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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #601
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    Appears that a SU25 parked at a Russia military airfield near Rostov has "New Russia" separatist markings.

    Anyone know when the mercenaries developed an air force?

    Groundattack SU-25 FROGFOOT with marking as belonging to "Novorossija".

    pic.twitter.com/SxGcYjJ8ad

    For a ceasefire near Mariupol it seems that the Ukrainians are killing Russian military and taking POWs.

    Battalion Azov killed 20 Russians Soldiers and Took 11 POWs

    pic.twitter.com/gDiOLPgsmu
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-10-2014 at 08:54 PM.

  2. #602
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    Seems that finally OSCE "sees" Russian AD missile systems going into the Ukraine.

    Breaking: "We are aware that #Russia has sent its newest air defence systems, including the SA-22, into E #Ukraine"

    http://osce.usmission.gov/mobile//au...a_ukraine.html

  3. #603
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    By the way AP from the same University that you derided the author who did the comparison of Putin to 1984
    There you go making stuff up again. Where did I deride the author?

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP---read thoroughly his views---they are far more accurate what anything you have written here.
    Really? Because had you actually bothered to read anything I have written and then taken the typical step to not mis-characterize my statements, you would have found that I'm largely in agreement with the statement that "Putin came to power as a pragmatic nationalist, skeptical of Western values and aims, but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

    It would also be nice if you separated your personal comments from the text of the articles you're quoting so you don't give the impression that you're plagiarizing.

    So - is Poroshenko a Russian stooge for seeking a negotiated settlement and for claiming that the bulk of Russian forces are leaving Ukraine?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    There you go making stuff up again. Where did I deride the author?



    Really? Because had you actually bothered to read anything I have written and then taken the typical step to not mis-characterize my statements, you would have found that I'm largely in agreement with the statement that "Putin came to power as a pragmatic nationalist, skeptical of Western values and aims, but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

    It would also be nice if you separated your personal comments from the text of the articles you're quoting so you don't give the impression that you're plagiarizing.

    So - is Poroshenko a Russian stooge for seeking a negotiated settlement and for claiming that the bulk of Russian forces are leaving Ukraine?

    So AP---plagiarizing a nice term--I do in fact link to the articles which up to know you seem to ignore---liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.

    See there is a subtle difference again between us--you accepted the whole premise of the "but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

    I would as do others here in Berlin that he had his agenda ie what he rolling with now long before he took power in 2001---if he was so sold on economic improvement for his population then he would not have taken the moves in Crimea and the Ukraine knowing full well he would be hit with heavy sanctions.

    BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs.

    There is a bit of cognitive dissonance in Putin's views of the west---on one side he wants their economical/financial benefits then on the other he dismisses them as being far too liberal.

    See AP if one looks deeper into the Russian economy and the robber barons ie oligarchs, himself, and the Russian mob--literally billions have been stolen and shipped to the safe havens of the "hated" west for safe keeping, he has raised the pension payments and created a pension fund which now that the sanctions have hit is being tapped to support the sanctioned banks and oil companies and Russia will have a hard time now balancing their budget ending Dec 2014 and no balancing for 2015. Pension announcements indicates a freezing at current levels which surprised many normal Russians this week.

    Heck he cannot even support now the Crimea which he so bombastically announced in the Duma speech--reality won out.

    Here is where it is getting interesting for Putin--several European economists who have long researched Russia are close to stating that the Russian economy is one large Ponzi scheme which in the past was oil/gas rich and no one "saw" any problems but now is on the verge of crashing as the costs it was to cover is now out of sight and the oil/gas cash flows are stagnating.

    They need a 113 per barrel of Ural crude to cover budget costs---Russian sour crude tanked yesterday at 97 and is continuing to sink with an estimated bottom of roughly 88-92 --that hurts badly. Originally in 2008 Russia stated they would do fine on 95 per barrel--notice now how much of the budget is determined now by a price of 113---therein lies the Ponzi scheme.

    Putin largely believed his moves in Crimea and eastern Ukraine would go as it did in Georgia and Moldavia---and was totally stunned by the western economic sanctions which while initially weak have gotten progressively stronger and are in fact hurting now especially on the capital loans side of the house.

    While you are right--Russian troops are pulling out it is due to a multi fold reason---there are reports coming out of Moscow---they simply cannot cover the expeditionary costs for long, the social media has awakened the Russian masses to what is going on inside Russian AND surprisingly Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".

    Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.

