Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Even more Russian SF/GRU units now inside the eastern Ukraine:

Russian Southern MD 22nd Independent Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (obrSpN) of GRU ID'd in Ukraine.

http://burkonews.info/22nd-independe...ating-ukraine/

pic.twitter.com/pdZQP6LpGc

[OUTLAW 09]

There has been some massive critique of the OSCE ie greatly influenced if not under the control of Russia--one will notice that every time Russia gets in a bind it wants the OSCE involved ie as monitors to prove no one was crossing their border to the Ukraine.

Yesterday as an example---over 20 hours of constant BM21/27 rocket fire and six hours of artillery fire in Donetsk and this is the SMM report for the day.

See any problems with the OSCE monitors if this is all they produce?

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/s...311809/photo/1

Then this came over the net today as well concerning the SMM.

Dear @OSCE_SMM,
get out of the streets and find a computer.
Switch on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-fBgVXH7Bo …
I hear 5 shells in 30 seconds.
Not in 1 day.

Then the constant Russia charges against the Ukraine in the OSCE especially in one then compares the SMM reporting.

From Interfax today:

18:37 OSCE gets evidence Kyiv is guilty of violating ceasefire - Russia's OSCE ambassador

This is counter to the constant reporting over the weekend from on the ground journalists and the Ukrainian reports of over 40 attacks on their troops via rockets and artillery.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems that "former vacationing Russian airborne troops" were the ones leading the fighting in the Luhansk region.

Really seems that the FSB has lost control over the opsec side.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/former-rus...6.html#uThdkNE

Interesting portion of the article especially the last sentence concerning Putin:

But a Reuters reporter travelling from Donetsk to Luhansk on a rebel-controlled road on Sunday went through 14 roadblocks, mainly manned by men in the Russian paratroopers' trademark blue berets and undershirts with horizontal blue and white stripes.

"There are no Russian troops here; Russian citizens take part, this is not banned by law," Yakut says. "But there were no Russian troops here, there aren't any and there won't be until the Russian president makes any such decision."

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems Putin has underestimated the desires of the various ultra nationalist Russian mercenary groups who went into the Ukraine to defend "ethnic Russians"--now even Russia does not control them.

The question is now--- who is wagging the tail of the dog? Or simply a case of the Revolution eating it's children.

Yesterday a large number of BM21 rocket fire attacks into the Donetsk airport came from this group below.

#Stakhanov in Luhansk announced its withdrawal from the Lugansk People's Republic and the creation of a "Cossacks Republic".

Now await the following announcements:

The "Caucasian Emirate of Donbas" and "The People's Republic of Russian Troops on Vacation" or "The Defense Contractor Republic".

Who said Putin does not have humor ---definitely not in his new military doctrine "New Generation Warfare".

[OUTLAW 09]

#Breedlove: Russia exerts great pressure along coastline (#Mariupol) so crucial to Ukraine's fiscal ability to move forwards.

#BREAKING UKRAINE MOVES MULTIPLE SA-8 GECKO IN ITS SOUTH WEST.
Expecting big things to come..
http://youtu.be/LKh2dg-Bz-o

pic.twitter.com/i2bWaIKrTV

#Breedlove: Russia's "hybrid war" strategy sees "little green men" in Crimea then E Ukraine, now signs in Moldova/Transnistria.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--here is another distinct difference between our views---I see strategy then I see the potential for at least five different orders of effects if the strategy is not though though---thoroughly thought through.

Putin in his drive to establish his neo imperialism via the Putin Doctrine relied to deeply on his experiences with the western response to both Georgia and Moldavia although I will argue that yes Bush did in fact signal a clear line in the sand that did hold Putin back.

But in the end it was basically business as usual and back to work and the overall acceptance of Putin's two enclave moves. What the west forgot and did not know was the fact that Putin quietly was testing his new doctrine---he just never used the term in public before the Duma speech.

NOW here is the serious problem for Putin since he never factored in the 3rd, 4th, or ever 5th order of effects on a strategy if not thought through to the bitter end.

We call in in politics or in international relations---"unintended consequences".

1. He did not see the massive and painful economic sanctions coming
2. if he did then he basically overestimated his economies' ability to withstand them
3. he started believing his own ego/image/propaganda
4.he did not factor in just how the Russian ultra nationalists ie neo Nazi organizations would react inside the Ukraine once they held a particular piece of ground for their "own".

Putin now has a problem---either "allow this" to continue as part and parcel of his "frozen state principle" or use the Russian Army to crack down on it thus causing potential internal Russian security problems by the same group inside this time Russia and not the Ukraine.

This is now his "unintended consequence" of the Putin doctrine using UW in his political war with the Ukraine.

