Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-05-2014

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;160910]As usual, your argument proves too much. How is that behavior unique to Russia or uniquely objectionable when conducted by Russia? In June 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty because in the words of President Bush, he concluded that "the ABM Treaty hinders our government’s ability to develop ways to protect our people from future terrorist or rogue-state missile attacks." In other words, the U.S. "ditched" a treaty because it "no longer worked" for it. Now - to follow your line of argument, you must critique every country that abandons a treaty because it perceives the utility of the treaty is no longer sufficient, including the U.S.

You have done this on several occassions. In your attempt to condemn the destruction of a civilian airliner by a air defense missile, you have argued that air defense missiles should be classified as weapons of mass destruction - even though every country employs air defense missiles. In your attempt to discredit my arguments, you have argued that those in closest proximity to the conflict are the most credible - meaning that Russian posters like mirhond should have more credibility than American posters, including yourself. I strongly recommend that you become more circumspect in your arguments.

Ah AP--the individual here who projected the argument that negotiations was the way forward with little else behind the theory.

EXPLAIN this statement after Russia supported a "ceasefire".

Want to explain their thinking and now the shelling that is still continuing AFTER the timeframe for all shellings to cease.

Waiting to see your response---ample evidence again of what you seem to think does not occur in political reality--"an altered state of reality" .

Below is about as "altered of thinking as one can get these days".

But again it is Russia you sell here that needs to be what "understood"---come on AP "understood"?

BREAKING #Russian ambassador to #OSCE said #Mariupol will be liberated as it belongs to #Donetsk region. WHAT????

AP---here is a perfect example of Russian thinking---hey we have a new land locked country called New Russia but it needs a port outlet for all that coal and steel exports so lets' just imagine that Mariupol is just part and parcel of Donetsk---so again AP you support this thinking correct?

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-05-2014

See AP---here is another really great example of an "altered state of Russian reality" that even you must have to think through a little bit.

Let's see---Putin has for how long denied, denied and denied again and again---no troops in the Ukraine, but then some kind of Russian military=--no wait "vacationers" somehow got "lost" and ended up 80 kms inside the Ukraine and along the way some of them got killed and were then "secretly" buried and paid no death compensation to their wives and or parents, but wait did not the FSB beat up a Russian politician for trying to find out the truth behind their deaths-oh and again was not the Russian Mothers for the Miltary told their were not a "foreign agent NGO"-and then again and again in in front of TV cameras did not the Russian FM and Putin state "no Russian troops in the Ukraine".

You mention here that we "should attempt to understand the Russian complaints"---how about just trying to understand their "altered state".

Explain this one AP:

Now that the truth can not be hidden anymore,@RT_com sells #Russian_invaders (all RF #army background) as heroes! ... pic.twitter.com/xtSZ8TKWgt

Come on AP even you must admit this is really a Russian stretch of the "altered reality"---at first they were not even there, then lost, and then lost and vacationing and WHAT now "heros"?

All of that since 25 August---.

AP--another great example of the Russian "altered state of reality"---is it not usually an existing government that makes a war usually "legal" by some sort of political statements, acts, or declarations?---right AP?

Then explain just why this organization had to publish a long statement with multiple signatures in Isvestia today in Moscow.

Since when is a War Veterans group a policy deciding element of government that can declare war on another country---come on AP think about it.

#RUS Union of War Veterans wrote public addressing on war in #Ukraine what's considered as "legalization" of the war.

Hard to read if one does not speak Russian but it is in fact a formal "legalization" of the Russian war with the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...96779338821632

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-05-2014

Not sure just what ceasefire the Ukrainians signed today but it definitely was not with the Russian Army which is still after the time line shelling Ukrainian positions.

AP just another "normal" example of "negotiation results" when one thinks one is dealing in full faith with Russia.

Come on AP even you have to admit--Putin got a great deal---and his Army continues to fight.

Worrying reports from #Debaltsevo indicate a massive Russian tank force has either surrounded the 25th Ukr brigade OR is even attacking it.

This came in 15 minutes ago from the field.

Notice AP the field reporting states Russian tank force not a "separatist tank force".

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-05-2014

Another great example today indicating the massive "altered state of Russian reality".

Standard mantra---no Russian troops and equipment inside the Ukraine--even from Putin and his FM.

BREAKING #Russia is considering giving "participant of war activities" status for survived soldiers of #Pskov VDV div

Now suddenly the "on vacation and lost airborne brigade was what?----"participating in war activities"?

Now that is a stretched "reality" since many were buried in secrecy and their families not even told they had been killed in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...50991644557312

**AmericanPride** · 09-05-2014

Outlaw,

You are acting like nobody knows that Russian troops are operating in Ukraine. That much is obvious - and frankly, it that fact only makes the problem more difficult for the West to actually address. It does also make it more difficult to dislodge the insurgents; the problem to which none of you proposed solutions actually apply.