    When the word is "thousands" it does not reflect the key armor, artillery and SF units needed inside to keep the Ukrainian Army at bay. But if the Ukraine does in fact sign the EU Assoc agreement without the Russian inputs being accepted which the EU has already said they cannot do---watch then the drive to Odessa.
    By the way there are three rumored reasons coming out of Moscow for the pull back---one is they have no o more money for an expeditionary force , two the mothers of KIA/WIA soldiers are gaining internal support traction and back to the Russian "legality thing"---he has no Duma approval for sending Russian troops into the Ukraine. The western reaction has nothing to do with the pullback and or Ukrainian negotiations--simply technical in nature.

    NOTE: If this Ukrainian military briefing map is correct Putin controls a massively large portion of south eastern Ukraine already and he will not be giving it up anytime soon if one looks at Georgia and Moldavia.

    War in Ukraine looks like this today, acc to Sec Council. If true, huge gains for rebels along border N of Novoazovsk

    pic.twitter.com/yEm0cdnUrC

    Where Putin is again miscalculating is in his use of his "gas cards"---he thinks by cutting small amounts in four countries he can get the new sanctions delayed or stopped--what he does not understand and again because of his not understanding the west--- it will drive the EU into even harder sanctions and this time aimed at Gazprom especially on the cartel violations side.

    What many in the US do not understand in those agreements is an nice Russia cash earning tactic--you sign an agreement for X amount of gas per year but do not take it because the winter was mild---hey you still have to pay for the unused amounts---nice earnings package---but here is where Gazprom is in a bind---if it does not deliver the agreed to amount on monthly basis they can be hit will penalties and they are not small.

    But the amounts being small yesterday have increased into a virtual gas "war" now.

    RUS cuts gas supplies to PL by 45% now. Expect SK to report such gas cuts soon. RUS warning ag/ fresh EU sanctions
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 11:06 AM.

  5. #605
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    So AP---plagiarizing a nice term--I do in fact link to the articles which up to know you seem to ignore---liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.

    See there is a subtle difference again between us--you accepted the whole premise of the "but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

    I would as do others here in Berlin that he had his agenda ie what he rolling with now long before he took power in 2001---if he was so sold on economic improvement for his population then he would not have taken the moves in Crimea and the Ukraine knowing full well he would be hit with heavy sanctions.

    BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs.

    There is a bit of cognitive dissonance in Putin's views of the west---on one side he wants their economical/financial benefits then on the other he dismisses them as being far too liberal.

    See AP if one looks deeper into the Russian economy and the robber barons ie oligarchs, himself, and the Russian mob--literally billions have been stolen and shipped to the safe havens of the "hated" west for safe keeping, he has raised the pension payments and created a pension fund which now that the sanctions have hit is being tapped to support the sanctioned banks and oil companies and Russia will have a hard time now balancing their budget ending Dec 2014 and no balancing for 2015. Pension announcements indicates a freezing at current levels which surprised many normal Russians this week.

    Heck he cannot even support now the Crimea which he so bombastically announced in the Duma speech--reality won out.

    Here is where it is getting interesting for Putin--several European economists who have long researched Russia are close to stating that the Russian economy is one large Ponzi scheme which in the past was oil/gas rich and no one "saw" any problems but now is on the verge of crashing as the costs it was to cover is now out of sight and the oil/gas cash flows are stagnating.

    They need a 113 per barrel of Ural crude to cover budget costs---Russian sour crude tanked yesterday at 97 and is continuing to sink with an estimated bottom of roughly 88-92 --that hurts badly. Originally in 2008 Russia stated they would do fine on 95 per barrel--notice now how much of the budget is determined now by a price of 113---therein lies the Ponzi scheme.

    Putin largely believed his moves in Crimea and eastern Ukraine would go as it did in Georgia and Moldavia---and was totally stunned by the western economic sanctions which while initially weak have gotten progressively stronger and are in fact hurting now especially on the capital loans side of the house.

    While you are right--Russian troops are pulling out it is due to a multi fold reason---there are reports coming out of Moscow---they simply cannot cover the expeditionary costs for long, the social media has awakened the Russian masses to what is going on inside Russian AND surprisingly Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".

    Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.

