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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #21
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP---out of all the above and it would take a book to respond---here is your ten word key statement and yet you failed to even answer it yourself.
    Oh - the irony.

    I would argue currently it is a striving near peer as I believe as you do not that while Russia is a military power and a political power---the political power is not from their military strength but rather through their nuclear weapons.
    Nuclear weapons are a military asset; ergo, it's a component of military power.

    Russia has no economic power to enforce/project their military and nuclear political power.
    You need to clarify. Are you saying that Russia does not have economic power to project or that it does not have the economic capacity to support military power projection?

    Currently they can only threaten their previous SU empire border countries and that is about it and yet when those countries were offered an alternative their ran in the direction of the EU/NATO not in the direction of Russia--wonder why?
    How is the 'why' relevant to Russia's capabilities?

    Some argue that the US is in demise--but can it still project political, military and economic power anywhere in the world---yes it can.
    Relative decline. That's an important distinction.

    I would argue that while chasing UBL and jihadi's around the world they have via their counter threat finance group discovered in fact a fourth power---the power to monitor the flows of USDs and if needed apply legal power against those flows just as they are now applying it against Russian state owned businesses and banks. AP that is the ultimate power and they have learned very well how to use it--ask the Iranians, ask the European banks and the fines they are paying
    In other words - sanctions. That's not new. And the historical record of the effectiveness of sanctions is mixed.

    Russia is simply a developing country with two raw resources that is being used to finance a corrupt government, a corrupt ruling elite, and the oligarchs that have failed in providing an increased standard of living for the entire Russia population equal to the earnings coming from those resources since 1994.
    If that's the case, what's with the hysteria about the threat Russia poses to the United States? Russia cannot simultaneously be a third-rate country and an existential threat to U.S. interests. Either Russia is a threat or it is not - if it is a threat, it's on the basis of its capabilities. If it's not a threat, why not just ignore it?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  2. #22
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    And so here we come full cycle. It's clear that Russia has the motive, means, and opportunity to act as a spoiler. But why now?
    The simple answer to "why now" is that Russia isn't choosing their own time. Certainly Russia is acting as a spoiler in both Syria and the Ukraine, but in both cases the Russian involvement is reactive, not proactive. The Russians didn't initiate the Syrian crisis: the 2011 attempt to expand the Arab Spring into Syria was not their doing. They reacted when one of their very few external allies was threatened. The Russians didn't initiate the Maidan revolt either: they reacted to the perceived threat of having a border state that they've long considered part of their natural sphere of influence move firmly into the Western orbit.

    Conspiracy theories aside, these situations grew out of local conditions that were not created (or in many ways fully anticipated) by the US, by "the West" collectively, or by Russia. The external players are in reactive roles, trying to turn events to their advantage. "Why now" was not determined by a decision from any outside player, the outside players simply responded to local events.

    It may be true that Russian confidence and relative capacity is growing, but Russian influence is not. If the Ukraine emerges from this with a firmly pro-western regime (with or without Crimea and Donetsk), Putin's only ally on his western border will be the consummate loose cannon that is Lukashenko. Sooner or later he will fall (they all do) and who knows what happens then? Assad may well remain in power, but Syria will be a broken state and as much liability as asset for Putin for years to come. Chinese influence is growing in the 'Stans. Worldwide, nations that find themselves out of favor in the West are increasingly looking to China, rather than Russia, for support and leadership. It's difficult to argue that Russia is in any way ascendant in the global influence derby. Who do they influence?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  3. #23
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    There has been a rather good series of articles on the Ukraine/Russian running from reporters of the csm.com.

    This one is a good reflection of those having lived under the Russian mercenaries and now feel that Russia lied to them ie meaning the propaganda was believed but then the reality of the armed separatists was totally different.

    This physiological shift is important in actually countering Russia---when the ethnic Russian target population finally realizes that they are part of their own country and that country pays attention finally to them and that they are not some figment of a dream then Russia is no longer a threat to the Baltics and the Ukraine.

    This is the true shift that has to happen--in fact the Russian information war has slid into disarray since the crash as the world just as the eastern Ukraine "saw" the truth, woke up, and questioned.

