Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---another example of the differences between us---I have worked the open source humint world for years and know from experience the importance of it as a triggering indicator and I also know from experience over 80% of all actual intel comes via open source-why because a number of my successes at the national reporting level came from simple open sources.

If you had been blogging as much as I do you would have known that recently the CIA released over 300 declassed articles they had written and two were extremely good on the value of open source to the intel field and cycle.

Notice you pushed back and questioned the recent reporting of Russian SF being in Berkut uniforms and killing on the Maidan.

Work open source long enough and you will find other examples that indicate Russia WAS FULLY involved during the winter Maidan and were behind a large number of the killings there.

WHAT I have personally been impressed by is a group of European bloggers who were there from the beginning of the Crimea until now who are consistently beating anything the US intelligence community can do and they are worming through Russia social media far faster than the FSB and are using analysis tools in new and innovative ways---no American blogging scene is a good right now as this group is.

ANOTHER Russian militia person in a Berkut uniform on the Maidan identified by social media and facial recognition programs available to anyone on the open source side of the house.

SO AP---begs the question--if private individuals are achieving this level of identification JUST where are the western intel services and what is it they are not wanting to talk about.

IMO they know the depth of Russian involvement and do not want it known out of fear that Joe Public would demand more from their political leadership ie the US/UK/EU/NATO.

#Russia's Militia was suppressing #Maidan demonstration in #Kyiv in December, in Ukr uniform.

http://podrobnosti.ua/accidents/2014/10/03/996391.html …

pic.twitter.com/J3LplTAk29

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--we talked here about being "suckered in"---if you really go back and reread the social media reporting of polls conducted during the initial separatist takeover and then in the following months--a large majority of the Donbas actually did not want to join Russia--AND the Ukrainian government knew that.

If one knows that now roughly 55% of those Donbas refugees "fleeing for protection to Russia" now "want" to return even with their homes destroyed and factories destroyed---it is just a further indicator that in reality they never did want to "join" Russia.

If then you look at the public interviews of Girkin the Russian initial leader who was kicked out by Russia---he often complained about the lack of support from the local population---there has never been more than 1-2K local fighters during this whole event.

If I know I cannot militay hold the Donbas--is not then a "suckering in" strategy a win win---I get massive sectorial sanctions on Putin which in the end weakens him politically--I get the global support for having Russians inside my country and I damage the Russian Army which in fact has occurred for all three points. And I get western aid in the rebuilding phase when all is said and done.

Then in the Minsk agreements I apply more pressure to those remaining behind to either choose me or the separatists by showing that a rebuild/reform can only go forward under the Ukrainian flag.

Ukrainian leadership knows over the long haul the local population will at some point kick out the separatists by either moving to the west and or physically stating enough is enough. And it does appear in interviews the local population that are still in Donetsk is getting the message and openly talking out against the separatists and are just now realizing how badly they fell for Russian propaganda in face of all the destruction in the "creation of New Russia".

These are the first indicators that the "suckering in policy" is in fact starting to work.

Dear civilization, we have arrived! #RUS terrorists in #Yesaulivka, #Ukraine brought back quitrent. Demand at least 10kg potatoes per house.

#Russia terrorist on #donbas : "90% r Rus citizens. Where are the locals?" #Ukraine
http://politikum.in.ua/post/3oct2014...ut-v-upor.html …
pic.twitter.com/WUeleV2Im8

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears the key central battle of the "New Russia" war is being fought at the Donetsk airport--it is turning into a meat grinder for the Russia troops and mercenaries with their losses in the hundreds in wounded and killed.

The UA has been highly successful in defending the airport and or retaking parts after losing them and has been successful in maintaining a resupply effort to the troops there. Even in the face of constant "ceasefire violations" from artillery and MRLS shellings which were suppose to have stopped as the Russians indicated in their press releases?

In yday's battle for #Donetsk airport 3 Ukrainian servicemen died,2 went missing when Russians/separatists arrived in tanks disguised as UA

Longest video version so far (38 minutes).
Russian army forces' failed storming of #Donetsk #airport on 30.9.2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUt1qwtGog4

Russian army special forces commandos from South Ossetia and Abkhazia mainly involved.
"If the duck waves its flag, it is what it says."

#ATO fighters #DonetskAirport per social networks, seized T-64 tank during yesterday's assault
http://62.ua/news/634427
pic.twitter.com/9aCAfv3trl

Fight Oct 2 #DonetskAirport commandos destroyed Ru troops, killed 100's of fighters
http://unian.net/politics/991960-v-b...chevidets.html
pic.twitter.com/VXMhM7l8ph

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--we talked here about being "suckered in"---if you really go back and reread the social media reporting of polls conducted during the initial separatist takeover and then in the following months--a large majority of the Donbas actually did not want to join Russia--AND the Ukrainian government knew that.