    When the word is "thousands" it does not reflect the key armor, artillery and SF units needed inside to keep the Ukrainian Army at bay. But if the Ukraine does in fact sign the EU Assoc agreement without the Russian inputs being accepted which the EU has already said they cannot do---watch then the drive to Odessa.
    By the way there are three rumored reasons coming out of Moscow for the pull back---one is they have no o more money for an expeditionary force , two the mothers of KIA/WIA soldiers are gaining internal support traction and back to the Russian "legality thing"---he has no Duma approval for sending Russian troops into the Ukraine. The western reaction has nothing to do with the pullback and or Ukrainian negotiations--simply technical in nature.

    NOTE: If this Ukrainian military briefing map is correct Putin controls a massively large portion of south eastern Ukraine already and he will not be giving it up anytime soon if one looks at Georgia and Moldavia.

    War in Ukraine looks like this today, acc to Sec Council. If true, huge gains for rebels along border N of Novoazovsk

    pic.twitter.com/yEm0cdnUrC

    Where Putin is again miscalculating is in his use of his "gas cards"---he thinks by cutting small amounts in four countries he can get the new sanctions delayed or stopped--what he does not understand and again because of his not understanding the west--- it will drive the EU into even harder sanctions and this time aimed at Gazprom especially on the cartel violations side.

    What many in the US do not understand in those agreements is an nice Russia cash earning tactic--you sign an agreement for X amount of gas per year but do not take it because the winter was mild---hey you still have to pay for the unused amounts---nice earnings package---but here is where Gazprom is in a bind---if it does not deliver the agreed to amount on monthly basis they can be hit will penalties and they are not small.

    But the amounts being small yesterday have increased into a virtual gas "war" now.

    RUS cuts gas supplies to PL by 45% now. Expect SK to report such gas cuts soon. RUS warning ag/ fresh EU sanctions
    AP---again Putin shows his true colors ie his strategy which even with your negotiation ideas and or "trying to understand him" will not drive out of him.

    This is the four open public statement inside one week made by Putin using the term "New Russia"---think he is serious about that term?---I do.

    If you're counting, Putin said 'Novorossiya' in public again last night after lighting a candle for 'defenders'

    http://www.kremlin.ru/video/2698

    For those that somehow Russian troops will fully being leaving the Ukraine anytime soon---building military checkpoints might be a good indicator they are not leaving anytime soon.

    Russian forces started to Build Checkpoints in Herson Oblast

    https://twitter.com/rnbo_gov_ua/stat...01744643096576
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 11:16 AM.

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    AP--this is another perfect example of the concept of "altered state of reality".

    This dude a FSB officer and former leader of the DNR Girkin real name was first pulled back to Russia and now he seems to be back with Russian support.

    Was recently seen with a group of ultra nationalists near Moscow.

    He is not even Ukrainian nor from eastern Ukraine and fought in Bosnia and is wanted for war crimes there, Georgia, then Crimea and now Donetsk.

    Notice the reference to liberals wanting to throw out Putin reference.

    Strelkov: best way for people to save Russia from destruction by western agents is to stay, not support opposition
    pic.twitter.com/xsj6aavb3h

    NOTE: he seems to be concerned that over 500K will leave the Donetsk region for the other Ukraine and thus his area will not develop without workers.

    Igor Strelkov giving "closed briefing" now, favourite phrase seems to be 'Fifth Column', accuses liberals of plotting to overthrow Putin

    NOTE: this article seems to be the mantra for those Russian ultra nationalists supporting Putin.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...er-363671.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 11:43 AM.

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    AP--notice now the formal use by the Russian News Agency Interfax of the "New Russia".

    And the west really believes the south east Ukrainian annexation has not occurred?

    From Interfax today: Notice the surreal altered state of reality as if they are going to put on public trial Ukrainian officials residing in another location of the Ukraine?

    Novorossiya entity collecting documentary evidence of crimes in east Ukraine


    MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) - The Popular Front of Novorossiya (PFN) is collecting documentary evidence of crimes committed by Ukrainian servicemen, PFN Co-chairman Konstantin Dolgov said at a meeting of the committee for support to the population of south-eastern Ukraine held at the Federation Council on Thursday.

    "We are collecting material evidence... for a public tribunal to try the culprits of these crimes. Ukrainian Interior Minister Avakov and Dnipropetrovsk Region Governor Ihor Kolomoyskyi will be amongst those to stand trial publicly," Dolgov said.

    At the meeting State Duma deputy Valery Rashkin (the Communist Party) said "both sides in the conflict are guilty [of the hostilities] to one degree or another, but the degree of their responsibility is different." "The Ukrainian authorities are responsible for massive civilian casualties, and looting is the biggest charge we can bring against the insurgent forces. Our primary objective is the maximum involvement [in preparations for the public tribunal] of representatives of international human rights structures in this process so that we are not accused of bias and so that the investigation has objective and impartial results," Rashkin said.