So - unlike your predictation - Kiev and Moscow negotiated a cease-fire with the intention to create more political space for a final settlement. Whether that happens now or later and what kind of points it will contain remains to be seen but at the end of the day, your dire warnings about the "irrational" Russians living in their "altered state of reality" have yet to come to fruition. Moscow has not annexed eastern Ukraine. The destruction of a civilian airliner did not elicit an escalated response by the West or produce any notable political consequences. And Kiev is interested in a negotiated settlement, not a fight to the death, with Russia. Can you highlight for me where your predictions have come to fruition?

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

Originally Posted by AmericanPride

Outlaw,

You are acting like nobody knows that Russian troops are operating in Ukraine. That much is obvious - and frankly, it that fact only makes the problem more difficult for the West to actually address. It does also make it more difficult to dislodge the insurgents; the problem to which none of you proposed solutions actually apply.

So - unlike your predictation - Kiev and Moscow negotiated a cease-fire with the intention to create more political space for a final settlement. Whether that happens now or later and what kind of points it will contain remains to be seen but at the end of the day, your dire warnings about the "irrational" Russians living in their "altered state of reality" have yet to come to fruition. Moscow has not annexed eastern Ukraine. The destruction of a civilian airliner did not elicit an escalated response by the West or produce any notable political consequences. And Kiev is interested in a negotiated settlement, not a fight to the death, with Russia. Can you highlight for me where your predictions have come to fruition?

Quiet frankly AP I keep getting amazed at how much you actually support Russia---first "we must negotiate", then we must "understand them", then hey they can do as they want to because we have done so in the past also---that is always a great theme, and what the next step we should invite them home for Thanksgiving?

Russia and it's current elite are nothing more nor less than a new form of neo imperialists cloaking themselves in the guise of ethno nationalists but fascist in nature as represented by the eight fascist fighting groups from Russia inside the Ukraine and which were allowed to cross the border by the FSB.

AP--why do not start a thread on Russian fascism as it is there by all known definitions that even you can follow.

Let's see NATO says we will defend Estonia under Article 5, Obama goes to Estonia and gives a major speech and then less than 24 hours late the FSB in typical NKVD fashion kidnap ON Estonia soil a KAPO CI officer and taken him back to Russia. Now that my friend is up in your face pure Russian fascismit at work.

This is the Russia you claim the West "should understand and negotiate with"?

Come on AP--expand you comments to now say the current fascist neo imperialism that is actually there to be seen by one and all---

Am happy though that you finally made it through to the other side in admitting "well maybe Russian troops are inside the Ukraine" and you finally admitted that I was correct in the simple fact Putin was crossing at all costs and by the way he is still not finished with the Ukraine.

Watch the next ten days for small forward movements of the Russian troops inside the Ukraine---he still wants his land corridor to the Crimea.

AND by the way AP--Putin's economy is not tanking? an will continue downward-----come on AP follow the economic reporting---and by the way watch the stock market and Rubel on Monday morning after the sanctions from yesterday and then mention your comment on what was predicted--did it not in fact occur.

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

AP--here is your problem as you have never been a part of the tip of the spear on implementing US foreign policy nor really understand UW and or political warfare.

It is how you view say Russia through the lens of your own personal biases.

In order for you to fully understand Russia you really need to think through the following which was taken from another thread.

SACEUR knows that we need to be able to counter political and unconventional warfare. The Latvians and Poles have described Russia's new generation warfare (Latvia) and Russian information warfare (Poland) the best in their reports this past spring

QUOTE: NATO members, especially the Baltic states that border Russia, must take into account such tactics as allies prepare for future threats, he said. That means steps should be taken to help build the capacity of other arms of government, such as interior ministries and police forces, to counter unconventional attacks, including propaganda campaigns, cyberassaults or homegrown separatist militias.

“What we see in Russia now, in this hybrid approach to war, is to use all the tools they have ... to stir up problems they can then begin to exploit through their military tool,” said Breedlove, NATO’s supreme allied commander.

By building up pre-crisis capabilities to deal with such tactics, nations will be better able to assign responsibility to an aggressor nation, which is key to triggering NATO involvement in a crisis, Breedlove said.

“When you cannot attribute (to an aggressor), this causes problems,” Breedlove said. “But the moment we attribute these actions to an aggressor nation, now this is Article 5. So we need to build the nations’ ability to fight through that first onslaught, attribute to an aggressor nation, and then NATO Article 5 kicks in.” END QUOTE

I hate to beat a dead horse but we should pay attention to our own George Kennan who described this in 1948:

•Political warfare is the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in time of peace. In broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures (as ERP--the Marshall Plan), and "white" propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of "friendly" foreign elements, "black" psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.
http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/hi...afounding3.htm

If you understand the above then you would not be writing much of what you write.

