense contractors.


Members of Russia's presidential human rights council detail how Russian soldiers are contracted to serve in #Ukraine

http://tmsnrt.rs/1vqMyGJ



"No #Russian army troops are in #Chechnya" Russian Federation Minister of Defence Grachev 26 November 1994.

#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/TebZXmOiJg

The Russians have been doing this since 1994 and the West thinks this is what---new from them?

[OUTLAW 09]

Go back and reread former Putin statements that his has made over the last four months on the linked topic below---he never comes off of his messaging--it is interesting that a number of commenters here seem to take his words and do not place them against his actions and that since 2008.

Simply do a Google of the Russian term "New Russia" and then historically look at what he is both saying and doing and come back and tell me he is "honest and trustworthy to do business with"?

This move is just another nail in NATO/EU/US foreign policy since he has taken over in 2001 and especially since Georgia and Moldavia.

KGB senior field officers seldom change their stripes especially ones from Dresden.

http://www.vox.com/2014/8/28/6080589...ls-novorossiya

[davidbfpo]

Outlaw09,

The indecision we have seen in Western Europe / NATO / EU over first the Crimea and now the Ukraine reminds me of the reluctance to face facts when the civil war started in Bosnia-Herzegovina. There was a lot of "look away", notably by Germany; then the sad antics of UNPROFOR which fed those about to die and did not provide protection.

I know the USA has claimed to have been decisive in advocating coercion of the Serbs to stop the civil war and related genocide. Others argue that the siege of Sarejevo was broken by the trilateral action taken on Mt. Igman by the British, Dutch & French - placing artillery overlooking Serbian positions and issuing an ultimatum to stop firing.

Europe, especially the UK, took an unbelievable stance during the civil war. Perhaps today it will be the Poles who are brave enough to say enough?

That there is a WAR in Europe, even far to the east, is so contrary to the idea and imagery of a peaceful Europe - seen very visibly in the EU - it cannot accept what Russia is doing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09,

The indecision we have seen in Western Europe / NATO / EU over first the Crimea and now the Ukraine reminds me of the reluctance to face facts when the civil war started in Bosnia-Herzegovina. There was a lot of "look away", notably by Germany; then the sad antics of UNPROFOR which fed those about to die and did not provide protection.

I know the USA has claimed to have been decisive in advocating coercion of the Serbs to stop the civil war and related genocide. Others argue that the siege of Sarejevo was broken by the trilateral action taken on Mt. Igman by the British, Dutch & French - placing artillery overlooking Serbian positions and issuing an ultimatum to stop firing.

Europe, especially the UK, took an unbelievable stance during the civil war. Perhaps today it will be the Poles who are brave enough to say enough?

That there is a WAR in Europe, even far to the east, is so contrary to the idea and imagery of a peaceful Europe - seen very visibly in the EU - it cannot accept what Russia is doing.

David--you are totally correct.

What worries me as an American watching this at a distance from DC but actually close to the Ukraine and having a close Ukrainian SF friend now in the heavy fighting---is to listen to the Obama press conference from yesterday.

How can it be that the US civilian leadership of a superpower has "no stated strategy for the Iraq and or Syria and or both of them"?

How can it be that during a 20 minute press conference where there is a war going on in Central Europe---the first war in Europe as a whole since 1945 -Obama has about five minutes of time to say anything about it.

How an it be that the Obama has truly no strategy for the Ukraine that anyone can make out?

How can it be that the US/Obama and DoD does not fully understand the new Russian military doctrine nor understands exactly what UW is in support of political warfare.

How can it be that Obama and DoD do not fully understand what the ethno nationalist imperialism being practiced by Putin is?

How can it be that US media asks tons of questions about IS which the JCoS stated is not a direct threat at the moment to the US but is for it's neighbors BUT virtually nothing about events in the Ukraine?

How can it be that the Obama advisory teams did not anticipate exactly what Putin is doing now in the Ukraine.

Putin openly stated his intent during the Duma speech ESPECIALLY check the statements he has made today at the School.

Sometimes residing overseas sets a different perspective--maybe the White House should move to say Berlin for a couple of years to expand their world views.

Reference the Europeans--this came over the blogs today and it does make one really wonder if both Europe and the US are in an alternate state of reality when it comes to Russia?

Instead of the sectoral sanctions on energy, EU considering restrictions on vodka, caviar, diamonds. Seriously?

Europe and the US does have massive pressure points;
1. cut all 90 day lines of credit to any Russian company, bank or Gazprom
2. sanctions Putin's wealth as a war criminal
3. cut all banking ties to Russian individuals, companies and Gazprom from Europe and the US

Have actually been waiting for the Ukrainians to shut off the gas flows to deny Russian cash flow and to finally pressure the EU into waking up and smelling the coffee.