#BREAKINGVIDEO THE #COSSACK_NATIONAL_GUARD SHELLING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS IN #DEBALTSEVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Kp6pH2dN8 … pic.twitter.com/5sAqrOOAAc

Notice 1) the new name---"Cossack National Guard" and 2) notice the new logo in the video--videos used for propaganda using a key signature logo have meanings for the back home crowd--AND they were the mercenaries on the MH17 ground that was behind the looting and pillaging of the dead bodies and their luggage that mirhond here claimed was due to their unique Christian "burial beliefs". Then they started actually using the stolen credit cards and smart phones--and that is what "unique"?

By the way---they were the key group behind the massive BM21 rocket fire into the Donetsk airport this weekend that hit civilian centers--which then was blamed on the UA.

Challenge to you---find for me in the web and or on YouTube Russian released and or Ukrainian released video of Ukrainian troops firing rockets or artillery on civilian targets and or firing at all during the ceasefire?

Then I have roughly 26 videos showing mercenary or Russian troops firing at civilian targets sine the signed "ceasefire".

AND who gets Blamed---the Ukrainians naturally by the Russian press and government.

So this was the "negotiated results" of what a "ceasefire"?

I would no longer call it a "ceasefire" but rather "a fire at will in place agreement".

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--you write about what was and or was not "negotiated" as if something positive was basically achieved in Minsk.

Here is the reality on the ground---so is in fact the south east Ukraine annexed or not.

Col.Lysenko @NSDC_ua spox: situation remains critical in #Donetsk

Col.Lysenko@NSDC_ua spox: terrorists shell at residential areas in #Donetsk in the guise of National Guard. 3 people killed
NOTE: this is has been a standard TTP for the mercenaries for over five months now but somehow missed by the western media.

#Latvian TV program claims #Russian embassy in #Riga recruits mercenaries 4 #Donbass separatists
http://en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/lat...#ixzz3DUKnCKy6 …

Ukraine claims rebels are trying to push army back from #Donetsk, Avdiivka, Debaltseve and Shchastia with shelling.
pic.twitter.com/Ti7uCwD0KW

Here is what Russian TV today depicted for their audience as what is being in Russia referred to as the "New Russian" territories.

Check the map and let me know what the underlying Russian "assumption" of the Minsk negotiations was?

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/s...57697067917312

Again AP even in the face of signed "negotiated" agreements by the "New Russia" reps--they continue to refuse to accept them ---so again what was achieved other than a "ceasefire" with over 80 shelling attacks and 114 Ukrainian military personnel killed and or wounded just in the last ten days?

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine "negotiates" the ceasefire, attempts to hold to the ceasefire, then passes as part of that agreement new eastern laws and then this today:

#BREAKINGNEWS CHECHEN-RUSSIAN INVASION FORCES PUSHED BACK UKR. TROOPS IN #YASINOVATAYA WITH HEAVY TANK AND GRAD FIRE.

pic.twitter.com/iCtdQZtWLl

So what was achieved through "negotiations" if the fighting is still ongoing especially using Russian troops.

Or is it the Russian attempt to fully round out the "New Russia" that will eventually slide into annexation because the separatists are taking every opportunity to ignore what they signed and the Ukraine has no leverage to assure compliance.

[OUTLAW 09]

Am changing my previous use of the term "altered state of reality" to a more fitting term "cognitive dissonance".

In this press release by the Donetsk mercenaries--it is clear to be seen.

Yes I can shell your positions with BM21s for hours over the last four days and blame you for "shelling" civilians---and I will continue to do that as I wish BUT whoa be it if you reinforce your positions especially since the "New Russia" has been declared you are no longer on Ukrainian soil.

#BreakingNews The Russian puppet DPR regime: "24 Ukrainian tanks broke through to #Donetsk #airport."

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--yesterday you did not accept my comments on what is behind the Ukrainian "negotiation tactics" where I mentioned the heavy fighting was done by a rag tag UA group of units and they were doing quite well until the Russian Army came into the Ukraine.

A compliment by the Donetsk mercenary about their "fighting abilities".


Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7
The Ukrainian army and its fighting qualities gets a rare shout out from, of all people, Strelkov-Girkin: (NOTE: the Russian leader initially of the DPR)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yi6b8...ature=youtu.be …

[OUTLAW 09]

Senior Russian DPR leader next to Girkin who was pulled out by Russia arrested today by SBU in the Donbas region.

Senior leader from Russia (ally of Igor "Strelkov") of separatists captured by SBU

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/17/7038032/ …

Even the OSCE monitoring patrols are getting shelled and there are absolutely no Ukrainian forces in the area of the shelling--will be nice to see their filed reports when that monitoring team gets back.