If one knows that now roughly 55% of those Donbas refugees "fleeing for protection to Russia" now "want" to return even with their homes destroyed and factories destroyed---it is just a further indicator that in reality they never did want to "join" Russia.

If then you look at the public interviews of Girkin the Russian initial leader who was kicked out by Russia---he often complained about the lack of support from the local population---there has never been more than 1-2K local fighters during this whole event.

If I know I cannot militay hold the Donbas--is not then a "suckering in" strategy a win win---I get massive sectorial sanctions on Putin which in the end weakens him politically--I get the global support for having Russians inside my country and I damage the Russian Army which in fact has occurred for all three points. And I get western aid in the rebuilding phase when all is said and done.

Then in the Minsk agreements I apply more pressure to those remaining behind to either choose me or the separatists by showing that a rebuild/reform can only go forward under the Ukrainian flag.

Ukrainian leadership knows over the long haul the local population will at some point kick out the separatists by either moving to the west and or physically stating enough is enough. And it does appear in interviews the local population that are still in Donetsk is getting the message and openly talking out against the separatists and are just now realizing how badly they fell for Russian propaganda in face of all the destruction in the "creation of New Russia".

These are the first indicators that the "suckering in policy" is in fact starting to work.

Dear civilization, we have arrived! #RUS terrorists in #Yesaulivka, #Ukraine brought back quitrent. Demand at least 10kg potatoes per house.

#Russia terrorist on #donbas : "90% r Rus citizens. Where are the locals?" #Ukraine
http://politikum.in.ua/post/3oct2014...ut-v-upor.html …
pic.twitter.com/WUeleV2Im8

More internal "debates" between local Ukrainians and the mercenaries within the New Russia.

There are demonstrations and even armed scuffles between different groups and the local population in #Sverdlovsk, #Luhansk

AND then this has been reported--seems the mercenaries and the Russian troops are having a few "debates" among themselves.

On Oct 4, #Luhansk rebels fought Russian army for an hour at #Sverdlovka town, said governor Moskal. Reasons unclear.

http://inforesist.org/pod-luganskom-

What is interesting is that those that are very pro Russian have in fact never been greatly supported by the locals who they claim they are fighting for.

Yesterday in Donetsk they held what was billed as a major political rally celebrating the New Russian birthday by the separatists and only 50 people showed up waving one flag---the separatists claimed thousands would be coming but in the end there were barely 50.

Then this article today in the NYTs which seems to indicate that there are "others" outside of Putin who are in "an altered state of reality".

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/wo...ref=world&_r=0

They want to nationalize the industries and go to collective farming---first of all collective farming worked absolutely nowhere in the entire Soviet Union and former Eastern Bloc and are they then going to pay the owners for those factories because once nationalized because there is no bank who will loan them money to rebuild when the legal ownership is in doubt nor who is going to buy their products ie coal that is vastly over priced at 300 USD per ton vs say South African at 85 USD per ton. It was only 300 due to the subsidies from the Ukrainian government the oligarchs had negotiated in the past which is typical for Soviet style factories and or businesses.

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears the key central battle of the "New Russia" war is being fought at the Donetsk airport--it is turning into a meat grinder for the Russia troops and mercenaries with their losses in the hundreds in wounded and killed.

The UA has been highly successful in defending the airport and or retaking parts after losing them and has been successful in maintaining a resupply effort to the troops there. Even in the face of constant "ceasefire violations" from artillery and MRLS shellings which were suppose to have stopped as the Russians indicated in their press releases?

In yday's battle for #Donetsk airport 3 Ukrainian servicemen died,2 went missing when Russians/separatists arrived in tanks disguised as UA

Longest video version so far (38 minutes).
Russian army forces' failed storming of #Donetsk #airport on 30.9.2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUt1qwtGog4

Russian army special forces commandos from South Ossetia and Abkhazia mainly involved.
"If the duck waves its flag, it is what it says."

#ATO fighters #DonetskAirport per social networks, seized T-64 tank during yesterday's assault
http://62.ua/news/634427
pic.twitter.com/9aCAfv3trl

Fight Oct 2 #DonetskAirport commandos destroyed Ru troops, killed 100's of fighters
http://unian.net/politics/991960-v-b...chevidets.html
pic.twitter.com/VXMhM7l8ph

The airport seems to be turning into the "Alamo" although this "Alamo" seems to be getting re-enforced daily and is "winning".