If you look simply at the issue Russia has since Putin took over in 2001 done the following;

1. implemented a new military doctrine called New Generation Warfare which is UW based in support of their version of political warfare-- released 2013
2. implemented a new nuclear strategy based on the presumption of first strike tactical abilities-revised and released 2012
3. completely rebuilt and modernized their armed forces under the 2020 Program--introducing many new systems that the West cannot even match
4. defined and exercised their UW strategy in first Georgia and then Moldavia starting in 2008
5. since 2008 have created and maintained three enclaves protected by Russian troops using actually elements of the Ukraine events as well as Crimea
6. have stationed far more than the per agreement "allowed" number of Russian military personnel in Kaliningrad since 1995

NOW AP during all of the above items what exactly was the Western view and or actions taken?---Absolutely nichts, nada, nothing. AND yet you say we must "understand" Russian complaints.

Then on top of the above Russia has;
1. violated the INF by testing and fielding a tactical nuclear cruise missile system all the while arguing that the US missile defense system was pointed at them which it was not--and you will notice the cruise missile was being developed long before the anti missile system discussion
2. Russia refused to disarm and destroy over 2000 armored vehicles many of which are now in the Ukraine under their signed OSCE agreements
3. Russia backed out of the European Conference Treaty
4. Russia is in full violation of the Budapest Agreements
5. Russia is in full violation of the Helsinki Accords
6. Russia is openly discussing possible violation and backing out from the INF

AND again AP what was the Western actions, reactions or statements to this? Nichts, nada, nothing if I recall correctly.

THEN came along Putin and forcibly changed the existing borders of a European country ie the Crimea (first time that has been done since 1945) via armed annexation and all they got for it was an economic sanctions regime---did it really change Putin's mind---nichts, nada, nothing that I can see at the moment.
Because it did not truly hurt him.

Russia has under their new nuclear first strike concept actually practiced the tactical field use of nuclear weapons strikes on Poland and the Baltics.

By the way I cannot even recall since 1980 when NATO even practiced a tactical nuclear strike in any of their Reforger exercises.

Russian Duma politicians openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the US during the Crimea crises.

There is mounting physical geo tagged evidence from Russian social media that in fact Russia had GRU/SF/FSB personnel inside the Ukraine since Feb 2014.

AND then Russia kidnaps yesterday a Estonian Federal CI officer and admits to it in their media.

By the way AP have you ever stopped and asked yourself why Russia/Putin and his FM have been so adamant about no Russian troops in the Ukraine and why the Russian Army wears no names and or is on "vacation"---simple---when NATO cannot clearly define the military personnel to be from a specific country ie Russia then "legally" Article 5 cannot be implemented---AND the Russians know this---WHY because under the NATO Russian Founding Act--Russia sits in all NATO meetings and PACE.

It is exactly this camouflage technique that contributes to my statement "altered state of reality".

Truly attempt to understand "altered reality" because it will be with us as long as Putin is in power unless a true younger generation of Russian leaders emerge out of his mess.

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

AP--see how the Russia you claim we must "understand" as they have a right for a "sphere of influence" is now carrying out in the Donbas occupied zones.

Russian military/FSB/GRU are now passing out Russian Passports within the Donbas areas occupied by them. AP---Does this sound vaguely familiar to you ---it should ie Georgia, Moldavia and the Crimea--now eastern Ukraine.

So again AP--here comes the annexation which if I recall correctly JMA here stated would be exactly happening if the West did not massively respond.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ion-of-donbas/

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

AP---continued/increased Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory under the cover of a ceasefire---which seemed to be for only the separatists and Ukrainian Army not the Russian Army.

http://burkonews.info/activity-russi...rea/#more-1368

Notice they are heading towards the Mariupol port city the gateway to Odessa and the land corridor I told you Putin still wants---especially since the Russian OSCE Ambassador declared Mariupol as part of the Donbas region as has Odessa been declared several weeks ago by Russian Duma politicians.

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

It appears that now even the Russian Orthodox Church is getting into the "war" thing inside the Ukraine.

Here is a poster that has been posted in a number of Moscow/St Petersburg locations where the Russian Church is advertising "paid vacation positions inside the Ukraine" for drivers and gunners of the advertised armored vehicles.

I have mentioned here a number of times that the Russian government is made up of four distinct groupings and to a degree some exhibit signs of being fasicist in nature.

1. the internal security services
2. the Russian mob and related east European criminal gangs
3. the oligarchs
4. the military services

And layered over these four groups is the Russian Church.

Putin is just a mediator among these five groupings.

Great example of this below.

https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/statu...263040/photo/1

**OUTLAW 09** · 09-06-2014

Appears that now even "The Economist" is writing that Putin is in an "altered state of reality" with his current thinking. And if one reads between the lines the Economist is basically saying the weak response initially by both the UE/US simply enabled him to move forward.

http://www.economist.com/news/leader...t-steel-itself

It seems as well that the Washington Post from today agrees that if the West had the vision that military force could settle the Ukrainian issues as did Putin believe in military force we would not be where the West is today declaring that sanctions worked thus the ceasefire.

That view is not seconded by the WP.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...d02_story.html

**AmericanPride** · 09-06-2014