OSCE monitors come under fire at #MH17 crash site, #Ukraine
http://www.mid-day.com/articles/osce...-site/15606181 …
pic.twitter.com/hLzxGbLS1a

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems that the Russian social media is negating on a daily basis exactly what the Russian Army stated today concerning Russian troops inside the Ukraine either on "vacation", under "contract", or physically assigned there with their units and under no markings.

The Russian Army has an unusual definition of just what "frivolous and unprofessional is"--unprofessional is getting you soldiers killed under "contract" and or "vacation" then giving them a midnight unmarked burial and not paying the Russian death compensation because they did not get killed in a "war"---then having the FSB remove there Russian Facebook entries.

That is frivolous and unprofessional if one asks me--a truly "altered state of reality".

From RIA today:

Claims by NATO's supreme allied commander Europe over presence of Russian battalions in Ukraine are frivolous, unprofessional - Russian Army

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---you often pushed back on the "altered state of reality, or irrational vs rational Russian behavior" and you often repeated here the way forward is via negotiations vs use of force and on and on. And sanctions will not work in ending eastern Ukraine or the Crimea.

Currently we have the following Russian actions in place since the Crimea:

1. Russia negates the Budapest Memorandum
2. Russia violates the Helsinki Accords
3. Russia acts against the Russia/NATO Basic Agreements
4. Russia violate the INF on nuclear cruise missiles
5. Russian announces the "Putin Doctrine"
6. Russia openly violates signed disarmament/destruction OSCE agreements and in fact ships the tanks destined for destruction into the Ukraine
7. Russia annexes via military power the Crimea
8. Putin's threatens to be in Kiev in two weeks with his army
9. Russia send into the Eastern Ukraine over 15,000 troops, tanks and heavy artillery and heavy BM MRLs
10. Putin allows nuclear tactical exercises against Poland and the Baltics
11. Countless nuclear threats against NATO and the US muttered by countless Duma and FM officials
12. Russian long range bombers simulated nuclear cruise missile launches against the northern US-twice now
13. Russian "allows" tactical nuclear capable artillery units to move into the eastern Ukraine
14. Russia stations TU33 nuclear capable bombers in the Crimea---EXACTLY 200KMs from NATO territory

AND the list goes on and on--so it begs the question--WHO is really threatening WHOM?

Then this reported in conversations between Putin and the Ukrainian President:

Putin: Russian Troops could be in Vilnius, Warsaw, and Bucharest in Two Days http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...aw-in-two-days …
pic.twitter.com/tuYSZgqjBU

So again AP--"rational and or irrational" Russian actions/behaviors?

And AP---again "negotiations" are to achieve exactly what again?

And again AP---you initially claimed this was all about "spheres of influence and buffers"--still think that?

[mirhond]

Yep - and I have stated from the start that the West and Ukraine were severely unprepared for Russia's campaign. When it's recognized that one is in a losing position and can't catch up without significant losses, it's better to make a quick end of it and cut your losses. Every loss in pursuit of defeat is a waste.

But it's interesting now that after your many months of your crusade to demonize Russia, you are willing to write off eastern Ukraine and Crimea and hand it over to them in the name of "realpolitik". Had the pro-West faction in Ukraine's government negotiated an end to Ukraine's internal turmoil in say November, March, or April, Ukraine would not be in this position in the first place.

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian!

[OUTLAW 09]

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian!

let us see comrade mirhond exactly just how good your poor Russian is actually?

if your Russian is as good as you claim but it is really not then you can check this Russian mother's web site and explain to the mothers, wives and children--JUST how they fathers, and son's "DIED" while on vacation and or under contract in the Ukraine.

BUT WAIT--they do not know anything about them BECAUSE the great Russian Army hides them on "vacation"?

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

so comrade read it and weep for the countless killed Russian soldiers who were buried in unmarked graves or in the middle of the night or not buried at all while their bodies lay somewhere in the Ukraine not recovered-AND never received compensation because they were not in a "war" where they?

what a great Russian military tradition--getting killed and buried in an unmarked grave somewhere on "vacation"--wow

--and you do not care if Russians are getting killed or wounded for who--Putin the greatest fascist of all times inside Russia-- the so-called motherland of Lenin and Communism---come on comrade mirhond you falling down on your abilities here

not serving makes you then someone who "dodged" Russian military service does it not comrade?--what did you do-- pay a typical bribe to not serve?

comrade mirhond--3500 killed Russian "vacationers and contractors" AND THAT IS A VICTORY?--come on mirond get real

by the way is Putin not violating Russian law by not getting Duma approval to send Russian "vacationers" into the Ukraine?