    NOTE: notice the word "looting"--there have been countless videos and citizen reports of looting by the mercenaries which are fully documented and yet they turn it around and charge Kiev---AP another perfect example of "doublethink". The mercenaries themselves executed two of their own for looting an Metro store of alcohol.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 11:51 AM.

  8. #608
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    AP--this is another perfect example of the concept of "altered state of reality".

    This dude a FSB officer and former leader of the DNR Girkin real name was first pulled back to Russia and now he seems to be back with Russian support.

    Was recently seen with a group of ultra nationalists near Moscow.

    He is not even Ukrainian nor from eastern Ukraine and fought in Bosnia and is wanted for war crimes there, Georgia, then Crimea and now Donetsk.

    Notice the reference to liberals wanting to throw out Putin reference.

    Strelkov: best way for people to save Russia from destruction by western agents is to stay, not support opposition
    pic.twitter.com/xsj6aavb3h

    NOTE: he seems to be concerned that over 500K will leave the Donetsk region for the other Ukraine and thus his area will not develop without workers.

    Igor Strelkov giving "closed briefing" now, favourite phrase seems to be 'Fifth Column', accuses liberals of plotting to overthrow Putin

    NOTE: this article seems to be the mantra for those Russian ultra nationalists supporting Putin.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...er-363671.html
    Another quote from him during his Russian press conference;

    Strelkov: "Ukraine will remain part of the Russian world

  9. #609
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    This could be extremely funny if not coming from a Russian national TV station.

    US ruled by Nazi Aliens--and Snowden proves it-----seriously.

    US is ruled by nazi aliens, says Russian REN TV. And guess what - Snowden's files prove it.

    http://ren.tv/novosti/2014-09-11/ame...netnye-nacisty


    AP--and you seriously do not believe in "doublethink" ie "altered state of reality"?

    Seems now this press conference might have been actually recorded earlier and then this came out over the net concerning a possible hanging of the individual.

    It's very int. considering it appears that LIVE presser was in fact TAPED earlier it seems. .@Fake_MIDRF

    Seems like the Russian info war is getting a tad confused these days as to what is real and what is fake.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 12:21 PM.

  10. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This could be extremely funny if not coming from a Russian national TV station.

    US ruled by Nazi Aliens--and Snowden proves it-----seriously.

    US is ruled by nazi aliens, says Russian REN TV. And guess what - Snowden's files prove it.

    http://ren.tv/novosti/2014-09-11/ame...netnye-nacisty


    AP--and you seriously do not believe in "doublethink" ie "altered state of reality"?

    Seems now this press conference might have been actually recorded earlier and then this came out over the net concerning a possible hanging of the individual.

    It's very int. considering it appears that LIVE presser was in fact TAPED earlier it seems. .@Fake_MIDRF

    Seems like the Russian info war is getting a tad confused these days as to what is real and what is fake.
    Then this net announcement that he might have been hanged---true agitprop or real is the question? Who said Putin cannot create suspense inside Russian politics?

    #Strelkov dead?
    Hmm.. perpetuate 'the man, the myth,' & it's probably agitprop. Anyone?

    http://crimelist.ru/archives/49674-k...hronika-rossii … @AP

    pic.twitter.com/RSCUXch0r8

    Some of the running net comments on his alleged "death"----

    He threatened Putin, and was a close witness in the Crimea, so if recorded earlier there is the reason to kill him - treason - & Kremlin released it as warning

    @RobPulseNews @AP it was not long back it was said how he could go into politics! so that could be a logical conclusion. Remove all Threats
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 12:30 PM.

  11. #611
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.
    Nineteen-Eighty Four was a critique of totalitarianism generally not fascism specifically. And it, like Animal Farm, was written in response to the extremes of Stalinism, which itself was not a form of fascism. While I would normally write this off as misinterpretation, your fast and loose way with definitions and history (how many wars in Europe since 1945 have there been?) indicate to me your deliberate misreading, which best case is irresponsible and worst case dishonest.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs
    Again you are playing fast and loose with definitions.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".
    One of the characteristics of fascism is the absence of legality.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.
    Again - had you bothered reading my comments you would have realized that I've stated repeatedly that there are few, if any, things that the West can do to reverse Russia's gains and that sanctions specifically will be ineffective. I'm glad that you are in agreement now.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    For those that somehow Russian troops will fully being leaving the Ukraine anytime soon---building military checkpoints might be a good indicator they are not leaving anytime soon.
    Who said that Russian troops would be fully leaving soon? You really thinking that in the coming political stage that Russia is going to fully surrender its trump card? It's called leverage and it's a concept you have continually failed to understand. The longer the conflict, the more Russia escalates, and the more leverage it gains in any subsequent political settlement.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP--and you seriously do not believe in "doublethink" ie "altered state of reality"?
    Unlike you, I'm not quick to interpret every comment and rumor from all corners of the internet as ground, inalienable truth.