So the "others" trying to take it over seemed to have now resorted to heavy stand off shelling with MRLSs and artillery which is in fact so inaccurate it is hitting the civilian population.

The Ukrainian army reports 2 assaults on #Donetsk #airport over the day.
I can see and hear #nonstop artillery/missile fire, every 2-5 mins.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears Moscow has a new name for mercenaries that are continuing to shell civilians and Ukrainian positions---even when they have Russian troops on the ground with them.

A new force turned up in East #Ukraine - "uncontrolled groups" apparently do the shelling and shooting. Unlike the controlled rebels. Easy

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears now that Gorbatschow has swung over and is now fully supporting Putin's moves in the Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Putin's verbal attacks on the US.

Looks like he is attempting to rewrite his own history.

Taken from Focus Online today:

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschl...d_4180973.html

Gorbatschow: USA und ihr Fhrungsanspruch sind Seuche

Er gilt als einer der "Vter der Deutschen Einheit" und war bisher eher fr seine prowestlichen Haltung bekannt. Nun jedoch schlgt Michail Gorbatschow ganz andere Tne an. Er lobt Putins Vorgehen im Ukraine-Konflikt und schiet scharf gegen die USA. Wegen deren Fhrungsanspruch drohe ein neuer Kalter Krieg.

[OUTLAW 09]

There were two small comments floating on the web today that if true are critical---it appears from around Putin's circle and Putin himself that--

1. he is going to accept the hit to his economy regardless how bad it gets

2. his goal is in fact New Russia and if the Ukraine is destroyed along the way so be it

3. he is now confident that NATO/EU/US will do nothing even if he pushes for the Odessa land corridor grab

In some aspects this is the same thinking being pushed by the Russian ultra nationalists that in fact are "fascists".

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears that the Ukraine is signaling via bloggers to Russia they are prepared for an Odessa land grab move before winter sets in as the temps in some areas are now at freezing and falling.

Ukr. military about a possible Russian invasion from #Crimea: "We have enough resources to meet the enemy and to give an adequate response."

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears there are now more Russian troops inside the Ukraine than the initial 1K many were talking about and more are arriving via convoys.

around 3,000 Russian troops in #Ukraine’s #Donbas
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/0...raines-donbas/ …
pic.twitter.com/6F749ZFp8i

MASSIVE #RUSSIA CONVOY geo-located by @nvr_cry_wolf & @djp3tros S bypass Millerovo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK-we1tuoNw …
pic.twitter.com/KItzW44nLR

[OUTLAW 09]

Has Russian been actively preparing for war the last two years?

An interesting article on the topic.

http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comm...-preparing-war

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the Ukrainian Army has been actually using the ceasefire to rearm, refit, and reposition it forces along a better line of defense than existed when the Russian troops rolled in.

Seeing, what #Ukraine moves into #Donbas, it seems the war has just begun ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU8GKBnT4x4

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the Russian government does not understand that the fighting and shelling around the Donetsk airport is being conducted by Russian mercenaries and Russia troops who are basically shelling and ground attacking in their attempts to retake the airport from the UA ever since the so called "ceasefire" went into effect.

The last time I checked there has been not a single Ukrainian Army attack outside the perimeter of the airfield.

From Interfax today:
16:42 PUTIN'S MEETING WITH RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIALS ADDRESSED EXTREME FRAGILITY OF CEASEFIRE REGIME IN UKRAINE, ESPECIALLY IN DONETSK AIRPORT AREA - PESKOV

This is an another example of the Putin "altered state of reality" meaning Putin and his SC are "concerned about the ceasefire" and this comes in---it seems Putin and his Security Council "just cannot" get those mercenaries under control.

#BreakingVideo Russian terrorist/army unit attacks #Kurakhove, 30 km WEST of #Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L22XJCxYtxU …

[OUTLAW 09]

So....Putin and his Security Council "discussed the weak ceasefire"---if they were so concerned then you would think this would then not be coming in on the net today.

BBC News - #Ukraine crisis: #Dnipropetrovsk prepares for rebel advance http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29503377 …

[OUTLAW 09]

the OSCE just cannot seem to find the right balance as they are really suppose to be neutral in the Ukraine--but again many rumors concerning their being to tight with Russia have been emerging.

It looks like they are staying in a Donetsk hotel where the Russian mercenaries are also staying.

This is roof of Park Inn hotel by #Radisson in #Doentsk where #OSCE monitors are residing. Are they impaired?

Seems there are eight highly trained individuals not sure who they belong to on the mercenary side also staying in the same hotel.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the Ukrainian Army has been actually using the ceasefire to rearm, refit, and reposition it forces along a better line of defense than existed when the Russian troops rolled in.