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

[OUTLAW 09]

hey comrade mirhond--just how are those sanctions working for you--heard the latest Moscow joke?

"What is the new Russian 1 Euro?"

Answer---the Russian 50 Rubel bill---funny right mirhond?

[OUTLAW 09]

Critical turn of events in the Ukraine if proven true--the following has not be verified.

Breaking ? RT @ISNJH: #Russian Il76 did airborne drop over Donestk territory forces.

Appears to in fact be correct--if so a major Russian escalation not de-escalation that Putin keeps talking about.

BREAKING UPDATE The #Russian airborne drop is made to deploy forces to seize #Donetsk airport https://www.facebook.com/burkonews/p...95300277284518 …

BREAKING Just hours ago #Russian air force Il76 dropped airborne forces in #Donetsk region w support of 2 fighter jets. Flew back to #Russia

Currently report of Russian aircraft over Donestk should be viewed as strictly #rumint until further confirmation.

Russian troops continue nonstop violation of Ukrainian ceasefire.
Stakhanov
http://youtu.be/gLput4YyD6c pic.twitter.com/L6blAE2Bd7

[OUTLAW 09]

Are Russian mercenaries and Russian troops preparing for a full scale offensive after the "ceasefire" is declared null and void---notice no further POW exchanges.

Russian troops need to fully build out the "New Russia" and push the UA out of that "New Russia".

Operational data from Information Resistance from 17/9:

In the combat zone in the Donbas, activity has been observed of the Russian-terrorist troops ignoring the so-called “ceasefire.” The adoption on September 16th, by the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament], of the laws of the special order of self-government in certain areas of Donbas, and amnesty, currently have had no affect on a change in the intensity of the fighting.

The most difficult situation persists in the areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Stanytsia Luhansk, Shchastya, Popasna, Verkhnya [Upper] Krynka, Nyzhnya [Lower] Krynka, Zhdanivka.

Under terrorist attacks, the transformer substation in Shchastya was hit and electricity is now out.

In the district of the bombarded airport in Donetsk a marked accumulation of units of the regular army of the Russian Federation [RF] has been observed. Near this locality the enemy creates a layered air defense system.

Simultaneously, we recorded the transfer of several pieces of military aviation, without Russian Air Force markings, to border airfields on the territory of the Russian Federation. According to our data, these machines are being prepared for transportation to Donetsk in the form of “Air Novorossiya” [Air New Russia] in the event of the displacement of Ukrainian units from the territory of the airport.

In Luhansk Oblast [region] LNR [Luhansk People's Republic] insurgents and RF units are preparing to resume active operations and to continue fighting. Over the last 2-3 days they conducted a series of rearrangements and focused some offensive combat groups with armored vehicles in the north-eastern part of the ATO and north of Luhansk; previously from Russia several convoys of ammunition and fuel were delivered. In the district of Luhansk mobile Russian radar is deployed, and gangs actively saturate air defenses.

In many ways, with the help of Russian specialists in the Donbas, insurgents create not only a radar field controlled by them, but also a layered air defense system.

At the same time during the past few days the passage of columns of military equipment from the territory of the Russian Federation into the Donbas has not been recorded.

In the coastal areas (Novoazovsk-Mariupol) there is a relative lull. However, there is an active transfer of Russian troops to the north of Mariupol.

[OUTLAW 09]

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian!

mirhond---care to comment?

On August 17, Kuzmin's family was informed by a military commissar that he had been killed by a Ukrainian shell landing on Russian territory. Oksana said that the commissar himself admitted that he did not believe this story.

After interviewing Oksana, the BBC team set off towards Astrakhan. On leaving her village, they were stopped by traffic police, who checked their boot and IDs.

It was in Astrakhan that they were attacked and later, while at the police station, stripped of their data.

Rosenberg writes:
Fortunately we had uploaded the interview to London earlier in the day.

But why would anyone set out to destroy our material and to silence the sister of a Russian soldier?

Oksana is no terrorist, no political opponent of the Russian government.

All she wants to know is the truth about Konstantin's death - where exactly he died and how - and ensure that the army does not turn its back on her dead brother.

"He loved Russia, he was so patriotic," Oksana tells me.

"I just don't understand how they can forget a soldier like him. He was killed, he was buried and he was forgotten."

[OUTLAW 09]

Another GRU team inside the Ukraine: In Russian from social media

Russian GRU special Unit from Prokhladnyy/Kabardino-Balkaria is in Donetsk

https://m.facebook.com/bochkala/posts/803844843001240 …

pic.twitter.com/2GNUmBjo4O

New GRU aspect:

Yes, honey trap ! She is also a GRU officer, and a Nazi.
pic.twitter.com/SFA6aiB618