    So - again, with the Kiev pursuing a negotiated settlement, offering political concessions to the militants, and acknowledging the withdrawal of Russian forces, is the Ukrainian president a Russian stooge?
    Last edited by AmericanPride; 09-11-2014 at 02:41 PM.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.

    You AP really do need to expand your reading spectrum.

    In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.

    AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.

    So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?

    Reference expanding---AP this particular checkpoint while under Ukrainian control is fully surrounded by those "little green mice" that are suppose to be headed home----someone must have forgot to tell them about leaving the Ukraine---you will notice the "New Russian battle flag" on the T72 parked near them---AND in the photos the UA unit has no anti tank weapons.

    http://inforesist.org/okruzhennyj-bl...fotoreportazh/

    Come on AP expand your vision--it is to narrow.

    AP---reference your comments concerning internet info--by the way probably right now far more accurate than anyone is getting out of the western capitals and western media.

    HERE AP is a comment concerning the Leaving: of Russian troops by a Ukrainian former LTC who served several times in Iraq with the US and who is probably one of the better informed individuals when it comes to ground fighting info.

    Read intently his comments which I tend to agree with--Russia is simply conducting troop rotation due to the pounding some of the units took ie this is factually correct based (ie geo tagged) on the number of again AP "internet photos, reports and videos" ALL of which did not come from western mass media did they?

    Actually the western mass media you can leave at the coat check in point as they have been thoroughly driven into the ground by the Russian info war campaign. anything reported say today in Europe tends to show up in the US media 2 days later and that is what fast, medium fast, and or darn right slow?

    Earlier, President P. Poroshenko stated that, according to military intelligence data, Russia has withdrawn 70% of its troops from the Donbas.

    We are a little less optimistic. The removal of a fixed number of troops is obvious, however it is difficult to argue that the Russians do not use the ceasefire to rotate their units who got it pretty good from our troops in recent battles before the Minsk protocol was signed. And therefore, it is better to wait before celebrating. Especially because, while Russian troops are leaving the northeastern conflict zones, they are accumulating in the south, in the direction of Mariupol.

    What we don’t like even more is the flow of Russian fuel tankers coming from Russia to Donbas. God knows, hopefully the Russian occupants need the fuel to leave Ukraine, and not for [further] offensive operations
    .
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 04:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.

    You AP really do need to expand your reading spectrum.

    In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.

    AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.

    So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?

    Come on AP expand your vision--it is to narrow.

    AP---reference your comments concerning internet info--by the way probably right now far more accurate than anyone is getting out of the western capitals and western media.

    HERE AP is a comment concerning the Leaving: of Russian troops by a Ukrainian former LTC who served several times in Iraq with the US and who is probably one of the better informed individuals when it comes to ground fighting info.

    Read intently his comments which I tend to agree with--Russia is simply conducting troop rotation due to the pounding some of the units took ie this is factually correct based (ie geo tagged) on the number of again AP "internet photos, reports and videos" ALL of which did not come from western mass media did they?

    Actually the western mass media you can leave at the coat check in point as they have been thoroughly driven into the ground by the Russian info war campaign. anything reported say today in Europe tends to show up in the US media 2 days later and that is what fast, medium fast, and or darn right slow?

    Earlier, President P. Poroshenko stated that, according to military intelligence data, Russia has withdrawn 70% of its troops from the Donbas.

    We are a little less optimistic. The removal of a fixed number of troops is obvious, however it is difficult to argue that the Russians do not use the ceasefire to rotate their units who got it pretty good from our troops in recent battles before the Minsk protocol was signed. And therefore, it is better to wait before celebrating. Especially because, while Russian troops are leaving the northeastern conflict zones, they are accumulating in the south, in the direction of Mariupol.