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europ...anipulating-us
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-01-2014 at 06:18 AM.

  4. #24
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post

    It may be true that Russian confidence and relative capacity is growing, but Russian influence is not. If the Ukraine emerges from this with a firmly pro-western regime (with or without Crimea and Donetsk), Putin's only ally on his western border will be the consummate loose cannon that is Lukashenko. Sooner or later he will fall (they all do) and who knows what happens then? Assad may well remain in power, but Syria will be a broken state and as much liability as asset for Putin for years to come. Chinese influence is growing in the 'Stans. Worldwide, nations that find themselves out of favor in the West are increasingly looking to China, rather than Russia, for support and leadership. It's difficult to argue that Russia is in any way ascendant in the global influence derby. Who do they influence?
    I share that way. Overall the discussion seems to drift towards the US-Russian relationship.

    @outlaw: A good read. While one should remain sceptical it is difficult to see much military local support in this Russian project. Still there was and is some, even if it is difficult to quantify.

    So when the rebellion came to Slaviansk, it was welcomed by much of the Russian-speaking population – as it was across eastern Ukraine. But the rebels, whose numbers in the city were estimated between 5,000 and 7,000, had a distinctly non-local, Russian flavor.
    Those numbers are far more then anything I have seen before.
    Last edited by Firn; 08-01-2014 at 05:24 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Not all Ukrainian oligarchs are just sitting this out or funding their own private fighting groups---this oligarch sold his RR and joined the Ukrainian Army and has been in the forward lines from the beginning.

    He says the Russian invasion has changed radically his perspectives.

    Wonder if similar Americans of wealth would drop everything and join the US Army?

    Amazing what Putin has created inside the Ukraine.

    http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/v...d_4033086.html

  6. #26
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    Spin, spinning, spun---wonder if Putin includes the Russian historical drive as he stated for strong cordial relations between countries to include the Crimea and eastern Ukraine?

    Has Putin now expanded his views of who makes up Russia by expanding it to cover all Slavic populations as well as Russian populations?

    RIA from today:

    MOSCOW, August 1 (RIA Novosti) – On the eve of the First World War, Russia did everything possible to persuade Europe to resolve the conflict peacefully and to avoid bloodshed, which reflects the character of the state, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday.

    According to Putin, Russia has been advocating strong, cordial relations between countries for ages.

    “And this is how it was on the eve of the First World War, when Russia went to great lengths to persuade Europe to settle the conflict between Serbia and Austria-Hungary peacefully. But [Europe] turned a deaf ear to Russian pleas. And it had to confront the challenge and protect the Slavic population, shielding its citizens from external threats,” Putin stressed.

    The president added that Russia fulfilled its duty and succeeded in withstanding the onslaught.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-01-2014 at 08:10 PM.

  7. #27
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    German helpers in uniform is a reportage by the German ARD about German citiziens supporting the (Pro)Russian cause. There are supposed to be three Germans fighting on their side of whom the ARD was able to interview one, a certain Nikolaj with a partly Russian background.

    More interesting is the way the support campaign is organized and connected to the armed groups. Google translate should help.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  8. #28
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    From the Independent:

    The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

    More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.
    The incident with the Malaysian flight stalled the negotiations. Also - the Crimean events remind me in some way of the U.S. annexation of Texas. Just a thought.

    Anyway, seems like the Germans are the only ones offering a solution that restores functional political relationships and doesn't involve killing more people. Fancy that.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  9. #29
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    This is what the current military situation looks according to the Ukrainians.



    The design of the Wikipedia map has changed to the better, showing now extent of the urban areas. I tried before to come up with a rough guess of the populations in occupied and liberated areas but this gives a pretty good overview of it at a glance. It may be sometimes a bit misleading, for example Horlivka is of course less densly populated then Donesk, but overall a great way to present the situation.