Seeing, what #Ukraine moves into #Donbas, it seems the war has just begun ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU8GKBnT4x4

From the Ukrainian NDSC today---appears the UA is now ready for a fight.

The question begs now to be asked---does Russia risk far more sanctions and no French carrier if they roll more troops into the Ukraine as this time it appears the UA is better positioned and better equipped than when they rolled in the first time? A plus is a small unnoticed fact that there has been a far deeper guerrilla war being waged by the UA via their SF, SBU and airborne units.

The Donetsk airport battle was in fact a defining moment and provided the UA some needed successes and in fact they beat up on some of the best mercenary units that are in the Donetsk.

NSDC: "Ukr. military did not retreat for a single meter [...] our military, starting w/ Sept. 5, defend the same positions"

Up to 10 #Russian armoured vehicles brought to #Donetsk airport as reinforcement. Ukr forces repelled 2attacks https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymc...70391349756191 …

Ukrainian soldiers, defending the frontline in #Nikishyne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlGWRhbMbw …
Use of T-64 for indirect fire! ...
pic.twitter.com/BZejgKi314

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the Russian government does not understand that the fighting and shelling around the Donetsk airport is being conducted by Russian mercenaries and Russia troops who are basically shelling and ground attacking in their attempts to retake the airport from the UA ever since the so called "ceasefire" went into effect.

The last time I checked there has been not a single Ukrainian Army attack outside the perimeter of the airfield.

From Interfax today:
16:42 PUTIN'S MEETING WITH RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIALS ADDRESSED EXTREME FRAGILITY OF CEASEFIRE REGIME IN UKRAINE, ESPECIALLY IN DONETSK AIRPORT AREA - PESKOV

This is an another example of the Putin "altered state of reality" meaning Putin and his SC are "concerned about the ceasefire" and this comes in---it seems Putin and his Security Council "just cannot" get those mercenaries under control.

#BreakingVideo Russian terrorist/army unit attacks #Kurakhove, 30 km WEST of #Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L22XJCxYtxU …

Russia continues amassing troops at the Ukraine's border. VIDEO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11cROvKE8uA …

#BreakingNews Russian forces attacked the frontline town of #Zolote with Grad missiles today,killing one civilian and injuring several more.

On the side of #terrorists are fighting former convicts. Documents from wrecked tanks.
pic.twitter.com/XF0KYT4Zbo

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an interesting set of statistics if accurate.

Appears since 5 September ie yesterday 500 bodies were brought in to the Donetsk morgue---if 25 or so were civilians---WHO are the others?

The numbers tend to match those numbers that the UA stated were being killed (mercenary/Russian troops) during the various airport battles.

#Report: 30 people brought to the #Donetsk morgue today,500 since September,5th.
Less than 25 of those civilians acc. to the city administr

[OUTLAW 09]

From the Ukrainian NDSC today---appears the UA is now ready for a fight.

The question begs now to be asked---does Russia risk far more sanctions and no French carrier if they roll more troops into the Ukraine as this time it appears the UA is better positioned and better equipped than when they rolled in the first time? A plus is a small unnoticed fact that there has been a far deeper guerrilla war being waged by the UA via their SF, SBU and airborne units.

The Donetsk airport battle was in fact a defining moment and provided the UA some needed successes and in fact they beat up on some of the best mercenary units that are in the Donetsk.

NSDC: "Ukr. military did not retreat for a single meter [...] our military, starting w/ Sept. 5, defend the same positions"

Up to 10 #Russian armoured vehicles brought to #Donetsk airport as reinforcement. Ukr forces repelled 2attacks https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymc...70391349756191 …

Ukrainian soldiers, defending the frontline in #Nikishyne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlGWRhbMbw …
Use of T-64 for indirect fire! ...
pic.twitter.com/BZejgKi314

NOTE:: the battle video with the T64--check the quality of the uniforms and weapons being carried by the infantry---it appears that in fact the UA has been resupplied by someone and quickly--and they acted as well trained infantry--one carried a silenced assault rifle.

[OUTLAW 09]

"Ceasefire results"

One month of Ukraine 'ceasefire': violated by rebels 1200 times, 56 Ukraine soldiers & 32 civilians killed, @MFA_Ukraine says

Novosvitlivka, Lugansk reg, Russian tanks shelled houses at point-blank range.
http://youtu.be/puEuWFCsIY0?list=UUh...I_nMglyOv81K9Q …

In #Donetsk close to Spartak stadium #Russian terrorists' mortar or artillery unit got whacked just recently. Lingering explosions heard