    What we don’t like even more is the flow of Russian fuel tankers coming from Russia to Donbas. God knows, hopefully the Russian occupants need the fuel to leave Ukraine, and not for [further] offensive operations
    .
    AP---the above comments are probably correct as to the reasons for the troop rotations.

    This today from the Ukrainian NDSC as it Russian troops loses and the Ukrainians have been pretty good about their numbers being accurate---the number of killed are close to the truth if one checks the Russian "internet social media"--but then you tended to criticize the internet info did you not?

    #Russian soldiers fighting in #Ukraine: 2K killed, 8K injured. Came from 18units, 10 #Russian regions - @NSDC_ua presser

    Remember AP over 80% of all intelligence is simply open source---one just needs to understand where to look for it and how to interpret it--as simple as that.

    Basically not bad results for an unmanned, underequipped with virtually no heavy weapons, rag tag group of soldiers mixed with independent BNs.

    The Ukrainian Army simply ran out of steam since they have been fighting non stop for over five months---the ceasefire time if you really check is being used to refit, reorg and redistribute their strength.

    #Ukrainian forces in S.-E. #Ukraine that withdrew w/in the last 24hrs did so to form a unified frontline - #NSC presser

    Why the realignment AP?---they simply understand Putin's inherent desire to occupy all of the "New Russia" and to build a land corridor to the Crimea over Odessa--that is where the Russian next push will be aimed at.

    So in some aspects even the mercenaries are correct---the UA is using the ceasefire to their benefit as well.

    Plus the west needed the time for the next round of sanctions which was going to be harder to get a unified 28 block on.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 04:05 PM.

  14. #614
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    Appears the "thousands of Russian troops leaving" where in fact a rather unscheduled troop rotation due to losses.

    Plus this that came via the internet today:

    Russia hasn't ruled out a likely return to military action in the absence of political success

    http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/...astern-ukraine … #Russia #Ukraine
    J

    Just today's Russian troop movements back over the Ukrainian border.

    The #Russian_invasion continues.
    12 tanks,48 ​​BRDM,28 Ural,4air defense vehicle and 5 tankers entered via #Izvaryne today-Ukr border guards

    Heavy military machinery moves into #Ukraine & out through 3 BCPs - Izvaryne, Dovzhansky, Novoazovsk at uncontrolled border part - NSC

    Via #Beloyarovka near #Amvrosievka entered 76 military vehicles under the Russian flag

    Via #Novoazovsk entered another 10 tanks and2 BM-21 Grad.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-11-2014 at 05:14 PM.

  15. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.
    It's actually a question as indicated by the '?' at the end. Feel free to respond to any of my questions at any time - you know, in the interest of having a conversation rather than mindlessly pushing your agenda.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.
    It's not my "negoated ceasefire". Now if Russians are taking that as an opportunity to expand the separatist control of territory, then that raises serious questions about the ability of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict in the first place. You've yet to answer the question about what Ukraine has actually gained from this campaign besides billions of dollars of reconstruction costs and thousands of lives lost. Even with the revolt of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, before the direct Russian intervention, before the dissolution of the Ukrainian Army, the government had an opportunity to find a political solution. And now that Russia has virtually guaranted the survival of the separatist movement, you're just now asking what can be done about it? It's a little late for that.

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.
    That's what happens when a country fights a war it can't win. But since Ukrainians missed opportunities in February, March, and May to resolve the conflict with negotiations, they took a major risk and thus far they've been on the losing end. Now - given that Ukraine can't win a military conflict with Russia, and that the longer the conflict persists, the more leverage Russia gains, what do you propose is in Ukraine's best interests in resolving the conflict?

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?
    You tell me - it's the Ukrainian government that's making the claim about the withdrawal of Russian forces. If that doesn't square with your fantasy of fascist Russian drones overwhelming Ukraine, that's not my problem.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  16. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    It's actually a question as indicated by the '?' at the end. Feel free to respond to any of my questions at any time - you know, in the interest of having a conversation rather than mindlessly pushing your agenda.



    It's not my "negoated ceasefire". Now if Russians are taking that as an opportunity to expand the separatist control of territory, then that raises serious questions about the ability of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict in the first place. You've yet to answer the question about what Ukraine has actually gained from this campaign besides billions of dollars of reconstruction costs and thousands of lives lost. Even with the revolt of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, before the direct Russian intervention, before the dissolution of the Ukrainian Army, the government had an opportunity to find a political solution. And now that Russia has virtually guaranted the survival of the separatist movement, you're just now asking what can be done about it? It's a little late for that.