    It also shows that dense urban areas are the cornerstones of the Pro(Russians) defence. The fighting seems to especially fierce in the are of the three cities Shaktarsk, Torez, Shizne along the H21 where Ukrainian forces threaten to cut the (Pro)Russian area in two. Much of the debris of MH17 is found not far north-east of them.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  10. #30
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    From the Independent:

    Anyway, seems like the Germans are the only ones offering a solution that restores functional political relationships and doesn't involve killing more people. Fancy that.
    It's owner has been discussed before. Maybe this means that there is some truth behind it, maybe not. Who knows.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  11. #31
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    It's owner has been discussed before. Maybe this means that there is some truth behind it, maybe not. Who knows.
    Sure. German government denies it of course - but that's part of secret negotiations. Exposing them before completion tends to sabotage them since they're dealing with sensitive subjects that otherwise could not be resolved in public. So which side is Lebedev on?

    EDIT: I'm not familiar with any significant problems in The Independent's past reporting or credibility.
    Last edited by AmericanPride; 08-02-2014 at 04:34 PM.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  12. #32
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    An interesting article in light that the large number of videos hitting the web indicating large numbers of Russian tanks, SAM10s, APC, GRADS and artillery have been crossings since 29 Jul coupled with Russian soldiers blogging from inside the Ukraine.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-invasion.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    German helpers in uniform is a reportage by the German ARD about German citiziens supporting the (Pro)Russian cause. There are supposed to be three Germans fighting on their side of whom the ARD was able to interview one, a certain Nikolaj with a partly Russian background.
    The Russian / German connection is one of the sad and tragic byproducts of the Soviet invasion of Germany in the closing stages of WW2.

    One needs to read Antony Beevor's book The Fall of Berlin 1945 to be able to understand the scale of the Russian war crimes committed by the invading Soviet soldiers one of which was mass rape.

    This article 'They raped every German female from eight to 80' gives an idea of the scale of these crimes. As a result there were many thousands of Russian fathered offspring.

    Many of these children and in turn their own offspring have not had a easy life in Germany as this story attests - The Occupation and its Offspring: Lost Red Army Children Search for Fathers .

    This legacy - of Russian fathered children - continued - though on much a smaller scale - in the occupied East Germany up to the final withdrawal of Soviet troops after 49 years.

    There should be no surprise that there will be a sizeable number of 'Germans' who would feel more at home under their 'fathers' umbrella if welcomed even if they will be cynically used by the Russians as cannon fodder.

    If one observes the Afghan men in Kabul it is obvious that there is a Russian legacy in this respect too where an significant minority of men between the ages 25-35 have obvious Russian type features.
    Last edited by JMA; 08-02-2014 at 08:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    It's owner has been discussed before. Maybe this means that there is some truth behind it, maybe not. Who knows.
    What is there to discuss?

    Germany made a third major strategic blunder in the the last 100 years - the first two being starting two major wars and then losing them - by placing their national energy reliance on the supply of gas from Russia.

    To fix this massive error in judgement the Germans will do anything, sell anyone out, even make a deal with the devil (as it seems they are doing).

    It would be dangerous to trust or rely on Germany in relation to Russia right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    An interesting article in light that the large number of videos hitting the web indicating large numbers of Russian tanks, SAM10s, APC, GRADS and artillery have been crossings since 29 Jul coupled with Russian soldiers blogging from inside the Ukraine.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-invasion.html
    Outlaw, once again for the US and the EU to accept that what is happening in eastern Ukraine is a Russian invasion would require a response. No balls for that in those places.

  16. #36
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    JMA---fully agree--that is why I have said at the beginning of the Crimea event here in SWJ--the US should have called out the Russian INF violation as well as the failure to disarm under OSCE agreements.

    Only now are they calling it out--still though not on the OSCE violations.

    A solid read on the Russian INF issue. The article is interesting when one goes back and reads up on the new Russian nuclear doctrine since about 2012.


    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...r-11001?page=2

  17. #37
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    @JMA: I think those in question are mostly those with some German background whose ancestors, called by the Tzars, emigrated a long time ago to settle down in Russia. Germans made arguably the biggest contribuition to the Russian economy, culture and military in the last centuries of all other ethnic groups. The 'right to return' was very attractive to escape the economic ruin and political prosecution in their homelands, 3 millions used that possiblity from 1988 onwards.