    That's what happens when a country fights a war it can't win. But since Ukrainians missed opportunities in February, March, and May to resolve the conflict with negotiations, they took a major risk and thus far they've been on the losing end. Now - given that Ukraine can't win a military conflict with Russia, and that the longer the conflict persists, the more leverage Russia gains, what do you propose is in Ukraine's best interests in resolving the conflict?



    You tell me - it's the Ukrainian government that's making the claim about the withdrawal of Russian forces. If that doesn't square with your fantasy of fascist Russian drones overwhelming Ukraine, that's not my problem.
    AP--you speak of drones---so do you fully understand that Russia "views" US drones as being a violation of the INF?---not sure if you would agree that a Reaper or Pred can carry nuclear weapons but somehow the Russians think so.

    Especially in light of the fact that Russia has successfully test fired a 3600km nuclear tipped cruise missile and the US launches what a Reaper with 4 Hellfire missiles or better yet a Pred with 2 hellfire missiles both barely having the range to reach say Minsk from Germany---come on AP even you have to see the humor in the Russian comments these days.

    AP--another example of "doublethink" or simply put "altered state of reality".

    Do you not think?

    Russia says dissatisfied with U.S. talks over arms treaty concerns---wow

    Russia gets caught in violation of the INF and they are "dissatisfied"?

    Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:25am EDT

    By Thomas Grove

    MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday it was dissatisfied with talks held with U.S. officials to address concerns that Moscow had violated a Cold War-era arms control agreement by testing a ground-launched cruise missile.

    Relations between the two countries are at their lowest since the Cold War because of Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine, and both Moscow and Washington question the other's commitment to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

    Russia argues that Washington's use of drones and other intermediate-range arms amounts to a violation of the treaty and has said that planned U.S. weapons tests in Romania and Poland may also breach the agreement.

    The talks in Moscow were attended by U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. The U.S. side had no immediate comment, said a spokesman for the U.S. embassy in Moscow.

    "We were not satisfied with their answers," said the Russian Foreign Ministry's arms control chief Mikhail Ulyanov, who represented the Russian side at the talks.

    "We would have liked our American colleagues to have formed their concerns more clearly and understandably, not in general, but concretely," he told Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

    The INF treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km (300-3,400 miles) near the end of the Cold War.

  17. #617
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    AP---since you seemed to have avoided an in depth view on Russian fascism although you did mention a few comments on the topic.

    More Russian fascism info to bring you up to date---and yet you dismissed 1984 as applying---strange move on that comment.

    Interestingly he seems to agree with my assessments of Russian fascism being a current driver of Putin.

    Putin’s Russia Becoming Fascist ‘at a Gallop,’ Shiropayev Says

    Paul Goble September 8, 2014

    Staunton, September 8 – Russia has been transformed by the war in Ukraine, with some calling this a restoration of the past and others a new turn to “Russianness,” but Aleksey Shiropayev argues that what is taking place is in fact the imposition of a fascist system “at a galloping pace.’

    On Rufabula.com, the commentator and leader of Russia’s National Democratic Alliance says that Putin’s war in Ukraine has thrown Russian back from its moves toward democracy and Europe and created the conditions for “an extremely dark Russian future.”

    Indeed, he says, in the course of the conflict with Ukraine, “Russian fascism has become a FACT,” something underscored by the Kremlin’s own behavior. When its propagandists speak of “the Kiev fascist junta, they are behaving just like when an everyday thief shouts out ‘Catch the thief!’” in order to escape justice.

    “Putin and his KGB clique,” Shiropayev says, “have decided to base their actions on everything that is most reactionary in [Russia’s] historical inheritance, on everything that during the Yeltsin era, the country was not able to escape.” Indeed, “the chief historical failure of Yeltsinism is that he did not create a NEW European Russian.”

    The hatred toward Ukraine now in evidence “has absolutely changed Russia for the worse,” he continues. “It has become clear that mass Russian consciousness remains absolutely imperialist and chauvinist” and that “Russia is prepared to consider Ukraine only as its colony or as scorched earth.”

    Indeed, he concludes, “the current hatred to the Slav Ukrainians has eclipsed even the hatred to the Chechens during the periods of the first and second Chechen wars.”

    The atmosphere in Russia has “terribly changed,” and the country is now afflicted with a kind of “mass insanity” ranging from the near universal wearing of St. George ribbons to the formation of “anti-Maidan militias” which are “the analogue of the ‘Black Hundreds’ of the beginning of the last century.”

    The Russian majority has “ACCEPTED fascization and is ready to agree to political repressions even massive ones against those who think differently and the complete suppression of the small remaining segments of freedom” in their country. In such a situation, “the development of democracy and civil society becomes impossible and even more unnecessary for SUCH a people.”

    What that kind of people needs is “a leader, terror and militarism.” It needs “hoary myths, stimulating mass hatred and mass pride,” Shiropayev says.

    What exists in Russia now is a dictatorship with “clearly marked tendencies toward totalitarianism.” Fear has returned “as a factor of social-political life,” putting those who disagree “with the anti-Ukrainian and neo-imperial policy of the Kremlin” at risk of becoming victims of “moral and political terror.”

    One result of this is that “the relationship of Russia and Ukraine will NEVER be as it was. Ukraine will never forget” the war Russia has unleashed against it. “Ukraine is lost for Russia as an empire FOREVER. From now on,” the two countries will be divided by the blood that has been shed.

    According to the Moscow commentator, “the war with Ukraine represents not so much a direct continuation of the disintegration of the USSR as the apotheosis of the agony of imperial Russia in general, an agony which beginning in 1917 has been dragging on for an entire century.”

    But another result of this war is that “Russians themselves will never be what they were. Each new day of the war with Ukraine injures Russia above all,” increasing the levels of “aggression and coarseness in society” and leaving Russia less the country of Putin alone but a nation of Putin clones and one that supports “Putin’s fascism.”

    Curing Russia from this “fascist infection will be very difficult,” Shiropayev says, because it is “always simpler to become infected than to be cured” and because “in order to get better, Russia will need to LOSE this war in a shameful fashion.”

    But that could itself entail “an enormous danger,” he continues, because “the Russia of the Putins could become transformed into the country of the Rogozins and the Barkashovs,” people who think that Putin himself is “insufficiently consistent and decisive.”

    Putin has become “a hostage of his own policy” even as he has made Russia a hostage to it, and “already he cannot turn back, he is simply forced to go further along the path of more escalation, because at his back are breathing the Dugins and Strelkovs, the legion of those” who want to drown Ukraine in blood.

    Thanks to Putin’s policies and the Russian population’s response, Russia has “thrown itself out of European civilization, out of the circle of civilized country and from now on will move closer to others above all China.” But China is “a stronger player” and Russia will find itself in a dependent position as a result, one that will recall the Mongol yoke in which it wil be “a new historical variant of the ‘Muscovite ulus.’”

    But there is an even larger consequence. “Over the last six months, the world has sharply changed and something evil has clearly come into it,” Shiropayev says. “The war of Russian against Ukraine is an obvious prelude to the Third World War,” a conflict that will be “the last war in the history of humanity” and one that Russia will have triggered.

    Many will dismiss this as improbable alarmism, he notes, but a year ago, they would have dismissed as impossible things that have happened thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shiropayev says his own conclusions deserve attention because he predicted as early as August 24, 2008 that Putin would invade Ukraine.

  18. #618
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    AP--another article this time from July 2014--that should expand your views on what is driving Putin and "it ain't NATO expansionism" as is claimed by Putin so often.

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._cold_war_arms

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    New Russian armored vehicle in eastern Ukraine--was recently called into action due to heavy Russian losses.

    https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/51...231552/photo/1

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Appears the "thousands of Russian troops leaving" where in fact a rather unscheduled troop rotation due to losses.

    Plus this that came via the internet today:

    Russia hasn't ruled out a likely return to military action in the absence of political success

    http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/...astern-ukraine … #Russia #Ukraine
    J

    Just today's Russian troop movements back over the Ukrainian border.

    The #Russian_invasion continues.
    12 tanks,48 ​​BRDM,28 Ural,4air defense vehicle and 5 tankers entered via #Izvaryne today-Ukr border guards

    Heavy military machinery moves into #Ukraine & out through 3 BCPs - Izvaryne, Dovzhansky, Novoazovsk at uncontrolled border part - NSC

    Via #Beloyarovka near #Amvrosievka entered 76 military vehicles under the Russian flag

    Via #Novoazovsk entered another 10 tanks and2 BM-21 Grad.
    Here is the Russian threat after EU sanctions---US sanctions tomorrow will also include their largest bank.

    Brigade from Dagestan will be send to Donbas tomorrow . Other Brigades in October

    https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/sta...56523457114112

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