    Certainly a huge demographic gain for Germany, especially since the intergration was relatively easy. At most three out of so many isn't much.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  18. #38
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Unraveling US-Russian relations from New York Times:

    Now, both sides are slipping back toward habits reminiscent of the Cold War. The joint atomic projects have declined substantially. Last week, Washington accused Moscow of violating a major arms treaty on missile technology. After the negotiation of the modest New Start treaty in 2010, progress toward another round of nuclear warhead reductions is dead in the water and unlikely to be revived during President Obama’s term in office.
    Even though I've asked JMA and Outlaw repeatedly to what extent does the U.S. pursue the Ukraine issue at the expense of a functional relationship with Russia, I've yet to receive an answer. Ukraine is one part of a larger picture - what do we want that larger picture to look like?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  19. #39
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    AP---here is the hole in your Russia/US thoughts that an aircraft carrier can maneuver through.

    Right now Russia operates on a two track process; 1) one track is the maintaining of legally binding business agreements which they hold to even if they go over the cliff and 2) they "use" to hold to signed international treaties/agreements and or memorandums signed since 1994.

    I have probably as none on this thread have--- worked closely with the Russian Peacekeeping Brigade Staff/Russia National Military Academy and one of their BNs during to two major command/staff exercises in 2012 and 2013 and wrote together with the Russians a joint Brigade operations concept together with the related joint reporting concepts. Hours and hours of massive negotiations in four days over sometimes the definitions of single words.

    By the way I was the first here in SWJ to state cut all joint military planning, exercises and joint education programs---immediately which was done by DoD.

    At the end of the planning sessions a joint PowerPoint briefing would be signed and that established for the Russians an "agreement" that they would hold to during any future meetings and if we changed something then they would wave the "signed agreement" and conduct what I would state was subtle pressure on us to come back to the "agreement".

    So you see they place "great faith" in agreements so why have they been since 2012 constantly violating them?

    Back to their holding to signed agreements since 1994---the current hardliners as well as Putin are adamant in overturning all signed agreements since 94 as they view those agreements to have been pushed on a "weak" Russia and not fitting for a superpower.

    If you actually go back and really seriously look at Putin's actions on each and every previously signed agreement he has either violated them , side stepped them, ignored them or demanded they be renegotiated.

    Since 2008---the INF, the Memorandum on the Ukraine, the OSCE disarmament agreements, invaded Georgia, and Moldavia taken the Crimea and entered into eastern Ukraine. So AP what your call that track record?---a friendly inclined nice to work with country or simply a rouge country which ignores all agreements and one who does not care what the world thinks?

    Now not knowing what world you come from but that defines a rouge country if you finally go back to the Wikipedia definition that I asked you to accept and if not then modify.

    So why if a rouge country is not accepting international agreements, annexes territory when the rest of Europe has since 1994 moved on and actually shells and crosses troops into the Ukraine which some would call an invasion in any language.

    Now explain to me how you would treat a rouge country as shown above other than through isolation until such time as the current leadership either wakes up and or continues on the path.

    What would you have as a functional relationship with a country that is basically a developing second world country which has two raw resources and nuclear weapons -- while claiming they can assist us in the international world problems such as Syria where they even blocked humanitarian assistance, Iran, and North Korea---what as been achieved with Russia assistance---exactly just what agreements have come out of Russian assistance?

    Did you read the INF article I posted and have you read the new Russian nuclear doctrine since 2012?---Now explain to me if the Russian leadership "sounds" normal in their view of the world?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-03-2014 at 05:50 PM.

  20. #40
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    AP--one of the core Russia/Putin arguments is that Russia has nothing to do with the separatists/irregulars and now called independence fighters AND they adamantly had nothing to do with the shot down.

    They have almost an alternative state of reality with this argument and they have not come off of it.

    Then this link---which again disproves this argument as have countless other evidence and yet Putin holds to it---so a rouge country or a sane, clear thinking states or a bumbling country?

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?cHa...3#.U95lQWDlrIX

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